Snow & Ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019/20

[Katrine Basso]

There are some small reductions of snow cover in Scandinavia.

[Midlands Ice Age]

4 hours ago, ArHu3 said:

I just checked the sst, it looks very different from anything I have seen before : it almost looks like the jetstream is blocked by a small and very cold blob. Could this be the reason for the relatively rapid refreeze of the Atlantic?

 

Arhu3..

Yep I totally agree. The sst's in the northern Atlantic are way below what they have been in the last few years. I was going to do a post on it. The question is what is causing this. Is it simply that the ice has cooled the water in the area, or has (more likely) that the cold sst's have allowed the ice to form?.

The other aspect is that in the 'Atlanticified Arctic' the weather patterns have had low pressure over the N Russian coastline for about a month now and that has allowed a continual easterly flow to the area.

With Siberia turning colder this year, these lows have brought this colder air firstly  northward and then it has spread across the whole of the North Russian Arctic coastline. This has then resulted in the ice rushing out from the coastline outwards (and Northwards) rather than waiting for the sea ice pack to move south, - which would probably have meant a further 2 week delay in the ice refreeze.

My question would be..  is this possible 'change' as a result of the long predicted change in the AMO?.  It is far too early yet to make any conclusions, but the longer this goes on the more possible it might be.

 

US NIC this morning ….

Continued steady advance of ice in all sea areas with the possible exception of Baffin,

Expect another  150K Km2 advance today.

Snow has moved back into south central  Asia in a big way, whilst just about holding the western movement into Europe. 

MIA

                                                          

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

Masie today…

A total increase of +154K km2, fast gaining on 8000K Km2.

If it achieves it tomorrow (requires +126K)  it will mean it has only taken 6 days to achieve the 7K to 8K breakout, and will have gained over 2.200K in just 12 days. The average is around 17 days at this point.

Masie showed much the same as for the last week, with the reductions in  the build up in Laptev(+33K), and western ESS(+41K), but increases in Kara (+42K)  continuing, also the outer ice areas are continuing to show up very early with Hudson (showing up with (+3K)) and a first recording for the Baltic Sea. This is very early, and probably will not last, but fits in with the early cold in N Scandinavia..

Positives for Beaufort (+6K) and Chukchi (+17K) seem to be halting the recent melting in the current weakest ice growth areas.

Barents (+6K) continued the very early growth here and looks as though it may ensnare Svalbard,   but just possibly from the south!!!

CAA(+4K) and Baffin (+3K) seem to be consolidating by slow loss of heat and could well speed up the ice production shortly. The CAA would then help the push into Beaufort (and Bering).

I expect the next few days to show a slow down in the rate of growth, but with colder temperatures now being forecast, this may well promote more ice growth in areas now 'primed'. I am thinking of Beaufort, Chukchi, Baffin,  and unusually Barents,  in just a few days time.

MIA  

 

Edited November 1, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[Katrine Basso]

More increases of ice cover albeit small decreases in snow cover.

[Midlands Ice Age]

54 minutes ago, Katrine Basso said:

More increases of ice cover albeit small decreases in snow cover.

Yep

General increases in ice again, particularly in the Russian sector, whilst the US sector looks  flat.

Of note is that Kara ice has just about reached N.Z.    (no not New Zealand!!)

Expect another century plus later.

Although the snow has reduced slightly in Asia it has moved slightly west. and is now right up to the Russian St Petersburg Gulf of Finland coastline.

MIA 

[Midlands Ice Age]

Following up on the recent trends in the Northern Hemisphere, I attempted to use Climate Reanalyser to look at surface pressure, temperature and ssts in the area.

They confirm my impression that this years autumn conditions are different from the last 10 years and also explain why the ice is behaving the way it is. As to what has caused it, that is a more open question.

Firstly I will show todays Arctic SLP chart -

(Can I suggest you use the zoom feature to look closely at the following graphs) -

 

It can clearly be seen that an anticyclone dominates most of the central Arctic (over the polar ice mass). This has forced the winds to move around it in an clockwise direction and because of its position induces southerly winds into Alaska, but with easterlies along the Russian coastline.. This is being enhanced by the string of low pressure areas lined up along the Russian coastline.

Now to temperatures -

These are the minimum temperatures.

I have used minimum to easily show what is happening... It make little difference that they are minimum since the diurnal change at this time of year is only about 3-5degrees maximum.   

