Snow & Ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019/20

[Midlands Ice Age]

Masie today....

(and auxiliary chat)

Masie today with just a (+8K) increase, with yesterdays (+37K) brings us back to 6th place for extent and 9th for area. this year.

Todays figure influenced by a SOO (-37K) loss. It appears as though a large chunk of ice pushed out from the coastline or has a sudden melt. I suspect it may well be back by tomorrow.

Elsewhere gains in most areas except Greenland(-18K),     with Baffin(+30K) and Bering(+24K) leading the way, and backed up by Barents(+6K). Also the Baltic(+2K) added to the big 'B' day today. NO not a toilet day"!)...

Over on the MOD thread people are getting excited about the sight of a big wave 2 pattern being mooted for 10 days time. Highs over the Aleutians and a responding high over Scandinavia. (That is why the excitement). 

So I thought I'd check the Ozone...

Wow  ....Massive excess Ozone over the Bering and Aleutians and the start of a build up in Eastern and Central Europe.

Is it coincidence?. Nothing has happened yet but it will be interesting to see events unfold.

Is it this that the models are reacting to, or is it the forerunner to the events? Or is it unconnected?.

I will look back at the last 5 days of Ozone to see if it is relevant. 

MIA 

 

[Katrine Basso]

Snow is gradually spreading into Europe:

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

Masie today  and a big fall of (-45K) in total ice extent..

With southerly winds extending into Barents a massive (-54K) was shaved off the previous record gains of 300K, and a further (-8K) was reduced in Greenland.

Elsewhere Bering increased again (+27K) but there was another (this time smaller loss) in the SOO (-6K). 

Baffin gained (+7K).

Looks like 2019 is trying to ensure it pulls back into the pack.

However very cold air has now extended into the whole Arctic with -60C  being recorded in Alaska, -50C in Siberia, and even a low of -35C was recorded by the Mosaic project in the middle of the Arctic Ocean, and the cold air continues to flow out into the Pacific,  well  into the outlook period. 

MIA

Edited December 30, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

Morning all...

US nic this morning shows the snow cover moving steadily south westwards in Eastern Europe.

The ice (unlike yesterday in extent), makes small gains with yesterdays losses in Barents and SOO being more restricted .

 

 

Bering, however continues to power onwards..

MIA

Edited December 31, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

Last Masie report until next year!

A gain of 64K Km2 today with most areas increasing in sea ice.

Greenland (+28K) and Baffin(+12k) led the way with Bering(+26K)  and SOO(+6K) acting as a strong back up.

Very cold air over the whole of the Arctic and getting colder next year (this week).

https://en.allmetsat.com/weather-forecast/arctic.php?city=prince-patrick-island-ca-nt

Click on the dots for 10 day weather forecast details for the whole of the area..

MIA

 

 

 

Edited December 31, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

US NIC today..   (Happy New year to all)

Snow cover extended further south into the Urals, and Western Russia now about to turn cold.

Sea ice looks to have had moderate increases in the outer areas, it now looks as though the SOO is about ready to put on ice again, so we could now have a few days of moderate gains.

MIA

[Midlands Ice Age]

5 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

US NIC today..   (Happy New year to all)

Snow cover extended further south into the Urals, and Western Russia now about to turn cold.

Sea ice looks to have had moderate increases in the outer areas, it now looks as though the SOO is about ready to put on ice again, so we could now have a few days of moderate gains.

MIA

As suggested earlier, a  quite good increase on Masie up to 13,000K Km2 now, with a gain of (+81K).

About 80% of refreeze season now completed - how far over 14,000K Km2 will it get?

The Atlantic front leapt into action again today with Barents(+16K), Greenland(+7K) and Baffin(+15K).

Another (+36K) added in the Bering Ocean. whereas even Central added (+7K) from the Atlantic movement.

SOO still dropped (-10K), but there was a surprise gain in the Yellow Sea  (+5K), which makes me expect increases in the SOO to come.

MIA 

 

              

[Daniel*]

Love your updates MIA, check daily view weather maps daily too and I don’t recall seeing Arctic so cold particularly in Pacific, this paints a major change to what we have seen in recent years. Very little significant WAA into Arctic this winter in helping perturb the PV, no wonder it is very strong. Seems clear to me a strong vortex is good for the sea ice, not good for us searching for winter weather in mid latitudes.

[Katrine Basso]

Not much change in the snow cover but there has been a slight increase of sea ice.

[Midlands Ice Age]

Masie backs up Katrine's suggestion above with a double average gain of (+86K Km2).

This was achieved almost exclusively with gains in the outer areas of Barents(+43K), Greenland(+14K) and Bering(+27K).

There is still no sign of a slowdown in these outer regions with a stationary  high pressure over Siberia, pulling in a strong northerly winds into the Bering Sea, and a low pressure of Kara, pulling cold northerlies over Barents, and an exceptionally cold Greenland.

Pretty well ideal for ice refreeze in  these regions.

