Snow & Ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019/20

[Midlands Ice Age]

19 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I posted a few years back an Admiralty chart from  1941 and it showed maximum Winter sea extent stretching from Eastern Iceland to Northern Norway. A mere 70 years later and it's all water. 

The pdf  below published in a book and copied into the thread by  Gael-Force  does not show the ice  to have been excessive that year, though it does show it reached Iceland.

https://www.vedur.is/media/hafis/frodleikur/is_koch_hlynur_1877-1968.pdf

MIA

 

[mountain shadow]

4 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

The pdf  below published in a book and copied into the thread by  Gael-Force  does not show the ice  to have been excessive that year, though it does show it reached Iceland.

https://www.vedur.is/media/hafis/frodleikur/is_koch_hlynur_1877-1968.pdf

MIA

 

The chart was "maximum possible" extent as opposed to what actually occurred. 

It was a guide to look out for ice at that latitude.

[Katrine Basso]

There have been some decrease of snow for Russia and slight increases in sea ice cover:

[Midlands Ice Age]

Looking at the above from Katrine, I was struck as to how little ice is showing in the Greenland Sea in comparison to the charts shown in the pdf I showed above produced by Gail Force.

This has a couple of interesting points associated with it  -

1) The fact that this area is representative of the Fram current (the greatest ice destroyer in the world?), and as such must mean that less ice is being destroyed currently.

I have attached the current ice situation of the Greenland Sea from Masie - 

As can be seen since Jan 1st the ice in the Greenland Sea has reduced by about 100K Km2.  That has occurred as the winds north of Svalbard  (the driver of the ice into Fram), have switched to a more NE and hence is driving the ice southwards into the Barents Sea (rather than towards the Fram), and also when the winds north of Greenland are driving the ice more westerly towards Beaufort. (Information from the Mosaic project confirms).

Now I am not aware that the temperatures off Greenland have been 'warm' during this period.  So does that rate of reduction represent the constant drain of ice along the Fram  by  'natural' causes (ie the Fram ocean will always destroy the ice at this rate), whilst this actual flow rate continues ?

2) Referring back to the Greenland/ Iceland bridge article, it is clear that 100 years ago, there was, on occasions, much more ice in the Fram.

This means that (in addition to much colder northerlies in the UK!!?) -

a)  there originally was more ice in the Arctic, and hence  that

b)  more ice was also being destroyed. 

A similar balancing  mechanism will also exist in the Bering Strait, when ice does not move into the Bering Ocean until later in the ice year, (and hence less ice will be 'melted out'), and will it become a factor in the newly opened (though I understand that it has closed up again now) Nares Strait in future years.?

Could  this Arctic atmospheric/ocean mechanism  be a factor in the positive control of Arctic sea ice at the current phase of Arctic climate change?  

We (I?) will have to wait to find out...

MIA 

[Aleman]

There's always ice flowing into the Greenland sea from the north and out through the Fram straight  - but the rates are both variable.You've talked about inlet.  I'll concentrate on outlet. Sometimes ice lets out to the southern tip of Greenland more slowly and ice backs up into the southern Greenland Sea and spreads. Other times it exits the Fram Straight quickly and ice build-up in southern Greenland Sea areas evacuate .Play with the timestepping in this model. When winds slow or block ice flows through the Fram Straight, Greenland Sea ice backs up a bit and forms a slightly thicker "plug" in the southern Greenland Sea that can lift overall ice extent (and sometimes bridge the Fram Straight). When currents further south revert to the more usual mode, Fram Straight blockage quickly passes and Greenland Sea ice extent in the southern section drops back again. 

You might want to look at winters of 2005 and 2006 as exit flows blocks, it thickens up a bit and bridges from Greenland to Iceland as the "plugs" pass through. I suppose ideal conditions are a high S/SE of Iceland so S/SW winds block ice filing down the coast and ice higher up will spread and thicken under the influence of very cold westerlies flowing off Greenland. When the high moves on, it would all start to empty again. A high S/SE of Iceland causes "constipation" that leaves a "mound" in your Greenland Sea ice extent chart. 

