Snow & Ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019/20

[Midlands Ice Age]

Morning all 

US NIC report..

Snow not too much change.. with slight loss in Europe, but snow spreading north east of the Caspian Sea now.

Sea ice small losses on the Atlantic front compared to good increases everywhere else. 

Yesterday's article on the second ice expedition, has been updated today to say that a Norwegian ice breaker is in the area of the trapped men and the supply ship, and keeping an eye on the situation. It seems the men are determined to complete their expedition without aid. So it looks like the press article was over pessimistic.

MIA

Edited December 6, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

Masie in..... and its another WOW..

A double century increase exactly , most of which came by curtesy of the US!!

Hudson(+102K), and Baffin(+92K) both underwent flash freezes as the cold air hit the NE of Canada.(see CR below)

Elsewhere,  steady performances with Chukchi (+33K), now within range of Bering (+3K), ESS(+3K),  and with SOO(+9K)  regaining yesterdays loss, the eastern front could well be the next target for rapid refreeze.  

The Atlantic front again retreated slightly, though the signs are now of colder conditions here again, with Barents(-20K), Greenland(-20K) and Central(-6K).

CR now showing a very large area of sub -40C areas in Siberia and with the Arctic temperature anomaly dropping quite quickly now the sea ice looks to be heading towards a mid-table extent position shortly.

     

 

In the stratosphere, the slow remorseless march of the Ozone continues to proceed from southern Asia. Though possibly with slightly less vigour.

 

The warm 'forcing' caused by it,  is applied only slowly it would seem, but whilst it is 'lob-sided' in the Arctic it continues to apply side-ways pressure and is slowly strangling/restricting the PV in the upper reaches.  If this situation continues and  does not result in a Siberian centred Vortex then I will be surprised. 

It was noticeable to me that last weeks forecasts of blizzards in the UK occurred when a further burst of Ozone was forecast to squeeze the Vortex from the European side. This, so far, has not happened. 

But it may yet occur...

 

MIA

Edited December 6, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

Morning all … State of snow and ice this morning...

Large changes in snow distribution with a melting in southern Scandinavia and North Central Europe as the milder air over the UK is swept eastwards again. Southern Asia continues to build.

Ice  changes look very similar to yesterdays, but Baffin is not quite so extreme. 

For info…. Rutgers snow and Ice Centre has placed the  snow extent at the end of November as the 5th highest (October fifth highest also) since their records began.  (55  years).

Also of interest is that the last 10 years have seen a large increase over previous years and particularly those of the 70s and 80's.. 

Greenland Surface Mass balance is also above the average at the same date.

Very interesting that as the NH sea ice melts that the snow coverage seems to be increasing.

Interesting report in from the Mosaic project. They are finding it increasingly tough, and have to re-site all their experiments,  except one. Apparently, they have had the unnerving experience of seeing their areas set up for experiments literally 'floating' around past their ship, as violent ice movement takes place!! Some were originally placed several miles away!!!

Sounds like a sequel/twist is coming up of 'Pirates of the Caribbean' to me!!!   

Nearly all cables need replacing now. (Reports later)

MIA

 

Edited December 7, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

Masie today...

Nearly a wow,,,,     with just (+143K KM2) increase, about a century above average for the time of year.

More net gains for the Pacific sector Chukchi(+41K), Beaufort(0),  ESS -1K) and Bering(+15K). SOO also increased (+11K).

Elsewhere more sensible gains in North America with Baffin(+18K) and Hudson(+44K).

Greenland (-8K) and Central(-6K) both lost ice again

However Kara(+3K)  and Barents(+24K) both gained ground.  

 

More details from the Mosaic Project.

It seems as though they were hit by a severe winter storm (gale force 9) last weekend (Nov 30th), and had just about recovered some of the experiments 'lost',  when they were hit by an 'anticyclonic storm' with winds around 30 - 40kper hour for 2 or 3 days. In the middle of this they were hit by a sudden change in winds (about 135 degrees) and this has crumpled the ice into large 'leads', with ridges. They are now stating that these ridges have now become 'mountains' - their words not mine......