         

 

MIA  

 

 

Edited January 2, 2020 by Midlands Ice Age

[Norrance]

 

Just saw that Norway has broken its January high temperature record at over19C. Snow mustbemelting back in that area I assume. 
https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&ved=2ahUKEwinocfR7-XmAhULQRUIHbjdAPEQFjACegQICxAG&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.co.uk%2Fnews%2Fworld-europe-50971446&usg=AOvVaw2xCY-DlPXm6-DdqLptquzg

[Midlands Ice Age]

On 01/01/2020 at 20:25, Daniel* said:

Love your updates MIA, check daily view weather maps daily too and I don’t recall seeing Arctic so cold particularly in Pacific, this paints a major change to what we have seen in recent years. Very little significant WAA into Arctic this winter in helping perturb the PV, no wonder it is very strong. Seems clear to me a strong vortex is good for the sea ice, not good for us searching for winter weather in mid latitudes.

 

1 hour ago, Norrance said:

 

Just saw that Norway has broken its January high temperature record at over19C. Snow mustbemelting back in that area I assume. 
https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&ved=2ahUKEwinocfR7-XmAhULQRUIHbjdAPEQFjACegQICxAG&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.co.uk%2Fnews%2Fworld-europe-50971446&usg=AOvVaw2xCY-DlPXm6-DdqLptquzg

Interesting 2 posts...

Both correct..

But the local area where this has occurred is famous for these affects 18.3 and 18.9C have previously been recorded there during these Fohn affects periods. It is the same natural phenomena that caused the warming in Scotland last week.

Looking at the snow charts (so far), Norway still looks pretty in tact. 

It would seem as though the WAA that it is bringing does not want to break out into the Arctic, as an SSW.

The cold seems to be being very much locked up this year in the Arctic and North America, whilst Europe (except for the North of Scandinavia) is being kept warm.

I will watch the next few days charts with interest.

MIA

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

8 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

 

Interesting 2 posts...

Both correct..

But the local area where this has occurred is famous for these affects 18.3 and 18.9C have previously been recorded there during these Fohn affects periods. It is the same natural phenomena that caused the warming in Scotland last week.

Looking at the snow charts (so far), Norway still looks pretty in tact. 

It would seem as though the WAA that it is bringing does not want to break out into the Arctic, as an SSW.

The cold seems to be being very much locked up this year in the Arctic and North America, whilst Europe (except for the North of Scandinavia) is being kept warm.

I will watch the next few days charts with interest.

MIA

Norway to get plenty of snow over the next few days  

[Midlands Ice Age]

11 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Norway to get plenty of snow over the next few days  

Thanks KW..

I was awaiting todays charts to ensure that the snow would hit the area. It again is going to miss us, as it moves off into Eastern Europe - at least it should help the snow and skiing over there..  

Meanwhile the snow cover on US NIS has not changed much at all today confirming yesterdays glitch in temps in Norway as a purely local phenomena.

Sea ice is very varied in the SOO at the moment (appears to be windblown), but has given  small increases in Barents and Bering again.

 

 

MIA

Edited January 3, 2020 by Midlands Ice Age
Wrong data

[Midlands Ice Age]

Virtual repeat of yesterdays USNIC..

No real change in the SOO, but a big gain in Barents and Bering. 

Barents now seems to be about to attack Novaya Zemlya from the Atlantic..

Snow cover no real changes..

 

MIA

Edited January 4, 2020 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

Masie report for today (including yesterday (as I was out yesterday pm)

Combined increase of 49K Km2 (+21K and +28K).

Greenland has taken a major hit in the last 2 days with a loss of (-42K).

Barents continues to increase steadily with a gain of (+34K) in 2 days.

Bering also increased on both days with (+39K). 

SOO continues to languish with little change (+11K).

 

Ice freeze conditions are now almost completely in the outer basin areas, and I will be reducing the number of posts.

It will be interesting to see if Baffin continues to stall, and also if Barents can continue with its near record growth this year. 

 

On a side topic the Mosaic project has now almost stopped data being sent out to private individuals, and it will be 2 to 3 years before much detail is released. 

They have experienced very cold conditions (-30 to - 35C) and storm forced winds around Xmas, and the ice is still unstable around the ship. They are. however, now  being pushed towards Fram, so they could arrive at their planned destination in the summer.

 

Also in other Arctic data comes news that at least 2 of the abnormal hotspots being recorded on 'Earth' - see below for a link have disappeared now that the data source used for comparison has been moved from the NCEP/NCDC SST datasets (used since 2014 ) have been exchanged for Met Office SST data. 

The 'old' data showed sea temperatures of between 13C and 20C just a couple of hundred miles to the SW of Svalbard (in winter and summer), and  a further 'hotspot' about 300miles to the SE of Svalbard on the way to the Novaya Zemlya Islands of between 7 and 10C.

These incorrect anomalies have been around for about 5 years, and have been proved very difficult to reconcile, as little  shipping uses the area..