DMI Modelled ice thickness

OCEAN.DMI.DK

 

 

Edited January 18, 2020 by Aleman

[Northwest NI]

26 minutes ago, Aleman said:

There's always ice flowing into the Greenland sea from the north and out through the Fram straight  - but the rates are both variable.You've talked about inlet.  I'll concentrate on outlet. Sometimes ice lets out to the southern tip of Greenland more slowly and ice backs up into the southern Greenland Sea and spreads. Other times it exits the Fram Straight quickly and ice build-up in southern Greenland Sea areas evacuate .Play with the timestepping in this model. When winds slow or block ice flows through the Fram Straight, Greenland Sea ice backs up a bit and forms a slightly thicker "plug" in the southern Greenland Sea that can lift overall ice extent (and sometimes bridge the Fram Straight). When currents further south revert to the more usual mode, Fram Straight blockage quickly passes and Greenland Sea ice extent in the southern section drops back again. 

You might want to look at winters of 2005 and 2006 as exit flows blocks, it thickens up a bit and bridges from Greenland to Iceland as the "plugs" pass through. I suppose ideal conditions are a high S/SE of Iceland so S/SW winds block ice filing down the coast and ice higher up will spread and thicken under the influence of very cold westerlies flowing off Greenland. When the high moves on, it would all start to empty again. A high S/SE of Iceland causes "constipation" that leaves a "mound" in your Greenland Sea ice extent chart. 

DMI Modelled ice thickness

OCEAN.DMI.DK

 

 

Thanks for this.

Very informative.

[Midlands Ice Age]

Thanks Aleman

I was thinking in terms of the normal ongoing flow thru the Fram… but yes, occasionally there are 'backups'. However the principle is that the more ice there is in Greenland Sea, the quicker will the ice melt.

 

Its 3 days now since my last Masie update …. so here goes

An ice gain over 197K Km2 in the last 3 days (Up to 13,700K Km2 in total today).This is up to 8th lowest extent in the record and is 100K Km2 above the average for the 2010's, and making progress towards average for the 2000's.

The latest increase was  made up from daily changes in Barents(+35K), Greenland(+23K), Baffin(+47K), Central(+7K) and SOO(+55K), and each day added (+49K, +108K and +40K) whereas the average for his time of year is about 35K km2 …....

A continued reduction in Bering (-20K) was ended today with a (+7K) increase. This reduction has taken place over the last 12 days and has resulted in a total reduction of 120K.

Also that Baffin is being increased /improved by the colder air (reported on the sister photo thread to this), that is affecting the Labrador area. The ice has finally moved into the Labrador Sea, and is extending around the coast into Baffin itself.  

Temperatures are expected to fall over the next few days in the Arctic Basin, but Ice extent  formation is now dependent on the wind directions in the outer sea areas for the remaining future ice gains. The colder air in the basin is needed to thicken up the ice there.

For information Global Sea Ice  is now rapidly also moving up through the tables to 6th lowest after (rather like the Arctic), as it too appeared likely to be in the lowest categories. The Antarctic is also now gaining against previous years as it nears its summer minimum. 

MIA

Edited January 18, 2020 by Midlands Ice Age

[ALL ABOARD]

22 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Thanks Aleman

I was thinking in terms of the normal ongoing flow thru the Fram… but yes, occasionally there are 'backups'. However the principle is that the more ice there is in Greenland Sea, the quicker will the ice melt.

 

Its 3 days now since my last Masie update …. so here goes

An ice gain over 197K Km2 in the last 3 days (Up to 13,700K Km2 in total today).This is up to 8th lowest extent in the record and is 100K Km2 above the average for the 2010's, and making progress towards average for the 2000's.

The latest increase was  made up from daily changes in Barents(+35K), Greenland(+23K), Baffin(+47K), Central(+7K) and SOO(+55K), and each day added (+49K, +108K and +40K) whereas the average for his time of year is about 35K km2 …....

A continued reduction in Bering (-20K) was ended today with a (+7K) increase. This reduction has taken place over the last 12 days and has resulted in a total reduction of 120K.

Also that Baffin is being increased /improved by the colder air (reported on the sister photo thread to this), that is affecting the Labrador area. The ice has finally moved into the Labrador Sea, and is extending around the coast into Baffin itself.  

Temperatures are expected to fall over the next few days in the Arctic Basin, but Ice extent  formation is now dependent on the wind directions in the outer sea areas for the remaining future ice gains. The colder air in the basin is needed to thicken up the ice there.

