Snow & Ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019/20

[Midlands Ice Age]

14 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

 

I have left the most tasty morsel until last. Although it hasn't changed that much Kara looks ready to take off.

Ice has been moving out from the Russian coastline steadily, but the small 'blobs' I referred to yesterday both imcreased  in area and also joined up with the main pack moving down from Jan Mayen Isles ..This resulted in a gain of (+41K), but larger increases can be expected as the freeze now attacks the gaps formed.

All this  whilst the temperature has averaged 3C ABOVE average. Really is getting more and more interesting and puzzling.

 

 

MIA

 

Hi all..

This mornings US NIC is probably even more incredible (though what posted above last night mostly). 

Looks like more large 200K gains.

This time in the regions I was expecting.   vis Barents,Kara. Laptev and ESS.

Worth looking at Kara - looks like a large portion of it froze yesterday, Expect a 100K increase from it later on. It has filled in the whole of the eastern portion in 24hours.

The snow changes worthy of mention with the expected westward extension into Western Russia occuring, though a loss in the Eastern front around China..

MIA

 

Edited October 29, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[Aleman]

To say Antarctic ice is melting at an alarming rate would be misleading. Extent increased for nearly 4 decades until it suddenly fell away a bit about 3 years ago and remained low but has recovered quiet a bit in recent months, though is still below average. It coincides with some cold weather through April to mid July with a few absurdly cold weeks in there somewhere - June I think - though it has now been warmer than average again for a few weeks. (Scroll down a bit to see Antarctic ice recover some in recent months.)

 

GCW Trackers

GLOBALCRYOSPHEREWATCH.ORG

As for CO2, I'd expect that warm waters would release CO2 at the equator and then, as ocean currents cycled water from equator to poles, the water would cool and reabsorb CO2. Of course, this is a cycle - it goes in one end and out the other and will vary a bit with season, weather and currents. Over a longer period through the Holocene, sea temperatures have risen so a bit more should be coming out than going in.

The Amazon rainforest cycle is more complex and more debated. This example has growing trees absorbing 2.2bn tonnes of CO2 and dying trees releasing 1.9bn tonnes in a normal year. Trouble is, they have occasional abnormal years where storms or disease (frost a few months back?) kill extra trees and the effect of this is not agreed, besides some other variables, so there may be abnormal years where there is less net absorption. (Could there maybe even be rare odd years of net emission?)
 

Amazon Rainforest Breathes In More Than It Breathes Out | Live Science

WWW.LIVESCIENCE.COM

---

 

My thought is that the programme presented as facts some things that were rather variable and maybe not actually facts all the time but could be right for some time frames and not others - oversimplifications if you like.

Edited October 29, 2019 by Aleman

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

Thanks KW for the beautiful photos above of the snow 'invading' Western Russia and Finland, and also for the SCE chart of J.Cohen, which I could not find 3 days ago!!.

Now as per the post directly above, the ice seems to be 'transforming' itself.  I forecast it will soon be 3rd lowest, but note it will need continued good weather conditions for further gains..

 

Masie today....

A huge record breaking increase in Arctic ice shown for yesterday.

A nearly triple century gain of (+297K KM2). -  I have only found one instance of a triple century increase in the last 5 years.

That makes 1.700K KM2 increase in just 7 days.

 

The huge gain was achieved mainly by means of a nearly double century gain (+181K) in Kara.

I did suggest that this might happen just 24-36hours ago, when describing pre-conditions for a flash freeze. I think that this qualified.!!

Other areas supporting Kara were ESS(+53K) and Laptev(+39K),  now expected to continue until  Laptev is full.

The ESS is also now extending along the coast towards the Kamchatka Peninsula, and Wrangel Island (at sea on the border of the ESS and Chukchi) is now showing some ice for the first time.

Barents and Greenland continued the growth of the whole Arctic Atlantic  front with gains  of (+16K ) and (+21K). Central still continuing with its gains of (+7K), Can it completely fill up this year, now that the ice is moving into the North Atlantic?

I think it is 5 -10 years since this last happened. I will check it out.

 

Meanwhile the Pacific front continues to stagnate.

