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Snow & Ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019/20


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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl

Masie has updated...

6 days since I last reported..

Has seen changes of (+76K, +50K, -36K,  +33K, -122K  and finally today +40K) for a net gain of 41K Km2  and an overall total of 14,578K Km2. Masie has it at second best since 2010, and Jaxa is still at 12th lowest in the last 15 years. 

A small dent in the hopes of achieving greater than 15,000K Km2 (for only the third time since 2010), since the maximum extent is normally around the first weeks of March. 

Barents has been the biggest loser  with -160K km2 loss over the 6days, as winds seem to have disrupted the ice and pushed it back north again towards the Arctic pack.

Greenland has similarly been effected with a loss (-28K).

Baffin  (incl, Labrador) leapt by 193K as the Labrador coastline re-froze.

Bering gained and then contracted but added +36Kin the 6 days, and SOO gained +16K being similarly impacted.

The smaller sea areas lost  with Baltic (-9K), Cooke Inlet (-4K) and the Yellow Sea  (-3K).

The temperatures over the last few days have been low for this year, Forecasts show an 'increase  (+1 to 2C), as a deep  cyclone forms in the  Kara and Barents and extending towards the UK -

image.thumb.png.b653814e5499cedad26f9988588983b8.png    image.thumb.png.4ad1c1273009bce63cd0e1c1c1005725.png

 

Can I suggest that the results from this could be unpredictable, with relative warmth being brought up from Central Western Russia but  storms form the North East are expected in the Central and  Barents Areas.

An interesting week ahead can be expected.

MIA

    

 

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Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex

There have been slight increases in the sea ice while the snow cover has hardly changed.

cursnow_asiaeurope Snow & Ice Chart Saturday 15th February 2020.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
2 hours ago, Hessle Owl said:

Look how snowless most of  Europe is must be highly unusual what an god awful winter. 

Indeed.  Even if we were to get a BFTE now, I can't see how it would deliver much of a punch!

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
5 hours ago, Katrine Basso said:

There have been slight increases in the sea ice while the snow cover has hardly changed.

cursnow_asiaeurope Snow & Ice Chart Saturday 15th February 2020.gif

And according to the Finns I know that map is definitely exaggerating the snow cover in southern Finland. There is none.

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: Hessle/Hull East Yorkshire
  • Location: Hessle/Hull East Yorkshire
3 hours ago, Don said:

Indeed.  Even if we were to get a BFTE now, I can't see how it would deliver much of a punch!

I would prefer an potent Northerly tbh but there have being as rare as hens teeth in recent times. Surely some parts of europe must be recording warmest winter on record? one off or an worrying trend ? Makes u think what might happen in summer with regards to heat espcially in mainland Europe. 

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
17 minutes ago, Hessle Owl said:

I would prefer an potent Northerly tbh but there have being as rare as hens teeth in recent times. Surely some parts of europe must be recording warmest winter on record? one off or an worrying trend ? Makes u think what might happen in summer with regards to heat espcially in mainland Europe. 

A northerly would most certainly be more beneficial to us at the moment with the cold air bottled up over the pole.  I would think this will be the mildest winter on record for parts of Europe at least.  Hopefully a one off but with climate change, it will likely become more common in future.  Europe certainly had some intense heat last summer, leading to the UK recording its highest temperature on record (38.7C) at Cambridge.  As to this coming summer, who knows?

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Posted
  • Location: Hessle/Hull East Yorkshire
  • Location: Hessle/Hull East Yorkshire
23 minutes ago, Don said:

A northerly would most certainly be more beneficial to us at the moment with the cold air bottled up over the pole.  I would think this will be the mildest winter on record for parts of Europe at least.  Hopefully a one off but with climate change, it will likely become more common in future.  Europe certainly had some intense heat last summer, leading to the UK recording its highest temperature on record (38.7C) at Cambridge.  As to this coming summer, who knows?

Interesting to note Moscow had it coldest August in 2019 on record maybe just natural variation and sort of one extreme to another. 

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl

Hi..  time for another update from Masie...

Latest total is 14.652K Km2.    72K Km2 higher than my last report on Thursday.

This was achieved by daily changes of (-81K, +42K,+60Kand finally +51K).

The attainment of reaching 15.000K Km2 is looking a bit less likely.

Another large drop in Barents has been made up in the last 2 Days (+8K). Elsewhere there were small losses still  in Greenland( -40K). Bering (+23k) and SOO(+55K) showed variability, but the smaller sea areas  have showed small gains in the last few days.

