Snow & Ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019/20

[Midlands Ice Age]

Up late watching cricket...

USNIC has updated.

Some new snow around the Caspian Sea, otherwise little change.

New ice in all sea areas again. (including the Caspian)

MIA

[Big Dave]

7 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Up late watching cricket...

 

Pretty disastrous wasn’t it?   Like model watching sometimes.  

[Midlands Ice Age]

Time for this evenings Masie extent update...

An above average increase of (+86K KM2), keeps the extent moving up the league table.

This achieved by increases all the way along the Arctic front , with Kara(+25K), Barents(+6K) and Greenland(+7K) all rising strongly. Baffin was unchanged today, but Hudson  continued to grow(+24K).

Chukchi continues to fill in the bite (+17K) and Beaufort(+2K) continues to fill in.

The next 2 -3 days look crucial as strong Northerly winds are pushing the ice southwards  but after that it look as though a major storm is due(?)  to hit the area.

Gains in Baring Sea(+3K) and the SOO(+2K)  continue to keep interest for when the Baring Straits are filled.

 

All the above as the temperature of the Arctic falls again.

Another 1.0C off the DMI Central Arctic temperature yesterday. 

That's now 6.5 degrees of the 11C rise now retracted.

How much longer can this drop continue?

I suspect that depends upon whether the wave producing the Ozone survives.....  

Off to check it out now. 

Probably back later with the cricket...

MIA

Edited November 24, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

Back early????

The ozone over Bering is waning somewhat and moving into Canada.

However a really powerful wave has broken out over the Sea of Othtusk, and northern Japan,

This is  likely to reach the Arctic in 2 days time.

 

 

https://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/Scripts/big_image.php?date=2019-11-22&hem=N&section=HOME

Also of note in yesterday's Ozone chart is the fact that the reported  'no Ozone' hole of North West Europe does not exist. It is somebody trying to make a name for themselves.

As suggested the amount of Ozone is not zero, but it is about 1/2  to 2/3 of that over the Bering Straits.  

Which all suggests to me that the current situation with increasing ice away from the Ozone wave will continue a bit longer yet.

 

Also

(especially for Mosaic fans is a C.R. map of the Polar Region). 

Climate Reanalyzer

CLIMATEREANALYZER.ORG

Looks very much like the threatenned   small cyclone is indeed  hitting them today. No real info has come through as of now..

MIA 

Edited November 24, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Red warnings issued, major snowfall with avalanche threat over northwest Italy

WATCHERS.NEWS

---

As intense snowfall is ongoing over the higher mountains across northwest Italy, models indicate over 1 500 mm (59 inches) of snow this...

 

[Frost HoIIow]

Live video of snow falling in the central Asian city of Bishkek.

Saima Telecom Live

LIVE.SAIMANET.KG

---

Все что нужно

Supposed to snow heavily for the next 12 hours. I do like how the falling snow flakes shine in the blue light. This can be a pretty interesting place in Winter. I've seen some right dumpings on this camera.

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

I provided wrong link of the weather currently around the Polarstern…

 Try this...

         Shows the small cyclone right over the ship...

That's better…  (poor people!)

MIA

Edited November 24, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[Turnedoutniceagain]

East of the Urals now completely covered

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

On to todays Masie...  (late I am afraid!)

An increase of just (+17K) in the ice yesterday ( a smaller than usual increase).

Chukchi continues to play catch up (+28K) still being blown by Northerlies for one more day.

Alongside, ESS dropped by (-2K), Bering (-1K)  and Beaufort was unchanged.

Decreases on the Atlantic front today after the storm had pushed through just to the North, with Kara(-12K) and Barents(-7K).

Baffin had a pull back day (-11K), but Greenland was positive (+9K) and Hudson continued steadily onward (+8K).

 

 

I feel that today I  must continue with the Temperature of the Arctic debate as exemplified by the DMI (central Arctic) series.

It has dropped again for the 6th day running after reaching 261K in the recent warming after the last Ozone wave passed through.  That is now a reduction of 7C in the last 6 days.

This cooling/warming/cooling (again) cycle has happened at exactly the same time as 'waves' of Ozone have been moved into and then away, and now the latest wave is coming through.

