Snow & Ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019/20

[DavidS]

2 hours ago, Aleman said:

Northern Hemisphere snow mass reaches its average peak six weeks early

 

Given the lack of snow in Europe this winter, that is a very interesting chart.

[Matty88]

Hi All, forgive me as I am very much a novice but follow with interest the sea ice extents, and I have a question: Why has the 1981 - 2010 median ice line appear to have suddenly changed east of Greenland on the NSIDC daily ice images within recent days? Does it adapt according to the time of year? It appears to have increases in size/shape around this edge. Has the ice extent also recently shrunk east of Greenland? Example:

From Dec 2019:                                                     

 

From 30/01/2020:

[Relativistic]

22 minutes ago, Matty88 said:

Hi All, forgive me as I am very much a novice but follow with interest the sea ice extents, and I have a question: Why has the 1981 - 2010 median ice line appear to have suddenly changed east of Greenland on the NSIDC daily ice images within recent days? Does it adapt according to the time of year? It appears to have increases in size/shape around this edge. Has the ice extent also recently shrunk east of Greenland? Example:

From Dec 2019:                                                     

 

From 30/01/2020:

It adapts; the medians are specific to those dates.

Edited January 30, 2020 by Relativistic

[mb018538]

1 hour ago, Matty88 said:

Hi All, forgive me as I am very much a novice but follow with interest the sea ice extents, and I have a question: Why has the 1981 - 2010 median ice line appear to have suddenly changed east of Greenland on the NSIDC daily ice images within recent days? Does it adapt according to the time of year? It appears to have increases in size/shape around this edge. Has the ice extent also recently shrunk east of Greenland? Example:

From Dec 2019:                                                     

 

From 30/01/2020:

One is for December mean, the other is for January mean - hence the differing outlines.

[Geordiesnow]

11 hours ago, DavidS said:

Given the lack of snow in Europe this winter, that is a very interesting chart.

But what does it mean though? I'm guessing it means even though snow cover may not be as extensive(especially across Europe) it is thicker than average? Which may make sence giving the continents have largely been above average therefore hold more PPN and of course its still cold so it falls as snow? 

I have read before even if you have thicker snow cover, there is not that much of a lag affect so still expect a rapid retreat come Spring? 

[Midlands Ice Age]

Hi Guys…. Back after an enforced absence. 

An update on UK NIC this morning, and I will be back with the Masie (and Jaxa) extents later on today.

Snow cover is finally moving into Eastern Europe.

Thanks to all above for the comments on the NH Snow coverage.

I an quite shocked (surprised) that we are at such a high level.. 

Sea ice is increasing in the Pacific basin (SOO and Bering), and is also expanding rapidly in the Gulf of ST Lawrence.

The Atlantic front  has decreased (compacted?) under the influence of a cyclone over Barents.

More interest later on this from the Masie project.

      and      

 

MIA

Edited February 1, 2020 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

Masie not updated yet for yesterday (end of month problem)?

But a brief review c/o ASIF for the end of January.

JAXA has updated and shows yet another large an increase  (100 K Km2 in the last 2 days of January). 

Thanks to the ASIF, here are figures for January increase of ice level compared to the previous years over the last 40years -

It  shows the largest increase in this measure since the record began.

Whilst the Barents still continues on its merry way..

 

It now boosts(?) the ice extent up to 13th position again in the last 17 years. It is only a small amount away from 14th/15th position.

    Only 2008 and 2009 can stop us going back to 2003 for the previous highest.

 

What is the 'outlook'? 

Well GFS  foresees lower temperatures for the next 5 days yet again. Down to -2.0C  below normal, so the temperatures at least show no reason for the increases to stop. The outer areas are all expected to increase, the only slight drag on the increase may well be Barents, where a real battle between milder   Atlantic air and very cold Siberian air is taking place. The cyclones being formed may well tend to ice compaction and folding rather than increasing.

In the same area, the MS Polar stern ice breaker has been having a tough last few days which depicts the above shown Barents conditions.

The Mosaic project has now reducted their claims about Polar Bears. Apparently they are around in the absolute darkness, as their footprints are frequently observed around the ship, but they are not seen..

The weather has been pretty foul the last 2 days as shown by the following table of wind speeds and temperatures -

    A drop of about -23C in 13 hours with windspeeds of about 40 Kph, is  pretty tough

 

This morning a further small cyclone passed the project and an even bigger drop in temperatures  from -11C to -38C in 13 hours, combined with even higher wind speeds.

