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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

@Midlands Ice Age some more 

 

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl

 

Kirkaldy Weather

Thanks for the above (again).

So..

My point about it was/is not (yet?) an official Ozone hole is still correct.

It has not yet reached 220 DP. I had  checked on yesterdays and todays Ozone chart and there is no sign of any 'blue'.

I suspect that someone is getting a little desperate to be the first to report an event.

 

The point I was making about the Antarctic was about as true as the BBC claims of highest ever recorded, (and  I had not been aware of the latest claims).

In your post (link) it says the highest recorded on the Antarctic continent was 19.8C recorded in Jan 1983. I had read about that somewhere and I was going to try and find it.  So previous claims (about the same date in Feb 2020 (of this new claim )  of an Antarctic  record  of 18.3C were false.  I must say I think I had also seen 18.9C mentioned somewhere also.

It would seem that (about the same time) Seymour Island had recorded this 20.7C, and so they are now pushing this as the new record due to the dodgy nature of the first claim..

But.. 1)  this island is as close to South America as it is to the Antarctic continent.  Its like the Faroe Islands are to Scotland and Iceland, or more likely  Madeira and Spain.

2) Seymour  island does not appear to have weather records stretching back to 1982. What could it have been then on the date when the 19.8C was recorded?.  To me it looked like a perfect set up for Fohn effect winds, with high mountains and a flat sea plain.

3) The last couple of weeks Seymour Island has seen temps on average just below zero with heavy snow at times. Today it suddenly leapt to a max of 11C !, tomorrow it will be back to 0C according to forecasts. 

It is perfectly positioned to pick up rapidly changing atmospheric conditions  (rather like the UK or Norway), with one day it around  -5C as cold air is brought up from the Peninsula and then the next day it can bring down the air from South America and jump by 15 -  20C..  A passing anticyclone can easily create a Fohn, and ridiculous temps.

I also remember the same claims happened over the Fohn effects in Norway and Scotland during January.

Again thanks KW 

All from me.  as I do not want to drag the forum off-target. 

Back later with Masie.

MIA 

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl

As promised Masie update for today...

A gain of 46K Km2, back up to over 15.000KKm2 by 5 Km2. So it has made up most of yesterdays loss and it is now the 5th day above 'the barrier'. Another parameter/limit  I have set, and I will use it to compare.!

Most of the gain is in Barents (+60K), which has now gone to a record for the year so far at 775K Km2 (highest for 5 years,but well down on the 1,000K Km2 on some years in the 80's). Greenland also gained slightly, but losses in Bering today limited growth.

Temperatures are still looking promising for continued ice growth, as even CR now shows temps -1.0C below normal.

Remember this is for the whole 'Arctic' not  the same for DMI which is just for above 80 degrees north.

However, temperatures in the Central Arctic are now falling as high pressure takes over. From this it looks as if the days of the Polar Vortex are now numbered. It certainly has given a good ride this year. 

An interesting pattern is now setting up  with slack areas of low pressure guarding both the east and west entrances to the Arctic, and very cold air over Canada now being joined by extreme cold (finally) over Central Siberia. 

image.thumb.png.2d440f8158a569c2e26424637ff939f3.png   and    image.thumb.png.9c383208d10ad35820f58e6ea76be63c.png

 

GFS still foresees even lower temperatures with -60C still being touted in Greenland extending out into the Pole itself.

There is still at least one month for the ice thickness to increase, but nothing on a daily basis to watch this happen now that the DMI graphs are stuck back on Feb 17th. I guess the twice monthly reports on the ASIF should be out soon, and will have to suffice.

Out this evening - have a good weekend - stay healthy!