Yesterdays Ozone chart -

It shows a massive build up of Ozone now in the Pacific about to enter Baring.

No bursts of warm air (or colder air) were observed either entering or leaving the 'weather' levels of the troposphere during the last 2 - 3 weeks....

The large level of temperature fluctuation appears to be a totally 'in situ' process. 

 

 

How does/can this happen??  

It is known that high levels of Ozone in the stratosphere cause cooling. (However In the tropospheric levels,  ozone gas causes warming)..

The question is what causes this almost immediate cooling response?

There is no doubt that following on from the banning of Chloro Fluoro and  Bromo hydrocarbons (CFC's)   that the levels of Ozone are beginning to climb in the world. This years unusual  SSW in Antarctic (Ozone is normally destroyed below -80C) has meant that little Ozone has been destroyed this year. 

No one is certain (yet) exactly what effects this will cause.  

There is no doubt that in the stratosphere Ozone produces heat, by chemical reactions, with incoming ionizing energy. There is also no doubt that we are experiencing much higher levels of high energy ionising rays/ions into our Stratosphere/atmosphere - as expected during  the lower solar minimum being experienced at the moment.

This is verified by both the fantastic Northern lights sightings at present, and also by balloon data being sent into the upper atmosphere. Figures in California have seen large increases with (1 - 2 times occasionally being recorded), but an average of 50% compared to what was recorded 5 years ago (solar max).

Could this be driving the excitation in our stratosphere,   which in some way causes exothermic reactions? Any heat generated  at this height is easily lost to space. In addition It has been proposed that the increases in temperature at height can trigger the well known process of adiabatic cooling as this warmer less dense air begins to  move downwards under gravity.

It is all very interesting..... The data showing the cooling/warming  has now almost certainly been validated. Ozone looks to be the cause, as at these levels very little apart from a extremely small amount of H20, and various Oxides of Nitrogen,  are present.

I am spending time going back over the DMI temperature record looking for similar temperature occurrences in the past.

Now we have a database of Ozone, it will be interesting to see any historical correlation.

MIA 

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

US NIS..

Snow much the same, with a continued strengthening in Southern Asia. 

Much bigger gains today in ice than yesterday,. The only exception is Baffin, which looks to have contracted somewhat.

Back later...

 

MIA

[Midlands Ice Age]

9 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

On to todays Masie...  (late I am afraid!)

An increase of just (+17K) in the ice yesterday ( a smaller than usual increase).

Chukchi continues to play catch up (+28K) still being blown by Northerlies for one more day.

Alongside, ESS dropped by (-2K), Bering (-1K)  and Beaufort was unchanged.

Decreases on the Atlantic front today after the storm had pushed through just to the North, with Kara(-12K) and Barents(-7K).

Baffin had a pull back day (-11K), but Greenland was positive (+9K) and Hudson continued steadily onward (+8K).

 

 

I feel that today I  must continue with the Temperature of the Arctic debate as exemplified by the DMI (central Arctic) series.

It has dropped again for the 6th day running after reaching 261K in the recent warming after the last Ozone wave passed through.  That is now a reduction of 7C in the last 6 days.

This cooling/warming/cooling (again) cycle has happened at exactly the same time as 'waves' of Ozone have been moved into and then away, and now the latest wave is coming through.

Yesterdays Ozone chart -

It shows a massive build up of Ozone now in the Pacific about to enter Baring.

No bursts of warm air (or colder air) were observed either entering or leaving the 'weather' levels of the troposphere during the last 2 - 3 weeks....

The large level of temperature fluctuation appears to be a totally 'in situ' process. 

 

 

How does/can this happen??  

It is known that high levels of Ozone in the stratosphere cause cooling. (However In the tropospheric levels,  ozone gas causes warming)..

The question is what causes this almost immediate cooling response?

There is no doubt that following on from the banning of Chloro Fluoro and  Bromo hydrocarbons (CFC's)   that the levels of Ozone are beginning to climb in the world. This years unusual  SSW in Antarctic (Ozone is normally destroyed below -80C) has meant that little Ozone has been destroyed this year. 