From it you can see under the H.P. the temperatures are falling away (in situ cooling?) and are approaching -25C in the central polar areas and in Greenland they are now around -35 to -40 C. Also in N. Russia temperatures around -30C are becoming visible. It also shows  that temperatures are 'higher' in extreme Siberia and Alaska at about  -6 to -10C. These latter are above average for the time of year.

See the anomaly temperature map below -

Also see these mornings DMI arctic temperature map (from  the EC forecast system)  -

and it is obvious that more rapid cooling is occurring under the current conditions.

 

Now the interesting points are - 

1) the sst's are still higher than normal in the Chukchi  and Bering,

2) but lower than normal over Kara and Barents (an indeed into the whole of the Atlantic around Scandinavia).  

This latter situation has not been seen for many years..

See below -

 

If one now displays the latest ice and snow map (and also have followed, on here, the last 2 weeks of growth of the sea ice! ) it is clearly responding to the atmospheric conditions in the Arctic,  which are 'forcing' the temperatures in the various areas -

 

 

So why do we have the 'fixed' anticyclone over the pole and where is the polar vortex?

Can I suggest that no one knows just yet..

But things to consider are -

1) Is it a response to a change to a negative AMO as evidenced by the reducing sst's in the North Atlantic? (see my graph of yesterday)? Have these negative sst's been caused by (or are they as a result of) the 'fixed' easterlies over the Russian coastline this year?

2) Is this a change induced by the 'low solar' minimum that we are currently undergoing?.

Remember during the LIA, Europe was characterised by a lot of easterly and northerly winds, which can only have been caused by similar atmospheric conditions, and this happened during a very low solar period..

3) Could it possibly be  a purely natural change caused by a 'cyclic'  climate? Or is it a forcing caused by climate change?

4) Is it a temporary phenomena and will be gone in the next few weeks?  Rather like the  Pacific 'blob'  a few years back.

The above are the possibilities  (there may be others).

Can I suggest we await the next evolution of this event, before we jump to any conclusion(s)..   

MIA 

PS Sorry about the additional graph below, it doesn't seem to want to delete..

Edited November 2, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

MIA an excellent post and look forward to the progression.  There has been talk of the change in AMO and ‘could’ be linked with the long term solar cycles if the timing for change is now.  

BFTP

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[topo]

Norway had it's coldest October in 10 years.

November also, at least for the first 10 days, seem to be colder than usual

Oktober 2019 er den kaldeste i Norge på ti år

WWW.NRK.NO

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I Finnmark har det vært -27 grader allerede.

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

3 minutes ago, topo said:

Norway had it's coldest October in 10 years.

November also, at least for the first 10 days, seem to be colder than usual

Oktober 2019 er den kaldeste i Norge på ti år

WWW.NRK.NO

---

I Finnmark har det vært -27 grader allerede.

 

Welcome to the forum..

Where are you living?

MIA

[Winter wonder]

Midlands Ice Age.  Nice summary of events.  I jump to the conclusion this is all down to the low Solar Activity now being called the Eddy minimum.  I have seen many historic temperature charts that show warming in Alaska and cooling in Western Europe during a Grand Minima so I am not surprised by what we are seeing now. 

[Optimus Prime]

According to the solar section, someone has mentioned a big drop in the thermosphere temperature. Similar thing occurred during the 2009 solar solar cycle but unsure to what extent. This of course coincided with much colder weather across NW Europe, particularly during the winter months of 2010.

https://www.space.com/7685-earth-upper-atmosphere-cooling-dramatically.html

Edited November 2, 2019 by Optimus Prime

[beng]

 

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

Thanks for the responses above.

I think that the next 2 months might be very interesting...

I can see a possibility  of Barents virtually filling up to the Scandinavian coastline this year by the spring with the rate that the ice is pushing westwards into Kara. That would be something that hasn't happened for nearly 20 years.

We will see..

Masie today carries on with the trend over the last week, with the Atlantic 'galloping away', and the Pacific saying 'no way - Hose'.

Masie now at 8,050K Km2 (+177K today) and the record I alluded to last night,  (12 days from 6 - 8000K) has verified.  

Kara(+48K), ESS(+54K) and Laptev(+63K) continue their rapid filling. Kara has now reached Novaya Zemlya, about a month previous to many other recent years. The ESS is now expanding eastwards towards Wrangel Island as well as now expanding northwards towards  Chukchi.

Barents (-7K) had a slight reduction, but the coastline has now started  freezing and Archangel is within range. Greenland expanded by (+11K), mainly on the Atlantic side down Fram.           The ice in the Baltic survived!!.