MIA

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Greenland seems to be locked into intense cold which won’t go away.  Also next week onwards forecasts for the intense arctic cold to expand itself southward, very cold Spring except for us of course

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

You won't here any of that in the news

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

Bravo Muka, fantastic post. Could not have put it better myself. 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
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On 06/03/2020 at 10:58, Midlands Ice Age said:

In your post (link) it says the highest recorded on the Antarctic continent was 19.8C recorded in Jan 1983. I had read about that somewhere and I was going to try and find it.  So previous claims (about the same date in Feb 2020 (of this new claim )  of an Antarctic  record  of 18.3C were false.  I must say I think I had also seen 18.9C mentioned somewhere also.

It would seem that (about the same time) Seymour Island had recorded this 20.7C, and so they are now pushing this as the new record due to the dodgy nature of the first claim..

But.. 1)  this island is as close to South America as it is to the Antarctic continent.  Its like the Faroe Islands are to Scotland and Iceland, or more likely  Madeira and Spain.

 

The 19.8°C was from Signy Island.

Seymour Island is only little over 40 miles from the Antarctic mainland, but further south than the tip of the Antarctic peninsula -  so actually it's Antarctica which is closer to South America than Seymour Island, go figure.

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Posted
  • Location: Central Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Polar lows are the dream
  • Location: Central Scotland
On 08/03/2020 at 02:08, Mucka said:

"Hottest day ever," yeah if "ever" is 0.0000001% of recorded Earth history  in one specific place at the height of its summer on the periphery of the antarctic.

I think we should all doing our bit to ensure a cleaner planet and cutting pollution, that's common sense, but the idea that the Earth atmosphere and climate is somehow right now at some perfect equilibrium that has always existed is asinine.

1, CO2 is a trace gas that makes approx 0.035% if atmosphere

2, Man made CO2 (which is still part of the carbon cycle) makes up around 3.5% of that so total man made CO2 is 0.001% of atmosphere.

3. On the geological scale Earth is CO2 starved, it has almost always had more CO2 in the atmosphere.

4. The Earth had 20X the amount of CO2 than now for hundreds of millions of years and thrived (no runaway warming)

5, The polar ice caps are not the normal state of Earth, they only appear during ice ages and recede in interglacial periods such as we are now in.

6. When Earth has had far more CO2 in atmoshphere than now it was green, temperate and saw explosions in diversity of life.

7. China alone is responsible for more CO2 than Europe and US put together!

8. The global financiers who invented carbon taxes and deindustrialised the west are the same people who left China exempt and invested there making trillions

9. Many so called green energies have worse greenhouses gases than clean burning coal plants, wind turbines for example create more CO2 and use SF6 most powerful GH gas!

10. If every car in Britain stopped tomorrow there would over very many decades be around 0.00001% less CO2 in the atmosphere, if replaced by electric cars that figure would be much less impactful still.

 

We have to ignore everything we know about 99.99999999% of the data and take the carefully manicured 0.000000001% and extrapolate from that the idea that a mammal that is just part of the carbon cycle over a tiny period of time is doing more harm (creating runaway warming and stripping the atmosphere) that extinction events such as asteroids, super volcanoes failed to do over billions of years! And that humans creating roughly an extra 0.001% CO2 in the atmosphere (3% of 0.035%) over this period when the Earth has historically low CO2 levels is going to kill the Earth when it flourished when CO2 was twenty times higher for hundreds of millions of years!

But instead of shutting down the lunatics who tell us the Earth will die in ten years and we need zero CO2 emissions to save the planet and to eat insects and god knows what else, they are headlined and exalted while those who dare point out some actual inconvenient truths instead of convenient lies are censored  and vilified. 

This means that lunatic policies cannot be properly debated, it why we shut down clean burning coals plants and at a cost of untold billions built wind farms which some studies show are even more polluting and we pay twice as much for our energy for the privilege. Meanwhile the worlds biggest polluters by far are left exempt and Greta has found no need of her Chinese phrase book surprise, surprise.

There are things that can and should be done to make our air and water cleaner and processing and manufacturing much more environment friendly without destroying peoples jobs and lives or impoverishing wealthy nations and bringing them under neo feudalistic globalism where the elite mock the useful idiots from their private islands.