No one is certain (yet) exactly what effects this will cause.  

There is no doubt that in the stratosphere Ozone produces heat, by chemical reactions, with incoming ionizing energy. There is also no doubt that we are experiencing much higher levels of high energy ionising rays/ions into our Stratosphere/atmosphere - as expected during  the lower solar minimum being experienced at the moment.

This is verified by both the fantastic Northern lights sightings at present, and also by balloon data being sent into the upper atmosphere. Figures in California have seen large increases with (1 - 2 times occasionally being recorded), but an average of 50% compared to what was recorded 5 years ago (solar max).

Could this be driving the excitation in our stratosphere,   which in some way causes exothermic reactions? Any heat generated  at this height is easily lost to space. In addition It has been proposed that the increases in temperature at height can trigger the well known process of adiabatic cooling as this warmer less dense air begins to  move downwards under gravity.

It is all very interesting..... The data showing the cooling/warming  has now almost certainly been validated. Ozone looks to be the cause, as at these levels very little apart from a extremely small amount of H20, and various Oxides of Nitrogen,  are present.

I am spending time going back over the DMI temperature record looking for similar temperature occurrences in the past.

Now we have a database of Ozone, it will be interesting to see any historical correlation.

MIA 

 

I spent a lot of time overnight thinking about the role of gasses in the atmosphere..  (following the post above from last night.

(quoted above for access).

Get ready          This is a long post, but hopefully you will find it interesting.. 

(Perhaps it is not for this thread?, but since I have developed these ideas while noticing the different way the ice has behaved this year.... here goes.)..

 

 

As a trained chemist who specialised in Organic Chemistry (the Chemistry of Carbon), I have  noticed that many 'pure' scientists (mainly such as those in physics and chemistry) -  have been absent from the climate debate.

I feel that my newly developed slightly changed views of climate (as discussed below ) are not contrary to the current theories on climate change. But simply that carbon may well be just one cog (albeit a large one) in the world of Chemistry which affects our climate. 

 

 

So here goes for a Chemists view of the atmosphere...  (Hope you find it interesting.  I have attempted to keep it simple).

The 'total' atmosphere is made up from Nitrogen (79%), Oxygen(21%). and Argon (0.9%), and many other smaller amounts of gasses such as the noble gasses Neon and Helium as well as Carbon, Hydrogen and Chlorine, and the halogens.....

In the lowest atmosphere other gasses,  (possibly human produced gasses) such as other oxides or possibly hydrides of Nitrogen, Carbon and possibly Sulphur reside, but typically (apart from the CFC's) they do not impact the upper atmosphere and stratosphere due to either their reactivity or density not allowing them to rise sufficiently.

In the upper atmosphere and the stratosphere we naturally  find trace amounts of Carbon dioxide, Water, Ozone, and small amounts of  other oxides of Nitrogen and at times Sulphur..

Under certain  other 'natural' conditions such as a volcanic outbursts (or such like) we find 'large' amounts of Sulphur (as sulphur dioxide) may enter the stratosphere, as well as H2O (vapour) and Carbon Dioxide. Iron and other metal elements are also discharged,  but will not enter the stratosphere 'permanently' as they are too heavy, and easily removed.

There have been few volcanic events recently to be large enough to have much significance.

In addition lightening is a feature which creates a pressurized and heated  'test tube' type environment which enables Oxygen (and probably Nitrogen and any sulphur) as well as the Halides (Chlorine, Bromine. etc) to 'react' and produce their various forms of their 'oxidised' compounds (because O2 is by far the most abundant), but simply in the case of Oxygen (O2) (21% of the atmosphere) it disassociates into the two Oxygen identities  with a positive charge. These are highly reactive and will immediately react with most of the nearest 'molecules' around.

This is known to be how we form Ozone (only relatively stable under  tropospheric conditions), but it is totally stable under NORMAL conditions in the stratosphere. Nitric Oxide (if you are very close to a lightening strike, I have been, it can be smelled) , and Nitrogen Dioxide and possibly some Sulphur Dioxide are also produced during lightening strikes. It is known. via the discharge, that large of amounts of potential energy (heat, light , electricity and noise) are released from the single atoms.   