So with the movement of the ice completely wrecking their township experiments they are now having to re-design the whole 'township'. Below for the original plan for the layout, that has now been wrecked.

      Scale is something like 5 miles across.          

Hopefully they will have better weather(less wind)  this week, which will also help the transfer of people and material from their relief icebreaker, which is due to reach in the next couple of days. 

Some of these young laboratory scientists must be finding life quite difficult and they will be quite pleased to be going home for Xmas when they are relieved.......

They are still heading for Ellesmere Island (due North) rather than  Fram Strait (West), however they are making painfully slow progress as the ice this year appears to be avoiding the Fram  graveyard at the moment. . This could well mean that they have to manufacture a different ending to the one than they expected, (lets hope they do not end up in the Beauford Gyre).. The east coast of Greenland is one of the poorest in the North, for ice,  this year, hence perhaps less first year ice could be lost??. 

MIA

Edited December 7, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

Snow and Ice Chart this morning from US NIC.....

Little change in the snow data. Small gains here and small losses there,

Sea ice has continued the trends of the last 4 days, which have resulted in large daily gains.

Looks like another large gain in Hudson, most others show a small gain.

Of interest the Arctic Sea Ice Forum (ASIF) based upon JAXA data, have moved this year up to 4th lowest as per yesterday.

I expect it to be 6th and in the middle of the pack by Tuesday.

This represents a major increase of ice in the last 2 months. At the beginning of October we were about 250K Km2 the lowest on record. There has been an increase today of about 400K Km2 above the average rate of growth since then. This has all been achieved by virtue of the much stronger growth in the Atlantic sector, since the Pacific sector is still just  below normal (now).

What has changed to cause this? 

MIA

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

Back with todays Masie..

Another small wow....

Total extent again about a century over the average with again of +168K Km2. 

As per the last 3 days Hudson flash freezes (+98K), with Baffin(+8K)  and keeps the US sector moving rapidly.

Pacific now playing catch up with Chukchi(+23K), ESS(+2K), Bering(+5K) and SOO(+13K).

Kara(+12K) keeps expanding, together with a good gain in Barents(+21K), and Greenland still negative at (-15K).

Also today we see signs of ice formation in the outlaying seas areas of Cooke Inlet and the Yellow Sea.  Both about on the average dates. 

Current status from Masie

and Jaxa (ASIF produced)   

Where current, with todays well above average rise,  will place us in 5th or even 6th or 7th position looking at the last 14 years, and possibly above the average for the last 10 years...  

A further report from the MOSAIC project suggests calmer conditions and thicker ice now so that they can get into their new township,  with plans for a small aircraft runway in case of an emergency.  The wind is now turning into the east and south east for a while so it may drive them  along a more meaningful direction towards Fram.

The latest  CR. however does indicate the presence of a 'jet streak' between the high developing over the central Arctic, and the current low tracking into  the Arctic from Scandinavia.

This is interesting, (to me)  as it conforms to the 'Ozone theory' expectations that I have been recently theorising on here.  

MIA

.  

 

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

Morning everyone..

US NIC this morning - showing ice gains (above average?) in all sea areas .

Probably another century today - well above average.

Snow has decreased in Europe as the westerly/north westerly influence moves eastward now into Russia.... Elsewhere no significant changes. 

    and yesterdays  

 

Edit - Just noticed that ice looks to have 'blocked' the Bering Strait today.

This is an unusual way of freeze in the area. It indicates that Alaska (In particular) and the Siberian peninsula  have turned very cold with easterly north easterly winds in the last few weeks.

 MIA

Edited December 9, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

Masie today...

No area recorded a sea ice loss today.

Another above average gain (by 100K) of +158K Km2.

