Snow & Ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019/20

[throwoff]

Definite growth continuing. 

If we compare now -

To 2010 

The way the ice has pushed south is very similar, and in fact snow itself has breached much further south overall. Though we are lacking the full Scandi cover we had then.

 

Comparing to 18' 

While the snow looks amazing moving into Easter Europe (in fact we had some falling flakes here on this date in 2018) The ice looks much poorer. 

 

[Northwest NI]

Does Hudson Bay not fully freeze over ever?

I thought it did.

[mountain shadow]

25 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:

Does Hudson Bay not fully freeze over ever?

I thought it did.

Yes, it does. 

[Northwest NI]

24 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Yes, it does. 

It just that on none of the graphics in the last post was it frozen. 

[Norrance]

8 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:

It just that on none of the graphics in the last post was it frozen. 

Those images are from the 20th November in different years, well before it freezes over completely.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Re Hudson bay

Western Hudson Bay freeze-up earlier than average for 1980s for the third year in a row | Watts Up With That?

WATTSUPWITHTHAT.COM

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Reposted from Polar Bear Science Posted on November 11, 2019 | This is the third year in a row that freeze-up of Western Hudson Bay (WH)...

Military Emergencies Unit called out as heavy snowfall isolates...

WWW.SOTT.NET

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Villages isolated in the province of León as power cuts affect residents in rural areas The cold front which swept across the Iberian...

 

[Northwest NI]

1 hour ago, Norrance said:

Those images are from the 20th November in different years, well before it freezes over completely.

I see what you mean. Hudson Bay will freeze over later in the season.

[Aleman]

Hudson Bay ice cover now

https://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/CVCHDCTHB/20191118180000_CVCHDCTHB_0010859237.pdf

Average for season to date

https://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/CVCHACTHB/20191118180000_CVCHACTHB_0010859227.pdf

Comparison to average week by week shows would normally be fully frozen in about a month

https://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/CVCSWCTHB/20191118180000_CVCSWCTHB_0010859241.pdf

(Note - this measure of Hudson Bay ice includes Hudson and Baffin Straits to the North. Ice there is well down causing the late start but I think Hudson Bay itself has started freezing up close to average.)

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

Masie update for today.

A further century well above average gain  (+105K Km2).

This despite another large drop in Kara(-38K) following -41K four days ago, but large increases in between..

The Atlantic front improved back to the values of 4 days ago with gains of Barents(+23K), Greenland(+14K) and Central(+7K).

Elsewhere good gains in Baffiin(+29K), and Hudson (+28K) making up for any slower icing in recent days.

Chukchi again was the stand out winner with (+40K), and the SOO added (+3K). 

No real change elsewhere.

 I see a discussion has taken place on the Hudson ice situation today, a similar situation also exists in the Baring (losing -7K today)..

But overall it is ahead of last year, and is about on average for the last 10years.

Freeze start date is assumed to be 50K Km2.

Indeed  it is the earliest since 2012

MIA

[Midlands Ice Age]

Update on the latest Ozone picture...

Guns loaded and in position A1, as the next tropospheric planetary waves of Ozone enter the atmosphere above the basin  -

 

 

 

Fire...

Let see what happens over the next few days.

MIA

Edited November 21, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

Well, well...

DMI  shows a temperature drop of 2.05C on the first day of increased Ozone..

It MUST be coincidence.!!!   ?????????

The situation is that the ECM had not predicted a fall for today of anything like this size (0.3C).

IF this continues then there could be something in it.!!!!!

MIA 

[ALL ABOARD]

1 minute ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Well, well...

DMI  shows a temperature drop of 2.05C on the first day of increased Ozone..

It MUST be coincidence.!!!   ?????????

The situation is that the ECM had not predicted a fall for today of anything like this size (0.3C).

IF this continues then there could be something in it.!!!!!

MIA 

Sorry Mia what exactly are we looking for?

Trying to learn a little bit as I also believe that an earth 4.5 billion years old dosent have its own way of doing things regardless who's around at the time. 

[Midlands Ice Age]

28 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

the Sorry Mia what exactly are we looking for?

Trying to learn a little bit as I also believe that an earth 4.5 billion years old dosent have its own way of doing things regardless who's around at the time. 

AA...

Please read back over the last 4-6 days of this blog for my interest in Ozone....

I had basically noted that the large drop in DMI temps of 2 weeks ago (see the graph above) and the  resultant rise afterwards,  was at the same time as a large increase and then decrease in Stratospheric Ozone over the  eastern North pole.  (Chukchi, Bering, etc).