 

@Mucka - with respect, I don't think you're framing this correctly.

Everything you say about CO2 being a trace gas is true. As is the fact that the Earth (and life on it) will cope just fine over geological timescales even if humans push the planet's average temperatures into a warmer stable-state.

That said, thinking about this issue from a geological perspective ignores the crux of the issue, which is the suffering - human and non-human - that it will cause in the coming decades and centuries.

Rather than worrying about whether it's important that you "do your bit" and buy an electric car, think about the people and animals who are already suffering as a result of the *impacts* of the increase of this trace gas, CO2, in the atmosphere, which has occurred rapidly since the industrial revolution. These impacts are here already, clear as day.

co2_data_mlo.thumb.png.2df5b209499573a1661d4bcc5e6210f5.png

Sea ice is decreasing in extent and thickness. Not great if you're someone who relies on it for travel, hunting, food or security. Not great for the knock-on effects it will have on our climate.

Figure3.thumb.png.febdc1b06878d29ec564a8f75426c58b.png

Sea-levels are rising, with many Pacific Islanders and people in southern Asia already suffering as a consequence. It is certain that some Pacific Island nations are going to become uninhabitable this century. Imagine if that was your home disappearing beneath the waves.

Or perhaps, consider if you owned a ski resort or a winter-sports business. Would you be thinking so abstractly and calmly about Earth's long term climate trends or would it be causing you stress and suffering in the here and now?

What if Australia's climate-linked bushfires had just ripped through your community??

The impacts of climate change and the human suffering they are causing and will continue to cause cannot be disregarded. If the climate changes too rapidly, agricultural businesses will be destroyed, fisheries will collapse, timber-producing forests will burn, etc., etc., all of which will cause immediate economic harm to those affected.

I agree that we desperately need China and India to join this fight, along with every other nation and corporation on the planet. But even if those entities are slow on the uptake we have to continue trying to reduce our greenhouse footprint as much as possible, taking into account the complexities re economic trade-offs that you rightly raise.

 

Edited by Stravaiger
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
8 hours ago, Interitus said:

The 19.8°C was from Signy Island.

Seymour Island is only little over 40 miles from the Antarctic mainland, but further south than the tip of the Antarctic peninsula -  so actually it's Antarctica which is closer to South America than Seymour Island, go figure.

Thanks Interitus…  I  have figured

If you choose the 'flat earth' projection I show below, then you may have a case.

image.thumb.png.ee4ecf8d8b1d45b4c19737561c8d885f.png

In my comments I made the comment about the Antarctic continent landmass (remiss of me), and   not  the Western Peninsular stretching up for nearly 1000 miles into the Atlantic/Pacific Oceans.

The west Peninsula is an 'add on' to Antarctica from a weather viewpoint  (IMO). It is a bit like saying   'that the Scilly Islands (and St Mary Island in particular) is representative of Gt Britain.

If you use a much better projection of the area  that I show below, you will see it is much closer to the Southern  America,(with a scale and realistic projection to match), than to the main Antarctic continent. Yes it is only about  25 to 50 miles from the Western peninsula, but so is St Mary's from the Silly Island!!! Also St Mary's would never claim to be representative of Scotland (also about 500miles away) ~    maybe just of the Scilly Islands?.

 

image.thumb.png.a2c693051f09a87caee4ac31a950f18d.png 

 

MIA

Back later with the Masie news

 

 

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15 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Thanks Interitus…  I  have figured

If you choose the 'flat earth' projection I show below, then you may have a case.

image.thumb.png.ee4ecf8d8b1d45b4c19737561c8d885f.png

In my comments I made the comment about the Antarctic continent landmass (remiss of me), and   not  the Western Peninsular stretching up for nearly 1000 miles into the Atlantic/Pacific Oceans.

The west Peninsula is an 'add on' to Antarctica from a weather viewpoint  (IMO). It is a bit like saying   'that the Scilly Islands (and St Mary Island in particular) is representative of Gt Britain.

