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Snow & Ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019/20

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Todays Masie..

Little change of +5K Km2 overall.

No real changes with Chukchi(+7K), ESS(-1K)  and Bering (+1K). Whilst SOO(+14K) was the largest gainer.

Elsewhere  a gain of(+1K) in Kara, but losses in Barents(-10K), and Baffin(-5K) and Central(-4K) all had the affect of negating any gains.  

Ice gain has stalled.

MIA

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Yesterday's snow and ice cover chart for Asia and Europe:1251706909_cursnow_asiaeuropeSnowandIceChartAsiaandEurope12thMondayDecember2019.thumb.gif.59d31aac7be3c9c6cc67bcff7587c87a.gif

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12 hours ago, Katrine Basso said:

Yesterday's snow and ice cover chart for Asia and Europe:1251706909_cursnow_asiaeuropeSnowandIceChartAsiaandEurope12thMondayDecember2019.thumb.gif.59d31aac7be3c9c6cc67bcff7587c87a.gif

Thanks Katrine..

Only small changes to the snow details

Sea ice shows more increases around the US/Canada, but smallish changes elsewhere, with  mostly small gains except Barents which pushed backwards after yesterday's increase.

MIA 

 

Edited by Midlands Ice Age

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Forecast Imageimage.thumb.png.9d07dd4ef78be75d725e77bde50183b2.pngimage.thumb.png.e817f8f9eafcc8af7d855e4790a9002d.png

 

Midlands Ice Age - further to my posts about how sea ice formation is a lot more complex than people might think, have you noticed the patch off NE Iceland that some models show and some don't.  I presume that's from the heavy cold snow there over the last few days. (I posted a few links on the images thread.) It would be cold enough for the snow to persist but the salty brine will slowly dissolve it from below, aided or not by agitation from whatever wind there is. In this location it will very likely dissolve away in a few days, but in others it might seed new ice formation from colder seawater, melt and refreeze on top as a harder thin ice layer, or not remelt at all and persist as a soft layer of slush. Slush can be of various forms - nilas, frazil, pancake.That might then thicken with more snow to give hybrids. Some models measure it and others don't but you can usually tell something is going on from temperature variances. In this case there is an odd lobe of cold sea extending to NE of Iceland. It will probably perist for a day or two after the snow has melted.

(Edit - I don't know why it persists in loading two images for temperature and deletes them both if I delete one. Tried to correct a few times to no avail.)

Edited by Aleman

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Masie today.....

Another WOW.... almost a double century gain, after the last few days of average gains.(+187K Km2)

Pacific front - gains in Chukchi(+27K), ESS(+1K), Bering(+12K) and SOO(+2K).

North America  - massive gains in Hudson (104K) and Baffin(+52K).

Atlantic front - Kara(+12K), Barents(-2K) and Greenland(-10K). With Central contracting by (-9K) as it is full,  and just fluctuating daily on the Atlantic front.  

 

Aleman - yes I had noticed the above in Greenland - Icelandic  waters. You are probably correct that it is a slushy mess caused by the heavy snowfall, which has probably partly frozen due to the strong winds and low temps. Will it survive?

 

In other areas I have just seen a further wave of Ozone leaving the Himalayas. We still have the abnormal pattern of Ozone surrounding the pole, and I notice that the MOD thread is seeing a movement of the PV to Siberia in a few days time..... 

This to me (if it happens) will be a the confirmation that Ozone has an impact on the weather at our pole.

image.thumb.png.82e5ae1c819e267dad40e147f89ba25d.png

We will see.....

MIA 

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On 13/12/2019 at 19:05, Midlands Ice Age said:

Interitus….

Your reference above is an old one, and talks about the Ozone effect of wave breaking.

......

IThis year the action has been to promote a lob-sided Ozone excess in N Canada and the Bering Sea area (Pacific Gateway),  so far,  which has been waxing and waning for the last 6 weeks. See your graph above, which also shows the peak at the beginning of this month. Also see the following link which shows where it has been located ..

https://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/ozone_maps/movies/OZONE_D2019-11-01%P1D_G^360X240.IOMPS_PNPP_V21_MMERRA2_LNH.mp4

and the very latest map -

image.thumb.png.dcec3818214af5c71553482ef9e50653.png Is still showing the same distribution and anomaly.