The Pacific side reduced its rate of growth, although Chukchi (+7K), ESS(0) and Beaufort(0) hardly moved,   Bering(+7K) continued to enforce its blockade of the Straits and SOO also continued its daily gains(+4K). 

The west continued to strengthen its grip  with Kara(+1K), Barents(+38K) and Greenland(+9K)  rapidly pulling back on recent smallish losses. US did not disappoint again with Hudson(+40K)  and Baffin(+47K). There was even a gain for Central(+7K) as the Atlantic front pushed back to the north of Svalbard and Baltic consolidated with a further (+1K)..

Despite CR temperature anomalies showing more 'fires burning' over nearly the whole Arctic Ocean, the ice extent (as depicted by Masie and Jaxa (from ASIF)) moved up a place in the ice creation tables. Jaxa now looks likely to go to 7th position (lowest)  in the next 24 hours. This represents a gain of around  500K Km2 in the last 2 months,  compared to the 2010 averages.

CR 'fires' anomaly below -

   

Ice growth appears to have little correlation with the Arctic temperatures at the moment. It appears to be  being driven more by wind. The people(experts)  in the MOD and Strat thread are also continually expressing confusion with the signals this year......

Ozone in the stratosphere and the tropopause  continue to pour in from the Himalayas Range. It is now centred at a high concentration over Canada, with the next wave pushing in towards Japan and the SOO. This could well end up in the eastern Arctic basin. Could this high level of Ozone be causing incorrect  anomaly 2M temperatures over the sea water?

I see that Greenland is now showing minimum temperatures of around -50C, and maxima around -45C, that is around average for the time of year. 

MIA

   

Edited December 9, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[Snipper]

A different view for a change.  Hudson’s Bay filling up. 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

7 hours ago, Snipper said:

A different view for a change.  Hudson’s Bay filling up. 

How poor is Western Europe compared to western North America!

[Midlands Ice Age]

7 hours ago, Snipper said:

A different view for a change.  Hudson’s Bay filling up. 

Thanks S..

Hudson Bay is indeed the big gainer today, Growth seems to have stopped on the Pacific side, but continued expansion on the Atlantic front will mean an above average gain again today (though reduced compared to the last few days).

Snow cover again relatively unchanged.

MIA

[ArHu3]

20 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Thanks S..

Hudson Bay is indeed the big gainer today, Growth seems to have stopped on the Pacific side, but continued expansion on the Atlantic front will mean an above average gain again today (though reduced compared to the last few days).

Snow cover again relatively unchanged.

MIA

We're no longer bottom of the pack but I think the next 20 days will be crucial, since that seems to be the period where other poor years lagged

Edited December 10, 2019 by ArHu3

[Midlands Ice Age]

ArthurH?..

Exactly correct... was going to mention that we are at a cross-roads in my pm post.

Hopefully with a graph or two.

MIA

[Midlands Ice Age]

More subdued sea extent increases from Masie  today... but still above average with +102K Km2.

As suggested earlier, the Canadian segment held sway with Baffin(+13K) and Hudson(+57K), providing most of the increase.

Greenland(+7K, Barents(+15K) and Central(+8K) all benefitted from the new push southward in the Atlantic sector, but Kara(-12K) contracted back on the coastline. 

The Pacific front stabilised somewhat with ESS(+1K), Beaufort(0), Chukchi(+9K) and Bering(-18K) losing sea ice. Apparently the strong south easterlies pushed the ice back out again.

Reviewing the current status of Ice compared to the last 10 - 20 years is best achieved by displaying charts which are produced by ASIF.

Where black is increased ice this year,

and          

This also shows that 2019 is now within 1% of four other years, which would then make it 9th lowest in the period.

This represents a huge recovery in the last 2 months. In fact one of the quickest recovery (in terms of total extent) since 2005. The gain represents about 7% greater than the average for the period.

This has come despite -

1) many people claiming very much increased sst's  at the start of the refreeze season in all sea area after the major summer melt..

