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Snow & Ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019/20


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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

 

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl

Tonight's Masie..

 Shows a slowing in the rate of ice growth (today) to just below average rate of +69K Km2. About 15K Km2 below average.

As suggested earlier, the 'Russian' sector stalled with Kara (-9K), ESS(+1) and Laptev (0) now full. Barents recovered a bit(+4K).

On  the other hand ice has started growing in the western sectors, with Beaufort(+30), Baffin(+16K), CAA(+14K), and Hudson (+5K). Hudson has increased its ice by a half and looks likely to rapidly freeze in the next 2 weeks as very cold air encroaches from the North West Arctic. Bering (+5K), is also now stirring itself.

In other notes - the Baltic lost nearly all its newly formed ice. Can it survive,?

Temperatures are still falling like a stone.....DMI shows they have now reached average values for the last 40 years.

If further decreases are observed it really will be unusual (at least for the last few years). As it stands today, DMI has not seen this drop since 2014, certainly the last 4 years have been way surpassed.. 

It may be worth looking back over the Masie DMI temperature history, I can access via the link below - 

ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

In case you cannot link, I have provided the data for the last 6 years below - (just scan through them).

 

image.thumb.png.caf37a47580e2c577cd90567a863076d.png image.thumb.png.cf5884e639491a543e25bd0e6c2a99ab.pngimage.thumb.png.5352f3b1f88d1e8be56a8200120fd299.png                  

 

image.thumb.png.e373e88e2d0b204f22e998040639fc80.png image.thumb.png.c51322febbd7ba1bc28ea3438ce2d8df.png

image.thumb.png.4837d38362f264d39dd407f6925688d5.png

MIA

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl

Morning all

US NIC…..

Similar to yesterdays, although Kara increased more today..

Baffin also increased more than average, whilst Chukchi again retracted.

Expect further around average gains later today.

 

The snow line has reduced considerably eastwards in western Russia over the last 24hours. Snow however is now showing on mountain tops in Japan.

Also now showing in the western Alps, The Pyrenes and also Highland Scotland   

image.thumb.png.8ef8b12d0f8f9cb25828267f78d2e6d8.png

 

MIA

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire
  • Location: Yorkshire
On 06/11/2019 at 10:10, Midlands Ice Age said:

Can I point out that other people like Aleman, and the 'early morning' team have also helped to keep the thread moving along... 

Time will tell...….  Patience is required.

MIA

Flattery gets you a lot in this world!   It's motivated me enough to do another comparison with previous years:

ims2010310.gifims2011310.gifims2012311.gif

ims2013310.gifims2014310.gifims2015310.gif

ims2016311.gifims2017310.gifims2018310.gif

ims2019310.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
On 05/11/2019 at 22:10, Ice Day said:

Many thanks to both Kirkcaldy Weather and MIA for the daily updates, you've breathed new life into this thread!  There's no doubt that these early extreme temperatures around Scandinavia and Russia are posing some interesting questions.  Is this just a once in 20 year blip or something more significant?  

I'm still struggling to see anything that suggests an event of real significance. Ice extent has recovered swiftly from an all time low, but temperatures are still broadly a good bit above long term average and the cool anomalies over Scandy and NW USA are the exception rather than the rule hemispherically. If ice extent recovers to a level that exceeds the majority (or all) of the last 12 or 13 years and average arctic temperatures get below the long term average and stay there for weeks rather than days then I might be tempted to look much more closely at what is going on. Right now the anomaly charts and various ice/temperature graphs are not so far out of expected bounds in our christmas pudding to suggest we are seeing a sudden and dramatic shift to something new.

However open mindedness is important. A closed mind goes nowhere....so the updates and comments on this thread are valuable. Maybe...

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
1 hour ago, Catacol said:

I'm still struggling to see anything that suggests an event of real significance. Ice extent has recovered swiftly from an all time low, but temperatures are still broadly a good bit above long term average and the cool anomalies over Scandy and NW USA are the exception rather than the rule hemispherically. If ice extent recovers to a level that exceeds the majority (or all) of the last 12 or 13 years and average arctic temperatures get below the long term average and stay there for weeks rather than days then I might be tempted to look much more closely at what is going on. Right now the anomaly charts and various ice/temperature graphs are not so far out of expected bounds in our christmas pudding to suggest we are seeing a sudden and dramatic shift to something new.