It has,  a displaced large concentration of Ozone  over the west, and also shows  a very  low concentration  in the East. It is this differential which I believe could well  produce a thermal differential in the stratosphere, causing instability and hence a pushing of the Stratospheric polar vortex. It is this 'pushing' displacement  action at the top, which  is why I expect to see the PV eventually develop over the East this year (my forecast!).

If it does not happen then I may have the mechanism wrong. 

Compare this to last year (run the mp below for the period up to the end of December and you will see a later outburst of Ozone and then a general 'spread' of the Ozone giving little chance for differential of the temperatures), and hence no 'pushing'' effect.

https://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/ozone_maps/movies/OZONE_D2018-11-01%P1D_G^360X240.IOMPS_PNPP_V21_MMERRA2_LNH.mp4

This may well yet still happen this year.        We will see.

 

The age of the paper was intentional to show that ozone has long been used as a tracer following the forcing of the planetary waves as stated. It is the planetary waves forcing the vortex, the ozone follows these. The 'lob-sided ozone excess' is because the air within the vortex is to a large extent isolated from the more ozone rich air which mixes into the stratospheric Aleutian anticyclone. As explained, the peak in the graph at the beginning of the month is because we have just had a substantial period of wave 1 displacing the vortex and transporting ozone polewards. The difference last year of course was that at the end of December - start of January there was a SSW and the vortex broke down. This is what allowed the spread of ozone across the pole.

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59 minutes ago, Interitus said:

The age of the paper was intentional to show that ozone has long been used as a tracer following the forcing of the planetary waves as stated. It is the planetary waves forcing the vortex, the ozone follows these. The 'lob-sided ozone excess' is because the air within the vortex is to a large extent isolated from the more ozone rich air which mixes into the stratospheric Aleutian anticyclone. As explained, the peak in the graph at the beginning of the month is because we have just had a substantial period of wave 1 displacing the vortex and transporting ozone polewards. The difference last year of course was that at the end of December - start of January there was a SSW and the vortex broke down. This is what allowed the spread of ozone across the pole.

Interitus...

I am very aware of the wave 1 activity,  but this 'activity' has been going on since the end of October (and probably before  unnoticed), as I have been reporting on this thread, (long before the wave 1 activity occurred). Please check back  on this thread for my reports.

 

Are you aware that most reactions involving Ozone are exothermic?

That Ozone is the major 'chemical' in the stratosphere. 

That it is extremely reactive.

That it is even more reactive when disassociated by UV?

That is more abundant in the stratosphere than CO2 and everything else, and  more likely elsewhere in the upper atmosphere.

That it is better at absorbing any radiation (across the whole range of the spectrum, from IR to UV), than CO2.

This the latest graphic  from C.R.of the temperature anomalies....

 image.thumb.png.560aeda48eb97a1faacb17e019633d33.png

I  could have chosen anyone from the last 6 weeks. They are all  virtually identical, with the 'warmth' bottled up in exactly the same areas.(although it is now virtually all  ice covered). and yet almost all the land surrounding the ocean is below normal temperatures.

That  the area is the same one as that being covered by Ozone.

Ice has been forming in the Western Arctic much more quickly this year than for many years past (15 at least).

Yet you suggest that there is no connection between all  the events?

To ignore its effect in the Arctic stratosphere was understandable 20 years ago, as it was on a very rapid decline due to the CFC's. 

This year we  had record amounts of Ozone in the atmosphere as at the end of November (since Ozone records were started 1979).  From the charts we have record amounts in the atmosphere  all due to the SSW in the southern Antarctic hemisphere.

To just ignore all the above facts is non-scientific.

Something has been changing up in the Arctic for nearly 2 months.