This was accompanied by a rapid increase in ice in areas which had suffered declines over the last 40years.

After the rise in Ozone had subsided the temperature rose  back to the levels previous experienced, and the unusual ice growth has faded away.

Next.. I had noticed a couple of days ago that another wave of Ozone was about to hit the area today.

It seems to have caused a reduction in temperatures of the DMI of about 2.05C, when hardly change had been predicted by forecasts.

Is this coincidence?              What is the cause?????

We will have to wait a few days to find out if this is a meaningful observation, and what may have caused the effects..!! 

MIA

Edited November 21, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[ArHu3]

7 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

AA...

Please read back over the last 4-6 days of this blog for my interest in Ozone....

I had basically noted that the large drop in DMI temps of 2 weeks ago (see the graph above) and the  resultant rise afterwards,  was at the same time as a large increase and then decrease in Stratospheric Ozone over the  eastern North pole.  (Chukchi, Bering, etc).

This was accompanied by a rapid increase in ice in areas which had suffered declines over the last 40years.

After the rise in Ozone had subsided the temperature rose  back to the levels previous experienced, and the unusual ice growth has faded away.

Next.. I had noticed a couple of days ago that another wave of Ozone was about to hit the area today.

It seems to have caused a reduction in temperatures of the DMI of about 2.05C, when hardly change had been predicted by forecasts.

Is this coincidence?              What is the cause?????

We will have to wait a few days to find out if this is a meaningful observation, and what may have caused the effects..!! 

MIA

That's part of professor Hendrik Svensmark's theory, right? Increased cosmic rays during solar minimums hitting ozone and certain other particles that aid in the formation of clouds 

 

Henrik Svensmark - Wikipedia

EN.M.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

4 hours ago, ArHu3 said:

That's part of professor Hendrik Svensmark's theory, right? Increased cosmic rays during solar minimums hitting ozone and certain other particles that aid in the formation of clouds 

 

Henrik Svensmark - Wikipedia

EN.M.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

 

ArHu3...

I have only vaguely heard about his theory.

I will read up on it.

I have just been watching the data evolve.

My concern was/is  that ice growth does not seem to be supported by the temperatures as shown on DMI and Climate Reanalyser.  This discrepancy has also been shown by the Mosaic project (10days ago) where the temperatures of about -25C were recorded and yet CR was about 10 -15C above normal in the area. Also the temperatures on Kotelny Island have remined consistently low, confirming the Mosaic data.                     

Link attached below...

https://www.bing.com/search?q=Kotelny+Russia+weather+&qs=n&form=QBRE&sp=-1&pq=kotelny+russia+weather+&sc=0-23&sk=&cvid=AFF48A36B7444982965C601ABC9BF464

 The latest temperature I saw yesterday from Mosaic  was also about -18C and I have shown the latest CR below, for comparison, and also the data for the month of October 2019, where when the Ozone came over the anomaly temperatures were recorded as rising.

See the Arctic temperature on the right. to follow the rise.....

Edit - you will have to access the CR Reanalysis for Oct 2019 section to scan all the days..  

 

              and todays is      

 

So my concern is that the 2M temps being shown by model satellite data are  not at the moment (apparently) being shown on the ground as evidence from ice growth (though not definitive - could be wind based) and also this year by some small islands of the Russian coastline as well as the Mosaic project.

This has only happened when Ozone has been centred on the area.

So my observation is possibly that this Ozone (in the stratosphere - where remember it looks as though it is expanding and growing this year for the first time since satellite  temperatures were instigated), is actually giving false 2M temperatures.

The effect was documented and explained by Roy Spencer in his analysis of the Antarctic in September UAH review, where the temperature calculations were affected by 'heat in the upper troposphere/ lower stratosphere' and were unexpectedly recorded as being very high...

So, yes it is quite possible that some form of  stratospheric  'cloud affect' (in which the models are known to be weak and are heavily parameterised) could be causing the problems.

A 'mechanism' for any differences has not yet been suggested.

The impact - redistribution of ice growth, and a faster rate of growth  in different areas (compared to many recent years) appears to be the net result.

As I have been at pains to stress this is only very early in the event. This new ozone wave outbreak could well prove/mean that the above is all complete chance, and can be written off.   We will see.....  

MIA 

Edited November 22, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

Todays US NIC..