Losses on the Atlantic front were caused by the cyclone in Barents/Kara and Central which produced strong winds blowing off the Russian coastline, (sending the ice offshore) and compressed the ice on the Arctic front up into the Greenland area.

image.thumb.png.df8921a48673561e03277e5b98263560.png

Reports from the Mosaic project...  where they were expecting 'changeover' this week, is that the Kapitan Dranitsin (the ice breaker bringing their takeover crew and re-stocking) is having major problems reaching them now and is expected to be in about 10 days time. They had slowed to a crawl in the highly ridged ice conditions and the ice movement seems to be counter their direction of travel. Temperatures are still reported as being about -20 to -30C in the area, but reached -38C as the low passed over them.

However general improvement is expected in the next few days.

MIA

choose files...-Click to choose files.url

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
23 hours ago, Hessle Owl said:

Interesting to note Moscow had it coldest August in 2019 on record maybe just natural variation and sort of one extreme to another. 

If the UK is under a warm/hot spell, then Western Russia would probably be cooler as they will be under the eastern side of any ridging high so get cooler winds as a results. If western Russia and Scandinavia is hot then the UK are likely to be cooler as whilst Russia/Scandinavia is under high pressure, the UK tends to be under low pressure in such a set up.

All to early to say, but the lack of snow cover in Eastern Europe/Western Russia could potentially lead to a summer 2010 set up where record breaking temperatures were recorded. 

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Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl

Hopefully as bad as this winter has been for us coldies,it might keep the arctic cooler and for longer inti the melt season and hopefully conditions up there are kind through the melt season.

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Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex

Some small increases of sea ice cover:

cursnow_asiaeurope Snow & Ice Chart Thursday 20th February 2020.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
On 17/02/2020 at 00:01, Don said:

A northerly would most certainly be more beneficial to us at the moment with the cold air bottled up over the pole.  I would think this will be the mildest winter on record for parts of Europe at least.  Hopefully a one off but with climate change, it will likely become more common in future.  Europe certainly had some intense heat last summer, leading to the UK recording its highest temperature on record (38.7C) at Cambridge.  As to this coming summer, who knows?

I find that very worrying! I think it won't be long before Europe experiences what Australia went through this winter. There has been a semi permanent high pressure cell over Europe for much of this winter so very little rainfall fell apart from northern parts, so severe heat and a lengthy fire season is highly likely to happen. 

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Not wanting to step on MIA's toes, but just noted the following on JAXA.  Yesterday recorded an arctic sea ice increase of almost 115,000km2, which leaves 2020 the 10th lowest on record at 14,100,000km2.  Still a largely snowless Europe though!

image.thumb.png.74f89cb9196b7338b38a534114e03d7c.png

The question is how quickly the melt season establishes as we are getting close to the annual peak (usually around the last week of Feb/first week of March.

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
3 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Not wanting to step on MIA's toes, but just noted the following on JAXA.  Yesterday recorded an arctic sea ice increase of almost 115,000km2, which leaves 2020 the 10th lowest on record at 14,100,000km2.  Still a largely snowless Europe though!

image.thumb.png.74f89cb9196b7338b38a534114e03d7c.png

The question is how quickly the melt season establishes as we are getting close to the annual peak (usually around the last week of Feb/first week of March.

14,692,000 km2 according to NSIDC  

 

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
6 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

14,692,000 km2 according to NSIDC  

 

Not sure of the differences between how JAXA and NSIDC calculate their figures, but let's go with the higher number!!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl

Hi guys.. (no problems about the above)

 Was about to post the Masie data..

A big increase today of 79K Km2 up to 14,742K Km2, following gains of (2,0,10K Km2 ) over the last 4 days.

I suspect that amount is too large from the maps/charts above  and it will probably show a correction tomorrow!

Despite that Jaxa also recorded a gain of 115K km2 today, and had the extent at 10/11th in the last 15 years.  (see below)

This year has seen an increase of 8.5% of ice extent compared to the average over the last 10 years.

There is  still (probably) 2 weeks  remaining for the ice to top 15,000K Km2, but it is looking more unlikely now.

Barents is still holding back the increases with cyclones approaching the area from Greenland and bringing up some of the 'warmer' weather from Western Russia. These conditions are bringing unusually large amounts of snow to the Eastern Arctic, and this is currently severely impacting the Mosaic project whose staff  are not allowed 'out' during the 3 day long latest blizzard.  The ice breaker bringing more supplies and relief to the climate scientists on board are still over a week away and are only making slow progress towards  the Polarstorm.

Re - The discussion in the posts above about the differing Sea ice extent results given by the 3 main suppliers -

Basically it depends upon the satellite being used to pick up the data.

The older ones (used by the NSIDC) require a lot of cpu power to convert the data into ice extent. They are notably inaccurate around the coastlines and make extensive use of fixed 'grids' for the ice along the coasts which are changed roughly every 2 weeks. Melt pools are also poorly handled, and it also makes adjustments for things like salinity and Its effect on ice types and its computed/calculated effects upon ice depths.   