However open mindedness is important. A closed mind goes nowhere....so the updates and comments on this thread are valuable. Maybe...

Thanks Catacol...

I have tried  hard to keep the major aspects of climate change out of this thread, and kept it to actually reporting the data.

I have also stressed that this is very early days in this ice refreeze season. 

This year has  not yet proved anything,  as you suggest,  in terms of the extent numbers; it started off slowly (very!), but the last 3 weeks have equally proved to be a very rapid refreeze (even the editor of ASIF has called it a rapid 'flash freeze' recently),  and this is what I have been picking up from the data. We have now moved to be within range of most of the yearly pack, and the major ice areas of Beaufort, Chukchi,  Baffin, Bering and Hudson Bay are still to really 'kick in'.  I suspect that they will define this ice season. 

Already the 'outer' sea areas of Baltic, SOO and the outer areas of Bering are early in showing ice and hence I suspect that they will not be slow to provide when their time comes.

The 'odd' thing about this years refreeze,  is that it is not occurring in the areas that have started the refreeze in the recent years, and all this not forgetting this was after a summer central pack that was reasonably concentrated, but lacking in decent thickness.

In the last few days the DMI temperature (inside the Arctic 80 degree lat. only) has dropped more quickly than anything seen in the last 5 years. If it continues  (a big if) then we will be challenging the freezes of 2006 - 9 period in terms of  low temperatures.

It is too early, yet,  to say if  this year is (or isn't)  any different from the last 10 years. 

However why should this refreeze happen in the way it has, and hence what has caused it? I feel Is a valid question to ask.

Simply put - I hope that if we do find the reason, it will enhance our knowledge of 'climate' in general.

I do have a very open mind and my previous posts listed 4 or 5 possibilities for what is happening.

Re your post above, I think we all need to watch and see what happens. It is unlikely that one refreeze will immediately mean that a new 'regime' exists, and I would not expect that any change would be that fast. After all it has taken the Arctic the last 40 years to get to this point.

Expecting to see a major shift in one year is probably pushing it too far. It could however be the start of a different aspect to Arctic ice conditions.

MIA 

 

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl

Todays Masie's sea ice extent shows an above average gain of 111K Km2.  (+30K ) above average.

More or less as predicted this morning, but with Beaufort(-7K) and Chukchi(+22K) switching around. (I must have the border misaligned!).

Elsewhere ESS(+9K) pushed past Wrangle Island, whereas Laptev(-2K - already full) diminished by ice movement.   

Greenland(+7K) and Barents(+25K) began to expand as the easterlies took over the ice , and Baffin(+49K) emerged from its slow start. The CAA continued its slow continuation towards 'fullness'  with a (+6K) increase. Hudson (+1K) was the only noteworthy of the outer areas, and that because I thought it would be more!.

Oh yes - the ice in the Baltic survived for another day.

Large portions of the Central Arctic, Canada, Greenland and Siberia  are now experiencing temperatures below -30C maxima. During the night many areas are now approaching -40C. In Greenland these are fairly normal, but have not been seen this widely for a decent spell for a couple of years.

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#t2

But the temperature anomaly is still showing a very warm 'patch' underneath the Ozone in the Eastern Arctic, and a very cold patch directly over the pole extending westwards over Svalbard.

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#t2anom

The surprising thing about this is that the Chukchi and ESS have continued to freeze, at all,  under this warm patch.

Could it be that the huge tropo/stratospheric Ozone blob over this area (absorbs any IR and hence warms very quickly) is misleading satellites into recording very warm surface conditions?

It is a possibility, since Roy Spencer recently reported that his UAH Lower Tropospheric recording system was 'misled' (it effectively created an annaprop in his algorithms) by a new and unusually large SST (normally associated with large Ozone concentrations) over Antarctica for his Sept monthly readings. If he admitted to being wrong then I suspect a similar thing could be happening here. 

It seems as if we are developing much larger amounts of Ozone in the upper atmosphere at present.

Anyone know why?

