Hurricane Dorian

[summer blizzard]

UKMO similar to Euro again, peaks at 959mb early next Tuesday.

[Wilxy]

06z has tracked it a tad further south! Orlando looks to be a direct hit according to this but as with ever with hurricanes the track can shift significantly! 

[Wilxy]

ECM has the storm going straight through the spine of Florida!

[Iceberg]

I've been watching Dorian with interest. 

a very complicated system.

started off life very small but with a nice llcc.

then some intensification.

then last 24hrs though has seen him struggle..the dry air has been an issue as the cdo has been staggered pretty small. The outflow has been extensive thanks in part to the very good circulation but  without the inflow he has struggled to keep unwell fed with frequent bouts of dry air.

Recon has found  this up and down status.

On visual he has looked good thanks to the good circulation. But radar and ir has shown a pretty ugly system at times.

Going forward the path is showing a strong beeline to central Florida and then a stall and turn due north. Some globals showing a path into the gom then the sharp turn North into the panhandle border. Some i.e 00z ecm make the turn North whilst over florida.

It's worth ignoring models imo to some degree and looking at climatology...central Florida hits are rare due to the recurve. Just imo but I would favour the ridge weakness sooner even than ecm stalling the system more and then moving North maybe just offshore before a North Florida \ South Carolina hit.

The last hr or so has seen a 're wrapping of convection around the centre so a period of intensification is very likely today\tonight.

Also Dorian isn't a small system anymore. It's growing and once inflow gets going with the ssts a large system might well develop.

Certainly the first serious storm of the year and possibly a MAJOR headache.

[Ice Day]

1 hour ago, Iceberg said:

Certainly the first serious storm of the year and possibly a MAJOR headache.

Edited OP to save space!

Excellent appraisal there Iceberg. Whilst I agree that climatology is always useful in situations such as this, consideration also needs to be given to the increasingly erratic global weather patterns. In summary, expect the unexpected!

Edited August 29, 2019 by Ice Day

[Iceberg]

Latest ir and visual from the slider shows some towers to the nw of the centre. 

Iceday. I agree but still expect a shift in models. :) they should get a good handle in the  next 48 hrs.  

[Ice Day]

1 minute ago, Iceberg said:

Latest ir and visual from the slider shows some towers to the nw of the centre. 

Iceday. I agree but still expect a shift in models. they should get a good handle in the  next 48 hrs.  

Definitely, it's going to be fascinating viewing as always. I suspect this thread will be getting busy in the days ahead!

[Iceberg]

Two recon passes one the last hr both 986\987 winds at 70kts .

should be sub 980 by tomorrow morning. 

[summer blizzard]

Eye is down to 5 miles but is concentranic so we may see an ERC overnight with RI afterwards.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Iceberg]

44 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Eye is down to 5 miles but is concentranic so we may see an ERC overnight with RI afterwards.

Centre looks to be increasing its organisation quite quickly on current slide almost a ring of deeper convection now around the outer eye. Recon are finding more sub 990mb readings over a wider area.

Inflow is increasing as well under a decent comma..Still weak on the East side but the best he's been 

[cheese]

Looks like after a 13 year hurricane hiatus, things have returned to normal for Florida.

[karyo]

The UKMO take Dorian do Gulf of Mexico. Quite a change from its earlier output.

[snowrye]

National hurricane centre have upgraded Dorian, cat 4 at landfall

[Bobafet]

Latest 

 

[Iceberg]

Slider continues to show quick organisation over the last 10mins   Some really deep convention firing on the west side. But the eye is fully enclosed. 

Recon have found 985mb and missed the centre on that pass. 

 

[Mr Frost]

1 hour ago, cheese said:

Looks like after a 13 year hurricane hiatus, things have returned to normal for Florida.

Indeed - was just reading these tweets below.

Plus some interesting facts/stats on previous hurricanes.

Edited August 29, 2019 by Mr Frost

[tinybill]

been watching  you tube  there are in the thinking it could go  up the coast

[Bobafet]

Good article on bbc news

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-49515022

[Iceberg]

8 hours ago, Iceberg said:

 Just imo but I would favour the ridge weakness sooner even than ecm stalling the system more and then moving North maybe just offshore before a North Florida \ South Carolina hit.

12z Ecm is getting there. A still think it will hang a bit more offshore    

[summer blizzard]

14 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

12z Ecm is getting there. A still think it will hang a bit more offshore    

Euro actually moves SW before the steering current collapses and it starts to jog north up the coast. GFS operational has tended to be a variation of that. It does have ensemble support.

GFS, GEFS and UKMO all smack the east coast of Florida though.

It should be noted that based on day 4 forecasts so far, UKMO is verifying best according to the NHC and is for latitude the middle solution so far (though has the strongest ridge and weakest recurve).

[Iceberg]

As expected recon have just entered the centre. 

Pressure 978mb 

winds 80-85kts. 

So ramping up quickly 

[Iceberg]

Two planes in. 

Noaa just recorded 973mb

[HammerJack]

1 hour ago, Iceberg said:

As expected recon have just entered the centre. 

Pressure 978mb 

winds 80-85kts. 

So ramping up quickly 

Hopefully not to quickly. I’m in Florida with my family on holiday, flying back at 5.30 EST on Sunday 

Edited August 30, 2019 by LeighD

[tinybill]

3 hours ago, LeighD said:

Hopefully not to quickly. I’m in Florida with my family on holiday, flying back at 5.30 EST on Sunday 

be  safe  ex  cat 4  sometime  sunday