 Snow coverage  relatively unchanged

Ice has continued to show yesterdays 'changed/new'  (see above) progress, with the Atlantic front progressing again, but now with reduced growth in the eastern Arctic sea areas.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

PHOTOS: Storms bring rain, hail and snow to Arizona

WWW.ABC15.COM

---

 

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

Masie today..

A total gain of just 13K Km2. Below average for the first time for a month.

As suggested  the eastern recent freeze up came to a virtual halt, with ESS (0), Beaufort(0), and Chukchi with a pull back(-21K). Bering also was unchanged.

On the other hand the Atlantic front (again as was suggested) burst back into ice growth (again), with Barents(+22K), Greenland(+19K), Central(+3K),  whilst Kara(-7K, growing in the outer edge, but reducing on the inner (inside NZ)),              and lastly Baffin(+8K).

The Atlantic front has now exceeded its icing extent compared to a week ago when it started the pull back.

Hudson lost(-11K), as the severe cold moved away.

 

On another note there are reports today of yet more (could be major this time) problems with the Mosaic Ice Project.

People on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum (who have the best analysis of the output) are reporting that the ice flow they are attached to, is in real danger of breaking up due to the unstable ice conditions. Apparently many ice leads have opened up in the immediate area and even the Polarstern is witnessing moving ice. They are suggesting that many experiments may have to be abandoned. Apparently the storms of the last 3 or 4 days (mini cyclones, which passed overhead) and which have now passed by, have left the ice in a very disturbed state. They are having problems getting to their equipment in the now polar night, and they are seeing almost daily many polar bears  - which  brings all their activity to a standstill on the icefloes.

Also temperatures (which have now dropped to -30C at times) are causing problems to some of the  electricity generators out on the ice which are supporting many  of the experiments (up to a range of about 10miles). Their use of  helicopters to fix them is also having problems due to the movements of the ice making locating of the position of their equipment difficult in the snowy gloom of the Arctic night.  Beacons (wireless?) being used to locate them have also shut down.

The exhaust pipes of the generators out on the ice  (suggests diesel to me) are freezing up and causing  'cutout' of the generators. Many people in this country witnessed this situation, I am told, when the Beast from the East visited us last year.     

They may have to consider detaching from their chosen ice island.

There is the suggestion that the ice conditions are worsening. We will not now know until tomorrow.

 Let us hope that everyone remains safe.

Not a good report, I am afraid....

I have not yet heard what is happening to their resupply ship. Could it be that some of the young scientists decide to call it a day, when it arrives? 

 MIA 

 

Edited November 22, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[Aleman]

2 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

PHOTOS: Storms bring rain, hail and snow to Arizona

WWW.ABC15.COM

---

 

 

Hudson Bay had more ice than that:

https://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/WIS54CT/20191118180000_WIS54CT_0010859138.pdf

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

More data for the grindstone..

Todays  DMI Arctic graphic (just released) showed (for yesterday) that whilst the ice extent increase just about stalled the temperature as recorded by DMI fell rapidly again. The decrease is 1.8C, slightly less than yesterdays report,  but nevertheless a large fall.

Again, we are seeing a disconnect between the temperatures being recorded by the models and reality.

A quick check on the Ozone for yesterday..

The latest Ozone wave looks to be rapidly engulfing the same areas as last time. 

Will we get rapid 'icing' in the west again? 

It seems as though the concentration of Ozone over the Bering is increasing and the temperatures are undergoing a non forecast rapid drop in the Arctic. Forecasts suggest that this wave of Ozone will stay around into a second week. 

It is looking exactly like 2 weeks ago all over again, but longer lasting. So probably 'chance' can be ruled out.

Svensmark's theory looks to be the most likely..... but also are the temperature calculations performed by the Forecast models OK?

Back to reading and watching the data evolve.

MIA 

 

Edited November 22, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

Morning all with this mornings of snow and ice and other general weather comments....

Snow little changed in Europe, but a slight southwards filling in in Asia. More snow developing around the Caspian Sea.

Snow is melting somewhat now across  the USA as the cold weather relaxes somewhat.

Ice has behaved very much as I forecast, with more ice increases  all along the Atlantic front (Inc Kara today),and very slight gains/losses in the Bering sectors -

 

I would also like to briefly mention that an extremely interesting period is coming up for us to watch unfold -

Forecasts for -

1) Mosaic Project - a new small cyclone is developing off Greenland and is expected to head  towards the Polarstern before decaying in Kara. 

