Snow & Ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019/20

[Beanz]

2 minutes ago, BleakMidwinter said:

You can click on a message and set that user to "ignore posts" - it means you miss anything of interest, but it does mean you can skip the tweets... 

Don’t get me wrong, I quite like seeing some snow pics, maybe a separate ‘snow photos/tweets’ thread would be good.  

[John88B]

Personally I've been loving the tweets of snowy pics from around the world, particularly the snowstorms hitting parts of the US. Keep them coming I say.

[claret047]

9 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

!!

Thanks   - its good to know that reasonably new comers take part in the thread. Thanks for responding.

Arctic ice is currently about 4th lowest in the ice records which are kept on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum, and is a clear 4th (about to become 5th lowest) on the Masie records. There are many  different official record keepers, and most use a selection of satellites and when you add in that they all have different algorithms, they come up with different answers.

You have to choose one and stick to it.

I have chosen Masie because it is quick and easy to understand, and has a good selection of area comparative maps and a very clear picture of the Current ice in the North Pole. It takes its data from the US National Ice Centre  (US NIC), which is one of the most accurate, and is used by all ships in the major countries  in order to avoid nasty accidents. 

So its good enough for me.

It is not however recognised as the  official dataset by the Climate change scientist because it only goes back to about 2004.

The link for Masie is shown below, and it will show you a good selection of maps on extent data -

https://nsidc.org/data/masie/

However to answer your question, the answer is that the ice is very much  in 'catch up' mode.

Last year saw a continuation of the ice conditions of the previous 15 - 30 years, with slowly  reducing extent and hence volume.

This was evident in a late and slow recovery in Sept and early October of this year. This left the ice extent at its lowest level since the satellite record were started. 1979 for the oldest.

Since then, this  autumn, the ice has been recovering, and more interestingly, in different places, in comparison to the  last 15 years.

Its recovery is now fairly spectacular being amongst  the highest ice increase in the last 15 years during this period.

However, it is not this that interests me. I am more interested in the change in the atmosphere /stratosphere over the Arctic this year, and it appears to be this that is  causing more extensive cold than for many years up there.

Also, this cold appears to be being produced by a different mechanism to those of the recent past, and this mechanism, I believe, is not being picked up correctly by the satellite based forecast models. The same satellite data is used to supply data to the climate model datasets. This modelled temperature is given by satellites  which view the stratosphere top/down and have to have many calculations applied to end up with a ground level temperature.

There are only 6 actual temperature stations in the Arctic. So it is not easy to ensure that the satellite presented calculations are correct. Hence my checking of the temperature by looking at actual stations.

It looks to me as if the models are not handling correctly that Ozone in the stratosphere is in abundance this year. It is a gas which itself generates heat when it reacts with a different particles or molecules. It is

not inert and I believe that this is not recognised  and hence throws the models.

We  appear to be at the start of a new renewed different cold period in the Arctic, but this is not yet verified as it is too early in the process. Also, it is to be proved whether any effects are permanent or not, before any claims are made, but it is very interesting.....

MIA

 

Good Morning MIA

I trust you are well. Thanks again for another very interesting read.

One of my other interests is philately and by coincidence yesterday afternoon we held our fortnightly meeting which included a guest speaker who provided several frames covering postal services in Canada's Arctic Northwest Territories from the weather stations located there.

I have found the following link covering these stations to assist me in producing my report to local press and national magazines.

High Arctic Weather Stations | The Canadian Encyclopedia

WWW.THECANADIANENCYCLOPEDIA.CA

---

History, politics, arts, science & more: the Canadian Encyclopedia is your reference on Canada. Articles, timelines & resources for teachers, students & public.

Are the 6 stations you have mentioned include any of those listed in the above article.

Kind regards

Dave

 

[Snipper]

28 minutes ago, BleakMidwinter said:

You can click on a message and set that user to "ignore posts" - it means you miss anything of interest, but it does mean you can skip the tweets... 

Thanks for the tip but, as you say, possibly you might miss something of interest.  Mind you some doing multiple tweet postings don’t say much or anything.

I like the odd link to a snowy picture but I’m fed up waiting for them to load in so just go to the next post.  Means the thread has has great long sections not downloaded.

A snowy tweet thread would be good.  Any posting here could be restricted to one or two maximum. 