Meanwhile,  Chukchi (+11K) and Beaufort(-3K) are in a state of stasis, though still less  than last year. However it was also when Bering did not have any ice until the end of this month. Bering has now iced along the coast to Point Barrow and is awaiting the pack to envelope it. Bering (on the Russian side)  is showing rapid development of coastal ice, and the SOO is also showing similar with both being around average for the time of year..  

CAA(0), and Baffin(-6K) showed little change. The Central Arctic(+6K) must now be approaching a peak much earlier than many other years,(though only about another 30K is required to fill it up)..

So the outer areas look as if they will ice up at normal rates when it comed to their turn.

It is worth looking at the latest charts of the Masie

Time series ice plots (by region), where it can be seen how different the two halves of the Arctic are this year.

https://nsidc.org/data/masie/masie_plots

with all western sea areas being at the bottom of the last few years, and all the eastern (Atlantic) being at the top.

 

MIA

Blow(!!)  it,,,, it still seems as though it has kept the temperature from my previous post. I might well have to clear my cash, to get rid of it . 

Edited November 2, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[V for Very Cold]

This is absolutely fascinating stuff MIA... and quite compulsive reading... I look forward to the updates every day... I can’t wait to see if this is a portent for our winter!

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Don]

8 hours ago, topo said:

Norway had it's coldest October in 10 years.

November also, at least for the first 10 days, seem to be colder than usual

Oktober 2019 er den kaldeste i Norge på ti år

WWW.NRK.NO

---

I Finnmark har det vært -27 grader allerede.

 

Although I imagine many of the Octobers in the last 10 years were probably mild in Norway?

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Next few winters likely to be snowy in Scandinavia....

[northwestsnow]

Nice to see..my grandpa spent his childhood in Slonim Poland, now Belarus.He said Winters there used to start in November and last to March with little thaw at all.

This was probably the 1920s and 1930s so perhaps this was a colder phase in the cycles..

I will consider the early onset of Winter across Scandy and parts of the old Soviet union as a plus..

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

 Morning all,

 US NIC this morning shows the snow around the Caspian and also moving further south into Asia. It does seem to have moved back from the north of Europe somewhat. (if temporarily, according to the latest forecasts).

Ice growth , as was suggested, looks to be moderating this morning now that Laptev and ESS (western side) is full.

The ice is still continuing to move eastwards  towards Wrangel. Elsewhere, fairly mixed with possibly more gains than losses.

Back with the Masie data,  later, but my guess would be around +100K Km2, a reduction on the last 2 weeks and close to the seasonal normal.

MIA

 

Edited November 3, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[ArHu3]

There's a new update on MASIE, it looks like the Baltic had a big increase, hopefully it stays frozen for the rest of winter because a frozen Baltic Sea makes NE's pack a punch over where I live (in the Netherlands)

 

edit: now I see they use different scales on the y-axis for the different regions, 800km2, that's only a very small region of the total Baltic sea even (around 400000 km2) but still the freeze hasn't happened this early in the past 5 years at least

Edited November 3, 2019 by ArHu3

[summer blizzard]

1 hour ago, ArHu3 said:

There's a new update on MASIE, it looks like the Baltic had a big increase, hopefully it stays frozen for the rest of winter because a frozen Baltic Sea makes NE's pack a punch over where I live (in the Netherlands)

 

edit: now I see they use different scales on the y-axis for the different regions, 800km2, that's only a very small region of the total Baltic sea even (around 400000 km2) but still the freeze hasn't happened this early in the past 5 years at least

I have always been curious how cold ice fields around the coast get once an area is frozen over. Obviously a town on the Baltic coast will hover around the freezing mark when the water is open because of the moist air however once frozen over, just how much colder would a similar upper airmass produce for that same town without the modification. 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Almost 8 inches of early snow hits Chechnya, Russia

WWW.SOTT.NET

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Snowfall - the first in four years - has been going on in Chechnya for 24 hours, the Republican Hydrometeorological Center...

 

 

[ArHu3]

42 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

I have always been curious how cold ice fields around the coast get once an area is frozen over. Obviously a town on the Baltic coast will hover around the freezing mark when the water is open because of the moist air however once frozen over, just how much colder would a similar upper airmass produce for that same town without the modification. 

From experience when our former inland sea (now several dammed of lakes) freezes whenever wind comes from that direction it is much colder than it would otherwise have been

 

IJsselmeer - Wikipedia

EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

 

Edited November 3, 2019 by ArHu3