Snow & Ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019/20

[Big Dave]

3 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Continuing with  the above …

I have just realised that  the whole area from Laptev to the Bering Straits and into the Central and Chukchi is, at the moment, under a huge positive temperature anomaly...

See CR below -

 

According to me that is more than a +20degrees anomaly.

I have my doubts that it is correct.

Particularly as most of  ESS and Central and Laptev are ice covered and we have seen temperatures are around -20C as recorded at the station on the border of Laptev and ESS.  

Now this gets more and more 'weird'.

Makes me even more suspicious that the Ozone patches may have something to do with this.

I am double checking the ozone content of the atmosphere in these regions.!!!

Back from checking...……..

 

 The above is for 3/11/19 

The one above is for 7/11/19, the latest.

As can be seen Siberia and the eastern Arctic basin  has had a large positive Ozone anomaly, and from my previous postings this has lasted for the last 2 weeks or more.  All this time this area has been shown to have recorded large positive  2M temperature anomalies, according to CR  (which uses the GFS data)..

I have read Blessed  Weather's link to the subject of Ozone, I now need to look at some other papers, with more up to date data...

It could be a general increase in temperatures caused by the latent heat of fusion of ice being released on freezing (the opposite of the way that 2M temps are held down to around freezing as the ice melts).. That was the conclusion of the ASIForum I quoted above.

But we already know that Laptev/ESS is recording -20C on the ground in the area, and the whole area has been 'iced' for about 10 days now,  so I think that is unlikely.

MIA 

Fascinating, appreciate you sharing. 

[ArHu3]

5 hours ago, ArHu3 said:

Big gains in Baffin it seems and also Beaufort and Chucksi so it seems. When is masie updated? 

 

DMI Satellite SST analysis

OCEAN.DMI.DK

 

masie is out and it shows a slight decrease in Baffin/Bay of St Lawrence, that's odd because DMI shows quite an increase there

 

edit: seems to be an artifact of the lower dmi maps, chunks that broke up showed up much bigger

Edited November 8, 2019 by ArHu3

[Midlands Ice Age]

4 hours ago, Big Dave said:

Fascinating, appreciate you sharing. 

I could be totally wrong!!! Probably...

However ..

More information this afternoon from the MOSAIC project, which has trapped an ice breaker 'Polarstern' (German built)  in the western Laptev to attach it to the ice and is leaving it to drift with the ice across the pole, to hopefully sail out next year, with the climate scientists still on board. They have launched about 100 buoys and they are sending out information as they go along.

After an  informative first 2 weeks with sending the weather data (SST, dewpoint, air temp, sea temp, etc) it has gone fairly quiet since the main freeze started.. However, yesterday the ship itself issued a weather report. It showed the temperature at -27C, and it had oscillated around -22 to -29C for the last 7 days, with an occasional snowfall.

More  proof that low temperatures  are ruling the roost this year, and that the models are struggling  with their continuation of a (and increasingly) warm outlook. 

Onto todays Masie...

A well above average gain again of +160K KM2.  Double the normal for this time of year.  It has now moved into 3rd lowest position. Jaxa has still not updated, but NSIDC have and extent is still second, but area is now 3rd lowest..  The 'climb back' continues.

Todays Masie showed widespread gains with only Baffin (-9K, a correction after a big increase yesterday) and Central (-2K, still reducing slightly as the ice front drifts northward around Svalbard) to dent a perfect day. 

Barents gained (+23K) as the ice dipped southwards towards the Norwegian coastline(!?),  Kara(+34K).also  set sail for Murmansk!  On the 'western' front there were big gains for Beaufort(+47K) and Chukchi(+14K). (Despite all the extreme heat shown on the weather models). 

The most improved area however was Hudson (+27K),which tripled the amount of ice and I look  for big increases in the next few days. ESS (+1K) is slowly completing its freeze up to the Bering Straits.

The Bering Sea looks worth a mention  now. The bays and inlets on both sides of the straits are now 'iced'. The water must be cooling quite quickly now for this to happen. The ice is also pushing  out  into the Pacific side inlets.

It is  looking more and more as if the periphery and western sea areas will take up the running now that the 'east' is filling up.

MIA 

Edited November 8, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

This mornings US NIC...

No real change to the snow lines.

Sea ice showing moderate gains in most areas, but a slight reduction in eastern Russia.

Looks like we are now back to normal sea ice growth.

MIA

Edited November 9, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Next week's Arctic blast will be so cold, forecasters expect it to break 170 records across US

AMP.USATODAY.COM

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

 

Fantastic post KW showing the early snowfalls in the UK. Hopefully it will still be there and show up tomorrow  on the early maps.

Masie update...

No surprises with a 59K KM2 increase in total ice increase (bang on average).

Chukchi and the ESS subsided by (-7K) and (-12K) and Bering dropped by (-3K).

All other areas gained with Beaufort (+18K), Kara(18K) and Barents(+12K) as the ice growth continued to push westwards. (clockwise!)