I do not know  what is causing the above data, but it should not be ignored as BAU.

I will continue to watch and report.

MIA

Edited by Midlands Ice Age

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3 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Interitus...

I am very aware of the wave 1 activity,  but this 'activity' has been going on since the end of October (and probably before  unnoticed), as I have been reporting on this thread, (long before the wave 1 activity occurred). Please check back  on this thread for my reports.

 

Are you aware that most reactions involving Ozone are exothermic?

That Ozone is the major 'chemical' in the stratosphere. 

That it is extremely reactive.

That it is even more reactive when disassociated by UV?

That is more abundant in the stratosphere than CO2 and everything else, and  more likely elsewhere in the upper atmosphere.

That it is better at absorbing any radiation (across the whole range of the spectrum, from IR to UV), than CO2.

This the latest graphic  from C.R.of the temperature anomalies....

 image.thumb.png.560aeda48eb97a1faacb17e019633d33.png

I  could have chosen anyone from the last 6 weeks. They are all  virtually identical, with the 'warmth' bottled up in exactly the same areas.(although it is now virtually all  ice covered). and yet almost all the land surrounding the ocean is below normal temperatures.

That  the area is the same one as that being covered by Ozone.

Ice has been forming in the Western Arctic much more quickly this year than for many years past (15 at least).

Yet you suggest that there is no connection between all  the events?

To ignore its effect in the Arctic stratosphere was understandable 20 years ago, as it was on a very rapid decline due to the CFC's. 

This year we  had record amounts of Ozone in the atmosphere as at the end of November (since Ozone records were started 1979).  From the charts we have record amounts in the atmosphere  all due to the SSW in the southern Antarctic hemisphere.

To just ignore all the above facts is non-scientific.

Something has been changing up in the Arctic for nearly 2 months.

I do not know  what is causing the above data, but it should not be ignored as BAU.

I will continue to watch and report.

MIA

MIA...

Yes ozone is very reactive, though there is very little UV dissociation it is the polar night. However, you really might want to reconsider its concentration compared to CO2!

As for the surface temperature/ozone distribution, there appears to be no coherent correlation whatsoever.

And to repeat the graph posted before, there is not an anomalously high amount of NH polar ozone

 NHozone.thumb.png.d7d19b42cf12849b504727afa7d4c54f.png

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7 hours ago, Interitus said:

MIA...

Yes ozone is very reactive, though there is very little UV dissociation it is the polar night. However, you really might want to reconsider its concentration compared to CO2!

As for the surface temperature/ozone distribution, there appears to be no coherent correlation whatsoever.

And to repeat the graph posted before, there is not an anomalously high amount of NH polar ozone

 NHozone.thumb.png.d7d19b42cf12849b504727afa7d4c54f.png

Thanks Interitus.. You have made me try to rationalise my ideas.

Three things  -

1)Amounts of Ozone (concentration) compared to CO2 - I stated that it was in the Stratosphere and the Upper Atmosphere. I am totally aware that lower down it is only a minor player.     (Note - where it is a GHG)...

However - it is in the stratosphere where it acts as a 'cooling agent'.

 

2)This year the Ozone is 'lob-sided' in the Arctic, and yet the totals are still above average over the last month compared say to last years totals.

That means that the concentrations are much higher in the half of the Arctic and much lower in other areas. That is exactly what I am suggesting is causing the changes observed.

3)Your comments about the lack of UV in the Arctic...

The mechanism I have assumed/suggested for the Arctic is exactly the same as that proposed by every Ozone scientist for the ozone hole production in the Antarctic.  Why should there be UV in the Antarctic, but little in the Arctic?

 

I am not suggesting that this is climate changing - but to not accept it is happening I feel is non-scientific, and if it is happening will mean yet another complication to be considered in weather forecasting and climate change.

Towards that end I am aware that research is/has been  taking place looking at the chemistry of Ozone in the Arctic. This year, however,  looks different to me, and I feel is related to the sun spot cycle and the additional levels of UV striking the earth, now that Ozone levels have been increased to 'normality' again.. 