The interesting thing would have been if the strong ice growth in the area of Svalbard (Barents) had actually frozen with a temperature of 18C!!!!

New 'Earth' representation here -

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/primary/waves/overlay=sea_surface_temp/orthographic=18.06,76.76,1914/loc=4.817,76.749

The 'old' NCEP representation is here -

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2019/01/07/0000Z/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp/stereographic=-53.22,91.40,2448/loc=6.211,77.966

Click on the sea area after clicking upon 'EARTH' and it will give the temperature for every position.

It makes me 'worry' about what else is hidden under the Arctic ice fields (from NCEP).

MIA

 

[Katrine Basso]

There have been very slight increases in sea ice and snow cover.

[Katrine Basso]

More continuous increase of snow:

[damianslaw]

Western russia doing poorly for snow cover, normally expect the snowline to have extended into Poland but now. Europe remains very mild throughout. Seems the only place colder than normal at the moment is NW Canada/Alaska thanks to that annoying pacific ridge. 

[Midlands Ice Age]

Back with a 3 day Masie report...

Total (Over 3 day) gain is +71K Km2  in NH  Sea Ice (+74, - 36K, +33K).

The major changes were recorded in Barents (-27K) and Greenland(-12K) as low pressure moved up towards the area with southerly winds following on. Baffin, however gained (+11K) and Central(+7K).

Over in the east  we saw gains in Bering of (+55K) and the SOO of (+37K), as the northerlies and very cold air persist over the area. The Baltic, Cooke inlet and the Yellow Sea all started to increase with gains of (+2, +1 and +3K).

The days of the northerly into the Pacific Ocean appear to be numbered.

At the moment we are running about 2C above average temperatures over the Arctic, and these are forecast to remain for the next few days.

Snow cover over Europe is still very weak. 

MIA

[Katrine Basso]

Slight increases in sea ice:

[Stravaiger]

The excellent NSIDC blog has just updated with this month’s post now live. Contains the normal summary and a good, concise review of the 2010s from a sea ice point of view: 

Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis | Sea ice data updated daily with one-day lag

NSIDC.ORG

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

10 hours ago, Stravaiger said:

The excellent NSIDC blog has just updated with this month’s post now live. Contains the normal summary and a good, concise review of the 2010s from a sea ice point of view: 

Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis | Sea ice data updated daily with one-day lag

NSIDC.ORG

 

Thanks Stravaiger….

They always have a good month end summary and this one with the review of the decade is of more interest. 

If I could make a few points -

It was interesting to see that they could detect very little change in the Antarctic.

My only criticism is that throughout the whole report they almost totally concentrated upon the Chukchi. (Discussed 7 times in terms of its slowing effect on ice formation), - and then they blamed its rapid refreeze for the fact that December was the 3rd quickest refreeze ever recorded!!.

Whereas, it was  not even mentioned that  the Barents rapid refreeze (during Nov and Dec) had added  more ice during the total rapid refreeze  period. It was not just December that saw the gain against average - the speed up  had occurred since mid October.  (where it was if you remember - at its lowest point).

I have included the Masie  maps below to see  what really happened in December (and hence before) to cause the large gain against normal.

        

I think you will find that the large ice extent gain in Barents and Bering have exceeded the gains in Chukchi.  

Also there is no acknowledgement that Baffin is very slow to ice over this year -

My 'quick' eyeball gives the following    (for December) -

Chukchi  (+200 K Km2) ,   Barents (+150K Km2) after (+200K Km2 in November), Bering  (+150K Km2) - which all  happened at the end of December. In addition,  the consistent loss in Baffin (-250K K2).  was not mentioned..

Chukchi is but one piece of the jigsaw.

The recent refreeze has not fitted into the conformities of the last decade. Not presenting the total position,  is in my opinion a mistake.

Whether it will  prove to be relevant when we get to the end of refreeze  is a different matter.

MIA 

Edited January 8, 2020 by Midlands Ice Age

[Katrine Basso]

There have been some increases and decreases of sea ice and snow cover.

[Midlands Ice Age]

Morning all with US NIC showing increases in snow in Asia, and now a large new area to the NW of the Caspian Sea.

This morning sea ice has reduced somewhat with drops in Barents and  Greenland, and very small changes in the East.

 

 

The last 2 day of Masie have seen large variations in the active sea areas -

Overall a 110K Km2 increase in total extent,  (+35K and +75k)

but that hides  a large swing, with a drop of (-72K) in Greenland (the first low of the season moving into the area from the south),  and large gains in Baffin(+79K), from the resultant strong northerly.

In the east smaller gains in Bering (+14K), but larger gains in SOO(+80K) made up the major changes.

MIA

Massive difference in temperatures now with generally very cold air over the western areas, but it has now turned warmer over most of Northern Russia(relatively).

  

which funnily enough reflects almost exactly the Stratospheric Ozone -

 

 

Edited January 10, 2020 by Midlands Ice Age