[Midlands Ice Age]

1 hour ago, claret047 said:

Good Morning MIA

I trust you are well. Thanks again for another very interesting read.

One of my other interests is philately and by coincidence yesterday afternoon we held our fortnightly meeting which included a guest speaker who provided several frames covering postal services in Canada's Arctic Northwest Territories from the weather stations located there.

I have found the following link covering these stations to assist me in producing my report to local press and national magazines.

High Arctic Weather Stations | The Canadian Encyclopedia

WWW.THECANADIANENCYCLOPEDIA.CA

---

History, politics, arts, science & more: the Canadian Encyclopedia is your reference on Canada. Articles, timelines & resources for teachers, students & public.

Are the 6 stations you have mentioned include any of those listed in the above article.

Kind regards

Dave

 

Dave...

Yes thanks pretty good, .although I keep having to have bits removed!!!   (mainly suspect moles).  And you and the wife?

Thanks for the above...

I checked the stations out and 2 are now no longer in service -  Isachsen and Mould Bay.

One is right at the top of Ellesmere Island and yes that is one I would classify as the 'Arctic'.

The others Resolute Bay, Alert, etc, I would classify as definitely in the Canadian Archipelago,  rather than in the Arctic Ocean.

I  am aware that there are quite a few stations around those areas from the North west passage threads.

A couple are sending out helium  balloons up to the stratosphere . It is a pity that they do not appear to do that on the Russian side at the moment - since that is where the real action is currently.  

The note you have supplied (thanks) also indicates that some have been closed down but these days use satellites for their readings.

PS I notice from checking them out that temperatures there are of the order of -20C to  -30C  at the moment.

Pretty cold considering it is considered fairly mild there at the moment? 

From CR-  Ellesmere Island has a small positive anomaly...

Gives me a chance to point out the continuing high temperature anomalies still in the Pacific side!!!! Can uou hear the drum yet? Bang, bang!!

MIA

Edited November 27, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

1 hour ago, Snipper said:

Thanks for the tip but, as you say, possibly you might miss something of interest.  Mind you some doing multiple tweet postings don’t say much or anything.

I like the odd link to a snowy picture but I’m fed up waiting for them to load in so just go to the next post.  Means the thread has has great long sections not downloaded.

A snowy tweet thread would be good.  Any posting here could be restricted to one or two maximum. 

I think I reluctantly agree..

People with high speed links (I have fibre), are OK, although I have noticed sometimes I have to wait for possibly 5 secs for them all to load. It must be quite bad for 2nd and 3rd network supported  equipment.

Perhaps we can go to  Pics thread? Although I for one find the actual local temperature reports very useful - which are buried deep within them, usually.! 

I do find KW's 'reports' extremely helpful as they are the only readily available source of real-time  data, by which we can judge the charts and satellite reported data. So KW, please do not stop! but would it be poss to reduce the duplicated same locality snow shots? 

MIA 

Edited November 27, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

Todays US NIC 

Snow data about the same, although the US/Central Canada  seems to have gained as per KW's snow posts.

Ice appears to have retracted a little after yesterdays big gains, particularly in Chukchi(?) and also Kara and surprisingly Baffin.

Probably a small overall gain yesterday.

Off out to work now... It is a leaf clean up day today, working along-side guys who are installing fencing at the bottom of the garden. 

Back with more details when Masie is issued at about 14:30..

MIA

 

Edited November 27, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

5 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Todays US NIC 

Snow data about the same, although the US/Central Canada  seems to have gained as per KW's snow posts.

Ice appears to have retracted a little after yesterdays big gains, particularly in Chukchi(?) and also Kara and surprisingly Baffin.

Probably a small overall gain yesterday.

Off out to work now... It is a leaf clean up day today, working along-side guys who are installing fencing at the bottom of the garden. 

Back with more details when Masie is issued at about 14:30..

MIA

 

Masie ice detail of the data.

A slightly smaller than average total gain of +46K Km2. 

Pretty flat growth across the board with reasonable gains in Barents(+17K) and Greenland(+21K), as the Atlantic front continues south,  Elsewhere the only changes of note were Hudson(+13K) and the SOO(+4K).