If you use a much better projection of the area  that I show below, you will see it is much closer to the Southern  America,(with a scale and realistic projection to match), than to the main Antarctic continent. Yes it is only about  25 to 50 miles from the Western peninsula, but so is St Mary's from the Silly Island!!! Also St Mary's would never claim to be representative of Scotland (also about 500miles away) ~    maybe just of the Scilly Islands?.

 

image.thumb.png.a2c693051f09a87caee4ac31a950f18d.png 

 

MIA

Back later with the Masie news

 

 

Not really, the northern extent of the Antarctic peninsula is exaggerated by its proximity to the Weddell sea which reaches much further south (though is frozen most of the time so is effectively 'land') there are parts of the eastern Antarctic which are also outside the Antarctic circle.

Nothing to do with map projection, Marambio base on Seymour Island is at 64°14' S, nine degrees south of Cape Horn. The equal distance further south at 73° is well into much of the mainland. Marambio is also marginally closer to the South Pole than Nuuk / Godthab, the capital of Greenland is to the North Pole. Is Nuuk not part of Greenland proper? What also must be remembered is that the most extreme cold is at high altitude from sites such as Amundsen-Scott (South Pole) at 9300 feet or Vostok 11,400 feet. In that regard similar to Summit on Greenland at 10500 feet and, incidentally, just shy of 73°N.

Whatever, Marambio is substantially colder than Nuuk, mean daily temperatures are below freezing all year round. The last fast ice round Seymour island retreated this year after mid-January, the equivalent of mid-July in the northern hemisphere would be well into the Arctic circle, and now at the end of summer ice floes still circle the island. As such, a temperature reading above 20 degrees is notable regardless of how the significance of a single Fohn event is viewed. However, the Antarctic peninsula has warmed, with the associated reduction and loss of ice shelves eg Prince Gustav, Larsen A etc. And it doesn't have to be representative of the whole continent to be the highest temperature recorded any more than the cooler parts of the UK were represented by Cambridge last year for example.

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
1 hour ago, Interitus said:

Not really, the northern extent of the Antarctic peninsula is exaggerated by its proximity to the Weddell sea which reaches much further south (though is frozen most of the time so is effectively 'land') there are parts of the eastern Antarctic which are also outside the Antarctic circle.

Nothing to do with map projection, Marambio base on Seymour Island is at 64°14' S, nine degrees south of Cape Horn. The equal distance further south at 73° is well into much of the mainland. Marambio is also marginally closer to the South Pole than Nuuk / Godthab, the capital of Greenland is to the North Pole. Is Nuuk not part of Greenland proper? What also must be remembered is that the most extreme cold is at high altitude from sites such as Amundsen-Scott (South Pole) at 9300 feet or Vostok 11,400 feet. In that regard similar to Summit on Greenland at 10500 feet and, incidentally, just shy of 73°N.

Whatever, Marambio is substantially colder than Nuuk, mean daily temperatures are below freezing all year round. The last fast ice round Seymour island retreated this year after mid-January, the equivalent of mid-July in the northern hemisphere would be well into the Arctic circle, and now at the end of summer ice floes still circle the island. As such, a temperature reading above 20 degrees is notable regardless of how the significance of a single Fohn event is viewed. However, the Antarctic peninsula has warmed, with the associated reduction and loss of ice shelves eg Prince Gustav, Larsen A etc. And it doesn't have to be representative of the whole continent to be the highest temperature recorded any more than the cooler parts of the UK were represented by Cambridge last year for example.

2) No one that I have heard of disputes that Cambridge is representative and is a part of the climate of the UK?

1) When the average person  think about the Arctic they think about the Arctic Ocean. They do not think about Greenland, Canada, Alaska or even Siberia. A new recent historical new  low in Siberia in early December was not 'sold'  as being a record low for the Arctic. Very cold air in Alaska was not touted as a general cooling of the whole Arctic. Recent very cold air in Greenland is not thought of as being  representative low for the Arctic. 