MIA

 

 

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

Buffalo, NY is getting its first lake effect snow of the season, some webcams here to follow---

 

BUFFALOWEBCAM.COM

setTimeout("location.href = 'http://buffalowebcam.com';",180000);

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Urm!!!

just compare this nov to the one in 2010,and we know what happened in 2010

ims2019310.thumb.gif.7d23acfded2d551669daea5d50f2994c.gifims2010310.thumb.gif.e74fa752b43b0ccd85e68065139d828e.gif

there is a lot more snow this year,whether that means we get a better winter though is anyone's guess but i like what i am seeing.

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Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
3 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

(SNIPPED)

It seems as if we are developing much larger amounts of Ozone in the upper atmosphere at present.

Anyone know why?

MIA

I don't know whether this might provide a clue MIA. It's an old research paper but it may provide a pointer? This extract from the conclusions:

Interannual Variations of Total Ozone and Their Relationship to Variations of Planetary Wave Activity
Interannual variations of total ozone operate coherently with variations of upwelling planetary wave activity from the troposphere. This mechanism, which is fundamental to the wintertime increase of ozone, has been virtually ignored in considerations of interannual variability. Variations of upwelling planetary wave activity, which modulate ozone transport and chemical production by the diabatic mean circulation, account for much of the interannual variance of mid-latitude TOMS ozone, inclusive of its systematic decline during the1980s.

Full paper: https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<1619%3AIVOTOA>2.0.CO%3B2

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Posted
  • Location: Central Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Polar lows are the dream
  • Location: Central Scotland

Really enjoying this thread - thanks to all who keep it going so reliably!

Those who haven't seen this website before, but are interested in this topic, will enjoy this: http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Its a blog, updated every month or so, about conditions in the far north. It provides a good overview of how low the extent is at the moment, relative to historic averages. But it also notes the increased ice and cold around Svalbard, which has been lacking in recent years.

Indeed, it is one of the few times in the last ten years that I've seen the Norwegian Met Service record a 30-day run of temperatures in Svalbard that aren't above average. Check out this statistics page to see how drastically warm the last twelve months have been in that part of the Barents, relative to the long-term 'normal': https://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Longyearbyen/statistics.html

Cheers all!

Edited by Stravaiger
Adding correct links in
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
23 minutes ago, Stravaiger said:

Really enjoying this thread - thanks to all who keep it going so reliably!

Those who haven't seen this website before, but are interested in this topic, will enjoy this: http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Its a blog, updated every month or so, about conditions in the far north. It provides a good overview of how low the extent is at the moment, relative to historic averages. But it also notes the increased ice and cold around Svalbard, which has been lacking in recent years.

Indeed, it is one of the few times in the last ten years that I've seen the Norwegian Met Service record a 30-day run of temperatures in Svalbard that aren't above average. Check out this statistics page to see how drastically warm the last twelve months have been in that part of the Barents, relative to the long-term 'normal': https://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Longyearbyen/statistics.html

Cheers all!

Stravaiger..

 Thanks for this info. It is useful to build up a centre of knowledge. I have viewed arcticseaice on quite a lot of occasions, and I will be interested in reading the latest update to see what they say about Svalbard (and Barents).

Certainly the ice this year is many weeks ahead of other recent years. (Last year was considered quite good, but it was Jan before it came to this position).

The fact that Svalbard and the area was so warm for the previous 11months make the refreeze even more remarkable.

The temperatures in Svalbard must be returning to their former values.

On the same discussion topic  the Stats guy on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum has just posted that this is one of the few times this century that the Central Arctic Basin (CAB) has become full. When this has occurred before in the last 10 years it was in late January of February. It is similar to the earliest dates recorded in the 20th century.

He uses the last 5 days average of extent and area to reach his conclusion. He quotes 3.224K Km2 as the total extent, and this was breached by Masie on 5th November.

Anyhow welcome and 'k e e p    p o s t I n g'.

MIA

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
34 minutes ago, Stravaiger said:

Indeed, it is one of the few times in the last ten years that I've seen the Norwegian Met Service record a 30-day run of temperatures in Svalbard that aren't above average. Check out this statistics page to see how drastically warm the last twelve months have been in that part of the Barents, relative to the long-term 'normal': https://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Longyearbyen/statistics.html

Cheers all!