Small losses in Bering(-2K), Kara(-1K), ESS(-3K) and Chukchi(-4K), maybe as the winds switch around, but pretty flat conditions rule in the Arctic just now.

News on the diminishing Antarctic Ozone hole here. Now completely closed. 

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/news/article/antarctic-ozone-hole-has-closed-in-near-record-time-for-2019

 

 

In direct opposition to the above, the Ozone in the Arctic circle continues to reach out westwards and now covers about half the ocean. 

Meanwhile the pattern of Ozone mimics that of the previous Ozone burst that we observed, and continues to intensify with the low pressure areas all lined up now along the Russian Siberian coastline,bringing in cold air from Siberia into the Arctic on the north side of these depressions..

The current SLP from C.R. -

and the temperature anomaly for the same time -

Still showing extremely high anomalies (up to +10 to +15C) under the Ozone, but rapid cooling now showing in the Western Arctic.

This now looks like a rerun of the last Ozone burst. 

Lets see what DMI temperatures for the Arctic circle makes of it later on.

MIA

 

Edited November 27, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[cheeky_monkey]

7 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Masie ice detail of the data.

A slightly smaller than average total gain of +46K Km2. 

Pretty flat growth across the board with reasonable gains in Barents(+17K) and Greenland(+21K), as the Atlantic front continues south,  Elsewhere the only changes of note were Hudson(+13K) and the SOO(+4K).

Small losses in Bering(-2K), Kara(-1K), ESS(-3K) and Chukchi(-4K), maybe as the winds switch around, but pretty flat conditions rule in the Arctic just now.

News on the diminishing Antarctic Ozone hole here. Now completely closed. 

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/news/article/antarctic-ozone-hole-has-closed-in-near-record-time-for-2019

 

 

In direct opposition to the above, the Ozone in the Arctic circle continues to reach out westwards and now covers about half the ocean. 

Meanwhile the pattern of Ozone mimics that of the previous Ozone burst that we observed, and continues to intensify with the low pressure areas all lined up now along the Russian Siberian coastline,bringing in cold air from Siberia into the Arctic on the north side of these depressions..

The current SLP from C.R. -

and the temperature anomaly for the same time -

Still showing extremely high anomalies (up to +10 to +15C) under the Ozone, but rapid cooling now showing in the Western Arctic.

This now looks like a rerun of the last Ozone burst. 

Lets see what DMI temperatures for the Arctic circle makes of it later on.

MIA

 

actual temp readings in that area are no more than 3 or 4 c above the norm for this time of year

[Midlands Ice Age]

DMI Temperature down by another 0.9C 

Absolute temp now down below -250K again, and is still falling rapidly.

This despite the apparent +10C anomaly over at least a third of the Arctic Ocean according to CR?????

Compare this with Climate Reanalyser below -

 

Now it is clear that somewhere there is an inconsistency.

From all I have seen and has been reported, it appears to be CR which is out of kilter. Ice growth has been much faster than usual whilst we have had the Ozone in the last 4 weeks. I find it impossible to believe that rates of growth would be this large with the temperatures shown by CR.  

So  -   DMI is produced from Euro data (ECM), whereas CR is based upon GFS(US based)  data.

This does not really matter, except that the CR GFS analysis data  is used by NOAA for their Climate data and datasets on the basis that it is more accurate in the Arctic regions.

It is known that NOAA record higher temperature in the Arctic. Could this be the reason?

In fairness. I have not noticed this differential before.  But it has now happened in exactly the same way on 2 discreet occasions. This points, IMO, to the fact GFS is  unable to process Ozone in the Stratosphere correctly.

How low will real temperatures have to fall before  the scientists in charge at NOAA, wake up to the fact?

There is potential for further (smaller) falls... Let us see what happens.

MIA   

[Midlands Ice Age]

MASIE Time Series Plots | National Snow and Ice Data Center

NSIDC.ORG

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MASIE Time Series Plots

For people interested in the current state of the Arctic extents, the above link should prove useful.

Basically shows how most areas (except Baffin and Hudson Bay) are now running at normal 'icing' for this time of year.

Barents and Greenland are ahead at this point in time. (the Atlantic front)

ESS, Laptev, Kara and Central Arctic and Bering are on-track, and are now mostly full.

Beaufort  Chukchi are now back on track(ish in the case of Chukchi) , after a very, very slow start - which hit the news headlines.