That was the original point I was making, and that is that the perception is that the whole Antarctic ice cap will soon disappear.  

The island of Seymour is equivalent to about 1 pixel on the extreme top  left hand edge of your TV/PC  screen.

But people now  think that a record high has been made in Antarctica, and that the ice of the continent is thus about to melt away.

They do not realise that it is one event in one place, which is about as far away as you can get on the Antarctic continent.

I suppose its all in the selling! (Guardian, BBC, etc)

Do we have a trade descriptions act on  'the selling off of'  Sea Ice?

 

On a more technical/ serious note,  I see that the Antarctic (according to Jaxa) has undergone a record (since 2002) start to its refeeze season

From the ASIF we have the following comments and a graph -

 'In the last 4 days 4 days of 100,000+ km2 extent gain, unprecedented at least since 2002 at this time of year.

- 2019 is 23rd lowest in the satellite record since 1979,'

and 

index.php?action=dlattach;topic=1759.0;a                      and    index.php?action=dlattach;topic=1759.0;a

Should we not be selling this also, as it involves the whole of the Antarctic coastline?

MIA 

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
12 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

2) No one that I have heard of disputes that Cambridge is representative and is a part of the climate of the UK?

1) when the average person  think about the Arctic they think about the Arctic Ocean. They do not think about Greenland, Canada, Alaska or even Siberia. A new recent historical new  low in Siberia in early December was not 'sold'  as being a record low for the Arctic. Very cold air in Alaska was not touted as a general cooling of the whole Arctic. Recent very cold air in Greenland is not thought of as being  representative low for the Arctic. 

That was the original point I was making. That is that the perception is that the whole Antarctic ice cap will soon disappear. 

The island of Seymour is equivalent to about 1 pixel on the extreme top  left hand edge of your TV/PC  screen.

But people now  think that a record high has been made in Antarctica, and that the ice of the continent is thus about to melt away.

They do not realise that it is one event in one place, which is about as far away as you can get on the Antarctic continent.

I suppose its all in the selling!

Do we have a trade descriptions act on  'the selling off of'  Sea Ice?

 

On a more technical note,  I see that the Antarctic (according to Jaxa) has undergone a record (since 2002) start to itsfeeze season

From the ASIF we have the following comments and a graph -

 'In the last 4 days 4 days of 100,000+ km2 extent gain, unprecedented at least since 2002 at this time of year.

- 2019 is 23rd lowest in the satellite record since 1979,'

and 

 

MIA 

Whilst I've found your Arctic ice-data quite useful (thank you for them:oldgood:), isn't your above post just a litany of half-baked assumptions (I, for example, tend to think of places in which people live..when I think of the Arctic) and straw man hypotheses: who on Earth thinks that the Antarctic Continent is about to become ice-free?:search:

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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York
3 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Whilst I've found your Arctic ice-data quite useful (thank you for them:oldgood:), isn't your above post just a litany of half-baked assumptions (I, for example, tend to think of places in which people live..when I think of the Arctic) and straw man hypotheses: who on Earth thinks that the Antarctic Continent is about to be ice-free?:search:

It about the perception portrayed and more often than not these high temperatures are sold/portrayed in a manner to mislead or get people thinking that the Antarctic or the artic is melting faster than it actually is. As for the bit in bold isn't that just your normal approach to undermine and discredit someone who is providing info that's bucking the assumed trend

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
1 minute ago, General Cluster said:

Whilst I've found your Arctic ice-data quite useful (thank you for them:oldgood:), isn't your above post just a litany of half-baked assumptions (I, for example, tend to think of places in which people live..when I think of the Arctic) and straw man hypotheses: who on Earth thinks that the Antarctic Continent is about to become ice-free?:search:

 

1 minute ago, General Cluster said:

Whilst I've found your Arctic ice-data quite useful (thank you for them:oldgood:), isn't your above post just a litany of half-baked assumptions (I, for example, tend to think of places in which people live..when I think of the Arctic) and straw man hypotheses: who on Earth thinks that the Antarctic Continent is about to become ice-free?:search:

 

Ed..