Now all the above  gasses (as discussed above) obey the simple gas laws of pressure, volume and temperature. (Boyles Law).

May of the  'reactions' above  are either endothermic (take in heat) or are exothermic (give out heat).

A trained chemist (such as myself - although long ago!!), is very aware of the above thermal energy contained in both atoms and compounds. I worked in the polymerisation of formaldehyde (basic of polystyrene, and PVC) and I am fully aware  that one had to very careful when initiating something new (via catalysis) as to the exothermic nature of the reaction. Many times we had to contain a very explosive mixture due to the rapid increase of temperature, being self-spontaneously 'taking off'.   Also we are ALL aware of the effect of 'messing' around with Hydrogen, via Nuclear Fission and Fusion, but they only occur under very specific conditions, so are not a part of normal atmospheric chemistry.. (we hope!!)

People do not realise how much energy is bound up in just one of these apparently simple atoms. This is  the so-called 'potential'  energy of atoms and is made available during reaction when the bonds are 'broken',  for example in initiating 'reaction' or possibly by irradiation..

All the above gasses ( that I mention above), and there are many more minor players,    are a natural part of the earths climate's natural cycles  which over billions of years has led to the 'stability' of the earths climate. (enacted through varying weather patterns).

Now we are changing the worlds atmospheric make up, and small changes can have dramatic effects.

AGW CO2 increase has been happening slowly for perhaps 1000 years (to any extent) but more recently has increased more rapidly.  Note however that it is not at  high levels in comparison to the past when tenfold amounts are thought to have been in the atmosphere, and is not affecting (directly  - see below)  the stratosphere.. 

So, it seems as though Ozone is 'king'  of the stratosphere. Although H20 and CO2 are in very small amounts,  but are relatively unreactive or not active at the important (UV) wavelengths. 

More recently we have seen the effect on naturally occurring Ozone of adding CFC's into our atmosphere.

It is known that they react very rapidly with Ozone and that they extend into the layer that Ozone has always been 'king'.

They have been depleting supplies of Ozone (via reactivity), since the earliest was produced in the 1950's, but especially since the mid 1970s. until the banning of these substances effective the late 1990's. Apart for one or two  individual companies (mainly hidden away in China) we have stopped CFC production (or at least the release into the atmosphere).

Scientists believe that we have halted CFC production.

 

To the present situation....

It would appear that a combination of two 'recent' events -

1) a SSW in Antarctica (that has only occurred on 2 or 3 events we have witnessed) which has increased the Antarctic stratospheric temps above -80C (where Ozone can be  destroyed by our suns ionisation) ,  and 

2) the banning of CFC's - together with this year a higher number of lightening strikes (Induced by AGW?) has led to an increase of Ozone in the stratosphere

and the effect of both has led to a (maybe temporary) increase of Ozone in the stratosphere. 

This Ozone is being shunted into the Arctic by the natural action of atmospheric 'wave' breaking. There is also more Ozone, so the events are possibly stronger and more frequent  (time will tell...).

These waves can vary, but are believed to be thousands of miles in width  and several hundreds of miles of breadth,  at a maximum. They are thought to be initiated by action of the jet stream coming up against major mountain ranges such as the Himalayas, the Andes and Rockies, etc, by the pushing/thrusting into the  upper troposphere large perturbations (waves) and some of these  are strong enough to enter the stratosphere. As they travel they are thought to collect Ozone.

Also, currently we are seeing the effects of the what we call the minimum of the suns cycle. This allows more high energy radiation to enter the earths stratosphere according to solar scientists. This is known to 'excite' Ozone  across a huge range of its spectra (the whole lot nearly).  It is what normally protects us from harmful sun's rays. It is also thought to produce 'heat' as the Ozone is broken down and probably undergoes reactions with other gasses in the stratosphere, such as CFC's, any Sulphur and Nitrogen, which are both endothermic and exothermic in nature.

