Snow & Ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019/20

[Midlands Ice Age]

Can I just post a Met Office chart of the CET since 1910 to counter balance some of the recent postings.

When (if) this chart starts to show a downward trend then I will begin to look in more detail at what the data is telling us.

The last 2 months of weather  need to progress to next spring at least before we should start to believe that this is a purely natural phenominum.

My mind is still open as to what could be causing these changes.

The MO chart shows a natural variation in CET temperatures (I feel it is representative of the global climate), but with a slow upward trend. It needs to turn downwards before anyone can accept that changes are occurring. 

It is an actual temperature graph of the 'mean'  CET, rather than an anomaly.  

Meanwhile can we now get back to simply reporting the data

MIA

Edited November 15, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[jonboy]

22 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

But there's a wooly mammoth in the room: your personal beliefs are a zillion miles away from being backed-up by a substantial body of evidential science...?

Bugger! I should have started this post with: 'What those who've studied neither astrophysics nor solar physics, as an undergraduate, need to understand is...'

Don't worry Ed scientific understanding will catch up and then who will be wholly mammoth/dino

[Midlands Ice Age]

Masie today has just posted an average increase of just 55K Km2.

It is lower due to a very large 'suggested' drop in the ESS(-32K) -  which I personally cannot see!

However as 'called'  earlier there were large gains in Chukchi(+51K) and Beaufort(+11K), Chukchi in particular (If weather conditions remain the same) could undergo a partial flash freeze. There is little left to freeze in Beaufort now.

Arthur -   it looks as if Chukchi is ready to freeze now without any lower temperatures, although it may help the Bering Straits to freeze more quickly. 

Elsewhere Kara(+22K) is filling its hole in front of NZ, and Greenland(+4K) and Baffin(+9K), continued with their in situ freezing.

Barents as suggested above dropped -11K, but Hudson showed a gain of +4K. No changes in the smaller sea areas. 

If I have time later, I will do a summary of the status of all sea areas at this point..

MIA

Edited November 15, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

5 hours ago, Catacol said:

To be fair that's quite impressive. Top 5 from 52 perhaps suggests more than an eye brow raising moment. Which years sit in the top 4? Any others from the "modern" era?

Hi Catacol.

The data is provided in the link in my original post  -

https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/files/moncov.nhland.txt

The up to date graphic is as follows

 

 

However, I have looked into the data and provide the following info going back to the earliest date of 1966 -  

1976                             Oct      25.72K Km2                                  Nov                    34.64K

2002                                         23.34K Km2                                  Nov                    35.60K

2014                                         22.87K Km2                                  Nov                    36.56K

2016                                         22.95K Km2                                  Nov                    36,92K

2019                                         22.24KKm2                                   Nov  

From the above it can be seen a decreasing trend since 1976 in the highest Oct snow figures, but an increasing trend in the Nov series for those same years. This Nov will be interesting?.

I have also provided the annual anomaly  graph for reference -    

       

 

MIA                             

 

Edited November 15, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[Mark Parsons]

On ‎14‎/‎11‎/‎2019 at 09:27, throwoff said:

Both snow and ice pushing much deeper south than this point last year.

2018 -

2019 - 

Again we are still looking closer to 2010, in fact snow is more wholesale.

 

 

I am starting to feel quite positive about this winter.

 

On ‎14‎/‎11‎/‎2019 at 09:27, throwoff said:

Both snow and ice pushing much deeper south than this point last year.

2018 -

2019 - 

Again we are still looking closer to 2010, in fact snow is more wholesale.

 

 

I am starting to feel quite positive about this winter.

I'm the camp that believes the increased snow cover is a net result of GW. Warmer arctic/ more moisture/ more snow.

 

[Interitus]

Today - Anchorage, Alaska - November mean temperature -5°C, average monthly snowfall 13 inches

[Midlands Ice Age]

31 minutes ago, Interitus said:

Today - Anchorage, Alaska - November mean temperature -5°C, average monthly snowfall 13 inches

At least it confirms the Rutgers snow map.

The west coast of the USA has escaped the vicious cold now enveloping the rest of the continent.

The snow  chart above I have just posted confirms it.

Just checked the forecast for Anchorage and it is due to start snowing in the next hour!

Also just checked the weather (and forecast) for Barrow... and it looks as if it is only temporarily milder in Alaska.