It could well explain many of the inexplicable climate features of the past that are still not understood, and which must have been caused by a 'natural mechanism'.  

MIA

Edited by Midlands Ice Age

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US NIC this morning...

Snow has increased again from southern Russia into Asia, at the expense of Europe, (apart from the Alps). 

Ice has  expanded in the Pacific rim, but not on the Atlantic front. The N.A, advance continues.

image.thumb.png.8eb106542ba2df54d5a7307d4ba9861b.png

MIA

Edited by Midlands Ice Age

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Masie for today...

Overall gain of 118K Km2 well above average.

JAXA could well go into 5th lowest tomorrow.

North American gains in Hudson (+40K, now nearly full),and Baffin(+22K).

Pacific gains in Chukchi(+27K),  Bering(+18K) and SOO(+9K).

Kara(+6K) and Barents(+3K) returned to growth, but Greenland (-1K) contracted again.

Overall DMI temperatures fell slightly today, after appearing to be undecided which way to turn..  

image.thumb.png.c44ac6bfb761f534d303eaf82471b43c.png

 

News from the 2 research projects in the Arctic.

The Norwegian 2 man walk to the pole and back has completed, though  skiers were sent out to feed and accompany them for the last 100miles. 

The Mosaic project has finally been replenished by the Russian Icebreaker.  Fuel is being is being transferred for the long Arctic sojourn, but it is unclear whether a  fuel leakage has occurred which would have destroyed a lot of the research. 

Apparently as soon as the ships docked together a large lead opened up very close by.

it is thought that some equipment was lost, but a virtual news blackout is hampering efforts to get news of the project.

A major ridging and ice movement event was  experienced last week, even though the weather was thought to be fairly benign, as the resident anticyclone drifted overhead and the winds suddenly changed direction. This has caused some loss of data/equipment, and it will be interesting to see if the new researchers now embarking are more forthcoming with their news and data. Anyway the temperatures have currently stabilised in the -25C  region.

Polarstern  is still drifting more northerly than expected, and is likely to pass very closely to the pole, on current tracking...

MIA

Edited by Midlands Ice Age

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21 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

1)Amounts of Ozone (concentration) compared to CO2 - I stated that it was in the Stratosphere and the Upper Atmosphere. I am totally aware that lower down it is only a minor player.     (Note - where it is a GHG)...

However - it is in the stratosphere where it acts as a 'cooling agent'.

 

2)This year the Ozone is 'lob-sided' in the Arctic, and yet the totals are still above average over the last month compared say to last years totals.

That means that the concentrations are much higher in the half of the Arctic and much lower in other areas. That is exactly what I am suggesting is causing the changes observed.

3)Your comments about the lack of UV in the Arctic...

The mechanism I have assumed/suggested for the Arctic is exactly the same as that proposed by every Ozone scientist for the ozone hole production in the Antarctic.  Why should there be UV in the Antarctic, but little in the Arctic?

 

Stratospheric ozone peaks at about 15 ppm, CO2 is >370 ppm.

With regards to the stratosphere vortex, the lob-sided ozone distribution is a response, not the cause.

There is UV in the Arctic like the Antarctic......in spring time! Later winter and spring is when the depletion occurs and ozone holes are formed.

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2 hours ago, Interitus said:

Stratospheric ozone peaks at about 15 ppm, CO2 is >370 ppm.

With regards to the stratosphere vortex, the lob-sided ozone distribution is a response, not the cause.

There is UV in the Arctic like the Antarctic......in spring time! Later winter and spring is when the depletion occurs and ozone holes are formed.

Interitus...

Any evidence (links) for your statements above?

As ever nothing is that simple... It really is not caused directly by a sudden build up of UV in spring time (or lack of Ozone in the winter)....

 

The papers I have seen state that the reason the Ozone hole is in the spring in the stratosphere above  Antarctica is because at temperatures  below -78C the reaction to RECREATE Ozone do not occur,  and not because of a lack of UV.  On the other hand, the reactions to reduce Ozone with CFC's occur at any temperatures.