In addition the suddenness of the  warming will mean that the stratosphere will become unstable (due to rapid temperature differences). This will result in the initiating wave (containing the collected Ozone) having extra 'added' impetus in the  'back wave' rebound phase. It is this together with any adiabatic (caused both by temperature and pressure changes - Boyles law!!)) effects which. I believe, will  start to impact the troposphere and our weather.

However, I am happy to be corrected, as any of the above could be incorrect, but it certainly would explain many things we are seeing in our climate  today,  and gives a method by which the climate could change over time.

Changes can be explained such as why volcanic eruptions appear to reduce the earths temperature (temporarily?) as both CO2 and particularly SO2 (and other chemicals) are  known to combine with disassociated Ozone, and remove them, and  to enable Ozone to perform its normal chemical reactions.... 

It can also explain why we may get smaller changes of temperature during the suns cycles (11year?) when the IR element remains relatively unchanged, since the energy required is supplied by Ultra Violet and not in the steady  IR component energy range.

It may also well explain things like the LIA, and MWP as possible if the potential ionisation is affected by interplanetary changes are reported to be included. (a thing I have never taken seriously before), but it could give it a mechanism.

I must say , the more I think about it, the more it seems possible that it can explain and bring together many of the apparently disconnected  climate 'opinions' around the world. 

Can I add that it may well give a more tempered effect of AGW.  (not wanting to cause a debate!).

From the very recent past, it seems as though the effect of this Ozone in the stratosphere may well be to reduce the temperature at the surface, by the actions I have described in my recent posts.  

It is probably too early to be definitive on this very complex issue, but I believe it can give us a mechanism by which the earth has remained in balance for many millions of years.

These are my thoughts as a trained chemist who has also developed an interest in climatology as well as a career in computer modelling.

 

Back later with the Masie ice reports.

MIA

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

The Weather Channel Live Streaming - Weather Channel HD

WWW.LIVENEWSNOW.COM

---

Watch the latest weather updates in America and around the world. Don't miss the weather as it matters. Have the weather channel online with us!

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

Masie today is showing signs of returning to the last time the Ozone burst came through with increases in ice in areas shown by the climate  models to have extremely high anomalies and vice versa... see below.

Masie sea ice showed a very large increase of (+126K Km2). Expect this to  return extent valuations to their positions of 2 days ago after it fell back to 2nd lowest yesterday.

Of interest is that the ice gain this year since the start of October is back to the levels seen around the years around 2000.,

In the detail Masie recorded large increases in Chukchi (+51K), ESS(+4K), SOO(+3K), Bering(+8K) and Beaufort(0 and now full), despite them being under the highest temperature anomaly!...

Barents (+27K) and Greenland(+26K) both increased rapidly despite high anomalies there also (see below).

Kara (-2K) had another of its wobbles, but the Central  (+7K) area expanded with the movement south of the Atlantic Front to record its highest level so far this year.

Over in North America, Hudson(+10K) gained, but Baffin declined again (-9K).

All the above is interesting. whilst climate temperature models continue to show very high anomalies over the Arctic. and  whilst the climate temperature have been showing average anomalies of around +3.0C for the last 2 months ice has expanded at recent record rates (for the last 10 years).

 

For what is actually happening up there with  2M  temperatures, I now prefer to use actual temperatures. (rather than the modelled ones) -

 

 

The Polarstern during the recent small cyclone dropped from nearly -30C to about -15C, but it has now got back to just below -30C under the continual northerly winds. It seems to be undergoing a gradual temperature fall  in the last 2 days - 