 Its  currently a very mild -7C.            Its going down to -20 to -30C for mid next week with a brisk N  east wind.

I suspect that the ice will be there by next week.

I guess that will cool the temps down in Alaska …. not sure about the snowfall.

MIA

[Interitus]

17 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Also just checked the weather (and forecast) for Barrow... and it looks as if it is only temporarily milder in Alaska.

 Its  currently a very mild -7C.            Its going down to -20 to -30C for mid next week with a brisk N  east wind.

It's been 'temporarily' mild in Barrow for at least a year lol

[Winter wonder]

I am in the camp this is caused by Solar cycles and other natural cycles.  The increased cloud cover is a symptom caused by increasing cosmic rays in which Henrick Svensmark work  has shed much light..  In a cumulatively warming atmosphere there should be ever less cold air available to start producing increasing amounts of snow.

[ArHu3]

1 hour ago, Interitus said:

It's been 'temporarily' mild in Barrow for at least a year lol

A year is less than a pea's fart in geological time though 

[Midlands Ice Age]

As promised earlier I would like to show the current status of the various areas in terms of their total possible ice extent.

Area        Approx.Max Extent                             Current Extent                           Comments

                  K Km2                                                K KM2

Beaufort   1069                                                   1048                                       Full

Chukchi    966                                                     329                                        Currently Freezing

ESS          1087                                                   1069                                      Full

Laptev       897                                                     897                                        Full      

Kara         933                                                      831                                        Rapidly Filling

Barents     507+                                                   231                                         Filling

Greenland 608+                                                   487                                         Filling

Baffin        1385+                                                 293                                         Currently Freezing

CAA           852                                                    849                                          Full     

Hudson     1257                                                   127                                          Just starting refreeze

Central      3245                                                  3228                                         Full

Bering        889                                                    14                                           Just starting refreeze

Baltic          200+                                                  4                                            Just starting refreeze

SOO           877+                                                  5                                           Just starting refreeze

+ indicates an estimated realistic maximum as they are actually larger.

Other areas not presented Yellow Sea, and Cooke Inlet

Hope you find the above useful in terms of the  current and future of the 2019 refreeze.

 

More info from Masie -

Current extent        9,400K Km2

Approx left to refreeze 4,600K Km2  (from above)

 

MIA   

Edited November 15, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Aleman]

23 hours ago, Catacol said:

To be fair that's quite impressive. Top 5 from 52 perhaps suggests more than an eye brow raising moment. Which years sit in the top 4? Any others from the "modern" era?

GMASI looks to have run at 4th or 5th over October. It looks to be running 1st or 2nd in November so far. The snow water equivalent in the top image from the Finnish Met has it running around a whopping 50% above normal.

GCW Trackers

GLOBALCRYOSPHEREWATCH.ORG

 

[Catacol]

2 minutes ago, Aleman said:

GMASI looks to have run at 4th or 5th over October. It looks to be running 1st or 2nd in November so far. The snow water equivalent in the top image from the Finnish Met has it running around a whopping 50% above normal.

GCW Trackers

GLOBALCRYOSPHEREWATCH.ORG

 

Noteworthy again. Hmmm. One to watch - thanks for that link. Interesting times.

[Midlands Ice Age]

 

Todays US nic for snow and ice

.

Snow not much change hemispheric ally, but  on  a local basis France and Spain or showing quite large increases today,  

Also that Alaska has 'filled in' again.

There are large changes in the ice redistribution.

Basically all the 'eastern' areas have dropped (Kara, ESS) whilst the 'western'  ones are continuing to increase. 

This change has been brought about by a low pressure having developed right between the pole and Greenland. forcing westerly winds into the Russian Coasts -

 

This is a total change from the last month or so, and it also explains why the central Arctic has warmed. Is this the start of Vortex formation? or will it be crushed.

Back later with the ice figures, to see the impact on the ice.

MIA

 

Edited November 16, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[Snow phall]

MIA,can you tell me what the temperatures were for Barrow,Alaska in the 1970's?

I can't find any charts,but it looks like they experienced a run of high temps for a number of years.When this was happening,what was the weather like for europe and Russia?Any correlation to what is happening now? 