The reason that depletion only occurs in the spring is because the stratosphere above Antarctica is the only place on earth that these temperatures are reached, and in the spring at that time of year. That is the reason reported in all the reports I have read!!!

If it was a response to UV, it would/could occur anywhere  (including the north pole). I have not seen anywhere reports of Ozone depletion in the Arctic.

To think that UV is not present up there at the moment does not correlate with any balloon data I have seen (from Finland), it is pretty constant average level, (though extremely varying) as it is attracted to the poles by the magnetic pull of the poles.  Why do auroras only occur in the polar regions? Also the CHANGES in UV striking the earth during the solar minimum are not directly produced by our sun. They are more related to the background radiation, coming in from all directions.

The current Mosaic project will hopefully give us more detail.  

Re your second sentence  - What is the response that causes the lob-sided distribution and what has caused it to appear the way it has, this year?

All the papers I have read  state that the chemistry of Ozone over the poles is very complex,  and not just a straight forward response to UV.

It appears it is made easier to understand  over Antarctica  since  one side of the equation becomes shut down, but it is still extremely complex.   

MIA

Edited by Midlands Ice Age

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Todays Arctic view...

Snow has expanded over Asia and the NA, but a small decrease again in Europe.

Sea ice is very much as the last few days, with increases in the Pacific and the American side, but still wind affected in the Atlantic.

image.thumb.png.50a7980a50e2c4a4369d21bab5b974f4.png

 

MIA

Edited by Midlands Ice Age

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@Midlands Ice Age could cosmic radiation affect ozone levels?  There is of course plenty of cosmic radiation at the poles even during their winters 

 

(Edit yes it can and these particles then can aid cloud formation as demonstrated by Svensmark)

Edited by ArHu3

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4 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Interitus...

Any evidence (links) for your statements above?

As ever nothing is that simple... It really is not caused directly by a sudden build up of UV in spring time (or lack of Ozone in the winter)....

 

The papers I have seen state that the reason the Ozone hole is in the spring in the stratosphere above  Antarctica is because at temperatures  below -78C the reaction to RECREATE Ozone do not occur,  and not because of a lack of UV.  On the other hand, the reactions to reduce Ozone with CFC's occur at any temperatures.

The reason that depletion only occurs in the spring is because the stratosphere above Antarctica is the only place on earth that these temperatures are reached, and in the spring at that time of year. That is the reason reported in all the reports I have read!!!

If it was a response to UV, it would/could occur anywhere  (including the north pole). I have not seen anywhere reports of Ozone depletion in the Arctic.

To think that UV is not present up there at the moment does not correlate with any balloon data I have seen (from Finland), it is pretty constant average level, (though extremely varying) as it is attracted to the poles by the magnetic pull of the poles.  Why do auroras only occur in the polar regions? Also the CHANGES in UV striking the earth during the solar minimum are not directly produced by our sun. They are more related to the background radiation, coming in from all directions.

The current Mosaic project will hopefully give us more detail.  

Re your second sentence  - What is the response that causes the lob-sided distribution and what has caused it to appear the way it has, this year?

All the papers I have read  state that the chemistry of Ozone over the poles is very complex,  and not just a straight forward response to UV.

It appears it is made easier to understand  over Antarctica  since  one side of the equation becomes shut down, but it is still extremely complex.   

MIA

 

Ozone and CO2 concentrations -

Quote

The peak concentration of ozone occurs at an altitude of roughly 32 kilometers (20 miles) above the surface of the Earth. At that altitude, ozone concentration can be as high as 15 parts per million (0.0015 percent).

https://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/facts/SH.html

While tropospheric CO2 is now >400 ppm, it is slightly lower in the stratosphere and with increasing altitude and latitude because of the lag of the transport mechanisms -

Quote

Global distribution of CO2 in the upper troposphere and stratosphere - Diallo et al (2017)

stratozone.thumb.png.3cf777f919f48325c6e5ee61e69d6058.png

 

https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/17/3861/2017/acp-17-3861-2017.pdf

 

Antarctic ozone holes -

Quote

The depth and area of the ozone hole are primarily governed by the amounts of chlorine and bromine in the Antarctic stratosphere. Very low temperatures are needed to form polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs). Chlorine gases react on the surface of these PSCs to release chlorine into a form that can easily destroy ozone. The chlorine and bromine chemical catalytic reactions that destroy ozone need sunlight. Hence, the ozone hole begins to grow as the sun is rising over Antarctica at the end of the winter.