The outer sea areas of Baltic and SOO are also on track.

This appraisal is based upon the last 5 years of Masie data.

The overall chart for November for the sea ice extent, shows that after the rapid freeze up in Laptev, ESS and Kara at the end of October that the refreeze has moved ahead at average rates despite temps being about 3-4C above average.

 

From here on in,  volume should become more of an issue.

 

MIA

 

Edited November 27, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[Aleman]

This might help for those checking ground temps in the Canadian Arctic if you have not already found it before:

Nunavut - Weather Conditions and Forecast by Locations - Environment Canada

WEATHER.GC.CA

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Choose a location to view accurate and detailed weather information

Click on Provincial Summary and takes you to this table of current readings:

Nunavut - Weather Conditions Summary - Environment Canada

WEATHER.GC.CA

---

Environment Canada's weather web site provides official weather warnings, current conditions, forecasts, and weather models, for public and marine areas in...

Eureka looks to have been around -33C for 24 hours or more, which is a bit colder than average I think. CR reading a whisker too high, maybe? I'm curious to see what tomorrow's CR will say.

Climate Reanalyzer

CLIMATEREANALYZER.ORG

 

Edited November 28, 2019 by Aleman

[SteveB]

When ever I look at CR, world always looks it's on fire.

Edited November 28, 2019 by SteveB

[Seasonality]

8 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

MASIE Time Series Plots | National Snow and Ice Data Center

NSIDC.ORG

---

MASIE Time Series Plots

For people interested in the current state of the Arctic extents, the above link should prove useful.

Basically shows how most areas (except Baffin and Hudson Bay) are now running at normal 'icing' for this time of year.

Barents and Greenland are ahead at this point in time. (the Atlantic front)

ESS, Laptev, Kara and Central Arctic and Bering are on-track, and are now mostly full.

Beaufort  Chukchi are now back on track(ish in the case of Chukchi) , after a very, very slow start - which hit the news headlines.

The outer sea areas of Baltic and SOO are also on track.

This appraisal is based upon the last 5 years of Masie data.

The overall chart for November for the sea ice extent, shows that after the rapid freeze up in Laptev, ESS and Kara at the end of October that the refreeze has moved ahead at average rates despite temps being about 3-4C above average.

 

From here on in,  volume should become more of an issue.

 

MIA

 

The Baltic graph was very interesting. Early freeze this year.

[Midlands Ice Age]

This mornings US NIC shows little overall change for total ice extent, though some losses seen today in Chukchi and the Atlantic front has stalled.  Baffin is also stalled again.

Snow is very much unchanged.

The charts are showing that the Arctic is currently in a 'flat' period, but the ring of low pressure over the Russian coastline is moving very slowly northwards and may be slowly deepening..

Winds are generally southerly over the Pacific side, but northerly in the Atlantic forced by the heights around Greenland and the lows over Russia.

However, on the Pacific side it looks as though things will change with an elongated  low coming into the Bering Sea which looks as if it will eventually bring Siberian air to this area, as the slow slides into the basin..

Let us watch what happens.

 

I am not much good as a forecaster!!!

MIA 

Edited November 28, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[Aleman]

Alert -29C and Eureka -34C this morning so little change overnight. I think that is erring onto the cold side for them but CR still has Ellesmere Island as a bit warm.

[Midlands Ice Age]

10 hours ago, Aleman said:

Alert -29C and Eureka -34C this morning so little change overnight. I think that is erring onto the cold side for them but CR still has Ellesmere Island as a bit warm.

Aleman..

 Thanks for the above...

I am combining the temperature and Ice data tonight, as it looks as if a problem has occurred within Masie.

The Masie figures show a net loss of -81K Km2..... This a huge loss, being brought about by just 1 major event and a couple of other minor changes.

Chukchi lost (-74K) -  just about possible - see below, and Bering lost(-15K) and ESS lost (-4K).

Now I am prepared to accept this as just about feasible as southerly winds have burst up through Bering and into the Pacific area, though this weather change appears to be temporary.

However what I do find odd is that none (except one) of the other areas have changed at all with Beaufort(0), Laptev(0), Kara(0), Barents(0), Greenland(0),  Baffin(0), CAA(0), Central(0) and  finally SOO(0) and Baltic(0). 