 My perception is different to yours then.

I just think of the Arctic as being a total icy wasteland from one side to the other....

(As represented by the Mosaic project).

Most/many people, (who are not interested in climate, weather, etc),  are,  after listening to the BBC, convinced that the planet is doomed. There was no explanation that it was at the extreme tip of the warmest part of Antarctica.  That is the whole point of the discussion.

You clearly understand the significance, but the vast part  of the population do not?

PS Please also see my 'added on' comments on the post above. 

MIA 

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Posted
  • Location: Fettercain/Edzell
  • Location: Fettercain/Edzell
18 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

 

 

Ed..

 My perception is different to yours then.

I just think of the Arctic as being a total icy wasteland from one side to the other....

(As represented by the Mosaic project).

Most/many people, (who are not interested in climate, weather, etc),  are,  after listening to the BBC, convinced that the planet is doomed. There was no explanation that it was at the extreme tip of the warmest part of Antarctica.  That is the whole point of the discussion.

You clearly understand the significance, but the vast part  of the population do not?

PS Please also see my 'added on' comments on the post above. 

MIA 

For the avoidance of doubt, and with reference to your railing against BBC reporting;

This latest reading was taken at a monitoring station on Seymour Island, part of a chain of islands off the same peninsula, at the northernmost point of the continent.

Although the temperature is a record high, Mr Schaefer emphasized that the reading was not part of a wider study and so, in itself, could not be used to predict a trend.

"We can't use this to anticipate climatic changes in the future. It's a data point," he said. "It's simply a signal that something different is happening in that area."

 

_110901738_gettyimages-84670570.jpg
WWW.BBC.CO.UK

The temperature was recorded on an island off the Antarctic continent's northern tip.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Co. Meath, Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather, thunderstorms, snow
  • Location: Co. Meath, Ireland
12 hours ago, ciel said:

For the avoidance of doubt, and with reference to your railing against BBC reporting;

This latest reading was taken at a monitoring station on Seymour Island, part of a chain of islands off the same peninsula, at the northernmost point of the continent.

Although the temperature is a record high, Mr Schaefer emphasized that the reading was not part of a wider study and so, in itself, could not be used to predict a trend.

"We can't use this to anticipate climatic changes in the future. It's a data point," he said. "It's simply a signal that something different is happening in that area."

 

_110901738_gettyimages-84670570.jpg
WWW.BBC.CO.UK

The temperature was recorded on an island off the Antarctic continent's northern tip.

 

There’s no doubt whatsoever that the article is an attempt to peddle the doomsday prophecy. One doesn’t have to scroll very far to even find the word doomsday. In addition to this you get a nice pic of terrified penguins running around wondering where all the ice has gone.

That’s just my opinion on it and to each their own.
 

.....and thanks to @Midlands Ice Age for your regular updates, your posts are incredibly informative and well put together.

81E337B2-9F6F-4563-A796-1A69CB300323.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
12 hours ago, ciel said:

For the avoidance of doubt, and with reference to your railing against BBC reporting;

This latest reading was taken at a monitoring station on Seymour Island, part of a chain of islands off the same peninsula, at the northernmost point of the continent.

Although the temperature is a record high, Mr Schaefer emphasized that the reading was not part of a wider study and so, in itself, could not be used to predict a trend.

"We can't use this to anticipate climatic changes in the future. It's a data point," he said. "It's simply a signal that something different is happening in that area."

 

_110901738_gettyimages-84670570.jpg
WWW.BBC.CO.UK

The temperature was recorded on an island off the Antarctic continent's northern tip.

 

Thanks Ciel…  

I am aware of that. It is just that the BBC environmental and energy head (Roger Harrabin?) did not explain any of that when he put it out on the BBC 10:00  news broadcast. It was portrayed as a major event, and he even mentioned that it complemented the rapid decline of the Greenland ice sheets (which he had witnessed at first hand, etc,etc,etc - on the one really bad day for the Greenland ice sheet last year), - and he has told us about it on many occasions....

