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Snow & Ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019/20

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There has been some increase and decrease of snow cover and sea ice:

cursnow_asiaeurope Snow & Ice Chart (Asia & Europe) Saturaday 30th November 2019.gif

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Yep, as per Katrine's post above - nothing much to see in the ice change today.

Masie has produced a small decrease today (-31K), and shows a reversal pattern, with gains in the East with Chukchi (+18K) and Beaufort(+1K) and Bering(+1K).

However after the  large gains of the last 2 days, the Atlantic front now  appears to be 'consoiidating'.

Losses of -9K in Kara, Barents(-11K),but mainly Greenland(-30K) sealed the day as negative.

Hudson Bay (+10K) and  Baffin(+5K) continue along as if nothing has happened. 

This trend of 2 days of increase followed by one day of reversal, is becoming the 'norm' now for the main pack..

I still believe that it is a function of the 25% used to define extent that I explained about  that causes the day today fluctuations.  Even a small ice  reduction can trigger the 'open water' syndrome.

It backs up Aleman's opinion that taken one day in isolation is likely to lead to a garden path somewhere.

However, I still think it is easier to spot shorter term  changes (and trends) as the ice fronts wax and wane at this time of year.

Lets see what happens tomorrow, though I need to see the SLP pattern before confirming a prediction.

Here it is -

 

image.thumb.png.0c6a7e176959d8d1e5a5d79077c4f8e0.png

 

This shows that changes are afoot with a 3 way pattern of low pressure situated over Baffin, Northern Scandinavia and Bering, but being  inter-dispersed by relatively high pressure. So with generally Northerly winds over the Atlantic ice pack and Easterly or slack over the Eastern ice pack, I would anticipate another day of gains in the Atlantic but continued slow growth over the US and eastern Arctic sectors.. 

 

 

 

 

image.thumb.png.a4b220c2dae5741882020cb27bf23932.png

Also, the above shows  a renewed strong burst of Ozone over Siberia, which is already moving into the Arctic now,  it convinces me that the Polar Vortex is a long way away  from forming, and that a continuation of similar conditions will be maintained. Remember that these situations are NOT the norm for the last 30 to 40 years.

Why are we seeing the constant high levels of Ozone being 'pushed' into the Arctic?

I can only suggest that it is being caused by 1) the higher levels of Ozone  as are being recorded worldwide (I already have explained/discussed why this has happened this year); 2)  the current strength of the atmospheric waves which are thought to be 'pushing' the Ozone into the Northern areas; and  3) together and being magnified by the much higher levels of Ultra Violet currently warming and 'lighting up' the Ozone in the Northern Stratosphere.  The thing that dictates the amount of incoming UV - you guessed it - its the 'Low Solar' activity of the sun that we are currently witnessing.

In addition, this warming  must be severely hampering the  fledgling Vortex in the stratosphere from extending down into the troposphere. Does this - which then dictates the strength of the AO and NAO (+or-) then effect the current weather patterns and hence our climate eventually? 

The Model Discussion thread seem to be having a few problems with this.....😪:nea::oldrofl:

We will see. 

MIA

Edited by Midlands Ice Age

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An update from the Mosaic Project...

https://follow.mosaic-expedition.org/

Things have been progressing steadily for a few days now. They should be meeting up with their Ice breaker 'reload' shortly.

Temperature reached a low of -31C last Wednesday, however since they have risen slightly to about -21C today.

Interestingly they are allowing a comparison with the 'Fram' project of 1893, when the temperatures were about -20C at similar dates.Click on the bottom left icons to switch between the 2 ships notes and reports on a daily basis..

DMI 80 degree temperature seems to have levelled off in the last 2 days at around or just below -249K  (or about -23C). 

Temperatures around the perimeter of the Ocean (click on the islands in the attached link below) are hitting -30C in many places at the moment, but I notice the SLP change I alluded to in my previous note will start  to bring in Atlantic winds to the Atlantic front in a couple of days with heavy snow. At about  the same time the temperatures in the Pacific gateway are set to fall.

https://en.allmetsat.com/weather-forecast/arctic.php?city=prince-patrick-island-ca-nt

After that in  the 10day outlook period  (according to GFS), the temperatures will fall below -50C in Siberia and Greenland,  with Canada hitting -40C.  The Ocean 2M temp itself is expected to be about -25C (the average) by that time.   

MIA

Edited by Midlands Ice Age

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USnic this morning..

Looks as if no real change to snow cover.

Ice has undergone the reversal discussed above with gains in all areas except the Atlantic front. (Back more or less to normal Dec growth patterns).

image.thumb.png.32fbe6e00e282023cd295c1f134fe8c5.png

MIA

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When are models going to start showing Baltic ice? They'll look back and say it was a late start this year but it wasn't - although it's been very slow after that first week or two that coincided with the severe cold snap in Scandinavia. The ice has been there over 4 weeks and has been 20cm for a couple of weeks at least. It also seems to back up my suggestion thats some models do not see nilas.

http://baltice.org/pdf/IceChart_20191202_Baltic.pdf

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Aleman

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5 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

USnic this morning..