 86.1  119.0 19-11-26 14:00 7 70 -27.0 1011.1
 86.1  119.0 19-11-26 13:00 9 70 -26.3 1011.1
 86.1  119.1 19-11-26 12:00 7 70 -26.5 1011.2
 86.1  119.2 19-11-26 11:00 7 70 -27.1 1011.9
 86.1  119.2 19-11-26 10:00 7 60 -27.8 1012.1
 86.1 119.3 19-11-26 09:00 8 70 -26.9 1012.3
 86.1 119.4 19-11-26 08:00 7 70 -26.3 1012.2
 86.1 119.5 19-11-26 06:00 8 70 -25.4 1011.8
 86.1 119.5 19-11-26 05:00 8 80 -24.1 1011.8
 86.1 119.6 19-11-26 04:00 7 80 -23.5 1011.6
 86.1 119.7 19-11-26 03:00 8 90 -22.7 1011.6
 86.1 119.7 19-11-26 02:00 8 80 -22.0 1011.6
 86.1 119.8 19-11-26 01:00 8 90 -21.7 1011.6
 86.1 119.9 19-11-26 00:00 8 90 -23.1 1011.5
 86.1 119.9 19-11-25 23:00 9 100 -23.8 1011.3
 86.1 120.0 19-11-25 22:00 8 100 -24.1 1011.2
 86.1 120.0 19-11-25 21:00 9 110 -24.2 1010.7
 86.1 120.1 19-11-25 20:00 8 110 -24.8 1010.4
 86.1 120.2 19-11-25 19:00 9 120 -23.7 1009.9
 86.1 120.2 19-11-25 18:00 9 120 -24.1 1009.4
 86.1 120.3 19-11-25 17:00 9 120 -23.7 1008.9
 86.1 120.3 19-11-25 16:00 9 120 -23.4 1008.2
 86.1 120.4 19-11-25 15:00 10 130 -23.5 1007.3
 86.1 120.4 19-11-25 14:00 10 130 -23.6 1006.7
 86.1 120.5 19-11-25 13:00 10 130 -23.6 1006.0
 86.1 120.5 19-11-25 12:00 10 130 -23.5 1005.5
 86.0 120.6 19-11-25 11:00 10 130 -23.2 1005.0
 86.0 120.6 19-11-25 10:00 11 130 -22.4 1004.4
 86.0 120.7 19-11-25 09:00 11 130 -22.2 1004.0
 86.0 120.7 19-11-25 08:00 11 130 -20.8 1003.1
 86.0 120.8 19-11-25 06:00 12 140 -18.5 1001.7
 86.0 120.9 19-11-25 05:00 12 140 -18.4 1001.0
 86.0 120.9 19-11-25 04:00 11 140 -18.2 1000.7
 86.0 120.9 19-11-25 03:00 12 140 -18.6 1000.1
 86.0 121.0 19-11-25 02:00 12 140 -18.8 999.7
 86.0 121.0 19-11-25 01:00 11 140 -19.1 999.2
 86.0 121.0 19-11-25 00:00 10 140 -19.8 998.7  

the 7th column  being the temperature data recorded by Polarstern.

 

 

Meanwhile over on Kotel''n'yy Island  a Russian base station (Junction of ESS and Laptev in the Russian Arctic) comes the following weather forecast details -

 

Wed 27

-29°

-37°

Thu 28

-31°

-32°

Fri 29

-27°

-36°

Sat 30

-34°

-36°

Sun 1

-32°

-35°

Mon 2

-32°

-33°

Tue 3

-30°

-31°

Wed 4

-29°

-32°

Thu 5

-28°

-29°

Fri 6

-26°

-28°

That didn't work too well!!, but it shows that temperatures are about to drop  well below -30C for the next 10 days.

As can be seen most of this region is still showing much above average anomalies under the exact regions showing a high ozone anomaly -

.

 

 

Climate Reanalyser SLP is also showing the same 'characteristic' of the last Ozone introduction, with a central belt of higher (or high) pressure surrounded by a string of low pressure areas, along the Siberian coastline around the North Atlantic,and back into North America.

Strange that it is so similar!!!, with a long fetch of easterly winds along the Russian coastline.

 

Will DMI confirm the rapid temperature decrease of the last 6 days, later, when it reports?

MIA

Edited November 26, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

Report on the DMI temperatures.....

 Wow,wow, wow...….

Down by a huge 2.03C since yesterday to 250.6K This is only 1.5C warmer than the lowest level reached during the last 'Ozone invasion' of the stratosphere.

 

It seems likely to go lower.....I will check the latest Ozone map charts for yesterday now...….

 

  Even more WOWS!

 This shows that the Ozone anomaly in the last 24 hours has grown even stronger in the Bering/Chukchi areas. but even more chilling is that the anomaly is  back-building  in towards Siberia. The waves controlling these developments all move from west to east, so that it looks as if the high anomaly will persist for a few more days yet.