Masie is the most accurate as it uses not just the highest sensitive passive micro wave data, but also uses visual( photos) satellite to help to accurately assess the total ice state around the coastline. The FAQ below gives a lot more info - (and states that it is the most accurate for daily and weekly ice comparisons), but as it has been running for only 16years can not be used for longer term comparison.

 

https://nsidc.org/data/masie/masie_faq

 

Jaxa tends to be used by most sea ice experts, and generally lies somewhere between the two other products.  It is calculated from the European satellites (by the Japenese), whereas the others use those of the NSIDC in the US.

image.thumb.png.c228413cdde6ad4b42ae3bdcdf1bb914.png  and   image.thumb.png.f4a8097054aab6780c6171e90f0c8403.png

 

are typical of the graphs produced on the ASI Forum and display the current status of the Jaxa data.

MIA

  

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
12 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

 

A big increase today of 79K Km2 up to 14,742K Km2, following gains of (2,0,10K Km2 ) over the last 4 days.

I suspect that amount is too large from the maps/charts above  and it will probably show a correction tomorrow!

Despite that Jaxa also recorded a gain of 115K km2 today, and had the extent at 10/11th in the last 15 years.  (see below)

MIA

  

How wrong I was.  (?probably?)..

US NIC (below) shows major increases in the SOO, Bering and Barents. The latter seems to be because the cyclone has moved south-eastwards and allowed north north-westerly winds, pushing the main pack southwards again.  

Jaxa has recorded another near century increase for yesterday and has moved up to 14th lowest in the last 16 years.

Snow cover in Europe still looking pretty desperate..

image.thumb.png.10e82cd20ec2ec0160ab8d2b1e003844.png        image.thumb.png.ab9bcd2c39c56d0a480ce7e8bd3b599f.png

MIA

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl

Masie has just updated.... 

Confirmed how wrong one can be!!

An increase of no less than 134K Km2 today, now up to 14873K Km2.

Puts the prospect of a 15,000K Km2 year now well into focus. 

 

 

Historical years for achieving this 'barrier' -

2016  for 5 days starting at day 057 with a max of 15077K KM2.

2014 for 30 days at day 051 (today) with a max of 15407K KM2.

2013 for 45 days at day 046 with a max of 154667K Km2 

2012 for 25 days at day 048 with a max of 15676K Km2.

2011 for 4 days at day 058 with a max of 15110K Km2.

2010 for 41 days at day 051 with a max of 15345KKm2.

It is going to be seen how far up this table we can get this year(if at all), particularly as we started below the all time low at the beginning of October by about 250K Km2, and about 750K Km2 below the average for this decade.

Ice has formed at a rate of about 8.5% faster than the average for this decade. It compares with the rates achieved during the 1990's and early 2000's.  Again I muse,  what has caused this to happen?

More reports from the Mosaic project later. 

MIA

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Location: York
siconc_in_global-analysis-forecast-phy-0
WWW.SEVERE-WEATHER.EU

-spread the word- Just a few days after we talked about the Arctic ice extent reaching 10-year highest values, we are witnessing a warming event over the eastern Arctic...


is this really unusual or is it the rather sensationalist twitter page click baiting?

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
1 hour ago, York-snow said:
siconc_in_global-analysis-forecast-phy-0
WWW.SEVERE-WEATHER.EU

-spread the word- Just a few days after we talked about the Arctic ice extent reaching 10-year highest values, we are witnessing a warming event over the eastern Arctic...


is this really unusual or is it the rather sensationalist twitter page click baiting?

York...

The  attached (via a link) records going back to the 1960's have seen at least a couple of  warming events occurring during most years...To confirm please go back one year at a time (using the buttons) on this link.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

Whether this event in the Eastern Arctic is unusual, I am not certain, but it is caused by the same 'event' that we are currently experiencing in the Atlantic -

At this time of year with the entrenched cold still around in the Arctic, it seems to be the wind direction and strength which impacts ice extent rather than just temperature. If this were to happen in 2 months time (May)  then it would be very serious for the ice.

The Mosaic project has seen temperatures up to about -15C over the last few days (from -25 to -30C), but it still hasn't stopped the ice increasing in extent by one of the largest amounts in the last 10years.  (vis 200K Km2 in 2 days as I have described above).

image.thumb.png.9ce24048f52c20a2f0fbfe1bd8d754c8.png     and     image.png.8b10af83ffbdad988e0d3319f93a19de.png

This event is caused by a cyclone moving slowly up through Greenland into Barents and Kara which has brought the unusually warmer air in Western Russia  (imported from the UK), up into these areas. It caused the ice slow down a few days ago (see below) with generally southerly winds, but now it is dragging colder air back down from the higher Arctic on a generally northerly air stream, and the ice is expanding rapidly again. I guess it is a 'weather' event. 

image.thumb.png.7b2060b8208374001d1ff15750ccebb7.png

It needs an event lasting weeks rather than days to really affect the ice at this time of year. It is in spring/early summer that we can see a 'killer' event.