The ice is getting pushed against the ship now and minor ridges and leads are opening and disappearing hourly, but the ice is thicker now so it is not quite as extreme.

They have chosen a good year to observe and study the  ice motions.....

Meanwhile the rescue/refuelling ice breaker Kapitan Dranitsyn  is leaving Tromso with their  next supplies update.  It will be interesting to see how it traverses in these conditions.

Hopefully a Masie update tomorrow.

MIA

Edited February 1, 2020 by Midlands Ice Age

[Aleman]

Whilst snow mass is well up, extent has turned down. It's been above average for a year or two but the recent melt in the US and E. Europe seems to have knocked it back finally.

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

Masie updated yesterday (Volunteer Monday for me)….

An overall increase of (+147K) in 7 days since my last update hides a rollercoaster few days.

The total today (14,399K) includes  7 days of +20K, +39K, +20K, +125K, -71K, -46K and today +66K, to give a +21K average per day change.

The middle period is probably of more interest with a huge leap up to 14,453K total, from gains in Bering, SOO and Baffin, but losses in Barents. The next day saw losses  in Bering and particularly the SOO, but small increases in Barents.!

Compaction in Barents under pressure from the cyclones has removed (-86K) from its total, but gains in Greenland(+56K), Baffin(+25K), Bering(+122K) and SOO(+28K) kept the upward momentum.

Currently the Arctic is experiencing below average temperatures (GFS), with the central feature being a cyclone over Svalbard pushing warmer (less cold) air up into Barents and the Kara areas, but cold air sits over the remainder of Central Basin. 

            and                   

 

The outlook is for similar conditions,  so the slower momentum in Barents could well continue, but the ice has manged to claw its way along the Russian coast from NZ to Murmansk , whilst the Atlantic front has reduced.

Ice is now pushing out into the Bering Ocean towards the chain of islands separating it from the Pacific. 

The NH snow and ice map shows how unfortunate Europe is being at present with feet of snow being seen in the rest of the NH at similar latitudes.

Even Alaska is now being enveloped in a snow drift!.

Interesting couple of weeks now coming up as the daily extent drops to about 25K per day.

To reach 15,000K Km2 we need to achieve an average gain of 30K Km2 per day, so we will see.

The other interest for ice fans is the worldwide extent data (incl. Antarctica) which is currently in 9th lowest position and is within 2 weeks of the annual lowest figure.

MIA  

 

Edited February 4, 2020 by Midlands Ice Age

[Stravaiger]

Latest blog from the guys at the NSIDC: 

Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis | Sea ice data updated daily with one-day lag

NSIDC.ORG

Even they are talking about ozone in relation to Arctic warming this month!

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

On 04/02/2020 at 20:05, Stravaiger said:

Latest blog from the guys at the NSIDC: 

Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis | Sea ice data updated daily with one-day lag

NSIDC.ORG

Even they are talking about ozone in relation to Arctic warming this month!

 

Thanks Stavaiger

Below are my 2 postings from that date on the paper being discussed.

I posted extensively on Jan 21st and 22nd on the subject -

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thanks...

Outside the paper Professor Polano  has been giving interviews, and some more details.

He concludes thus -

'It is a good news story'.

My comments -

Lets just be happy that we have a probable method of a fairly relevant reduction in global warming, that can be monitored and implemented without spending trillions of pounds. 

Yes further research must be done quickly to identify the effects of all the GHG's involved. Many of which have been to produced to develop  'safer' halon gasses for refrigeration, not understanding that products which were produced as by products were equally as bad.

I showed a full list of all the gases thought to be involved and I will link it here.

https://agage.mit.edu/data/agage-data

Surely, within a couple of years (If we steam ahead) we have the means of at least bringing a certain control to the more serious aspects of CAGW?.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

and also form the same date is my original post Jan 21 /22nd   -

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

To add a little more detail to the 'Ozone' story, I posted this on the climate change thread, which should give us all pause for thought. It comes from the lead professor of the project -

 

 

Interesting comments by Lorenzo Polvano the lead professor at Colombia University.... 

"The results highlight the importance of the Montreal Protocol, which has been signed by nearly 200 countries, say the authors. “Climate mitigation is in action as we speak because these substances are decreasing in the atmosphere, thanks to the Montreal Protocol,” said Lorenzo Polvani, lead author of the study and a professor in Columbia’s Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics. “In the coming decades, they will contribute less and less to global warming. It’s a good-news story.”