Looks as if no real change to snow cover.

Ice has undergone the reversal discussed above with gains in all areas except the Atlantic front. (Back more or less to normal Dec growth patterns).

image.thumb.png.32fbe6e00e282023cd295c1f134fe8c5.png

MIA

South Scandi>Eastern Europe showing gains though MIA.

Untitled.thumb.png.13eee665ea6a7876451f98530fcbde90.png

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A.Si - yes you are correct, but I had picked up the some of the changes in southern Scandinavia in yesterday's report..

 

Masie today confirms my analysis of NIC.

Overall gains of +32KKm2 so back to where we were 2 days ago!..

Large falls on the Atlantic front with Kara(-18K), Barents(-43K) and Greenland(+13K).

Large rises on the Pacific frontier with Chukchi(+62K), Beaufort(+3K), ESS(+1K) and Bering(+10K).

In between or around gains in Hudson(+4K), with the outlaying recording no change.

Once again we see the effect of wind direction on the Arctic ice as it is still colder on the western front than over in the East.

MIA

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5 hours ago, Aleman said:

When are models going to start showing Baltic ice? They'll look back and say it was a late start this year but it wasn't - although it's been very slow after that first week or two that coincided with the severe cold snap in Scandinavia. The ice has been there over 4 weeks and has been 20cm for a couple of weeks at least. It also seems to back up my suggestion thats some models do not see nilas.

http://baltice.org/pdf/IceChart_20191202_Baltic.pdf

 

 

 

 

 

 

Maisie report still shows Baltic to be doing OK

.image.thumb.png.0eda828bc3f75c42146947321285cd30.png

But the rest are struggling,

MIA

 

 

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It has appeared on MASIE's map! Though I had to blow it up and I have not seen it before now.

Not here, though:

CLIMATEREANALYZER.ORG

And appeared on DMI today but bearing no resemblence to Masie

Or to FMI, where it's been on show 4 weeks.

http://baltice.org/pdf/IceChart_20191202_Baltic.pdf

Satellite showed the first ice on October 29th - though in fairly trivial amounts that might not register. It looks significant by Nov 3rd/4th.

preview.png
WORLDVIEW.EARTHDATA.NASA.GOV

The NASA Worldview app provides a satellite's perspective of the planet as it looks today and as it has in the past through daily satellite images. Worldview...

Anyway, the differences between models keeps me entertained!

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DMI temperatures over 80degreees now appear to be turning the corner.

Latest chart this evening shows a slight increase.

image.thumb.png.cd918c24205879c89a53d18c45b47b19.png

Climate reanalysis temperature has now fallen to an anomaly of +1.8C today and  is down about 1.5C from its maximum 2 weeks ago.

image.thumb.png.0514d394aca7d31de186acedcdb783b5.png

 

All this, while Ozone continues to pour from southern Asia into the Eastern Arctic polar regions.

It looks like a never ending chain is setting up. I will very surprised if the PV becomes an meaningful entity in  the next 2 weeks.

image.thumb.png.beb9a0955472bf24b53612e1140e8d88.png

MIA

.

Edited by Midlands Ice Age

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US NIC…..

A large increase in snow in southern central Europe eastwards into Russia...

Also a major move westward of the Siberian snow block towards the countries around the southern Baltic.

If the 2 meet up , we will have developed a very powerful cold block to the east.

A small loss of snow in East Asia/Northern China.. 

Sea ice - probably a small retraction overall today, but increases in America may make up for small wind produced contractions elsewhere..

image.thumb.png.f6bd6ecaa4bf3ba5425460852304b1d3.png 

MIA

Edited by Midlands Ice Age

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Tonight's Masie sea ice and DMI temperature report.

Masie extent increased by a modest +48K Km2.

Small decreases again today in the East with Chukchi(-5K) and Beaufort(-1K),but Bering(+5K)still increases.

Barents lost(-20K) on the Atlantic front, but small gains in Kara(+2K), Greenland(+6K),Baffin(+13K) and Hudson(+37K), and the latter is now in full freeze mode.

No change in Baltic(0), but SOO(+8K) is also going into freeze mode now. 

I'll do a status of the areas report at end of November soon.

Elsewhere DMI temp rocketed up by  +3.04C ,as the winds from the south and south east stretched all the way from Svalbard to Bering pushing the warmer weather across the pole.

image.thumb.png.22a988f5930a9fcf9918d03e601f1fe3.png

 

 

Climate Reanalyser SLP shows this -

image.thumb.png.b5dcd76bbeb99ef3ab0ffa83d3b2b034.pngNote          low pressure now in control.

and the MSLP and Snow chart -  image.thumb.png.57c560e1c985c7ab3568a748d52aed85.png

 

Further out the outlook is for more cooling after a couple of days of relative warmth.