Nice find Stravaiger.  Interesting temp pattern over the last year in Svalbard -  between Oct 18 - Apr 19 the temperature fluctuated wildly and was generally way above the 'normal' temperature.  However, from May onwards, the actual temp has aligned fairly closely to the average with much less volatility.  Far too small a sample size to be statistically significant, however this is definitely something to keep an eye on.

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
49 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

I don't know whether this might provide a clue MIA. It's an old research paper but it may provide a pointer? This extract from the conclusions:

Interannual Variations of Total Ozone and Their Relationship to Variations of Planetary Wave Activity
Interannual variations of total ozone operate coherently with variations of upwelling planetary wave activity from the troposphere. This mechanism, which is fundamental to the wintertime increase of ozone, has been virtually ignored in considerations of interannual variability. Variations of upwelling planetary wave activity, which modulate ozone transport and chemical production by the diabatic mean circulation, account for much of the interannual variance of mid-latitude TOMS ozone, inclusive of its systematic decline during the1980s.

Full paper: https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<1619%3AIVOTOA>2.0.CO%3B2

Thanks BW..

I'll read it now and come back...

MIA

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
o2BZWf1aWqV28UwV-nKLZglSF-neswrof8Mm9IyU
WWW.NRK.NO

Etter flere dager der det har lavet ned enorme mengder snø var meteorologen spent da han skulle måle snødybden i Tromsø onsdag...

 

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
7 hours ago, Ice Day said:

Nice find Stravaiger.  Interesting temp pattern over the last year in Svalbard -  between Oct 18 - Apr 19 the temperature fluctuated wildly and was generally way above the 'normal' temperature.  However, from May onwards, the actual temp has aligned fairly closely to the average with much less volatility.  Far too small a sample size to be statistically significant, however this is definitely something to keep an eye on.

Ice Day and Stavaiger..

I looked at the temps as well.

I found that the temps you presented showed that this Oct 2019 that they were colder than the Nov of 2018.

I also found that they were below average during Jan - Mar 2019, when the ice managed to circumvent Svalbard for the first time for quite a while.

Again why has this happened?.

I would love to see the actual temperatures on Wrangel Island right now, but I cannot find any data although they have a research station there..

Ice has formed, but Climate Reanalyser shows it being extremely warm there. Something does not stack up.  

Aha....

 I have just discovered a guy on the ArcticIceForum who apparently has also been puzzled by the same phenomena.

He has 'discovered' an island (kotelny Island) on the Laptev ESS border that has a Meteo station.

I will attach  the  report and data, so that you can see what happened during the ' flash freeze' in the area.

 

Quote (thanks to the AASIF).

Here are the temperatures on Kotelny Island for the past 30 days, 

Kotelny is located between the ESS and Laptev.

The temperatures show a considerable drop after the 28th. But that was after the ice growth had shut off the open water influence. Prior to that date, the temperatures were below zero but rarely below -8 C. Not enough you would think to start a big freeze. (My emphasis)

 image.thumb.png.8653a4b1542bbe90ab246d5ea6318f36.png

All very interesting.

As can be seen the temps were hardly below freezing when the 'icing' started. (around the 27th)

They are suggesting that the temps are kept warmer due to the heat being generated as the water freezes.

It could be...…. 

- Yet another theory to take into account. 

Back later

MIA

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Posted
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, Heavy snowfall, Thunder and lightning, Stormy weather
  • Location: South Ockendon, Thurrock, SW Essex

More snow has spread further in Southern Scandinavia and Scotland as small increases for Russia.

cursnow_asiaeurope Snow and Ice Chart of Asia and Europe Thursday 07th November 2019.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
1 minute ago, Katrine Basso said:

More snow has spread further in Southern Scandinavia and Scotland as small increases for Russia.

cursnow_asiaeurope Snow and Ice Chart of Asia and Europe Thursday 07th November 2019.gif

Thanks Katrine

Was just about to post it..

Shows also that the ice has undergone a general increase in just about all sea areas, with Chukchi and Beaufort again featuring..