My comments -

He seems to be expecting (anticipating/predicting) a period of very reduced warming, if not a cooling  ahead, particularly at the poles, provided that these HFC's are brought under control.

It seems as though these compounds are easily detected with satellite monitoring,  and unlike CO2, they can easily be pinpointed giving us an easy and quick method of stopping their production.

About half a dozen companies across the world apparently are involved and at least one has already been stopped(the largest producer - in China!!).. 

With a 50% factor quoted for sea ice and a one third factor for temperatures, this paper should not be dismissed lightly.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

My comments today are these -

 

It seems as though the climate ASIF people have also taken this on board with their recent Jan ASIF Monthly Report posted by yourself above >>>.

 'A new study from Columbia University presents evidence that half of the Arctic sea ice loss and surface warming over the 1955 to 2005 period can be attributed to the greenhouse effect of ozone-depleting substances (ODS).'

Interesting times indeed.

MIA

 

Edited February 6, 2020 by Paul

[Midlands Ice Age]

Morning all ...

Thought it worthwhile posting this mornings US NIC 

It shows a very large increase in sea ice in the Pacific rim and also in Barents.

Already Jaxa have reported a +80K Km2 gain and I suspect that Masie will be similar.

It has 'pushed' the extent to the 14th lowest in the series, and this could increase further as the cold air is extensive at the moment.  

 

          and yesterdays  

 

MIA           

Edited February 6, 2020 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

US NIC...

Similar to yesterday...

Snow now back into Eastern Europe.

Large gains in sea ice in Barents and Greenland. Bering also still increasing, but SOO seems to be static.

A near century gain on Masie later? Yesterday managed 60K Km2, pushing the rounded figure up to14,500K Km2. Average for this time of year is about 15K Km2.

Back later today with a detailed chat on Masie and the snow cover this year.

MIA

 

[Aleman]

N.Hemisphere snow extent might yet reach an average peak. I wonder what the record for mass is. It's certainly looking a strong year.

Edited February 7, 2020 by Aleman

[Midlands Ice Age]

Masie report...

Did not manage a century but registered 87K KM2 today after(+57K and +5K) in the previous 2 days, giving an average of 48K Km2 where as the last 20year average is just 15K Km2.

Masie now  at 14,537K KM2 so now on track for 15,000K before the end of February.

A further 30days yet before we look for reductions. 

More information from the ASIF (with thanks) on the current Jaxa data -

       showing the total Jaxa statistics.

 

Current status -

     and     

A long way to go yet to challenge the 1990's, but the records for the 2000's are now being seriously challenged/beaten.

… and all this from the record lows of early October means we are observing one of the fastest ice growing phases on official record.

One must query why this has happened at a time when the temperatures over the Arctic are still an average of 1- 2C above normal. Plainly there is more to ice extent than the actual temperature.

The Polar Vortex has been strong this year, and there has been persistent lower temperatures in Siberia and Greenland this freeze season and for the last month North West Canada (particularly Alaska) has been exceptionally cold.

At the moment it is an average of 5 - 15C below normal, with the winds being pulled across the pole towards them from Siberia. In places this extends to -25C below normal currently..    

 

 

Snow cover is interesting... it being now below average for extent (Mainly due to the mild Europe) , but with above average  mass (volume) being recorded by Rutgers. Looking at the snow coverage on CR one can see why with depths of snow of 50cms being  recorded very widely across the Northern Hemisphere -  

 

        and        

All in all  a very interesting freeze season in the Arctic.  

Worldwide sea ice is now approaching its minimum as the Antarctic is just starting its refreeze.

 Latest figures are showing the minimum appearing to be earlier this year and that the w/w sea  ice is now in 10th position 

               

 Volume has been the laggard in all this optimism. However It is now also beginning to  'turn upwards'. We will see whether or not this becomes relevant as we go through into the melt season.

MIA

Edited February 7, 2020 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

38 minutes ago, Aleman said:

N.Hemisphere snow extent might yet reach an average peak. I wonder what the record for mass is. It's certainly looking a strong year.

Aleman (sorry for the dup..)

[claret047]

38 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Masie report...

Did not manage a century but registered 87K KM2 today after(+57K and +5K) in the previous 2 days, giving an average of

48K Km2 where as the last 20year average is just 15K Km2.

Masie now  at 14,537K KM2 so now on track for 15,000K before the end of February.

A further 30days yet before we look for reductions. 

More information from the ASIF (with thanks) on the current Jaxa data -

       showing the total Jaxa statistics.