More news in from Mosaic is that life is getting more difficult for the research,

Temperatures are around -25C, and in the last 24hrs the winds have been gusting at 45K p hr, making any research on the ice flows difficult.  Apparently, loss of power of the equipment out on the ice (drifting snow), and problems with bears as well as loss of equipment under the ice by the moving cracks has caused many experiments to have to be abandoned. 

They are still headed towards the pole, which means their ice breaker support vessel is taking longer to reach them. 

Still- (my - positive side) they are young enough to be able to learn from their experiences.

MIA

Edited by Midlands Ice Age

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Finally the Ozone figures have been updated for November 2019..

The highest since records were started in 1979 for the maximum -

which bears some credence to my recent postings.... phwuhhh ..

The first major part of my assumptions was valid.

to3maxn_11_toms+omi+omps(nov).pdf

Released today by NASA

The file is a pdf. Let me know if it is not viewable. 

MIA

 

Edited by Midlands Ice Age

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7 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

 

Finally the Ozone figures have been updated for November 2019..

The highest since records were started in 1979 for the maximum -

which bears some credence to my recent postings.... phwuhhh ..

The first major part of my assumptions was valid.

to3maxn_11_toms+omi+omps(nov).pdf 9.54 kB · 10 downloads

Released today by NASA

The file is a pdf. Let me know if it is not viewable. 

MIA

 

the pdf doesn't work

 

edit:works on desktop if you manually change the file extension

Edited by ArHu3

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The Baltic Ice recorded by DMI jumped suddenly yesterday to match that recorded by FMI. So the ice was there but not being recorded by DMI and now it is, although both of these now look to be recording more than MASIE. You could tell from DMI temperature anomalies for weeks before that the ice was there.

http://baltice.org/pdf/IceChart_20191202_Baltic.pdf

Edited by Aleman

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2 hours ago, ArHu3 said:

the pdf doesn't work

 

edit:works on desktop if you manually change the file extension

I do not know why, but the NV system seems to add on    odd extension details (a unique  identifier, time and date, etc).

It means, for me that to view even the CET data results,  supplied by Roger and J10,  I have to perform the file type extension (by means of rename) change in order Windows to pick it up correctly.

Anyway, for anyone interested I am supplying the link to the NASA webpage.By then choosing 'Ozone max data' and then 'November'   the graph is easily available.

https://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/meteorology/NH.html

For info - that is why I normally specify 'just display the link info'  when creating these type of links. 

MIA

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1 hour ago, Aleman said:

The Baltic Ice recorded by DMI jumped suddenly yesterday to match that recorded by FMI. So the ice was there but not being recorded by DMI and now it is, although both of these now look to be recording more than MASIE. You could tell from DMI temperature anomalies for weeks before that the ice was there.

http://baltice.org/pdf/IceChart_20191202_Baltic.pdf

Thanks for the above..

I have no doubt that the ice was there. There is also no doubt that the local ice services be it Canada (GLCFS) or Finland(FMI), are the most accurate.

Its just that due to the satellites used for 'recording' the hemispherical data only being  24Km X 24Km resolution that they use the grids and meshes for this type of smallish coastal area.  They get updated about every 2 weeks, and  sometimes means that a 'leap' or 'dip' is recorded that is not there.  I have noticed that the next day seems to always record a correction.

Masie  at 4Km X 4 Km seems to be much better than the straight NSIDC, and NASA produced data. 

For interest JAXA (the Japanese produced satellite data) seems to be in the middle, and is used extensively on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum..

However,  it all gets smoothed out in the end. It is only a few KM2 when the total is around 10M Km2. 

I  will be interested in seeing what Masie records for sea ice later today.

PS.... I notice that ice is now being recorded around St Petersburg now.

MIA

 

Edited by Midlands Ice Age

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5 hours ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Morning all

 

image.thumb.png.c6f9f41f00b68df9dc4a9b9b72ec0c91.png

US NIC this morning..

Shows  that a large increase in Europe did occur yesterday and that the Russian snow block has indeed moved west into Europe and joined up with the newly formed central Europe snow moving eastwards. Good for our prospects later on?

USA is now seeing snow further and further southwards.

Sea ice (apart from Barents) has recorded mostly smaller gains....

(Including the Pacific Gateway which is now seeing Northerly winds pushing the ice in the Beaufort Gyre along the Alaskan coastline)...  

MIA 

Edited by Midlands Ice Age

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3 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Thanks for the above..

I have no doubt that the ice was there. There is also no doubt that the local ice services be it Canada (GLCFS) or Finland(FMI), are the most accurate.