Now I can accept that some might be full, but the odds on this happening without something else occurring must be huge.

Hudson has added (+11K).

I suspect that some form of mask (used for analysing the data) has incompletely been changed.

I will look at tomorrows report with interest.

Meanwhile of note is the DMI temp has now dropped below 250K (again) this year. This has not happened this early for quite a few years. The temperature dataset of DMI  reduced by -0.9C.

A drop of 0.6C tomorrow will see us around the average for the period 1970 - 2000, with a strong possibility of more drops to come. 

Before I commit to further forecast drops, I want to check the Ozone again...….

Here  we are...

As can be seen the focus of the Ozone wave has now passed over the Eastern Arctic and moved into Alaska and Canada.

There is however still a second(or a second blob of the second wave?) hanging back into Siberia and I assume that will move over the Arctic. This  second 'pulse' is not as strong as the one just past through.. though I think it could well  be sufficient to  keep a smaller drop in the temperature going, -   unless there is a sudden collapse/destruction of the Ozone wave.!

The first proper test of my 'theory' is approaching.????????

 

For information,  CR temperature profile attached. Cooling is now occurring in the Western Arctic Ocean (No Ozone there!), but the east is still (as someone wrote) looking as though it is on fire.... Also for interest Ellesmere Island is in the +3 to +5C territory.

Before I comment further let us see what happens to temps over the next 2 days.

 

MIA

 

 

 

 

 

Edited November 28, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

US NIC for today (thu) - issued at 23:30 thursday. (cricket again!)

Snow build up in the USA, Eastern Turkey and Japan main island. Little change elsewhere. 

 

As suggested 3 hours ago, the ice maps for yesterday look a bit suspect now. 

Today has seen very respectable increases for Kara, Barents, Greenland, Baffin and Hudson Bay.

The Pacific front looks have stalled slightly again, but nothing like the loss of yesterday,

 

MIA

Edited November 28, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[Aleman]

Midlands Ice Age - I have some thoughts you might be interested in, depending how much you already know.

I have become a bit cautious of sea ice models over the years It might be to do with how some people quote their output without considering their differences and design purposes, which are not always well highlighted ( e.g. some screen out difficult coastal areas that can give false positives, while others do not.). They probably do a job over the medium and longer term comparisons on the grander scale but might not be reliable for the short-term finer tuning. For example, there has been fluctuating ice in the Baltic for 4 weeks which I've yet to see show up on any of the Arctic models.

http://baltice.org/pdf/IceChart_20191128_Baltic.pdf

I sometimes find local reports of ice where models have not shown any and I've sometimes found disagreements between models. You can sometimes tell on temperature anomaly maps that there is ice where there is a sharp cold anomaly that remains and does not mix or disperse. If you click on anomalies in this DMI link and hit loop, you can see the persistent sharp cold anomaly along the northern edge of the Bay of Bothnia over recent weeks, and in recent days at the eastern end of the Gulf of Finland at St Petersberg.

DMI Satellite SST analysis

OCEAN.DMI.DK

I've been following these links most days and the indicated ice and the oddly sharp cold anomalies tie in very well. I've also seen such anomalies on Arctic models for days before ice has appeared in pretty much just that spot. I think the ice was already there and the models are not great at picking it up at the margins but temperature anomalies give it away.

Ice can form in a number of different ways. A thin solid layer can quickly form when cold and still. Choppier windy weather can see a thicker layer of frazil and nilas form (think a soup of small ice crystals that make water thick, shiny and dark like an oil slick). I've previously had discussions with somebody and disagreed a bit about how well these are picked up. Models are allegedly "tuned" to pick it up but I remain sceptical. I've often suspected that nilas does not show well but then suddenly gets picked up after snow tops it up or wind and swell calms and it freezes over quickly. (Perhaps one of the flash freezes you refer to.) If the underlying sea temperature is still on the warm side, you might even get a sudden increase in ice shown from deposited snow only to have it melt again into a layer of nilas or even melt away completely. This means you don't necessarily need an influx of warmer air for early ice to melt back in the freezing season - more turbulence or melting snow  or convective upwelling could see an early thin layer of measured ice cover fall back.