For information Global Sea Ice  is now rapidly also moving up through the tables to 6th lowest after (rather like the Arctic), as it too appeared likely to be in the lowest categories. The Antarctic is also now gaining against previous years as it nears its summer minimum. 

MIA

Great Post MIA 

Can we have the data in a table graph so I can nose at please. 

Kind regards 

[Midlands Ice Age]

1 hour ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Great Post MIA 

Can we have the data in a table graph so I can nose at please. 

Kind regards 

Thanks All Aboard.

Courtesy of the guys at the ASIF (and thanks) -

(It shows the Jaxa data, but the relevant data is very similar between it  and Masie).

 

For the Arctic -

      

 

and for the world ice situation -

         and             and

 

OK?

MIA

 

 

Edited January 18, 2020 by Midlands Ice Age

[Daniel*]

As I was saying  

 

[Katrine Basso]

Small changes in sea ice cover:

[Midlands Ice Age]

Yet more changes in sea ice cover...

just about all positive. 

Snow - no changes yet.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

@Midlands Ice Age have seen you discuss CO2 before, not sure if this is of any interest 

Also some snowfall records 

Jackson Hole Reports Record Snowfall To Start New Decade | InTheSnow

WWW.INTHESNOW.COM

---

With more than 3.3 metres (over 11 feet) of snow blanketing the Tetons since January 1, 2020 conditions at Jackson Hole Mountain Resort in...

 

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

KW - I will take in the above report  tomorrow....

 

Todays NIC just out...

After yesterdays well over 100K Km2 gain in sea ice, todays sees large increases again in Baffin (Labrador) and the SOO, but smallish decreases increases on the Atlantic front. 

Snow level relatively unchanged.

Will be back with the Masie data tomorrow, which looks like really great news!

          and     

 

MIA

 

 

[username home]

12 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

KW - I will take in the above report  tomorrow....

 

Todays NIC just out...

After yesterdays well over 100K Km2 gain in sea ice, todays sees large increases again in Baffin (Labrador) and the SOO, but smallish decreases increases on the Atlantic front. 

Snow level relatively unchanged.

Will be back with the Masie data tomorrow, which looks like really great news!

          and     

 

MIA

 

 

Quite incredible how green Europe is. 

Growing up I used to love the weather pages in the broadsheet newspapers and would check the temps out in all the world's major cities. From memory Helsinki was always well below zero during the day during the winter. Just quickly checked this winters stats on https://www.accuweather.com/en/fi/helsinki/133328/december-weather/133328?year=2019 and it looks like they have had only 1 day below freezing this winter (28th December) which is incredible. Crazy times.... 

Edited January 21, 2020 by username home

[Sleighbelle]

Currently in Czech Republic 600m asl with 6” snow yesterday but temps rising and snow diminishing. Positively balmy for here! -3.4 this morning but 1c now. 

[Midlands Ice Age]

Masie today.  ..

Announced it reached a headline of 14.000K Km2 today.

Last 3 days recorded a well above average increase total of 222K Km2 (+53K, +131K and +38K). This is the 7th earliest in the last 16 years it has reached the 14K barrier.  

2019,2018,2017,2012,2007.2006 all failed to reach by this date. 

More interestingly it is now within 150K Km2 of  6 other years, with only 2011 and 2009 out of reach.

JAXA extent is now already showing in  11th  place!!.

The regions are progressing as expected in the last 3 days, with Barents(-20K) and Greenland(-19K) being the only real losers and Baffin(+73K)  and SOO(+85K) increasing very rapidly. Bering has now turned the corner and is increasing again with (+55K).

As mentioned recently and suggested by others on here the Arctic Ocean is expected to cool down from about +2.0C to -1.0C over the next 3 days, with the outer sea areas of Barents, Baffin and Bering turning very cold. 

A very positive outlook for sea ice appears more than possible.

For information  the next 'target' is 15.000K Km2 which was last achieved in 2016 (and 7 other years in the Masie record), and is normally reached around the 3 - 4th week of February.  

MIA

 

 

 

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

Of 'extreme' interest to me is this just released report.

It would seem as though my 'fixation' on the status of Ozone was correct after all!!