Bering (-1K), Beaufort (-19K), Chukchi (-12K) and Baffin(-1K) all failed to record increases whilst SOO also stagnated as did Hudson. The CAA however recorded a gain of (+14K)  as the cold conditions swept into Northern Canada again.

I do however wonder whether the fact that these areas are remaining 'open' for longer will spark some more rapid gains in the areas around North America. These areas have kept a 'reasonable' amount of ice in the last few years whilst the 'Atlantification' of the Arctic has remained strong.

Is this  a switch around? and if so what has caused it? 

https://nsidc.org/data/masie/masie_plots

MIA

Edited October 29, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

MIA, very interesting.  Sea ice has melted from bottom up not top down due to oceanic cycles of which the last pulse had ended.  We have seen this year incredible and date record cold in swathes of Canada and Russia, the air is still darn cold.  We now see widespread real cold temperatures spreading into the northern continents......so this recovery of ice is no surprise as the warm cycle has ended.

 

BFTP

[Catacol]

13 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

MIA, very interesting.  Sea ice has melted from bottom up not top down due to oceanic cycles of which the last pulse had ended.  We have seen this year incredible and date record cold in swathes of Canada and Russia, the air is still darn cold.  We now see widespread real cold temperatures spreading into the northern continents......so this recovery of ice is no surprise as the warm cycle has ended.

 

BFTP

Hmm I think this needs explaining a bit. Given that sea ice was at record lows through most of the last 2 weeks are you suggesting a warm oceanic cycle has ended in the last few weeks/months? If so what cycle is this? All I see is a continuation of arctic ice misery despite the swift refreeze in some parts over the last few days.

Edited October 29, 2019 by Catacol

[Methuselah]

30 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

MIA, very interesting.  Sea ice has melted from bottom up not top down due to oceanic cycles of which the last pulse had ended.  We have seen this year incredible and date record cold in swathes of Canada and Russia, the air is still darn cold.  We now see widespread real cold temperatures spreading into the northern continents......so this recovery of ice is no surprise as the warm cycle has ended.

 

BFTP

Come on, Fred...You've been saying that (or was that about Solar cycles -- keeping-up with the ever-moving goalposts does get a tad confusing!) since 2003...?

But, if anyone really wants to know just where these claims come from, they'd better pay a visit to Piers Corbyn's website...Piers is to science as Jeremy is to fiscal responsibility?

Edited October 29, 2019 by Ed Stone

[Sceptical]

17 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Come on, Fred...You've been saying that (or was that about Solar cycles -- keeping-up with the ever-moving goalposts does get a tad confusing!) since 2003...?

But, if anyone really wants to know just where these claims come from, they'd better pay a visit to Piers Corbyn's website...Piers is to science as Jeremy is to fiscal responsibility?

Didn't Piers Corbyn claim to be able to predict earthquakes with his feet?

Or was that his brother Jeremy Corbyn.

[Katrine Basso]

Steady increases in snow cover.

[JeffC]

8 hours ago, Sceptical said:

Didn't Piers Corbyn claim to be able to predict earthquakes with his feet?

Or was that his brother Jeremy Corbyn.

I think it's Jeremy and he can predict landslides in the opposite direction to himself!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

9 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Come on, Fred...You've been saying that (or was that about Solar cycles -- keeping-up with the ever-moving goalposts does get a tad confusing!) since 2003...?

But, if anyone really wants to know just where these claims come from, they'd better pay a visit to Piers Corbyn's website...Piers is to science as Jeremy is to fiscal responsibility?

Hmmmmm, Ice free by 2007, no 2012, no 2015.....we have 12 years to save the planet. Goal posts Pete.  But maybe everyone is learning more in their field as one progresses.  And no it’s no Corbyn btw but I am a believer of natural cycles driving the climate.  I take it you won’t be voting labour then

Anyway this isn’t the CC thread so I shouldn’t have posted my thoughts as it quickly can derail things

BFTP

[Midlands Ice Age]

9 hours ago, Katrine Basso said:

Steady increases in snow cover.

US NIC as posted by Katrine above.. Thanks

Shows ice has 'consolidated'. A large loss in Kara  (yesterday was very extreme), and a largish rise in Laptev/ESS.

Most other areas except the CAA seem to have lost a small amount of ice.

I expect hardly any change to the overall totals on todays Masie.