All of which begins to strengthen (or at the very least help to confirm or deny) the position I am taking for Ozone being one of the cogs of Climate change (Global warming, etc).

KW has been showing reports of cold from  Canada, the USA, Norway, Finland and Sweden, and we had, only 3 days ago,  the reports of the record breaking lows in central Siberia, after a week of bone-chilling cold. When the reports come out at the end of the month I expect to see many more cold records beaten than warmer ones. This would be a first for many years.

I  can now safely  assume since I forecast this to happen and against the model forecasts and predictions, that the items shown by KW (and others) about the record cold temperatures (sometimes lowest ever), on all the continents of the northern hemisphere, are infact not just fluke and cannot be  discarded as 'weather'.

I will have to be patient and wait until the Ozone moves away before any long term conclusions can be drawn.

But I am sure that a period of extreme cold in the Arctic, will have impacts on the temperature of the northern hemisphere as a whole.

Other predictions I  will now make are that is that the Arctic Atlantic front will move much further south this year to the sort of positions it occupied in and around the year 2000. We might even see the Iceland ice bridge again this year.

I am not certain yet what is in store for the Pacific side. It is possible that the two sides will cancel each other out, caused by warmth in and around Alaska.

In other predictions the Mosaic project will have further major problems in crossing the Arctic and that news from the project will become less and less frequent,

 

oh yes, and above all this is the forecast  that none of this is mentioned by the IPCC in the Rel 6 debates, next month  in Madrid   

MIA

Edited November 26, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[**!!**]

I have to say this is a fascinating thread to follow and I really do enjoy giving it a read.

Just to confirm my understanding, is the ice in the Arctic seeing a good year this year in terms of reductions in recent years?

[BleakMidwinter]

37 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Report on the DMI temperatures.....

 Wow,wow, wow...….

Down by a huge 2.03C since yesterday to 250.6K This is only 1.5C warmer than the lowest level reached during the last 'Ozone invasion' of the stratosphere.

 

It seems likely to go lower.....I will check the latest Ozone map charts for yesterday now...….

 

  Even more WOWS!

 This shows that the Ozone anomaly in the last 24 hours has grown even stronger in the Bering/Chukchi areas. but even more chilling is that the anomaly is  back-building  in towards Siberia. The waves controlling these developments all move from west to east, so that it looks as if the high anomaly will persist for a few more days yet.

All of which begins to strengthen (or at the very least help to confirm or deny) the position I am taking for Ozone being one of the cogs of Climate change (Global warming, etc).

KW has been showing reports of cold from  Canada, the USA, Norway, Finland and Sweden, and we had, only 3 days ago,  the reports of the record breaking lows in central Siberia, after a week of bone-chilling cold. When the reports come out at the end of the month I expect to see many more cold records beaten than warmer ones. This would be a first for many years.

I  can now safely  assume since I forecast this to happen and against the model forecasts and predictions, that the items shown by KW (and others) about the record cold temperatures (sometimes lowest ever), on all the continents of the northern hemisphere, are infact not just fluke and cannot be  discarded as 'weather'.

I will have to be patient and wait until the Ozone moves away before any long term conclusions can be drawn.

But I am sure that a period of extreme cold in the Arctic, will have impacts on the temperature of the northern hemisphere as a whole.

Other predictions I  will now make are that is that the Arctic Atlantic front will move much further south this year to the sort of positions it occupied in and around the year 2000. We might even see the Iceland ice bridge again this year.

I am not certain yet what is in store for the Pacific side. It is possible that the two sides will cancel each other out, caused by warmth in and around Alaska.

In other predictions the Mosaic project will have further major problems in crossing the Arctic and that news from the project will become less and less frequent,

 

oh yes, and above all this is the forecast  that none of this is mentioned by the IPCC in the Rel 6 debates, next month  in Madrid   

MIA

This is all right on the edge of my comprehension but you're explaining it brilliantly, even for a non-chemist - thankyou! 

re KW's posts, unfortunately, I've had to set to 'ignore' as my RSI-wrists can't cope with scrolling through 20 or 30 Tweets in a single post  

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Apologies @BleakMidwinter it's my snow addiction

[Midlands Ice Age]

1 hour ago, **!!** said:

I have to say this is a fascinating thread to follow and I really do enjoy giving it a read.