I had realised that the dropping of the levels of Ozone was attributed to these fluorohydrocarbons

With all the emphasis on the interactions between Ozone and these compounds, I had incorrectly assumed that someone had investigated the properties of these GHG compounds. It seems not…

 

 

Substantial twentieth-century Arctic warming caused by ozone-depleting

WWW.NATURE.COM

---

Arctic warming is attributed to GHGs and feedbacks, but the specific contribution of ozone-depleting substances (ODS)—also potent GHGs—has never been...

and the total paper is here -

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0677-4

 

It would appear that these researchers are seeing nearly 50% of current warming is associated with these compounds in the Arctic...

Does this explain why I have been monitoring the no longer decreasing trends in Arctic Sea Ice? 

MIA

Edited January 21, 2020 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

Morning all...

Todays snow cover is hardly changed. 

Sea Ice shows moderate increases overall, with the exception of SOO.

        and      

 

 

To add a little more detail to the 'Ozone' story, I posted this on the climate change thread, which should give us all pause for thought. It comes from the lead professor of the project -

 

 

Interesting comments by Lorenzo Polvano the lead professor at Colombia University.... 

"The results highlight the importance of the Montreal Protocol, which has been signed by nearly 200 countries, say the authors. “Climate mitigation is in action as we speak because these substances are decreasing in the atmosphere, thanks to the Montreal Protocol,” said Lorenzo Polvani, lead author of the study and a professor in Columbia’s Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics. “In the coming decades, they will contribute less and less to global warming. It’s a good-news story.”

My comments -

He seems to be expecting (anticipating/predicting) a period of very reduced warming, if not a cooling  ahead, particularly at the poles, provided that these HFC's are brought under control.

It seems as though these compounds are easily detected with satellite monitoring,  and unlike CO2, they can easily be pinpointed giving us an easy and quick method of stopping their production.

About half a dozen companies across the world apparently are involved and at least one has already been stopped(the largest producer - in China!!).. 

With a 50% factor quoted for sea ice and a one third factor for temperatures, this paper should not be dismissed lightly. 

MIA

 

 

 

Edited January 22, 2020 by Midlands Ice Age

[ciel]

16 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Of 'extreme' interest to me is this just released report.

It would seem as though my 'fixation' on the status of Ozone was correct after all!!

I had realised that the dropping of the levels of Ozone was attributed to these fluorohydrocarbons

With all the emphasis on the interactions between Ozone and these compounds, I had incorrectly assumed that someone had investigated the properties of these GHG compounds. It seems not…

Substantial twentieth-century Arctic warming caused by ozone-depleting

WWW.NATURE.COM

---

Arctic warming is attributed to GHGs and feedbacks, but the specific contribution of ozone-depleting substances (ODS)—also potent GHGs—has never been...

and the total paper is here -

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0677-4

It would appear that these researchers are seeing nearly 50% of current warming is associated with these compounds in the Arctic...

Does this explain why I have been monitoring the no longer decreasing trends in Arctic Sea Ice? 

MIA

 

1 hour ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Morning all...

Todays snow cover is hardly changed. 

Sea Ice shows moderate increases overall, with the exception of SOO.

        and      

 

 

To add a little more detail to the 'Ozone' story, I posted this on the climate change thread, which should give us all pause for thought. It comes from the lead professor of the project -

Interesting comments by Lorenzo Polvano the lead professor at Colombia University.... 

"The results highlight the importance of the Montreal Protocol, which has been signed by nearly 200 countries, say the authors. “Climate mitigation is in action as we speak because these substances are decreasing in the atmosphere, thanks to the Montreal Protocol,” said Lorenzo Polvani, lead author of the study and a professor in Columbia’s Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics. “In the coming decades, they will contribute less and less to global warming. It’s a good-news story.”

My comments -

He seems to be expecting (anticipating/predicting) a period of very reduced warming, if not a cooling  ahead, particularly at the poles, provided that these HFC's are brought under control.

It seems as though these compounds are easily detected with satellite monitoring,  and unlike CO2, they can easily be pinpointed giving us an easy and quick method of stopping their production.

About half a dozen companies across the world apparently are involved and at least one has already been stopped(the largest producer - in China!!).. 

With a 50% factor quoted for sea ice and a one third factor for temperatures, this paper should not be dismissed lightly. 