MIA

[Midlands Ice Age]

3 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Hmmmmm, Ice free by 2007, no 2012, no 2015.....we have 12 years to save the planet. Goal posts Pete.  But maybe everyone is learning more in their field as one progresses.  And no it’s no Corbyn btw but I am a believer of natural cycles driving the climate.  I take it you won’t be voting labour then

Anyway this isn’t the CC thread so I shouldn’t have posted my thoughts as it quickly can derail things

BFTP

BFTP..

It is very difficult to keep CC out of the discussion since it would appear that the Arctic ice pack is undergoing a  period  when things appear to be changing.

No one thinks things are static. Change is occurring all the time in our climate.

The real  question is how much of each 'element' is holding an upper hand at a particular point in time.

My feeling is that the Arctic ice sheet formation this year is showing differences, but it is too early yet to form any idea as to what is causing the change.

I promise I will try to keep CC out of my evaluation  as to what is unfolding.

After Catacols points above I felt it could be useful to show the latest ice status by reference to the ASIF.

They use  JAXA as their data provider, but the trends are the same as Masie. 

The data is that of yesterday...

MIA

                 

Edited October 30, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[Sugarloaf80]

3 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Hmmmmm, Ice free by 2007, no 2012, no 2015.....we have 12 years to save the planet. Goal posts Pete.  But maybe everyone is learning more in their field as one progresses.  And no it’s no Corbyn btw but I am a believer of natural cycles driving the climate.  I take it you won’t be voting labour then

Anyway this isn’t the CC thread so I shouldn’t have posted my thoughts as it quickly can derail things

BFTP

I haven't seen any science that says no ice by 2007, 2012 or 2015 so no goalposts haven't moved  However, there is an increasing likelihood as the earth continues to warm and the arctic continues to warm much faster than everywhere else.  12 years means if we don't make massive reductions in emissions we risk reaching tipping points where we cannot limit the warming any longer as other positive feedback loops kick in.  Arctic sea ice is actually declining faster than anticipated by the IPCC reports and models.  

If you are going to make grand claims they should be backed up and agree that this probably belongs in a different thread.

 

[Methuselah]

13 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

BFTP..

It is very difficult to keep CC out of the discussion since it would appear that the Arctic ice pack is undergoing a  period  when things appear to be changing.

No one thinks things are static. Change is occurring all the time in our climate.

The real  question is how much of each 'element' is holding an upper hand at a particular point in time.

My feeling is that the Arctic ice sheet formation this year is showing differences, but it is too early yet to form any idea as to what is causing the change.

I promise I will try to keep CC out of my evaluation  as to what is unfolding.

After Catacols points above I felt it could be useful to show the latest ice status by reference to the ASIF.

They use  JAXA as their data provider, but the trends are the same as Masie. 

The data is that of yesterday...

MIA

                 

All seems normal to me, MIA -- the Arctic sea-ice is beginning its eighteenth successive 'recovery' in eighteen successive Autumn refreeze cycles...? & 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

8 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

All seems normal to me, MIA -- the Arctic sea-ice is beginning its eighteenth successive 'recovery' in eighteen successive Autumn refreeze cycles...? & 

LOL.... Thanks Ed.

I think it is not a normal  'refreeze'  judging by the last 10years, in the way it is developing..

However time will tell......

 

On to todays Masie.

A very small total increase (for the last 3 weeks daily figures) of +48K Km2.

Kara,  today (and much to my surprise!) recorded a 2K gain.  I really did think a loss was probable ...

The US 'Arctic' showed losses for the second day running. Beaufort(-40K) and Chukchi(-4K). I am a bit disappointed that Beaufort has retracted back again. Perhaps the next cold burst will make the breakthrough to Barrow. 

Baffin increased today (+5k), and the CAA (+20K), so it could be that the late freeze up there has started.

Greenland (-8K) and Barents(-17K) retreated back a little on the 'western Atlantification', but as suggested Laptev (+32K) and ESS(+64K) continued their relentless march towards total ice coverage..

Central Arctic increased again (+4K), this more or less leaves only the ice around Svalbard to start to freeze and the whole of the area above 80 degrees north will be covered very shortly.

So overall,  a new pattern of the ice freezing much more quickly in the Atlantic, (first time for about 10 years), but not freezing as quickly on the Pacific front as many of those same years, is maintained..