2) An average increase of anomaly 2M temperatures of between 2.0 and 3.0C during this same period. In fact I am not aware that on any single day has the anomaly dropped below zero.

Something does not add up here, clearly ice changes are not 'controlled' by temperatures....  

So good news that the ice has recovered, but can it keep this high rate of increase, and hence  have more meaningful long term significance?.

Well - currently I estimate that there is still about another 700K Km2 inside the Arctic Ocean, that would be expected to refreeze, (I include Central, ESS, Chukchi(still 200k to refreeze) , Beaufort, Laptev, Kara(still 200K), Greenland(still 300K), and Bering. The one query is Barents, which this year has been running about 200K Km2 above normal, it may well give us a 'bonus' this year and end up higher 

 

The big unknown this year is Barents(Still 250K, but may be 500K this year to go), as it has a lot of room (and time) to expand southwards this year, even though it is above average already..

 

After that we look towards the 'outer areas' -

Two groups here -  Hudson will freeze over quickly now and Baffin Bay (including Labrador Strait), where growth so far has been slower than normal .

Basically these latter areas are  dependent upon  Atlantic SST's. 

Secondly there are the other sea areas which are totally dependent upon conditions in those (outside the Arctic) areas -.

These include the southern half of Bering Ocean, and the Sea of Okhotsk, which are huge unknowns (possible large (or small)  in terms of forecasting extent of ice), and then the Yellow Sea  and Cooke Inlet, which are all dependent upon the Pacific temperatures. 

  and                      

Both of which have started slowly but are now showing signs of life.

In order to keep this year 'gaining' , both areas will need to see more rapid  growth, and  the outer areas may well not freeze to any degree  until 2020.

So for me, we need to see Barents and Baffin combination and the same with SOO and Bering before we can make any predictions for the final figure.

Indeed the next few weeks may well see a drop to normal rates of growth for the period.

MIA 

Edited December 10, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[Katrine Basso]

Snow and Ice Chart: Monday 09th December 2019

Small decreases of snow cover in Scandinavia but increases of snow cover for Russia.

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

17 hours ago, Katrine Basso said:

Snow and Ice Chart: Monday 09th December 2019

Small decreases of snow cover in Scandinavia but increases of snow cover for Russia.

 

Sea ice increases have abated somewhat. Small gains in most  sea areas except probably Kara.

MIA 

[Midlands Ice Age]

Masie today....  very small increase of just +2K KM2.

The North Atlantic hurricane seems to have disrupted ice growth oi the Atlantic front.

Losses in Kara(-16K), Barents(-12K), Greenland(-4K), Central(+5K), and Baffin(-13K) all contrasted with gains on the Pacific side.  Here Chukchi(+9K), Bering(+3K) and SOO(+28K) just about made up for the losses in the west.

Hudson(+2K),the only other area of note.

I am wondering if we have not had a change of the coastal mesh today. If so,  tomorrow will see the customary  rebound.   

MIA

 

Edited December 11, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

MIA

I believe there is a 9 year cycle of warm water current pulses within a 72 year cycle.  Last pulse was 2008/9 then it takes a while for the circulation to complete.  I’ve always believed that the Arctic ice has melted bottom upwards, not top downwards. If the seas are now cold, any arctic anomaly of  +2-3c still will have incredible cold air temps.....and refreeze will happen ‘progressively’ if the arctic ocean is cooling......just my thoughts on this.

 

BFTP

[Midlands Ice Age]

18 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

MIA

I believe there is a 9 year cycle of warm water current pulses within a 72 year cycle.  Last pulse was 2008/9 then it takes a while for the circulation to complete.  I’ve always believed that the Arctic ice has melted bottom upwards, not top downwards. If the seas are now cold, any arctic anomaly of  +2-3c still will have incredible cold air temps.....and refreeze will happen ‘progressively’ if the arctic ocean is cooling......just my thoughts on this.

 

BFTP

BFTP..

You may well be correct, but it is a very complex issue..