The  vast majority of the population do not know anything about what constitutes the geography of either the Arctic or the Antarctic.

The BBC TV news environmentalist team  do not seem to want to put any sort of a  balanced view (which is quite frequently the correct one - as you correctly point out above on this occasion).

That is the whole point of this debate.

Currently Global Sea ice is in its best position for at least 15 years, and currently resides in  23 highest amount in the last 41 years. 

 

MIA

 

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl

Whilst I am here a not very good update from the Mosaic project, after a 4-5day lull in news..

The KD (icebreaker send to restock the PS), has insufficient fuel to get back out of the ice.

They are having to send out yet another ice breaker to relieve them.

More  frightening still is that the 'airsquad' of about 20men have been send home and quarantined in their homes, after one of them contracted the virus. Hopefully it does not get onboard....  but the joint airborne data they were hoping to collect  at or  near the pole will have to wait for a while yet, and may not happen.

MIA 

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
On 11/03/2020 at 10:55, General Cluster said:

Whilst I've found your Arctic ice-data quite useful (thank you for them:oldgood:), isn't your above post just a litany of half-baked assumptions (I, for example, tend to think of places in which people live..when I think of the Arctic) and straw man hypotheses: who on Earth thinks that the Antarctic Continent is about to become ice-free?:search:

Most of the gullible population Pete.  I invigilate now after my retirement and when it comes to geography there is so much ignorance out there even with GCSE youngsters....they don’t even know what county Sheffield is in.....

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl

What with one thing and another..  (away at the weekend, car problems, shopping , reading blogs on COVID 19, etc) . 

Just realised that I have not updated for about a week.

So here goes from Masie.

Extent has probably reached the maximum a week ago, as since then there has been two massive drops. Volume (and thickness) continue to rise for a while yet. 

Gains/losses in extent over the last few days of (-180K), (-50K), (+24K), (+43K), (+20K), (+53K),and today of (-129K) have left the extent  -114K Km2 below 15.000KKm2.

Some surprising results there considering that the first massive loss occurred when the DMI temp (see below) was it its lowest for 5 years, and the recent drop has occurred as it levelled off after its sharp rise (whilst the ice regrew!!).

More confirmation of my previous comments that the rise in  extent is almost inversely related to the temperature at this time of year. It is probably caused by loss of ice due to wind changes in the perimeter areas, as the weather changes over the Arctic.

Todays loss is mainly in the SOO and Barents.

image.thumb.png.989a49cb0b78999bcafdf46f215053c4.png

Severe cyclonic weather is forecast over the Arctic in the next few days, with temperatures remaining below average initially before rising again in a couple of days, but warmer air has already returned to Bering and Chukchi (as  per before the Xmas period). 

image.thumb.png.870a7a22fed8f04ba6474b1357ed45be.png     and    image.thumb.png.9e207f3a9201b674f8de4ff50d01e2a9.png

 

This years refreeze since January shows similarities to the one we saw in 2012, where an early season average extent  values dropped off the cliff in August when the Great Arctic Cyclone (GAC) took over. We must hope that  the same thing does not happen again this year.

In other news  the general Arctic Ocean has been rocked by 4 quite large earthquakes (R4 - 5.5) over the last month. These have occurred whilst a blizzard of smaller earthquakes have been occurring off Iceland, these are being discussed in the Earthquake thread..

These 4  major earthquakes have occurred in the ridge just west of Svalbard, and also a bit further north of Svalbard at the entrance to the Fram Straight.  Activity was last recorded about 5 years ago in these areas, and it is obvious that the tectonic plates around the arctic are becoming restless. 

The Mosaic project is now being disrupted by other large cracks (leads) that are being caused by the high winds over the pole. They had prepared (piste bashing) a runway for the use of various aircraft, but that has to be now re-developed, as the whole area has been isolated by the openings in the ice .  At least they now have some daylight in which to see the dangers.    

