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Turnedoutniceagain

Snow & Ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019/20

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8 hours ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Winter's come early to North America this year

 

image.thumb.png.e5886e3971138cd8e48206c16ee098ec.png

I expect this will look even more impressive tomorrow with many areas South of the snow band seeing heavy snow.

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Slight increase of sea ice and small decreases of snow.  Scandinavia and parts of Scotland are still holding on to a good cover of snow.  The snow that fell in Wales has not appeared on any other of the previous snow and ice chart maps.

cursnow_asiaeurope Snow & Ice Chart Asia & Europe Monday 11th November 2019.gif

Edited by Katrine Basso
Adding extra information

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Records going galore,  MIA posting re bery cold temps being recorded despite the ‘warm anomalies’ on models.  Very rapid refreeze last 2 weeks, MIA posted re cooling SSTs in NA.....looking at my sig.....I think the corner is turned.  There is no doubt what’s happening now is making folk sit up and look.  

 

BFTP 

 

 

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Fred..

Easy. easy....

Its too early yet.

Thanks to Katrine for todays NIC. (been out all day)

Todays Masie shows more or less exactly the same again with an average  increase of (+80K)

Areas of growth; Beaufort again(+20K, making up for yesterdays glitch), Chukchi(+17K), slowly making up ground now), Kara(+4K) and Barents(+9K).   

US/Canadian Arctic Oceans now in steady  growth mode with Baffin (+8K), CAA(+17K) and Hudson (8K).

Beaufort and CAA are now approaching being full.

Summary of all this..

-  We have CAA, CAB, Laptev virtually full, with  ESS, and Beaufort filling up rapidly... Barents, Chukchi, Baffin, and Hudson in  growth mode..... and Bering,  SOO, Baltic and the smaller sea peripheral areas just starting to freeze. Looks like normality is resuming. 

-  It looks as if the Arctic's hurry to freeze up has caught up far enough and the refreeze will now settle down to normal rates of growth, with the more extensive ice on the Atlantic matching any slower refreezing on the Pacific front.

-   Very cold weather (records?) in many areas surrounding the Arctic. Apparently extremely high temperature anomalies in the 'eastern' Arctic more recently.

-  What appear to be lower sst's in the Atlantic, possible higher ssts in Bering - though last year they were higher at this stage. 

-  increased snowfall in the northern hemisphere

Will any of  this have any effect on Northern Hemisphere weather? 

Will any of this still be present in April?

MIA

 

Edited by Midlands Ice Age

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I'm currently in the US and can confirm it's cold! The temperature drop here in the south is phenomenal and by no means is Louisiana the worst place. It's great to see so much informative information from the Weather Channel where they describe what and why it's happening and don't just focus on the wild headlines. Has to be said on the other side of the country the ski resorts are starting to get very worried. It's dry and warm with little change in sight so not everyone is enjoying the snow that's for sure!

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Thanks Kirkcaldy Weather for the updates and pictures of the amazing snow that has fallen in the US over the last 36-48 hours.Really does make me envious being a snow lover and the only time I can relate to those levels in Michigan was December 2010 when we had 17 inches of level snow here in NW kent(we were in the sweet spot here and it snowed for 3 days from 29th Nov-1st December).

It does seem a strange year weather wise this year and snow and ice cover seem to be increasing well over the last 2 weeks and it is always nice to see the snow advancement Westwards through Europe.Also good to see Scandinavia have a more traditional start to winter with good snow cover in central/northern Sweden Norway and Finland. 

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No worries @Hotspur61 I am probably the biggest snow addict ever 😀 some truly amazing snowfall amounts and also lots of other snow / cold records being broken across USA and Scandinavia, yes the only comparable events here were November 2010 and Feb 2018 which I posted about in both the snow streamer thread and the favourite archive chart thread but still way short of those snow amounts in Michigan! 

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we had over 20 cm of snow at the weekend and got down to -30c overnight Sunday into Monday..the real downside is having to shovel the snow from your drive and the pavements..4 or 5 times in the same period..it really is a ball ache :snowman-emoji:

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1 hour ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

No worries @Hotspur61 I am probably the biggest snow addict ever 😀 some truly amazing snowfall amounts and also lots of other snow / cold records being broken across USA and Scandinavia, yes the only comparable events here were November 2010 and Feb 2018 which I posted about in both the snow streamer thread and the favourite archive chart thread but still way short of those snow amounts in Michigan! 

Yes Michigan does well for snow. Especially the western & northern side as bitter NW winds flow over Lake Michigan & Lake Superior creating those insane lake effect snows. Like you say I suppose it's a bit like what we see in the UK when we get beasts from the east - very cold air generating convection over the North Sea.