I have observed that the rate of ice growth appears to be 'fairly' unrelated to the actual 2M temperatures as are being shown.

I have noticed that at times they seem to be more related to the wind direction.

However CR has shown consistent low SST's in the North Atlantic ice front area, compared to the last few years. (see below the SST anomaly, as per current).

Climate Reanalyzer

CLIMATEREANALYZER.ORG

So that indeed be more relevant.

MIA

Edited December 11, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

This mornings USNIC...

 

More sea ice around Hudson, but Barents seems to have pushed well south.

The rest looks windblown!! 

The snow looks to have pushed well  eastwards from Europe into Asia.

MIA

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

A nascent 'recovery' today after yesterday' s blip.

An average of the 2 days looks to be about correct.

Masie latest - an increase of   +88K Km2, with a two day average of 45K.   

Hudson once again dominated with (+69K), and Baffin (+4K).

On the Atlantic front - totally the opposite of yesterday  with Barents(+27K), Kara(+10K), Greenland(+9K) all wiping out yesterday's sudden losses.

However Chukchi(-12K), Bering(-23K),SOO(-1K) went the other way.

Meanwhile we have a game of switch-back on the DMI 80 degrees temperature chart ….

 

  Looks like a typical chartists breakout.... But which way? 

  

 

Hopefully  an optimistic note,  was that Baltic gained +3K yesterday, and has visibly widened the ice into the Gulf of Bothnia.

 

https://cdn.fmi.fi/marine-observations/products/ice-charts/latest-full-color-ice-chart.pdf

  

On other matters the MOD thread are beginning to see models moving the core of the vortex to our North East. 

As predicted by the continuing Ozone event up in the Stratosphere, which just keeps piling pressure to the  top of the vortex,  from the ozone rich US and  pushing it further eastward...

MIA

 

Edited December 12, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[Interitus]

11 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

 

As predicted by the continuing Ozone event up in the Stratosphere, which just keeps piling pressure to the  top of the vortex,  from the ozone rich US and  pushing it further eastward...

MIA

 

The ozone is a tracer, it is not forcing it is following the forcing.

[Midlands Ice Age]

2 hours ago, Interitus said:

The ozone is a tracer, it is not forcing it is following the forcing.

Interitus….Thanks for your response.

I have developed my views after watching a huge lob-sided build up of Ozone this year in the Arctic, in combination with the chemistry of Ozone.(I trained as a chemist, hence my original interest). 

I have also extensively read the following report (and others)….

https://www.geos.ed.ac.uk/~dstevens/publications/isaksen_ozone_climate_ec03.pdf

For details of why Ozone is not a 'follower' please read the above report, where one only needs to pay particular attention to Chapter 1 and particular to the table/graph on page 28, which details relative forcing, which clearly shows that it will act as a cooling agent, when in the stratosphere.

I have read the whole document several times. On an initial reading it seems as though your beliefs are correct, as the report is very much concerned with (at the time) very much lowering of Ozone levels in the atmosphere.

But more detailed reading identifies that the effect of Ozone in the Arctic stratosphere is admitted to be poorly understood and requires further research. I have thus looked for more research on this particular topic, but found very little.

This year is the first year when we may well see any impact of very much increased stratospheric Ozone, and since it requires  its precursor warming agent (the increased UV radiation in the stratosphere, and which has mainly occurred in the last 2 years), it  is unlikely that it could have occurred in recent climate history. 

Impacts of the vastly increased amount of Ozone (several times in places, up there) in the stratosphere AND the solar forcing (U.V. hitting the earth up 30-50%) has not been seen, possibly, for many centuries.

This year has seen a huge apparent anomalous warming in the central and eastern Arctic since the middle of October.

Yet the ice has grown more quickly during this time since the late 90's. This despite the apparent warmth as recorded by climate 2M  models.

Is it co-incidence that this occurred at exactly the same time that waves of Ozone entered the Arctic stratosphere?