My layman's take is that models disagree with each other and the real world sometimes so should not be taken too literally from day to day, and different routes of ice formation can trick models in the intermediate phases between 100% liquid and 100% ice. When you link flash freezes and melt-backs to ozone concentrations, just realise that a sudden increase might also be due to a significant snowfall or drop in wind that can make invisible nilas rapidly become ice as far as models are concerned and that such early flash freezes could reverse in some cases due to local sea-level weather (or subsea) conditions without it necessarily having to be warmer.

These are just some thoughts a layman has picked up from a little reading about sea ice formation. I discovered it is far more complex than I had realised - potentially even far more complicated than I have suggested here . I thought I'd mention a couple of points that might interest you if you did not already know. I dare say there will be others here with far more knowledge.

I do like your research linking ozone levels to melt and freeze. Do keep it up. I'm just maybe adding in some factors to complicate things for you!

 

 

Edited November 29, 2019 by Aleman

[Midlands Ice Age]

6 hours ago, Aleman said:

Midlands Ice Age - I have some thoughts you might be interested in, depending how much you already know.

I have become a bit cautious of sea ice models over the years It might be to do with how some people quote their output without considering their differences and design purposes, which are not always well highlighted ( e.g. some screen out difficult coastal areas that can give false positives, while others do not.). They probably do a job over the medium and longer term comparisons on the grander scale but might not be reliable for the short-term finer tuning. For example, there has been fluctuating ice in the Baltic for 4 weeks which I've yet to see show up on any of the Arctic models.

http://baltice.org/pdf/IceChart_20191128_Baltic.pdf

I sometimes find local reports of ice where models have not shown any and I've sometimes found disagreements between models. You can sometimes tell on temperature anomaly maps that there is ice where there is a sharp cold anomaly that remains and does not mix or disperse. If you click on anomalies in this DMI link and hit loop, you can see the persistent sharp cold anomaly along the northern edge of the Bay of Bothnia over recent weeks, and in recent days at the eastern end of the Gulf of Finland at St Petersberg.

DMI Satellite SST analysis

OCEAN.DMI.DK

I've been following these links most days and the indicated ice and the oddly sharp cold anomalies tie in very well. I've also seen such anomalies on Arctic models for days before ice has appeared in pretty much just that spot. I think the ice was already there and the models are not great at picking it up at the margins but temperature anomalies give it away.

Ice can form in a number of different ways. A thin solid layer can quickly form when cold and still. Choppier windy weather can see a thicker layer of frazil and nilas form (think a soup of small ice crystals that make water thick, shiny and dark like an oil slick). I've previously had discussions with somebody and disagreed a bit about how well these are picked up. Models are allegedly "tuned" to pick it up but I remain sceptical. I've often suspected that nilas does not show well but then suddenly gets picked up after snow tops it up or wind and swell calms and it freezes over quickly. (Perhaps one of the flash freezes you refer to.) If the underlying sea temperature is still on the warm side, you might even get a sudden increase in ice shown from deposited snow only to have it melt again into a layer of nilas or even melt away completely. This means you don't necessarily need an influx of warmer air for early ice to melt back in the freezing season - more turbulence or melting snow  or convective upwelling could see an early thin layer of measured ice cover fall back.

My layman's take is that models disagree with each other and the real world sometimes so should not be taken too literally from day to day, and different routes of ice formation can trick models in the intermediate phases between 100% liquid and 100% ice. When you link flash freezes and melt-backs to ozone concentrations, just realise that a sudden increase might also be due to a significant snowfall or drop in wind that can make invisible nilas rapidly become ice as far as models are concerned and that such early flash freezes could reverse in some cases due to local sea-level weather (or subsea) conditions without it necessarily having to be warmer.

These are just some thoughts a layman has picked up from a little reading about sea ice formation. I discovered it is far more complex than I had realised - potentially even far more complicated than I have suggested here . I thought I'd mention a couple of points that might interest you if you did not already know. I dare say there will be others here with far more knowledge.

I do like your research linking ozone levels to melt and freeze. Do keep it up. I'm just maybe adding in some factors to complicate things for you!

 

 

Aleman...

Thanks for the above.... I am aware of some of the problems you describe.

It is an area totally enmeshed in confusion....

Not only do  I have the Baltic detail maps of ice coverage,  but I have them for all the inland sea areas such as Hudson Bay, Bering, and the Great Lakes. I keep an 'eye' on them most days, as a doublecheck.

