Hurricane Dorian

[Badgers01]

gosh this is really shocking re Josh , I really know him quite well and have spent a lot of time with him , I know him through a friend in LA who I have just spoken too people are genuinely worried for his wellbeing - that said he is a tough guy who is resourceful so one has to be optimistic...

[Bobafet]

Latest images

[Man With Beard]

Just looked through the missing person's list for Abaco - must be more than 1000 names. If it had happened in the US, it would have had 24/7 coverage. What is wrong with our media? 

[Ice Day]

3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Just looked through the missing person's list for Abaco - must be more than 1000 names. If it had happened in the US, it would have had 24/7 coverage. What is wrong with our media? 

The Bahama's are clearly not newsworthy enough!?  I just don't get it either.  I think the true enormity will start to be seen from daybreak tomorrow now the storm has passed - it's going to be a tragic tale.

[bluearmy]

apparently this is from abaco taken today 

[bluearmy]

Looking at ec op, it has gusts up to 187mph as Dorian passes adjacent to palm beach (90 mph at the coast)

wind speeds drop slowly thereafter but the state coasts will still take gusts around 100mph as the storm heads north towards s carolina 

Landfall is charleston thurs pm with gusts around 105 mph 

[Lauren]

The devastation is terrible, I don't know why this isn't headline news. If this was mainland US it would be!

Seeing the water and windforce it certainly makes you worry for the I'll, elderly and woefully underprepared.

[Paul Sherman]

Hoping there might be some good news re Josh

70 People have been found at the School where his last known tweet was from, Just waiting on the Names from there

[AderynCoch]

I haven't seen devastation like this following a hurricane since the Gulf Coast got wrecked by Katrina. It also reminds me of Homestead, Florida after Andrew hit. 

Shocking.

[Guest]

42 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Just looked through the missing person's list for Abaco - must be more than 1000 names. If it had happened in the US, it would have had 24/7 coverage. What is wrong with our media? 

Each day (at least in the UK) editors of mainstream TV, websites and paper media (almost all in London) get together over an expensive and liquid lunch to co-ordinate tomorrows stories how they are framed and how they are prioritised. Important new stories might be sat on and saved for a more auspicious time, while other matters might be 'pushed' in accordance with the accepted agenda. It is all orchestrated with a view to manipulation and control of the common folks. In some cases (such as the disappearing drone over Gatwick last December), it turns out that the mysterious drone pilots were acting on behalf a government agency in order to 1) create a news story and cause a distraction and 2) Prepare the groundwork for anti-drone legistlating to be more easily passed.

Major wars and confilcts in various parts of Africa, the Middle East and South-East Asia (I dont mean Hong Kong with has had plenty of coverage) have been almost completely ignored. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ongoing_armed_conflicts

 

[SMU]

Dorian gathering strength once again - eye beginning to clear - Moving NNW

NHC going for CAT 2 however based on the sat presentation it could be another under estimation....

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Dorian gathering strength once again - eye beginning to clear - Moving NNW

NHC going for CAT 2 however based on the sat presentation it could be another under estimation....

According to the experts, once it gains some momentum and moves over new, untapped waters it will re-intensify. We should see the eye becoming more defined and wind speeds picking up into tomorrow. At this time of year the water near the East Coast will be relatively warm all the way up past NY, and will provide ample fuel for growth. 

The models have been pretty accurate so far, but will re-strengthening have an effect on its course in any way?

Edited September 3, 2019 by Guest

[SMU]

17 minutes ago, nwextremeweather said:

According to the experts, once it gains some momentum and moves over new, untapped waters it will re-intensify. We should see the eye becoming more defined and wind speeds picking up into tomorrow. At this time of year the water near the East Coast will be relatively warm all the way up past NY and is will provide ample fuel for growth. 

The models have been pretty accurate so far, but will re-strengthening have an effect on its course in any way?

The models when each run initialises will make adjustments in the track due to the changes from run to run between the all important variables of which there are many - 

Difference in initialised pressure V T6 forecast, Differences in motion & track V forecast - also crucially how the steering currents is being handled as well as how are features that may well impact the steering currents - how are they being modelled - so there are many variables as well things that cannot be forecast like land interaction & how this jogs & wobbles track.

The reason Dorian has had some much coverage around its track is of course the fact that even a 30-40 mile correction west would have large scale impacts on Florida.

Luckily the saving grace was when she was stalled out over Freeport the 'jog/ wobble' that we saw as she moved offshore was directly North which probably had a small impact net maybe 20 miles further East.

 

Speaking generally if hurricanes develop deeper than models then they lift out poleward faster / earlier - so should she redevelop that may pull her away from the Carolinas faster...

For reference current pressure is 958MB 

Edited September 3, 2019 by Steve Murr

[AderynCoch]

Dorian is currently slightly east of the forecast track, so a Florida landfall is even less likely now (the eye could definitely come ashore somewhere in the Carolinas though).

However, for the US right now the size of the wind field is more important than the exact track. The storm only seems to be getting bigger, which will not only increase the likelihood of strong winds along the coast but also the severity of the storm surge (which will probably be the biggest danger for the US). 

Edited September 3, 2019 by AderynCoch

[Allseasons-Si]

I just do not get it...

whether it be a small island like the Bahamas or mainland USA,it still should be newsworthy,it's loss of life for Christ sake's

get a grip American's

it's the same in the UK to some extent when there is a storm/named storm,sod the north but the south will be on the news.

i do hope Josh is ok,please,please,please

Edited September 3, 2019 by Allseasons-si

[matt111]

 

[Allseasons-Si]

Just now, matt111 said:

 

THANK GOD......

[Badgers01]

 Great news

[Ice Day]

3 minutes ago, matt111 said:

 

That is fantastic news 

[Frosty hollows]

Let's hope others are accounted for now. The images coming back from the Bahamas are truly shocking

[snowrye]

Great news re josh

[matt111]

And from the man himself...

 

Edited September 3, 2019 by matt111

[ChezWeather]

Not looking good 

 

[Man With Beard]

53 minutes ago, matt111 said:

 

Thank goodness for that. Hopefully he'll decide he'll never be in a more severe hurricane and retire. 

Really hope that missing person's list is highly exaggerated 

Now on to the US and the conundrum on whether Dorian will reintensify before the US landfall 

[Allseasons-Si]

John Humphress at the east coast of Florida,looks pretty windy there already.

https://www.severestudios.com/livechase/