 

Current status -

     and     

A long way to go yet to challenge the 1990's, but the records for the 2000's are now being seriously challenged/beaten.

… and all this from the record lows of early October means we are observing one of the fastest ice growing phases on official record.

One must query why this has happened at a time when the temperatures over the Arctic are still an average of 1- 2C above normal. Plainly there is more to ice extent than the actual temperature.

The Polar Vortex has been strong this year, and there has been persistent lower temperatures in Siberia and Greenland this freeze season and for the last month North West Canada (particularly Alaska) has been exceptionally cold.

At the moment it is an average of 5 - 15C below normal, with the winds being pulled across the pole towards them from Siberia.

In places this extends to -25C below normal currently..    

 

 

Snow cover is interesting... it being now below average for extent (Mainly due to the mild Europe) , but with above average  mass (volume) being recorded by Rutgers. Looking at the snow coverage on CR one can see why with depths of snow of 50cms being  recorded very widely across the Northern Hemisphere -  

 

                              and        

All in all  a very interesting freeze season in the Arctic.  

Worldwide sea ice is now approaching its minimum as the Antarctic is just starting its refreeze.

 Latest figures are showing the minimum appearing to be earlier this year and that the w/w sea  ice is now in 10the position 

               

 Volume has been the laggard in all this optimism. However It is now also beginning to  'turn upwards'. We will see whether or not this becomes relevant as we go through into the melt season.

MIA

Good Evening MIA,

I trust you and the family are well.

As you know I am no expert, but wonder if the following has had an effect on increased ice buildup inspite of an above average temperature for the region.

In October we started from a very low base, which means a lot of snow and ice had melted. The snow in particular would not have contained salt and I am not sure if ice will be as saline as sea water. If the salt is reduced substantially in the water will this dilution make it easier for the sea to refreeze.

Apologies if I have made a complete idiot of myself with this suggestion.

Kind Regards

Dave

[Midlands Ice Age]

3 minutes ago, claret047 said:

Good Evening MIA,

I trust you and the family are well.

As you know I am no expert, but wonder if the following has had an effect on increased ice buildup inspite of an above average temperature for the region.

In October we started from a very low base, which means a lot of snow and ice had melted. The snow in particular would not have contained salt and I am not sure if ice will be as saline as sea water. If the salt is reduced substantially in the water will this dilution make it easier for the sea to refreeze.

Apologies if I have made a complete idiot of myself with this suggestion.

Kind Regards

Dave

Valid point Dave...

Yep, we are well, though I have to have a piece of my lobe removed on Tuesday, and my wife has a pre-op monday!!!

The reason why this correct theory does not hold too much water(?), is that of 'mixing'.

This occurs in 2 ways.

1) From (particularly)  the Atlantic, but also the Pacific Gateway through Bering. Many people are monitoring the 'saltiness' of the surface water, and it is recorded by many satellites. It clearly shows the streaks of salty water being pushed into the Arctic on a hourly basis. This neutralises the  clean surface ice melt water.

2) Upwelling from below during storms. There have not been quite so many yet this winter season, but normally there are 20-30 every year.

This process is thought to be only a minor factor for the ice refreeze.

Could say much more, but am expecting friends in 10mins so I must get ready!!!  

Let me know if you would like to get interested and I will give you some refs.

MIA

[claret047]

1 hour ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Valid point Dave...

Yep, we are well, though I have to have a piece of my lobe removed on Tuesday, and my wife has a pre-op monday!!!

The reason why this correct theory does not hold too much water(?), is that of 'mixing'.

This occurs in 2 ways.

1) From (particularly)  the Atlantic, but also the Pacific Gateway through Bering. Many people are monitoring the 'saltiness' of the surface water, and it is recorded by many satellites. It clearly shows the streaks of salty water being pushed into the Arctic on a hourly basis. This neutralises the  clean surface ice melt water.

2) Upwelling from below during storms. There have not been quite so many yet this winter season, but normally there are 20-30 every year.

This process is thought to be only a minor factor for the ice refreeze.

Could say much more, but am expecting friends in 10mins so I must get ready!!!  

Let me know if you would like to get interested and I will give you some refs.

MIA

Hello again.

Many thanks for your reply.

I had not thought about flow of waters into the arctic would be salty thus replenishing any deficit to a large extent. I also had not considered the upwelling aspect either. I realise now that my suggestion was far too simplistic and something else much more complex must be at play to result in the current situation.

When you do get a chance I would be grateful if you could forward the reference to which you refer. You are probably like me insofar as since retirement I never seem to get a lot of time, with family commitments etc.