Just to confirm my understanding, is the ice in the Arctic seeing a good year this year in terms of reductions in recent years?

!!

Thanks   - its good to know that reasonably new comers take part in the thread. Thanks for responding.

Arctic ice is currently about 4th lowest in the ice records which are kept on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum, and is a clear 4th (about to become 5th lowest) on the Masie records. There are many  different official record keepers, and most use a selection of satellites and when you add in that they all have different algorithms, they come up with different answers.

You have to choose one and stick to it.

I have chosen Masie because it is quick and easy to understand, and has a good selection of area comparative maps and a very clear picture of the Current ice in the North Pole. It takes its data from the US National Ice Centre  (US NIC), which is one of the most accurate, and is used by all ships in the major countries  in order to avoid nasty accidents. 

So its good enough for me.

It is not however recognised as the  official dataset by the Climate change scientist because it only goes back to about 2004.

The link for Masie is shown below, and it will show you a good selection of maps on extent data -

https://nsidc.org/data/masie/

However to answer your question, the answer is that the ice is very much  in 'catch up' mode.

Last year saw a continuation of the ice conditions of the previous 15 - 30 years, with slowly  reducing extent and hence volume.

This was evident in a late and slow recovery in Sept and early October of this year. This left the ice extent at its lowest level since the satellite record were started. 1979 for the oldest.

Since then, this  autumn, the ice has been recovering, and more interestingly, in different places, in comparison to the  last 15 years.

Its recovery is now fairly spectacular being amongst  the highest ice increase in the last 15 years during this period.

However, it is not this that interests me. I am more interested in the change in the atmosphere /stratosphere over the Arctic this year, and it appears to be this that is  causing more extensive cold than for many years up there.

Also, this cold appears to be being produced by a different mechanism to those of the recent past, and this mechanism, I believe, is not being picked up correctly by the satellite based forecast models. The same satellite data is used to supply data to the climate model datasets. This modelled temperature is given by satellites  which view the stratosphere top/down and have to have many calculations applied to end up with a ground level temperature.

There are only 6 actual temperature stations in the Arctic. So it is not easy to ensure that the satellite presented calculations are correct. Hence my checking of the temperature by looking at actual stations.

It looks to me as if the models are not handling correctly that Ozone in the stratosphere is in abundance this year. It is a gas which itself generates heat when it reacts with a different particles or molecules. It is

not inert and I believe that this is not recognised  and hence throws the models.

We  appear to be at the start of a new renewed different cold period in the Arctic, but this is not yet verified as it is too early in the process. Also, it is to be proved whether any effects are permanent or not, before any claims are made, but it is very interesting.....

MIA

 

Edited November 26, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[Beanz]

Is there any chance we could limit the amount of tweets in this thread, it’s becoming impossible to follow the informative messages and really slows down the loading time.  
 

cheers

[Snipper]

1 hour ago, Beanz said:

Is there any chance we could limit the amount of tweets in this thread, it’s becoming impossible to follow the informative messages and really slows down the loading time.  
 

cheers

Quite agree.  So many Tweets really spoiling an enjoyable thread.  

[Snipper]

1 hour ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

.

We  appear to be at the start of a new renewed different cold period in the Arctic, but this is not yet verified as it is too early in the process. Also, it is to be proved whether any effects are permanent or not, before any claims are made, but it is very interesting.....

MIA

 

Nice informative post to ponder. 

[Cymro]

6 hours ago, Snipper said:

Quite agree.  So many Tweets really spoiling an enjoyable thread.  

Snap...it is be oming quite a struggle finding the information

[BleakMidwinter]

7 hours ago, Beanz said:

Is there any chance we could limit the amount of tweets in this thread, it’s becoming impossible to follow the informative messages and really slows down the loading time.  
 

cheers

You can click on a message and set that user to "ignore posts" - it means you miss anything of interest, but it does mean you can skip the tweets...