MIA

The complete paper you refer to is available in the link posted by BFTV yesterday in the ‘New Research’ thread.

My reading of the paper, in its entirety, is that the purpose of the research was to quantify the long known of contribution of ozone-depleting substances (ODI)  to Arctic warming.   

As for the conclusions, my understanding is that the authors consider that if their research is supported by further research in this area, the implications are that the phasing out of ODIs will substantially mitigate the rate of Arctic warming caused by AGW.

I have not, unless I have missed something in the paper, read anything about anticipation of cooling of the Arctic.

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

3 hours ago, ciel said:

 

The complete paper you refer to is available in the link posted by BFTV yesterday in the ‘New Research’ thread.

My reading of the paper, in its entirety, is that the purpose of the research was to quantify the long known of contribution of ozone-depleting substances (ODI)  to Arctic warming.   

As for the conclusions, my understanding is that the authors consider that if their research is supported by further research in this area, the implications are that the phasing out of ODIs will substantially mitigate the rate of Arctic warming caused by AGW.

I have not, unless I have missed something in the paper, read anything about anticipation of cooling of the Arctic.

 

Ciel..

Thanks...

Outside the paper Professor Polano  has been giving interviews, and some more details.

He concludes thus -

'It is a good news story'.

My comments -

Lets just be happy that we have a probable method of a fairly relevant reduction in global warming, that can be monitored and implemented without spending trillions of pounds. 

Yes further research must be done quickly to identify the effects of all the GHG's involved. Many of which have been to produced to develop  'safer' halon gasses for refrigeration, not understanding that products which were produced as by products were equally as bad.

I showed a full list of all the gases thought to be involved and I will link it here.

https://agage.mit.edu/data/agage-data

Surely, within a couple of years (If we steam ahead) we have the means of at least bringing a certain control to the more serios aspects of CAGW?.

MIA

Edited January 22, 2020 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

Meanwhile Arctic sea ice continues to spread....

The latest Masie shows an extent increase of 140K Km2 in the last 2 days - (+54K and +86K), when the average for the time of year is about 35K per day.

As a result the various measuring organisations are now seeing us at the top of the last 16 years of measurements.

For example, the readily available Jaxa data,  is now at the 13th position in the last 16 years with  only 2009 and 2008 still outstanding above, (and we are roughly equal with 2007). We are now above 2005 and 2006. (see below) - with thanks to the ASIF.

We are now also seeing ice at 650K Km2 greater than the 2010 average, and that is from nearly 400K Km2 below at the start of October.. 

It shows that we are now running at nearly 7.5% quicker refreeze than normal for the last decade, and if we examine since October the 10th, it is no less than 10.5% faster, and is approaching the levels last seen in the early 2000's.

Conditions this year have been good for ice (but not exceptionally so), and it is not easy to see the reason for this year's performance as temperatures have averaged above normal for the last few months according to DMI  

The ice is still quite thin, but with temperatures going below average in the next few days we should expect quite rapid thickening.

        and  

It is worth noting that the Great Lakes have, (in the last few days) also starting to freeze over, and that this has rapidly spread to the St Lawrence Sea-way, increasing the refreeze in the Baffin ice area. Canada Met Organisation has just put out a very cold monthly forecast  for the NE Canada region, so growth can be expected to continue...

Great Lakes -

and    

 

and St Lawrence Seaway -

   

 

MIA

 

Edited January 23, 2020 by Midlands Ice Age

[ALL ABOARD]

Is there anyway you can compare the noaa ice and snow cover charts from this year compared to years from 2000's? 

Just want to see the difference visually as opposed to the graphs posted by MIA 

MIA great post BTW, love coming on here to read them. 

[Midlands Ice Age]

1 hour ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Is there anyway you can compare the noaa ice and snow cover charts from this year compared to years from 2000's? 

Just want to see the difference visually as opposed to the graphs posted by MIA 

MIA great post BTW, love coming on here to read them. 

All Aboard....

There is an interactive Tool at this location, but I find it tiresome because it always wants to give the lowest 3 years.

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

If you have a database manager such as Lotus Spreadsheet or Excel then you can download the files here - 

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/sea-ice-tools/

MIA

[Interitus]

1 hour ago, Mucka said:

 

Rate of change.