My guess would be around another century increase.

MIA

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
18 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

 

It seems as if we are developing much larger amounts of Ozone in the upper atmosphere at present.

Anyone know why?

MIA

 

 

Hi MIA - not wishing to teach anyone's granny etc. Ozone is created by the splitting of an O2 molecule (stable) into 2 x O atoms (unstable) and this can be done by a number of means. If you ever played with an electric model railway, that clean smell that accompanied it was ozone created by the arcing of the contacts splitting O2 molecules. It can also be done by radiation and it's this that happens in the Ozone layer within the atmosphere. I could actually taste the Ozone created in me when I had radiotherapy treatment 17 years ago, that was strange! But I digress!

In the Solar & Aurora Activity Chat Thread  

 @Minus 10 updates daily on the neutron count, currently graded as high which isn't atypical for a solar minimum. I think it's the increased neutron radiation which is promoting the development of Ozone in the upper atmosphere

 

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
6 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Ice Day and Stavaiger..

I looked at the temps as well.

I found that the temps you presented showed that this Oct 2019 that they were colder than the Nov of 2018.

I also found that they were below average during Jan - Mar 2019, when the ice managed to circumvent Svalbard for the first time for quite a while.

Again why has this happened?.

I would love to see the actual temperatures on Wrangel Island right now, but I cannot find any data although they have a research station there..

Ice has formed, but Climate Reanalyser shows it being extremely warm there. Something does not stack up.  

Aha....

 I have just discovered a guy on the ArcticIceForum who apparently has also been puzzled by the same phenomena.

He has 'discovered' an island (kotelny Island) on the Laptev ESS border that has a Meteo station.

I will attach  the  report and data, so that you can see what happened during the ' flash freeze' in the area.

 

Quote (thanks to the AASIF).

Here are the temperatures on Kotelny Island for the past 30 days, 

Kotelny is located between the ESS and Laptev.

The temperatures show a considerable drop after the 28th. But that was after the ice growth had shut off the open water influence. Prior to that date, the temperatures were below zero but rarely below -8 C. Not enough you would think to start a big freeze. (My emphasis)

 image.thumb.png.8653a4b1542bbe90ab246d5ea6318f36.png

All very interesting.

As can be seen the temps were hardly below freezing when the 'icing' started. (around the 27th)

They are suggesting that the temps are kept warmer due to the heat being generated as the water freezes.

It could be...…. 

- Yet another theory to take into account. 

Back later

MIA

Continuing with  the above …

I have just realised that  the whole area from Laptev to the Bering Straits and into the Central and Chukchi is, at the moment, under a huge positive temperature anomaly...

See CR below -

 image.thumb.png.e6fe5a22ec31a22bf4b489ae9156e313.png

According to me that is more than a +20degrees anomaly.

I have my doubts that it is correct.

Particularly as most of  ESS and Central and Laptev are ice covered and we have seen temperatures are around -20C as recorded at the station on the border of Laptev and ESS.  

Now this gets more and more 'weird'.

Makes me even more suspicious that the Ozone patches may have something to do with this.

I am double checking the ozone content of the atmosphere in these regions.!!!

Back from checking...……..

 image.thumb.png.4ad8a3a62eb8546bf18785e5c0418b04.png

 The above is for 3/11/19 

image.thumb.png.f4a34587d83afdde63c9007f3454897d.png

The one above is for 7/11/19, the latest.

As can be seen Siberia and the eastern Arctic basin  has had a large positive Ozone anomaly, and from my previous postings this has lasted for the last 2 weeks or more.  All this time this area has been shown to have recorded large positive  2M temperature anomalies, according to CR  (which uses the GFS data)..

I have read Blessed  Weather's link to the subject of Ozone, I now need to look at some other papers, with more up to date data...

It could be a general increase in temperatures caused by the latent heat of fusion of ice being released on freezing (the opposite of the way that 2M temps are held down to around freezing as the ice melts).. That was the conclusion of the ASIForum I quoted above.

But we already know that Laptev/ESS is recording -20C on the ground in the area, and the whole area has been 'iced' for about 10 days now,  so I think that is unlikely.