MIA

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex

Sea ice continues to increase:

cursnow_asiaeurope Snow & Ice Chart Saturday 22nd February 2020.gif

Edited by Katrine Basso
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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
14 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

York...

The  attached (via a link) records going back to the 1960's have seen at least a couple of  warming events occurring during most years...To confirm please go back one year at a time (using the buttons) on this link.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

Whether this event in the Eastern Arctic is unusual, I am not certain, but it is caused by the same 'event' that we are currently experiencing in the Atlantic -

At this time of year with the entrenched cold still around in the Arctic, it seems to be the wind direction and strength which impacts ice extent rather than just temperature. If this were to happen in 2 months time (May)  then it would be very serious for the ice.

The Mosaic project has seen temperatures up to about -15C over the last few days (from -25 to -30C), but it still hasn't stopped the ice increasing in extent by one of the largest amounts in the last 10years.  (vis 200K Km2 in 2 days as I have described above).

image.thumb.png.9ce24048f52c20a2f0fbfe1bd8d754c8.png     and     image.png.8b10af83ffbdad988e0d3319f93a19de.png

This event is caused by a cyclone moving slowly up through Greenland into Barents and Kara which has brought the unusually warmer air in Western Russia  (imported from the UK), up into these areas. It caused the ice slow down a few days ago (see below) with generally southerly winds, but now it is dragging colder air back down from the higher Arctic on a generally northerly air stream, and the ice is expanding rapidly again. I guess it is a 'weather' event. 

image.thumb.png.7b2060b8208374001d1ff15750ccebb7.png

It needs an event lasting weeks rather than days to really affect the ice at this time of year. It is in spring/early summer that we can see a 'killer' event.

MIA

Southerlies via a strong high over the Russian landmass and low pressure towards Svalbard is not unusual but it has been unusual this winter until just over a week ago. There are signs these southerlies might break down and colder conditions may return to the Kara sea but we need more runs on that one. 

Can't believe the hype around it to be honest, any air mass from the lower latitudes towards the higher latitudes will cause a massive temperature anomoly and it is just the same vice versa. One warm spell in the Kara sea is not going to make or break whether we will head into an early melt season as other regions like Baffin and the Bering sea to a lesser extent are below average. 

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
10 hours ago, Geordiesnow said:

Southerlies via a strong high over the Russian landmass and low pressure towards Svalbard is not unusual but it has been unusual this winter until just over a week ago. There are signs these southerlies might break down and colder conditions may return to the Kara sea but we need more runs on that one. 

Can't believe the hype around it to be honest, any air mass from the lower latitudes towards the higher latitudes will cause a massive temperature anomoly and it is just the same vice versa. One warm spell in the Kara sea is not going to make or break whether we will head into an early melt season as other regions like Baffin and the Bering sea to a lesser extent are below average. 

Thanks Geordiesnow for this response..

I do read your posts on the other Arctic thread, and I guess that this discussion fits half way?

I agree with the points you have made, and it led me to think about the mechanics of why we have had the much faster refreeze this year.

It (as I believe) comes down to the fact that from the end of October to the middle of December we had an 'unusual' atmospheric situation with very flat low pressure areas  lined up along the Russian Arctic coastline right up to the eastern side  of Siberia. This enabled Siberia to cool down quickly (reports of -50C in early December), and this colder air was dragged up northwards into the Arctic and then swept westwards along the Russian coastline enabling rapid freeze in Laptev, Kara and finally Barents.  

Since then the Polar vortex has ruled, and we have returned to normal (for the last few decades) with a late  freeze up extending into Chukchi and the Bering Ocean. We have now come full circle with above average temperatures in Kara and very cold air over Beaufort and Bering. The latter also has not occurred frequently over the last decade. 

It seems (to me)  that the real anomaly was what happened in the November and December period. Conditions were very good for ice formation in a wider sense in the Arctic.

It is this period that enabled the ice to gain so much. It could be asked if these conditions where more common in the 1960/70's period? But that is probably for the other thread?

MIA

PS added  on -

I wonder if the Ozone this year is also in someway complicit in the events that have unfolded.

It is still in an unusual 'unbalanced' situation with hardly any over the pole, but  a massive circulation going on below that.

image.thumb.png.4cfe6e432b27a92a60182dd134207ef3.png 

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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