I chose Masie as it basically seems to best  represent these minor sea areas due to the large amount of coastal ice in the areas. Open ocean sea ice is not fraught with the same problems.

I started looking at ice about 10years ago, but am still not an expert!!!!

There are so many factors (wind, temperature, salt,  solar, clouds, snow) which can all affect sea ice development, and when this is combined with  all the different types of ice you refer to above makes it all very complex.

I have looked at  the various models but they all have some degree of difficulty in determining particularly coastal ice, mostly because of their spacial characteristics and accuracy of the satellite data.

Masie utilises  the data issued by the National Ice Centre (NIC) and it has grids of 4Km X 4Km.  Masie (NIC) also use some degree of manual interpretation when out of line situations are encountered. A good thing in my opinion.

Most of the others use other satellites which operate at 24KmX 24 Km. They are not accurate enough for detailed coastal work, and they have to use special 'grids' and 'sieves ' when dealing with coastal ice. 

I came across the grids about 4years ago when using the NSIDC products. They showed large areas of ice around the  Russian coastlines in summer, when none could possibly have been there and the detailed maps had none. I then also found out that the 'climate' ice datasets made an allowance for the salt content of the ice, which typically takes about 2 - 4 inches off of the depth.  - Usually there is a 'blip' in the data when a new 'sieve' is installed.

Also further adjustments were made a couple of years ago on the climate datasets concerning the monthly volume of ice figures. More recent years were reduced by an average of about 2.8% when the ice was forming or melting, (and 1.6% overall), which persuaded me that Masie (although not such a long running dataset) was more accurate on a day to day basis. Particularly as it is used by ocean going ships in preference to many of the other products.

HOWEVER today, I find that the  'download' option is missing from Masie. (hopefully to be fixed) and also that from Oct 1st it started using data of sea ice thickness from NSIDC. This (I think) only affects the volume data  not extent, but  if you look at Masie volume you will see a major divergence on the volume charts since that date.

Additionally,  some of the other products also attempt to produce more accurate data by what is termed 'area'. Extent is inaccurate in that it assumes that a whole grid is 'icelocked' if 25% of it is covered. Area is an attempt to overcome this problem, but it still suffers from the resolution issue as above. Typically area is about 10-15% less than extent at any point in time, although it can vary, and some people measure 'concentration' as area/extent and suggest some relevancy in the debate.

Although I am not able to download the detail of the sea ice today, I can see that the overall extent has increased by a large amount as the extent has increased by at least a century gain (rounded 10.2K KM2 to 10.4K Km2). Most of this has occurred in Kara, Barents, Greenland and Baffin as expected assuming that Ozone is having an impact 'down below'.

So yes I recognise that there are many problems associated with ice growth measurement.

After looking at everything, I am convinced that Masie is potentially the best vehicle for looking at short-term variations(a few days maybe) and that trends should be looked at in weeks. 

To answer your query....

The current situation is that these 'Ozone' bursts seem to pass through in a maximum of about 10days.  Climate datasets  will not pick up any changes quickly enough to be able to analyse and use that to predict the final outcome. That is the least, IMO, 

 for anything to be proved correct.  That is my  major reason for using Masie.

MIA

More !!

Also concerning the large heat difference of say CR over ocean and ice.

I too am aware. I wonder whether the 'problem' has something to do with the algorithms of calculating the temperatures over open sea water.

I say this because when the Ozone started to move over Siberia the temperatures fell to below -40C, and these temps were picked up by CR...(still are),,

            

 

Scrap that   ---- the -40C is shown as being under a +10C anomaly!!

    

Edited November 29, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

Finally downloaded Masie today...

And wow did I underestimate?

I suspect that the problem with yesterday has been rectified. with a massive 205K Km2 increase today.

Apart from slight falls in Chukchi(-5K) and ESS(-3K), (probably as I suggested,  confirmed the falls of yesterday), we had really large gains everywhere else.

Kara(+31K) and Barents(+52K),Greenland(+18K) and Baffin(+31K) together with Central(+8K),  rapidly advanced the Atlantic front.

Hudson(+54K) moved in to 'flash mode', and there were gains for Baring(+4K), Baltic increased slightly(+1K) and SOO(+16K).