The ozone hole begins to grow in August and reaches its largest area in depth from the middle of September to early October. In the early years (before 1984) the hole was small because chlorine and bromine levels over Antarctica were low. Year-to-year variations in area and depth are caused by year-to-year variations in temperature. Colder conditions result in a larger area and lower ozone values in the center of the hole.

https://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/meteorology/index.html

The chlorine / bromine levels as mentioned of course increased with the release of now outlawed CFCs.

Comparison of Arctic/Antarctic ozone holes -

Quote

Fundamental differences between Arctic and Antarctic ozone depletion - Solomon et al (2014)

Antarctic ozone depletion is associated with enhanced chlorine from anthropogenic chlorofluorocarbons and heterogeneous chemistry under cold conditions. The deep Antarctic “hole” contrasts with the generally weaker depletions observed in the warmer Arctic. An unusually cold Arctic stratospheric season occurred in 2011, raising the question of how the Arctic ozone chemistry in that year compares with others. We show that the averaged depletions near 20 km across the cold part of each pole are deeper in Antarctica than in the Arctic for all years, although 2011 Arctic values do rival those seen in less-depleted years in Antarctica. We focus not only on averages but also on extremes, to address whether or not Arctic ozone depletion can be as extreme as that observed in the Antarctic. This information provides unique insights into the contrasts between Arctic and Antarctic ozone chemistry. We show that extreme Antarctic ozone minima fall to or below 0.1 parts per million by volume (ppmv) at 18 and 20 km (about 70 and 50 mbar) whereas the lowest Arctic ozone values are about 0.5 ppmv at these altitudes. At a higher altitude of 24 km (30-mbar level), no Arctic data below about 2 ppmv have been observed, including in 2011, in contrast to values more than an order of magnitude lower in Antarctica. The data show that the lowest ozone values are associated with temperatures below −80 °C to −85 °C depending upon altitude, and are closely associated with reduced gaseous nitric acid concentrations due to uptake and/or sedimentation in polar stratospheric cloud particles

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4035972/

The Arctic vortex is more disturbed by planetary wave activity so tends to be warmer thus the PSC formation is lower, less frequent and widespread (areally and altitudinally), or persistent into spring and the returning sunlight -

Quote

The winter meteorological conditions in the Northern Hemisphere, just like in the Southern Hemisphere, lead to the formation of an isolated region bounded by strong winds, in which the temperature is also cold enough for polar stratospheric clouds to form. However, the geographic symmetry about the North Pole is less than about the South Pole. As a result, large-scale weather systems disturb the wind flow, making it less stable over the Arctic region than over the Antarctic continent. These disturbances prevent the temperature in the Arctic stratosphere from being as cold as in the Antarctic stratosphere, and fewer polar stratospheric clouds are therefore formed. Nevertheless, chemically active chlorine and bromine compounds are also formed over the Arctic, as they are over Antarctica, from reactions at the surface of the clouds. But the cold conditions rarely persist into March, when sufficient sunlight is available to initiate large ozone depletion.

https://uk-air.defra.gov.uk/research/ozone-uv/moreinfo?view=arctic-ozone-hole

 

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Masie today shows yet another above average gain for total Arctic ice  of (+129K Km2). 

Jaxa will move most likely to 6th or 7th lowest tomorrow,  AND above  the 2010's average.

From being around 500K Km2 below the average figure at the beginning of October it has now very much entered average numbers for  this decade, and this despite well above anomaly temperatures during the whole period (+3.0C). In fact I do not think we have had one negative anomaly!!. 