Edited November 16, 2019 by Snow phall

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[knocker]

On 15/11/2019 at 14:16, SteveB said:

Totally and wholeheartedly agree with this. What has happened this year in the southern hemisphere winter and Spring, with Australia and New Zealand having there snowiest springs for over 40yrs, and parts of South American, especially Chile also having colder than average springs. It's now the Northern hemisphere experiencing cold and snowy starts to Autumn/Winter. It certainly should start raising some eyebrows, with regards to which way temperatures are heading over the coming years! 

Interesting times indeed. 

Indeed

Courtesy of

@NOAANCEIclimate

GHCN-M data, here are the locations worldwide with record-breaking monthly temperatures in October. North America had a monopoly on cold: every one of the cold records was in the U.S. or Canada.

[Midlands Ice Age]

Todays Masie Report..

Gain of a moderate 52k KM2 in total. 

As suggested Beaufort(+11K) and Chukchi(+26K) were the main gainers as the ice was pushed towards the Bering Sea by the newly formed depression.

Losses of -27K Km2 in Kara as a further small depression formed directly over NZ and pushed the ice back north, and ESS(-10K KM2).

Gains in Barents(+27K),Greenland(+5K) and Hudson(+21K) made up the remainder of today's gain.  

In the perimeter sea areas the SOO doubled to 8K (+4K).

Interesting to see where  we move from here.

MIA 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Heavy snow snarls traffic, shuts schools in Iran capital

WWW.MSN.COM

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Heavy snowfall blanketed the streets of north Tehran on Saturday, causing traffic chaos and forcing the closure of schools, authorities in...

 

[The Eagle]

Snowline at around 900 - 1,000 meters ASL in southwest corner of Ireland

 

 

 

 

 

Edited November 16, 2019 by The Eagle

[Midlands Ice Age]

US nic today...

Snow increases generally, with  losses in France, but snow showing now on the Atlas in North Africa.

Alaska is now finally snow covered, in the last 2 days.

Sea ice looks a repeat of yesterday with a large drop in Kara, driven by the new minor low formation over the top of it, however there were general though smaller gains everywhere else, as the ice front is driven towards Being.

News from the Mosaic project is that they are in a fierce storm with temps of -6 to -8C and  50Kmoh westerly winds, which is driving them rapidly eastwards. This is the wrong direction for them as they hoped to be able to measure conditions in the Fram strait.

In addition, apparently, the ice has become very unstable with much movement and large cracks( leads) endangering the major ice flow that they are using for their multiple experiments.. It must be tough up there at the moment, for the young scientists on board.  The Arctic can be a very dangerous place, with ice movement and gale force winds and drifting snow.

MIA

 

 

 

Edited November 17, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[Aleman]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

A foot of snow blankets Tehran, Iran in rare event for time of...

WWW.SOTT.NET

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Heavy snowfall has caught residents of the Iranian capital Tehran off guard, bringing the city to a standstill and closing schools in...

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

Maisie Report

Another modest increase (this time of 55K Km2) has been recorded, mainly by virtue of a Kara(-41K) drop.

This was  part of a push back in the Atlantic front, which also saw drops of Barents(-2K) , Greenland(-2K) and Central (around Svalbard) which dropped by -7K, caused by the switch to westerly winds..

Elsewhere the Pacific front was steadily being dispatched back to where it belongs with Beaufort(+6K) and Chukchi(+27K), and even the ESS joined in today with (+13K), Baffin added another (+13K), and Hudson Bay 'burst through' with (+38K). All the western coast is  now iced over in Hudson and it looks like it will maintain a high rate of freeze now.

The minor areas all made steady gains with Baring(+5K), Baltic(+2K) and SOO(+2K).

With regard to Hudson this is the 3rd consecutive year that the refreeze has started earlier than the seasonal norms (though not as early as last year), and is exemplified by all the polar bears moving back onto the ice. Apparently there is a 'bear count' of these animals,  held in Churchill,  and the locals use this to determine the start of winter (when the mother bears take their cubs onto the ice). 

Also,  in N America the refreeze has started early in the Great Lakes, with the northern lakes of Lake Superior, Lake Michigan and Lake Huron all icing on the northern shores. Temperatures are forecast to remain low all week here - so it likely that the ice will continue to grow.

A weather forecasting service in the USA has just reported that everyone of the North American continent's states  (except Florida) now has warmings of ice or snow. Apparently the earliest that this has ever happened.

So as KW has been reporting, the cold in N America is (in addition to be becoming some of the coldest ever recorded),  is now extending its grip to cover the whole continent.

MIA 

 

Edited November 17, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age