So very rapid enhancement across the Atlantic front, (as I forecast after the initial Ozone attack) appears to be now in full swing.

Temperatures across most of the Arctic have now started hitting the mid -30'Cs. Places in Siberia are having minimums  around -40C.

To me, this looks like a cool start to the winter season. 

According to the Strat thread no official SSW  has occurred or will occur in the next week. (possibly not for 2 or 3,  at best).

As far as I can see, continued cooling in the Arctic can only be caused by a couple of conditions/features -

1) The Polar Vortex moving to Siberia (has not happened for several years), but it has not happened yet and we are already cooling..

2) The effect of Ozone in the Stratosphere..  

I am becoming more and more convinced.

 

Actual Temperatures -

These are the actual temperatures being shown around the Arctic today,    and the forecast for the next 10  days.

Kotel’nyy Island, Sakha, Russia

Updated over an hour ago

-31°C

 

Wind: 11 KMPH

Humidity: 77%

Cloudy

 

Sat 30

-30°

-37°

Sun 1

-34°

-36°

Mon 2

-35°

-38°

Tue 3

-34°

-36°

Wed 4

-34°

-37°

Thu 5

-31°

-32°

Fri 6

-30°

-31°

Sat 7

-29°

-30°

Sun 8

-28°

-28°

Mon 9

-27°

-29°

I have found this website giving Arctic wide temperatures,,,

https://en.allmetsat.com/weather-forecast/arctic.php?city=prince-patrick-island-ca-nt

This shows  only Wrangle Island and Barrow not joining in the -30C fun, (until next weekend). So there is still some warmth around the Baring.

The rest looks bitterly cold.

Here again is the CR version of events-

                 

DMI temp now at the lowest for the year, having dropped a further 0.9C in the last 2 days. 

MIA

 

Edited November 29, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

Big gains again in US NIC. 

Snow  back to southern Norway and Sweden,  Also a large dumping in North China for the first time.

Sea ice as per yesterday, with gains in Kara, Baffin and Hudson, and small losses in the Pacific quadrant.   

[Allseasons-Si]

Nice to see Scandi completely covered now,only a matter on time,you don't need that massive chunk over western Asia if we tap into a NE'ly .

Edited November 30, 2019 by Allseasons-si

[Beanz]

That’s a great picture for this early in the season, brilliant coverage for Scandi zones!

[Midlands Ice Age]

Masie reporting a century gain,  yet again (+99K Km2).

Once more the gains are centred on the Atlantic front.   (I think any northerly that reaches the UK this year could well be very potent!!! maybe even an iceberg or two?

Gains in Kara (+33K,now nearly filled-in the area east of NZ), Barents(+15K),but Greenland dropped (-8K), whilst Baffin(+16K) and Hudson(+38K -  is making up for lost  time),  Central(-3K) lost, but not certain where.

Bering gained (+9K)  to place it back where it was 3 days ago, but losses in Barents(-5K) and Chukchi(-9K).

Outer sea areas  - SOO(+2K) and Baltic(+1K).

For interest ice is now forming opposite to the Baltic in Murmansk. This is a sure sign of early cold in the area and the Barents Sea.                                         Also, ice is now forming in the Labrador Strait for the first time.

 

Ozone little changed anywhere  with pockets in both Siberia and now Canada, with a connection across Beaufort and Chukchi and into Siberia (and still more backing up,yet to come). However a large Arctic positive anomaly is still ongoing, so I think the current conditions will continue for some while yet..

 

I have found an excellent reference for the  Ozone and Stratosphere and Troposphere coupling.  It is from 2003, and was incorporated in the coupled climate models, (but based upon the period up to 2003) ,  but it is quite technical and long. I am ploughing through it!!!!

Lots of questions answered, but lots still to be explained (their comments discuss these , but I agree with them. I now need to track down any subsequent work )…  I will try to do a review  at some point in the next few days.

 I am getting  more convinced that we are witnessing something different from the last 30 - 50years,  at the moment. (hint). 

Link below for anyone really interested. I suggest it should go into  any online libraries. (for Blessed Weather).

https://www.geos.ed.ac.uk/~dstevens/publications/isaksen_ozone_climate_ec03.pdf

MIA

Edited November 30, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age