Edited by Frost HoIIow

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USNIC this morning..

(nice to see these amazing amounts of snow).

Snow little changed (but does not show the increased snow in the USA!)....  with 'locally' decreases in the Pyrenees, however small additions in Scotland and the Alps   .

Ice is going through a period of generalised gains,  with no major area decreasing and just about all areas recording moderate gains. Kara and Baffin look to be the best performers today.

Back later with the detail from Masie., when I expect to see a gain between 60 - 100K Km2 today. 

MIA

 

image.thumb.png.c6c19a2cdc7b2aa82abae2f2ebfd074c.png

Edited by Midlands Ice Age

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Thanks for another update MIA, it is certainly nice to see the Kara sea freezing over so quickly this year, and indeed the whole NE Atlantic area rallying somewhat.

1865189049_ScreenShot2019-11-13at09_58_11.thumb.png.17128f8139729dca0e4496a29e8c14cd.png

I just find it so sad that in these days of global heating, the Arctic's cold seems to have to pick its battles. If one region sees average or below average temperatures it is now always offset by anomalous/extreme warmth elsewhere. The days of getting sustained below average temperatures on both sides of the pole seem to be behind us.

Only 30 years ago, the ice north of Barrow Point, Alaska, would some summers barely recede from the coast at all. Now, in mid-November, two months after the minimum there are still hundreds of miles of open water left in the Beaufort sea.

N_198109_extn_hires_v3.0.thumb.png.a64a0e43d0e154530fb794f3f95c96f0.png 1976748996_ScreenShot2019-11-13at09_58_34.thumb.png.2f3c3b39addb4f33d99b9ee9ef7425af.pngN_201910_extn_hires_v3.0.thumb.png.41a316d5badae44372653b81d93f94d2.png

I particularly worry about the Chucki sea, though. This year is really bad, even in comparison to the previous decade, which itself has been consistently below par (see the image from November 2011 below). It feels like the early melting and commensurate rise in water temperatures is starting to take its toll in this part of the Arctic. Refreeze is later, spring thicknesses are way down and, combined with that, weather patterns seem less and less conducive to extended periods of extreme cold taking hold.

 1893527639_ScreenShot2019-11-13at09_52_23.thumb.png.d3f6d8135d828a84e22bbc1ca96518c8.png 694969640_ScreenShot2019-11-13at09_58_23.thumb.png.6290125503b02a19853c0a68715481c1.png N_201111_extn_hires_v3.0.thumb.png.e6e40d8c09f477dff0a9f47b7877bee9.png

Hopefully, the cold air that is expected to move into the Chucki in the next few days will help the dwindling ice cover to rapidly expand, but I just worry that we're very close to, if not already past, a tipping point in this part of the world.

Selfishly, its been wonderful to see the low temps in our neck of the woods. Scandinavia, in particular, has had an impressive cold spell of late. Now, it seems that the focus of the Arctic's fury is shifting to North America for a time. Hopefully, it will revisit Europe again before too long!

 

Edited by Stravaiger

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Thanks for your reply and comments above.....

It is undoubtedly true that the Pacific side of the Arctic has 'struggled' for  the last few years.

However, I believe,  all is not lost.

Beaufort as you have shown from the Masie time chart went thru a very bad period about 2-3 weeks ago.

It is now catching up with its normal rates of 'icing'

.image.thumb.png.62af3e817162c586f342c5d0091c8034.png

 

Chukchi is a disaster this year - no way of avoiding that … (as you show in your chart )

However, remember that the longer it stays ice free then the more it is going to cool down. (via more heat loss).

However the one absolute factor which 'cheers' me this year is that the Bering Straits, (remember that is the entry of the Pacific), is freezing more quickly.  (see graph below).  That does not tie in with the 'Pacification' theory. 

image.thumb.png.325a46ce3b264723be28ebbf85999201.png

In addition to the quick freeze in the 'western'  Atlantic front, we now have the extreme East showing signs of change at the same tiime.

Is it temporary?  Time will tell.

But if it stays around then it will mean a quicker refreeze into the Pacific, via the SOO.

So at this moment in time, the situation is not clear. It is too early to start to claim disaster.

We have not seen the Atlantic ice front  perform this way  for about 10 years. (maybe more).

Is what is occurring in the east (Chukchi, and  mainly the last 2-5 years) temporary? Is it caused mainly by the entry of warmer waters from the Pacific into Bering? Or is it the persistent high temperature anomaly being shown for Chukchi in particular?  If so, has it anything to do with the high levels of stratospheric ozone over exactly  the area under examination?