2)Massive developments in the Mediterranean, and will dump as much as 200 - 500 mms of rain over North East Italy and SE France with resultant high level of floods.. You've guessed it - 100 - 200 cms  of snow over the NW Alps is expected. Fantastic start for any skiers this season. So KW will have yet more deep snow photos.

3) After the current Ozone warming completes over the pole, then a massive SSW is forecast to develop over in Siberia which is probably going to smash what little is left of the Polar Vortex (apparently there is still one higher up in the troposphere/lower statrosphere).

I am not sure of the difference between an SSW and an Ozone induced warming in terms of transports, but it looks like more warming. Could the increases of Ozone(normally responsible for the heating of the stratosphere in situ) be also the cause of an SSW which is believed to also be caused by wave breaking? 

Most of the above can be seen in the following links...  (thanks to the ASIF)

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=2906.0;attach=138213

and 

https://www.severe-weather.eu/mcd/extreme-rainfall-flooding-western-alps-mk/

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/stratosphere-watch-update-siberia-warming-powerful-fa/

I can see I have a lot more watching and reading to do!!

MIA

Edited November 23, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

Masie out early  ….

Wow a massive 145K Km2 increase with all sea areas undergoing some ice freeze. Total now over 10,000K Km2.(more details to follow).

The Atlantic front soared, with Kara(+44K), Barents(+12K) and Greenland(+3K) all increasing with the northerly winds returning.  Central (+1K)  also benefitted with the ice movement back towards Svalbard.

North America also peaked  with Baffin(+33K), and Hudson(+29K) making large progress.

In the east,  Bering(+9K) and SOO(+5k) had moderate increases, whilst Beaufort(+5K), Chukchi(+4K) and ESS(+8K) all consolidated. 

The ice has  taken 11 days to get from 9,000K Km2 to 10,000K Km2. This is the longest since 2014 took the same amount of time.    2016 took just 8 days, and all other dates in between took 10 days. This reflects the moderation in ice growth that has dominated as the ice has been pushed back towards the Pacific over the last few days.

It now looks as if we could be entering a period (2 to 3 days) of good ice growth with Northerly winds dominating in both the western sectors (Atlantic front) and also into the Bering Strait.

MIA  

 

Edited November 23, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

Follow on from the above post...

According to ASIF, 2019 is now in fourth lowest position in the last few years.

      and      

   

However, despite the current reasonable extent growth, Masie volumes are still very low.

  

I feel it worthwhile explaining that from the 1st Oct Masie had an 'upgrade', which also changed their data source and it took the data for thickness from the NICC sources instead of using their own algorithms.

However, there is no doubt that other sources (PIOMAS, etc) are showing the very low ice position (though not quite so low in the table as Masie). 

The dire position of the ice is due to the lack of thickness in and around the Pole, Elsmere Island and Greenland this year. This lack of ice stems from the situation of the ice at the end of last year, when there was a lack of ice in the outer Laptev and ESS, etc. During the summer this ice is moved to the central pack.

I have shown the reference (link) to Masie volume so that you can follow the movements of the ice (use the -365 button and then scroll forward)......

DMI Modelled ice thickness

OCEAN.DMI.DK

 

There is some reason to be optimistic about volume, even looking at the Masie data,  with the rapid  thickening of the ice this year around Svalbard, Jan Mayen and to the west of Wrangle Island.

Also the finger of thicker ice emerging from Beaufort is showing signs of wanting to move westward into Bering, as indeed it did last year.

This where the future central ice is manufactured, as it undergoes the action of the Beaufort and Polar gyres.

MIA

Edited November 23, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

@Midlands Ice Age 

 

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

Thanks KW..

 Some of the reports are quite incredible... Around 150 inches in Wisconsin already????

5 days below -40 degrees and now dropping below -50C is quite something these days.

Also with a huge fall in the Alps currently taking place.

However I think the 'Polar  Hole' article is a bit melodramatic.

There is no doubt that  the levels are 'low', but this is what happens when the 'wave flux' gets going. They have 'cutoff' the real news - the huge amount of Ozone over the Artic/Pacific side. The values they show are low in comparison,  and also are nothing in comparison with what happens frequently over the Antarctic. Here the levels really do drop to low levels and not just the 30 - 50% reduction shown/quoted  in the article. The Antarctic holes reflect low levels in the earth's atmosphere not just a local affect caused by 'waves'.

MIA

Edited November 23, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age