Have a good weekend

Kind Regards

Dave

[Midlands Ice Age]

14 hours ago, claret047 said:

Hello again.

Many thanks for your reply.

I had not thought about flow of waters into the arctic would be salty thus replenishing any deficit to a large extent. I also had not considered the upwelling aspect either. I realise now that my suggestion was far too simplistic and something else much more complex must be at play to result in the current situation.

When you do get a chance I would be grateful if you could forward the reference to which you refer. You are probably like me insofar as since retirement I never seem to get a lot of time, with family commitments etc.

Have a good weekend

Kind Regards

Dave

USNIC still showing gains in most of the ice field, but snow remains static.

However, as regards the salinity.

The Arctic Sea Ice Forum has a blog item on the subject which has been running since 2018.

It contains satellite images most weeks, and they also monitor the results from the various buoys which have been released into the polar regions. 

If you want to spend an afternoon reading through the whole blog (11 pages),it is probably the easiest way of getting a pretty good overview , since they also link to most recent papers on the subject. 

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2417.0.html

This is a typical chart from a recent post on there.

  Not sure if it has picked up the gif properly you may need to click on it. 

Nope it hasn't worked, but It displays the actual salinity from last autumn  through to the current time.

One other point of interest is that the estuaries in Northern Russia (when they melt) inject large amounts of salt free water into Chukchi, Kara and Barents.  Despite this the ice has tended to have spread into the areas from the North. It is yet another puzzle, which seems to deny scientific expectation. There are many unexplained events that have occurred recently.

A further method of tracing the freeze and temperatures of the ice is by use of the Google earth program.

It gives actual temperatures of the sea level temperatures and by clicking on it along the ice front, you can see where ice is likely to form.

i

earth :: a global map of wind, weather, and ocean conditions

EARTH.NULLSCHOOL.NET

---

See current wind, weather, ocean, and pollution conditions, as forecast by supercomputers, on an interactive animated map. Updated every three hours.

Hope to see you posting on here in the future! 

MIA

Edited February 8, 2020 by Midlands Ice Age

[claret047]

On 08/02/2020 at 10:33, Midlands Ice Age said:

USNIC still showing gains in most of the ice field, but snow remains static.

However, as regards the salinity.

The Arctic Sea Ice Forum has a blog item on the subject which has been running since 2018.

It contains satellite images most weeks, and they also monitor the results from the various buoys which have been released into the polar regions. 

If you want to spend an afternoon reading through the whole blog (11 pages),it is probably the easiest way of getting a pretty good overview , since they also link to most recent papers on the subject. 

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2417.0.html

This is a typical chart from a recent post on there.

  Not sure if it has picked up the gif properly you may need to click on it. 

Nope it hasn't worked, but It displays the actual salinity from last autumn  through to the current time.

One other point of interest is that the estuaries in Northern Russia (when they melt) inject large amounts of salt free water into Chukchi, Kara and Barents.  Despite this the ice has tended to have spread into the areas from the North. It is yet another puzzle, which seems to deny scientific expectation. There are many unexplained events that have occurred recently.

A further method of tracing the freeze and temperatures of the ice is by use of the Google earth program.

It gives actual temperatures of the sea level temperatures and by clicking on it along the ice front, you can see where ice is likely to form.

i

earth :: a global map of wind, weather, and ocean conditions

EARTH.NULLSCHOOL.NET

---

See current wind, weather, ocean, and pollution conditions, as forecast by supercomputers, on an interactive animated map. Updated every three hours.

Hope to see you posting on here in the future! 

MIA

Good Afternoon MIA,

Thanks for the information. I will read it when I get the chance. I have to go out shortly to check on my 90 year old uncle who lives alone the other side of Chelmsford.

Kind Regards

Dave

[Aleman]

[Norrance]

Nice to see pixels in Scotland and Northern England though most of Europe still a snow desert.

Edited February 12, 2020 by Norrance

[Northwest NI]

Just keeping thread ticking over.

As Norrance said a little snow cover showing up in Scotland...

[Midlands Ice Age]

Guys...

 Back again after 2 days off due to a minor op.

These last 4 days have seen a drop in the sea ice, but snow has finally started to move into Europe.

Ice contraction apparently due to the winds (rather than melting) seems to be the reason for the Ice reduction.

Last nights report (below) - show ice gains again in all  regions except Barents.

So I will attempt to give some details of the last few days after Masie this pm later today.

 

 

MIA