MIA 

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
9 minutes ago, JeffC said:

Hi MIA - not wishing to teach anyone's granny etc. Ozone is created by the splitting of an O2 molecule (stable) into 2 x O atoms (unstable) and this can be done by a number of means. If you ever played with an electric model railway, that clean smell that accompanied it was ozone created by the arcing of the contacts splitting O2 molecules. It can also be done by radiation and it's this that happens in the Ozone layer within the atmosphere. I could actually taste the Ozone created in me when I had radiotherapy treatment 17 years ago, that was strange! But I digress!

In the Solar & Aurora Activity Chat Thread  

 @Minus 10 updates daily on the neutron count, currently graded as high which isn't atypical for a solar minimum. I think it's the increased neutron radiation which is promoting the development of Ozone in the upper atmosphere

 

Thanks JeffC..  

I am aware of the possible routes to O3....  (thanks to my reading)..

Yes, I have been reading several papers recently

Ozone can be produced by 3 major methods -

1) From pollution -  NO2, NO, and NO3 can react with the split O molecules in the lower atmosphere (during very sunny and hot weather)  to produce lower atmosphere Ozone. However Ozone is very reactive, and will react very readily in the dense lower atmosphere. Hence this is thought to be only a small provider as it readily combines with water, to produce mainly H and more water.

2) By lightning strikes in the atmosphere. This is using the same mechanism as above but the splitting of the O2 molecule is performed by the strike. It is not known exactly how much is produced by this mechanism as lower level strikes will not in general, allow the Ozone to rise.  However it could be a substantial provider of  Ozone in the upper atmosphere. (according to research). Researchers are currently looking to determine the ratio of upper to lower strikes and trying to determine the amounts of O3 that could be produced, remembering that there are millions (Billions?) of strikes a year.

Indeed in a warming world, it is possible that they could be even more common in the future.

3) Produced in the troposphere/lower stratosphere (Between 15 and roughly 30 miles) by incoming high energy particles.

These can be either from solar, or from the 'background' high energy particles, and we know that they continuously bombard the earth as evidenced by the Aurora Borealis.  It is now thought that during periods of 'low solar', that we are  'exposed' to much more of this type of production of Ozone. 

So both methods of Ozone production could be at a high right now.

4) Ozone is rapidly 'lost' after a volcano (/earthquake?) when sometimes large amounts of SO2 enter the atmosphere and reach into the troposphere.

Largish volcanos  have been largely absent recently - so this method of 'containment' has not been strong.

CO2 is only a very small proportion of the stratosphere and can be ignored at these heights. Ozone  exists at this height as it has normally no 'predators'  for it to react with.

 

Ozone protects the earth  from high UV energy particles. It is therefore very useful to us.

It, however, is also a  broad spectrum IR  receiver, and It therefore will compete with H2O and CO2 in our atmosphere.

So - looking at the history of Ozone (as far as it goes!), we can see that it was reduced tremendously by the fluorohydrocarbon outbreak of the 1990's (and earlier) . This was thought to have been stopped and indeed Ozone did recover slowly.

However 2 years ago an outbreak of Fluoro-carbons was picked up by satellites (in China). It is believed to have been stopped.

So could it be that we are now 'free' from any Ozone destroying man-made chemicals?

If so, it is possible that Ozone is 'rebounding' back now.

In addition to the larger amounts in the northern hemisphere I have shown above, we are now seeing much more in the southern hemisphere -

Todays map -toast_sh_20191107.png

As can be seen the 'hole' still exists, but much reduced, and we now have quite large amounts still around down there.

It looks to me as if we are in a period of increasing Ozone amounts.

Models use a generalised methodology involving a 'mesh' for its handling of the substance. It is treated as an 'Aerosol'.

Is this good enough during current times?

The above are my thoughts after  a reading marathon over the last couple of days (inspired by BW). 

Am I wide of the mark?

I think I may  be out of posts now... so I will be back later with the Masie  report.

MIA

  

 

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  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
25 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Big gains in Baffin it seems and also Beaufort and Chucksi so it seems. When is masie updated? 

 

 

Arhu3 ...

 At about 14:30 normally

Though I notice that the NSIDC figures were late this morning, as was JAXA

 MIA

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