Clearly something has changed this year up there. The SST's of the open water on the Atlantic side (and now the Pacific) are nothing like we have seen in recorded history and this has undoubtedly led to the ice rapid expansion in this area. 

 

What is being seen in the stratosphere resembles an SSW, in that a warming of the stratosphere is occurring, but according to the experts it is not a normal SSW.  So, since we know  that Ozone is more in concentration in the stratosphere than anything else (except possibly the inert gasses) what else could be causing the warming? 

..... Time will tell, but the explanation above is the only one that appears to fit the observed Arctic effects this year. (Can you add/supply anything to help me identify the cause?). 

MIA 

 

Edited December 13, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[Interitus]

1 hour ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Interitus….Thanks for your response.

I have developed my views after watching a huge lob-sided build up of Ozone this year in the Arctic, in combination with the chemistry of Ozone.(I trained as a chemist, hence my original interest). 

I have also extensively read the following report (and others)….

https://www.geos.ed.ac.uk/~dstevens/publications/isaksen_ozone_climate_ec03.pdf

For details of why Ozone is not a 'follower' please read the above report, where one only needs to pay particular attention to Chapter 1 and particular to the table/graph on page 28, which details relative forcing, which clearly shows that it will act as a cooling agent, when in the stratosphere.

I have read the whole document several times. On an initial reading it seems as though your beliefs are correct, as the report is very much concerned with (at the time) very much lowering of Ozone levels in the atmosphere.

But more detailed reading identifies that the effect of Ozone in the Arctic stratosphere is admitted to be poorly understood and requires further research. I have thus looked for more research on this particular topic, but found very little.

This year is the first year when we may well see any impact of very much increased stratospheric Ozone, and since it requires  its precursor warming agent (the increased UV radiation in the stratosphere, and which has mainly occurred in the last 2 years), it  is unlikely that it could have occurred in recent climate history. 

Impacts of the vastly increased amount of Ozone (several times in places, up there) in the stratosphere AND the solar forcing (U.V. hitting the earth up 30-50%) has not been seen, possibly, for many centuries.

This year has seen a huge apparent anomalous warming in the central and eastern Arctic since the middle of October.

Yet the ice has grown more quickly during this time since the late 90's. This despite the apparent warmth as recorded by climate 2M  models.

Is it co-incidence that this occurred at exactly the same time that waves of Ozone entered the Arctic stratosphere?

Clearly something has changed this year up there. The SST's of the open water on the Atlantic side (and now the Pacific) are nothing like we have seen in recorded history and this has undoubtedly led to the ice rapid expansion in this area. 

 

What is being seen in the stratosphere resembles an SSW, in that a warming of the stratosphere is occurring, but according to the experts it is not a normal SSW.  So, since we know  that Ozone is more in concentration in the stratosphere than anything else (except possibly the inert gasses) what else could be causing the warming? 

 

As indicated in the paper, it is the reduction in ozone not its presence which causes a net cooling effect - reducing interaction with UV in the stratosphere and reducing blocking of IR radiation from the earth surface. The majority of the UV interaction is at lower latitudes, of course there is none now in the polar night, and it is from the lower latitudes that much ozone makes its way to the pole. Currently overall NH polar ozone is within normal bounds, a recent peak was seen with increased poleward transport associated with the vortex displacement -

source: https://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/NH.html

 

Ozone transport has long been used as a tracer for stratospheric flow, indeed it was important in visualising the vortex with planetary wave breaking, the "surf zone" etc eg see this 1985 paper -

Quote

Transport of Ozone in the Middle Stratosphere: Evidence for Planetary Wave Breaking

Abstract

Data from the Nimbus 7 Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere (LIMS) for the period 25 October 1978–28 May 1979 are used in a descriptive study of ozone variations in the middle stratosphere. It is shown that the ozone distribution is strongly influenced by irreversible deformation associated with large amplitude planetary-scale waves. This process, which has been described by McIntyre and Palmer as planetary wave breaking, takes place throughout the 3–30 mb layer, and poleward transport of ozone within this layer occurs in narrow tongues drawn out of the tropics and subtropics in association with major and minor warming events. Thew events complement the zonal mean diabatic circulation in producing significant changes in the total column amount of ozone.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0469(1985)042<0230%3ATOOITM>2.0.CO%3B2

Recent warming in the stratosphere is just a normal early winter event - best taken to the strat thread for further discussion!