Its just that due to the satellites used for 'recording' the hemispherical data only being  24Km X 24Km resolution that they use the grids and meshes for this type of smallish coastal area.  They get updated about every 2 weeks, and  sometimes means that a 'leap' or 'dip' is recorded that is not there.  I have noticed that the next day seems to always record a correction.

Masie  at 4Km X 4 Km seems to be much better than the straight NSIDC, and NASA produced data. 

For interest JAXA (the Japanese produced satellite data) seems to be in the middle, and is used extensively on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum..

However,  it all gets smoothed out in the end. It is only a few KM2 when the total is around 10M Km2. 

I  will be interested in seeing what Masie records for sea ice later today.

PS.... I notice that ice is now being recorded around St Petersburg now.

MIA

 

Whilst I appreciate the effort to explain and the logic behind it, reality still does not seem concur. If you look at the DMI map, they now have some tiny spots down the east coast of a few km in diameter being recorded yet DMI could not see the horseshoe running around the northern coast for weeks that ran up to 20km or more out to sea. It might be a coastal masking algorithm thing, though. There are lots of small islands in that horseshoe.

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Todays Masie sea ice data.

Up by an unexpected 117K Km2.

As I indicated above rises were fairly general, with  the exception of the Atlantic front (I indicated Barents)   (+10K), but it was Greenland and the Central Arctic that receded somewhat (-8K) and (-3K).

Otherwise in the Pacific bounded areas gains again in Chukchi (+26K), Beaufort (+2K) and ESS(+3K) as the Northerly set in and pushed the ice boundary southwards.

Elsewhere, more large gains in Hudson(+48K), and Baffin(+28K) as the cold weather takes over in North America,

Outer areas showed a gain again in SOO (+4K), and Bering(+6K).

All this is whilst temperatures in the Arctic rose according to DMI. 

I am more convinced that ice extent is more impacted by wind direction and strength than temperatures.

Coming back to Aleman above..

Is what you call DMI ice extent the same as Masie?

Masie has been showing ice extent at a maximum for 4 weeks now (the earliest it started icing for 5years).

You do have to use the ZOOM feature to see it, however,  due to the worldwide scaling involved.  

image.thumb.png.6f9a2dc5f8a20b95b1d50c338054d588.png But it has been there for many weeks now. 

 

There was a small  increase recorded for today. however though not enough to trigger on my calculations.  

image.thumb.png.be09d68a3487333a5c5fb3c7ab6f09c3.png

 

MIA

Edited by Midlands Ice Age

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Latest update of ice and snow..

image.thumb.png.3e5b93cf36dff1db824fd8c542813b2f.png

 

Snow    - main changes in Europe          where yesterdays falls continue to migrate SE into areas west of the Caspian Sea. 

Sea ice  -  same as yesterday, with slight losses on the Atlantic front (as the low in the Fram  pumps up warmer air), but elsewhere pretty good gains, with more of the Northerly winds..

MIA  

Edited by Midlands Ice Age

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Masie tonight..

Gain of (+80K) Km2  in total extent.

Atlantic front falling back again, with losses in Barents(-5K) and Greenland(-21K) and Central(-3K).

Elsewhere gains in Hudson (+42K), including a surge in Foxe Bay, Chukchi(+30K), Kara(+13K) and Baffin(+14K). Bering also added(+5K) as the Pacific front approaches to the North.

Temperatures today eased back from their rapid rise with a 0.9C increase according to DMI, but cooler temperatures are now taking over until after the weekend, when (-25C to -20C), is expected..

image.thumb.png.94e0608fe484dc3b62df33feca0517c4.png    The switch back is really in progress.

News from the Mosaic project of yet more issues. The Polarstern seems to be moving rapidly North eastwards instead of North westwards. The temperatures have started to fall again now after reaching a mild (-15C), but of more concern is the continuous gale force winds which are preventing the researchers accessing ice flow,

In other news the large Russian Ice Breaker Kapitan Dranitsyn   (KD), has finally left Tromso and is about to enter the ice.

The report above also indicates problems have been encountered by another research project in which 2 men reached the pole in the summer, but now appear ice bound north of Svalbard on their way home. Already a rescue ship the 'Lance' has now become icebound. The KD could well be diverted to collect the men, and possibly the stuck ship.

kapitan.dranitsyn-rosmorport.jpg
THEBARENTSOBSERVER.COM

The «Kapitan Dranitsyn» is bringing equipment, supplies and 95 researchers to the «Polarstern» as part of great international research expedition MOSAiC.

MIA

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Latest NSIDC blog out for November.

The month had the second lowest ice extent on record, though according to the NSIDC's passive microwave satellite data extent is now up to the third lowest for the time of year, ahead of 2016 & 2006 (I'll be watching 2026 with interest...!).

 

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