I feel we need to wait and see how this develops. As Fred (aka BFTP) has suggested it could be that oceanic factors are beginning to change, and that they will play a greater and greater part in what develops over the next few years.

Is the 'low solar'  impacting this year?

However - no one knows - yet.

 

MIA 

Edited by Midlands Ice Age

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@Midlands Ice Age looking at the temperatures it looks like the summer temperatures are average but winter temperatures way too high but during summer a lot of ice is lost, so probably the ice that gets formed isn't that thick and melts easily. So we probably can't say anything until September 2020

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2 hours ago, ArHu3 said:

@Midlands Ice Age looking at the temperatures it looks like the summer temperatures are average but winter temperatures way too high but during summer a lot of ice is lost, so probably the ice that gets formed isn't that thick and melts easily. So we probably can't say anything until September 2020

Absolutely, correct,  and I recognise that.

However, if a change is happening, it may well take longer than that. (your Sept 2020)

Remember it has taken 40 years to get where we are today.

For the reasons you allude to above, any change will show up in the basin first.  The outer and peripheral ice will melt completely for a while yet. 

This year the CAA(Central pack) has frozen up in extent earlier than for 10-15 years, and it was also just about the only ice left in the Arctic at the end of the melt season, It is this ice that I would expect to show changes, if we are not on the ever descending staircase.

Central ice  dropped to about 2,970K Km2 minimum in the summer (Masie).This is an increase on the previous 5 years.  The definition of  'Ice free Arctic' has been defined as less than 1,000K Km2 at peak melt. So despite all you may hear, we are quite a way from it at the moment.

We are all going to have to be patient. I hope I am around to witness the outcome of all of this!!!.

MIA

 

 

Edited by Midlands Ice Age

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Masie today..

I think it is the first time that I can remember that there was an ice increase in all  sea areas currently active...

Masie showed a century gain (+109K Km2) well above average for the time of year.

Some interesting largish gainers were both Beaufort and Chukchi  (again)...

Back later as have to go out now.

MIA 

Edited by Midlands Ice Age

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Masie today 

As reported earlier a total ice out.

Beaufort(+19K), Chukchi(+11K), ESS(+4K), Kara(+14K), Barents(+15K), Greenland(+6K), Baffin(+24K), Hudson(+19K),and rather poorly CAB(+1K) make an impressive list. The smaller sea areas of Bering, Baltic and SOO all gained but smaller amounts.

The above is not that unusual. But what is this????

It all occurred on a day when DMI (above 80 deg latitude temperatures) increased by nearly 4C.

image.thumb.png.6a615020d07ad7c162a15e270d624dd3.png

Presumably a change of wind has had some effect, but more oddities are occurring regularly now.

One can only assume that the open waters are now cold enough to refreeze without the aid of a lowering surface 2M temperature.  It will be interesting to see the output temps being recorded by the Mosaic team and their buoy data..

But they seem to remain  silent at the moment. 


MiA

Edited by Midlands Ice Age

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On 10/11/2019 at 09:53, Aleman said:

Can Northern Hemisphere snow extent beat the record this year?

Rutgers show 14 of the last 17 winters were above average and that includes 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th highest.

CLIMATE.RUTGERS.EDU

Rutgers University Global Snow Lab

GMASI has us tracking equal with the highest since 2006

GLOBALCRYOSPHEREWATCH.ORG

That must put us 2nd equal and not so far off Rutgers high of 77-78? (I remember that one. Big drifts caused a post office van to be abandoned on our road until they managed to reopen it after a full week.)

Anybody got a source that can tie this together in one graph - a seasonal comparison going back 50 years?

Aleman..

I found another paper for you (2018),and the guy has examined and produced a graph which could well answer your needs.

https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/files/Robinson_snowdata2018.pdf

The graph is the following -

Robinson_snowdata2018.pdf

It includes a reference to a dataset which contains all the monthly data for the last 50years.

It has a summary of 2018 as follows.

Summary bullet points

Quote
1. Annual snow cover extent (SCE) over Northern Hemisphere lands averaged 25.6 million
square kilometers in 2018. This is 0.5 million sq. km. more than the 49-year average, and
ranks as the 12th most extensive cover on record of the satellite era.
2. Both Eurasia and North America had above average SCE in January-April and October-
December.
3. May-June continued a decadal tendency toward below average SCE.

Unquote 

The diff map on  Rutgers itself shows that 2019 is also running above average -

image.png 

 

 

The data itself shows that Oct 2019 was in 5th position out of 52 in the rankings of the years.

 

MIA

 

Edited by Midlands Ice Age

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