Edited December 13, 2019 by Interitus

[Midlands Ice Age]

4 hours ago, Interitus said:

As indicated in the paper, it is the reduction in ozone not its presence which causes a net cooling effect - reducing interaction with UV in the stratosphere and reducing blocking of IR radiation from the earth surface. The majority of the UV interaction is at lower latitudes, of course there is none now in the polar night, and it is from the lower latitudes that much ozone makes its way to the pole. Currently overall NH polar ozone is within normal bounds, a recent peak was seen with increased poleward transport associated with the vortex displacement -

source: https://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/NH.html

 

Ozone transport has long been used as a tracer for stratospheric flow, indeed it was important in visualising the vortex with planetary wave breaking, the "surf zone" etc eg see this 1985 paper -

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0469(1985)042<0230%3ATOOITM>2.0.CO%3B2

Recent warming in the stratosphere is just a normal early winter event - best taken to the strat thread for further discussion!

Interitus….

Your reference above is an old one, and talks about the Ozone effect of wave breaking.

It is absolutely correct. Ozone is transported by this action. No question.

But that  is not a part of the discussion. It is where and what happens when Ozone  reaches its 'target' that I am discussing.

Ozone has always(?) been transported to the poles in  winter, and yes monitoring will show the wave breaking.

 

Remember we have both more Ozone (reasons discussed previously discussed), and more UV breaking into the atmosphere (with low solar)...

This autumn  the outcome is different -  Summer 2019- 2020 - (Up until Dec 12th in the link below).

This year the action has been to promote a lob-sided Ozone excess in N Canada and the Bering Sea area (Pacific Gateway),  so far,  which has been waxing and waning for the last 6 weeks. See your graph above, which also shows the peak at the beginning of this month. Also see the following link which shows where it has been located ..

https://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/ozone_maps/movies/OZONE_D2019-11-01%P1D_G^360X240.IOMPS_PNPP_V21_MMERRA2_LNH.mp4

and the very latest map -

Is still showing the same distribution and anomaly.

It has,  a displaced large concentration of Ozone  over the west, and also shows  a very  low concentration  in the East. It is this differential which I believe could well  produce a thermal differential in the stratosphere, causing instability and hence a pushing of the Stratospheric polar vortex. It is this 'pushing' displacement  action at the top, which  is why I expect to see the PV eventually develop over the East this year (my forecast!).

If it does not happen then I may have the mechanism wrong. 

Compare this to last year (run the mp below for the period up to the end of December and you will see a later outburst of Ozone and then a general 'spread' of the Ozone giving little chance for differential of the temperatures), and hence no 'pushing'' effect.

https://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/ozone_maps/movies/OZONE_D2018-11-01%P1D_G^360X240.IOMPS_PNPP_V21_MMERRA2_LNH.mp4

This may well yet still happen this year.        We will see.

This year. for the last 6 weeks,  we have seen enhanced ice growth. What has caused this? The temperatures are showing increased anomalies (average 3 degrees C), and mainly over the Arctic Ocean directly under the Ozone 'blob' (where temps over 15C above average are frequently shown as the anomaly) … Still the ice grows faster than average.....

During the 'beast from the east' outbreak of Feb 2018, the Arctic  sea ice suddenly became more enlarged and much thicker,despite forecasts claiming that the SSW warming would cause reduced sea ice.

See the sea ice volume map and graph  for May 2018.

There is much still to be observed and settled in order to explain why these changes in Arctic sea ice occur.

MIA