MIA

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

@Midlands Ice Age 

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey
On 13/03/2020 at 22:34, Midlands Ice Age said:

What with one thing and another..  (away at the weekend, car problems, shopping , reading blogs on COVID 19, etc) . 

Just realised that I have not updated for about a week.

So here goes from Masie.

Extent has probably reached the maximum a week ago, as since then there has been two massive drops. Volume (and thickness) continue to rise for a while yet. 

Gains/losses in extent over the last few days of (-180K), (-50K), (+24K), (+43K), (+20K), (+53K),and today of (-129K) have left the extent  -114K Km2 below 15.000KKm2.

Some surprising results there considering that the first massive loss occurred when the DMI temp (see below) was it its lowest for 5 years, and the recent drop has occurred as it levelled off after its sharp rise (whilst the ice regrew!!).

More confirmation of my previous comments that the rise in  extent is almost inversely related to the temperature at this time of year. It is probably caused by loss of ice due to wind changes in the perimeter areas, as the weather changes over the Arctic.

Todays loss is mainly in the SOO and Barents.

image.thumb.png.989a49cb0b78999bcafdf46f215053c4.png

Severe cyclonic weather is forecast over the Arctic in the next few days, with temperatures remaining below average initially before rising again in a couple of days, but warmer air has already returned to Bering and Chukchi (as  per before the Xmas period). 

image.thumb.png.870a7a22fed8f04ba6474b1357ed45be.png     and    image.thumb.png.9e207f3a9201b674f8de4ff50d01e2a9.png

 

This years refreeze since January shows similarities to the one we saw in 2012, where an early season average extent  values dropped off the cliff in August when the Great Arctic Cyclone (GAC) took over. We must hope that  the same thing does not happen again this year.

In other news  the general Arctic Ocean has been rocked by 4 quite large earthquakes (R4 - 5.5) over the last month. These have occurred whilst a blizzard of smaller earthquakes have been occurring off Iceland, these are being discussed in the Earthquake thread..

These 4  major earthquakes have occurred in the ridge just west of Svalbard, and also a bit further north of Svalbard at the entrance to the Fram Straight.  Activity was last recorded about 5 years ago in these areas, and it is obvious that the tectonic plates around the arctic are becoming restless. 

The Mosaic project is now being disrupted by other large cracks (leads) that are being caused by the high winds over the pole. They had prepared (piste bashing) a runway for the use of various aircraft, but that has to be now re-developed, as the whole area has been isolated by the openings in the ice .  At least they now have some daylight in which to see the dangers.    

MIA

What are the chances that therese earthquakes are part of the reason for the big drops in extent. Surely water would amplify the effect and make any earthquake hit the ice harder and force some fracturing and losses on the extremes whilst any fractures near the pole would probably just refreeze in the current temperatures.

Just something that I was wondering.

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
18 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

@Midlands Ice Age 

 

 

 

Thanks KW..

It looks as if the drop in Ozone is confirmed now..

I am not sure, and I am certain that no one else is,  what is happening to the Stratospheric chemistry. 

How can all this be modelled correctly, when something like this suddenly happens?

It just so happens that a team in Switzerland have just issued an announcement in Science Advances  paper (no version currently linkable, but it is hugely reported ), on how they are attempting (and now claim to have succeeded) in mimicking the reactions of the stratosphere in a lab. They are particularly looking at the reactions of particulates and Ozone, but have not examined any correlated changes caused by varying  levels of CO2. 

However, already they have found that particulates themselves (mainly organic compounds, both natural and manmade) seem to end up as formic acid gas under the lab conditions mimicking stratospheric conditions, and, as up until now.  the assumption in the GCM's is that these particulates  remain static in the stratosphere, it is fairly obvious that any assumptions about say cloud formation (and parameters based there-on) could be totally wrong or even irrelevant.

So much to learn yet in the real science of climatology…..

MIA

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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