Baffin(+18K)  and the CAA(+5K) are now icing over, and this is now impacting Hudson(+4K) as the bitter cold over North America sets in for the week ahead.

 

More generally Jaxa joined all the other major  monitoring centres with 2019 now moving into 3rd lowest position.

A period of consolidation can now be expected, with gains in the US segment, lasting until the outer/peripheral areas start to freeze over.

MIA

 

 

  

Edited November 9, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

…... and straight on to todays US NIC  (out early tonight)

Snow cover quite good (with gains) over the alps, pyrenes and Scottish hills, No real change elsewhere.

Ice has seen losses in the ESS, but appears to have gained in Kara, Hudson, Baffin and Beaufort.

Other areas are fairly neutral today. Looks like another fairly average ice freeze day!

MIA

   

Edited November 9, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[Aleman]

Can Northern Hemisphere snow extent beat the record this year?

Rutgers show 14 of the last 17 winters were above average and that includes 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th highest.

Rutgers University Climate Lab :: Global Snow Lab

CLIMATE.RUTGERS.EDU

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Rutgers University Global Snow Lab

GMASI has us tracking equal with the highest since 2006

GCW Trackers

GLOBALCRYOSPHEREWATCH.ORG

That must put us 2nd equal and not so far off Rutgers high of 77-78? (I remember that one. Big drifts caused a post office van to be abandoned on our road until they managed to reopen it after a full week.)

Anybody got a source that can tie this together in one graph - a seasonal comparison going back 50 years?

[Midlands Ice Age]

Nice pick up there Aleman..

I  found  this old reference if it helps-

https://climate.rutgers.edu/stateclim_v1/robinson_pubs/refereed/Robinson_Dewey_and_Heim_1993.pdf 

 

Over on the ASIF they have noticed that the snow cover has increased as the  sea ice has decreased over the last 15years.

It is   a feedback feature that   the atmosphere will  be able to hold more water. Hence more snowfall.

 

Masie today was much as expected though at +86K Km2, possibly more above average than I expected. 

The really good news today is that the Baltic has increased rapidly after its near extinction in the last 3 days.

Dare I suggest that it may have found its balls again?

 

Elsewhere Chukchi (-23K), ESS(-5K) and Bering(3K) all lost out to the latest vigorous intrusion from the Pacific which pushed the ice edge backwards towards the central pack, possibly causing some compression (thickening?) in the central area..

Apparently Mosaic should pick this type of activity up.

Elsewhere good gains in   Kara(38K) and Beaufort (44K) and also  Baffin(+17K) and Hudson(+10K). People    are now forecasting that Hudson will be full by  the end of the month.

So a time for watching to see where the next major change occurs.

Masie is now approaching 9,000KKm2,and I will do some 'time tracking' trends when it does.

I am sure that these will show we are now back in  'the pack', with all to play for.

MIA

Edited November 10, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Danger warning for snow in southern Norway - motorists are warned - Norway Today

NORWAYTODAY.INFO

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Large amounts of snow are expected in Sørlandet on Sunday. The meteorologists have sent out yellow hazard warning and are...

New cold temperature record in Troms - Norway Today

NORWAYTODAY.INFO

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At Bardufoss, it was measured minus 29 minus degree Celsius in the early hours to Sunday. Never before has it been this cold at the...

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

No real changes in US NIC this morning..

Still increases in the sea ice in many areas whilst others attached to the pacific directly continue to show slow growth.

The 'Caspian snow' fields have now finally joined up with the snow fields further north, and 'southern' European snow continues to grow  in the mountains.

There has been extensive increases of the snow in Scandinavia.

Hopefully low land snow will be on the charts shortly in many places.

Back later with the sea ice data as per Masie.

 

[throwoff]

If we look at last year against this it is very different in terms of ice growth.

2018 -

2019 - 

Ice has moved much further south and snow is pushing west a lot further than we had at this point last year.

 

I have to do it, because I am a rabid snow chaser, but we are closer to 2010 at the moment than we have been for a long while...

 

 

 

 

Edited November 11, 2019 by throwoff

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Nästan 35° kallt i Nikkaluokta | SMHI

WWW.SMHI.SE

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I söndags den 10 november uppmättes -34,5° i Nikkaluokta. Det putsades ytterligare under natten mot måndag till -34,6°, vilket är...

Snøkaos: Kvinne havnet under minibuss

WWW.NRK.NO

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Kvinnen i Ullensaker var ute og luftet hunden da hun ble truffet av en minibuss som skled på glatta.

Brrr! Weather warnings issued for snow across central Sweden

WWW.THELOCAL.SE

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Sweden has issued weather warnings in four counties for snow on Monday, while motorists are warned to take extra care across...

Heavy snowfall hits northern Spain

WATCHERS.NEWS

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The weather in northern Spain had taken a turn from warm to cold this week, with heavy snowfall reported on November 8, 2019. Yellow and...

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

Masie this evening...  