As suggested this morning  there were gains in Chukchi(+15K) and Bering(+17K) , and the SOO with (+24K).

Interestingly the refreeze now seems to be progressing from the Bering (where the ice formed around the coastlines) back into Chukchi.

North America gained by Baffin(+15K) and Hudson(+43K).

The Atlantic front was only partly affected Kara(-2K), Barents(+5K) and Greenland(+11K). 

The current phase of freezing has now almost completed with Hudson and Chukchi pretty well iced over.

This now leaves the continuation of the rapid increase in the hands of the outer sea areas  of Barents (how far south and west it can get), Baffin (Labrador coast), Bering (out to the Aleutian Islands), and the SOO. The smaller sea areas of Baltic, Yellow Sea and Cooke Inlet will simple boost any changes.

This year the ice refreeze has been unusual, with the rapid and above average refreeze on the Atlantic front, but a relatively slower rise in the east.... and still a very interesting season is unfolding.

MIA

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Interitus..

 

Thanks for the links.

 

They refer to the period of pre 2000 to 2010. Although one was produced in 2017.

They are talking in the main about CO2 in the stratosphere.

Ozone is treated as a by product of their CO2 discussions..They suggest/proclaim that sunlight is required to produce the conditions for Chlorine and Bromine to attach to the PSC's, and then for Ozone to be able to react, depleting the Ozone. Probably the chemistry described is correct for that period. but we are  losing the Chloro and Fluoro Hydrocarbons now. 

The discussions concerning the Ozone in the Arctic in your links are much more vague about what happens -

'In recent years, there has been a string of unusually cold winters in the Arctic, compared with those in the preceding 30 years. The cold and persistent conditions have led to enhanced ozone depletion, because the atmospheric concentrations of ozone-depleting gases have also been relatively large during these years. However, the cause of the observed change in meteorological conditions is not yet understood. Such conditions might persist over the coming years, further enhancing ozone depletion. But it is also possible that, in the next few years, they could revert to conditions characteristic of a decade ago. In the latter case, chemical ozone depletion in the Arctic would be expected to diminish.' 

I have highlighted the sentences to be noted.

Also - from your quote  above -

'The data show that the lowest ozone values are associated with temperatures below −80 °C to −85 °C depending upon altitude, and are closely associated with reduced gaseous nitric acid concentrations due to uptake and/or sedimentation in polar stratospheric cloud particles'

Your quote also refers to 6 of the last 9 years having below normal temperatures, and an extremely strong vortex so they do not represent what is happening now. Is it  really relevant to todays conditions in the Arctic?.

The following link from a paper produced specifically on Ozone in the atmosphere is treated from a chemistry point of view, incorporating the Chloro and Bromine hydrocarbons. They think that CO2 is irrelevant at these heights as Ozone is such a powerful radiation agent.

https://www.geos.ed.ac.uk/~dstevens/publications/isaksen_ozone_climate_ec03.pdf

 

It also talks of much more work being required before the chemistry of Ozone in the Arctic stratosphere  is understood.

It suggests that the natural 'predator' of Ozone are the various Oxides of Nitrogen  (as is suggested in your link also), and that the reactions of Ozone are directly correlated to the strength of UV, which it utilises as a catalyst to enable its extreme reactivity.

The Ozone holes have virtually nothing to do with the chemistry of the Arctic at present, but we do seem to have vast concentration differences in the Ozone which you suggest is b.a,u. .

Can I suggest that this year is showing what we may see more of in the coming few decades.

MIA 

image.png

Edited by Midlands Ice Age

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Good morning everyone...

US NIC..

 image.thumb.png.82e35ef40a2de5474ffec9e33dae1fc3.png

Snow has moved a little westward in Asia and has now re-entered back into W Russia.

Sea ice seems to have increased slightly in most areas.