An average increase of +78K KM2 for the time of year. 2019 now over 9,0000 K KM2.

Many places that increased yesterday fell back slightly today. However Baffin (+16K), Hudson (+20K) and CAA(+23K) responded to the new cold bursting down in to the north of America. and Kara(+8K) tightened its grip on the NZ islands, and which now looks likely to fill in the remining areas of Kara , (very quickly as the coast has already iced).

Some stats on the sea ice refreeze -

Days from 5 -6000K    8

Days from 6-7000K     6

Days from 7-8000K     5

Days from 8-9000K    9        

That means that the ice has nearly doubled in extent in just 28days.

With the bitter record breaking cold both in Scandinavia and the North Ameican continent now, I cannot see a let up just yet. 

Today I can announce that the DMI  (above 80degrees north) temperature has dropped below 250K for the first time since 2013 (at this early stage of the freezing cycle).

Tis quite remarkable really when you look at the Climate Reanalyser current analysis of the Northern hemisphere, which is showing huge positive anomalies in both Greenland and Siberia extending into Alaska..

 

Perhaps the sea ice has more correlation with North Atlantic temperatures than has hitherto been thought possible?

 

 

 

MIA

Edited November 11, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[topo]

We had a pretty decent snowstorm last night.

22cm officially here and about 20-30cm in most areas of southeast Norway. Early season snowfall caused as usual snow chaos on the roads due to unprepared drivers with summer tires.

Unfortunately it will be all gone tomorrow, southeastern winds will bring rain and milder temperatures

[Geordiesnow]

Expect that red line to start shooting back up again as the southerlies are set to dominate the pole and move away the PV with it leaving the vast majority of the basin well above average temperature wise, at least for a short while. One positive I suppose, the fram express should be more minimal with the southerlies and perhaps more of the pacific side of the basin may start to ice up a bit more. The lack of sea ice in the Chuckchi is incredible and is just a sign of things to come in the next few decades with very slow refreezing of the ice to become the norm. 

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Winter's come early to North America this year

 

[Aleman]

The weather in North America has been bonkers. They've had 5 winter storms that have all had early snows and smashed temperature records. The latest one has seen settled snow in southen Texas and Mexico, Alabama and Mississippi - 6 weeks before Christmas! Temperatures went from about 10F above average to 20-25F below normal as the front passed over. Central Missouri is about 20C below normal.

Veterans Day beginning to look a lot like Christmas as cold sweeps nation; freeze coming to Florida

EU.USATODAY.COM

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A wintry weather pattern rolled across a wide swath of the nation, threatening to break hundreds of records and to freeze as far south as Alabama.

Scores of records could fall as cold, snow, ice sweep across nation

EU.USATODAY.COM

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148 daily record lows are forecast to be broken, tied, or come within 1 degree between Tuesday and Thursday, the National Weather Service said.

 

Climate Reanalyzer

CLIMATEREANALYZER.ORG

 

 

[V for Very Cold]

5 minutes ago, Aleman said:

The weather in North America has been bonkers. They've had 5 winter storms that have all had early snows and smashed temperature records. The latest one has seen settled snow in southen Texas and Mexico, Alabama and Mississippi - 6 weeks before Christmas! Temperatures went from about 10F above average to 20-25F below normal as the front passed over. Central Missouri is about 20C below normal.

Veterans Day beginning to look a lot like Christmas as cold sweeps nation; freeze coming to Florida

EU.USATODAY.COM

---

A wintry weather pattern rolled across a wide swath of the nation, threatening to break hundreds of records and to freeze as far south as Alabama.

Scores of records could fall as cold, snow, ice sweep across nation

EU.USATODAY.COM

---

148 daily record lows are forecast to be broken, tied, or come within 1 degree between Tuesday and Thursday, the National Weather Service said.

 

Climate Reanalyzer

CLIMATEREANALYZER.ORG

 

 

I shall summarise with one word...... Jealous! 

[Norrance]

My daughter lives in North / Central Indiana and has had her first substantial snow of the season yesterday. She says that November snow this early is unusual though not unknown there.

[JeffC]

23 minutes ago, Norrance said:

My daughter lives in North / Central Indiana and has had her first substantial snow of the season yesterday. She says that November snow this early is unusual though not unknown there.

great pics...as @V for Very Cold says, a touch of jealousy!

That's the point though isn't it? There are very few weather phenomena that are unheard of, but it's when they happen opustide the normal turn of events that it's remarkable. I do think we're seeing the effects of solar min coupled with low Arctic ice through summer melt...

[Norrance]

3 hours ago, JeffC said:

great pics...as @V for Very Cold says, a touch of jealousy!

That's the point though isn't it? There are very few weather phenomena that are unheard of, but it's when they happen opustide the normal turn of events that it's remarkable. I do think we're seeing the effects of solar min coupled with low Arctic ice through summer melt...

Yes -12C there this morning. First snow catches them out every year with schools closed etc as it did elsewhere like Norway and Sweden this week. They get used to it though. From her window just now.