As mused yesterday ice levels are now moving quickly through the rankings   - (Jaxa) image.thumb.png.ca94bbdc01c65bbc6d8ae44e2f311a9f.png

and 

image.thumb.png.f05a5f04f15cce11309b6b9095dd06f4.png

 

MIA

Edited by Midlands Ice Age

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Masie today - a smaller than average 40K KM2 increase.

Chukchi increased again from the Bering movement North (+17K), but  Bering still gained(+5K),SOO had a standard  increase of (+8K).

Little change over the Atlantic front with Kara(-1K), Barents(+7K), Greenland(+8K) and Central(+2K).

North America gained slightly with Baffin(-1K)and Hudson(+10K).

Still no immediate sign of change in temperatures over the Arctic, but forecasts of a cooldown in Chukchi in  3 days time -

Dominated by high pressure at the moment-

image.thumb.png.d53500f61a061246bd1d0029815f7d46.png                       image.thumb.png.51b6888fd90920bb19e5e8b6e2b56762.png

 

MIA

Edited by Midlands Ice Age

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USNIC this morning...

Little change in snow cover, with a movement south again in Asia. European snow cover is now  below average for the time of year, maps to follow later.

Sea ice growth is now restricted with small reductions in North America, and small gains in the Pacific.

Variation seems to be along the coastlines….  grid change half way through the month?   

image.thumb.png.d9716b286590303d52d8ca3568f8f24e.png

MIA

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Masie today

A small decrease in sea ice content today (-2K Km2).

Chukchi(+25K), Bering(+8K) and SOO(+9K) all gained, beginning to fill out the basin in the East

Barents(+20K) and Greenland(-20K) cancelled each other out. 

Baffin (-16K) and Hudson(-30K) lost ice today after many recent gains. 

Lets check things out tomorrow, to see if these results have started a new trend!!

 

Elsewhere Rutgers is now showing a reduction in snow coverage anomaly almost totally caused by a lack of snow in Europe,

A European snowfall will make a huge difference to this map.

image.thumb.png.07c9324d138b324d47a2f8db1d7d0539.png

MIA

 

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2 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Masie today

A small decrease in sea ice content today (-2K Km2).

Chukchi(+25K), Bering(+8K) and SOO(+9K) all gained, beginning to fill out the basin in the East

Barents(+20K) and Greenland(-20K) cancelled each other out. 

Baffin (-16K) and Hudson(-30K) lost ice today after many recent gains. 

Lets check things out tomorrow, to see if these results have started a new trend!!

 

Elsewhere Rutgers is now showing a reduction in snow coverage anomaly almost totally caused by a lack of snow in Europe,

A European snowfall will make a huge difference to this map.

image.thumb.png.07c9324d138b324d47a2f8db1d7d0539.png

MIA

 

The Alaskan anomaly is the most intriguing - it was unusual when pointed out in this thread over a month ago (Nov 15th) but to be still present now is staggering. Sure, Anchorage has had some snow in the intervening period, but then followed a December record maximum of 10.6°C (previous record 8.9°C).

Last 30 days temperature anomaly of 7.2°C

tn70273_30191217.thumb.gif.16818c0af6d124ffce2c901e91007932.gif

Edited by Interitus

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US NIC...

Looks like a day of smallish losses along many  of the snow and ice fronts today.

The exception is the Pacific front in that  Chukchi continues to fill in.

image.thumb.png.54e514c5152b12c46e2b706c134a37e5.png 

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10 hours ago, Interitus said:

The Alaskan anomaly is the most intriguing - it was unusual when pointed out in this thread over a month ago (Nov 15th) but to be still present now is staggering. Sure, Anchorage has had some snow in the intervening period, but then followed a December record maximum of 10.6°C (previous record 8.9°C).

Last 30 days temperature anomaly of 7.2°C

tn70273_30191217.thumb.gif.16818c0af6d124ffce2c901e91007932.gif

Some more info on Alaska

RBEGDK3DEBGVHL43MWK7UYYNI4.JPG
WWW.ADN.COM

Eagle River had over a foot of snow by Sunday morning, while areas in Anchorage saw up to 10 inches.

 

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