Lets see what happens next - as I sure have no idea where this is leading.

MIA

 

 

[Catacol]

Still not seeing anything remarkable other than the remarkable level of below average coverage. The refreeze is faster because there is more water to refreeze....and still in some places the refreeze has barely impacted yet. 

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

1 hour ago, Catacol said:

Still not seeing anything remarkable other than the remarkable level of below average coverage. The refreeze is faster because there is more water to refreeze....and still in some places the refreeze has barely impacted yet. 

 

Catacol…

 

Its only Oct 30th yet,  not Nov 5th, but the excitement is on the other side of the Arctic on the Atlantic front, where the fireworks are going off in Kara, Laptev and the ESS (western section).. Shortly, I suspect, that Barents will follow suite.

This has not happened this early on the Atlantic for at least 5 years.

The Pacific side was also slow last year. The ice freeze this year has,  despite this, been at a remarkably quick rate after a slow start. Remember that there is still a lot of open seas in areas that are expected soon to start the  refreeze, so the ice could well keep growing at a fast rate now..( I am talking about Bering, the CAA, Greenland, ESS and  Chukchi ).

AND all this despite the temperature of the Arctic being an average of 3C above normal.

 

 

Click and zoom on the above and you will see  the ice has extended well below the 80 degrees latitude circle, also note that the ice  will move in from the west (along the coastline), where the ice pack is only about 200 miles away, judging by the last three years.

I will make s special point of it when the ice finally reaches Barrow.

MIA

 

Edited October 30, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

Morning all

US NIC this morning shows more of the same for sea ice.

I expect a gain of around +150K km2 later on.

Big gains in Kara again this morning, where it will soon be reaching Novaya Zemlya (NZ). ESS and Laptev now only have a small gap left to fill. Gains in the CAA  and really for the first time in Baffin, with Greenland and Barents also continued steady growth. 

The one exception to all this is Beaufort, where another quite large fall occurred.!! (See post above for the background).

Snow has expanded rapidly westward across Russia and as reported by KW yesterday is now moving into Eastern Europe.

The snow line has however moved northwards in Asia more generally, and also has moved back from the Pacific.

MIA

 

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

Back a little late with the Masie update...

As suggested above an increase in extent of the Arctic to 7,719K Km2, up by a moderate (+169K Km2) - however still approx. 70K Km2 above daily normal at this time of year (Day 303).

 

Catacol is correct that so far the extent is nothing special.  - Just looking at the numbers.

However, the way in which it is developing is totally different from anything seen over the last 10 - 15 years.

2 weeks ago extent was nearly 1,500K Km2 below the 2010 averages. These has been 'pared' back by about a half.

In about a weeks time (possibly less) we have moved up by a further place to third lowest and we will be within sight of the rest of the pack.

(see below for more data on rates of re-freeze). 

As per the last 3 days the Beaufort has again dropped  (-26K), and I am very surprised by this, but it looks as though it has been driven by local tide and wind data.   Again Chukchi dropped only slightly (-3K).

All other sea areas increased....   (Once again).

ESS(+25K), Laptev(+39) and Kara(+63K) continued their re-icing.

In addition Barents (+26K) resolved yesterdays lower figures and looks as though it could now encircle Svalbard. This only happened in February last year.  (see  below for some timescales of current freezing levels).

Greenland(+7K) and Baffin(+12K) reflected lower temperatures in the area. The CAA also added(+22K) and the Central Arctic a further (+6K).

So all the other areas except for those that Catacol identified are increasing in ice, and I submit that they are growing much more quickly than normal.

Some data -

ESS and Laptev are this year about 3-5 days ahead  of last year. Kara is about 6 days, whereas Barents is about 26 days ahead. The closer to the Atlantic the quicker has the refreeze been, Greenland is about 3 days ahead. Bering started freezing about 6 days ago, but last year it had not started, and  it did not reach todays levels until 13 days time. (Last year was a very bad year for Bering, so nothing to be proud of here).

Beaufort and Chukchi are well behind  (15 days). Other areas are on a par with last year (or in outlaying areas slightly above )

I still am expecting the US areas to achieve a 'catch up' in the next couple of weeks.

I can still see this year ending as a good year for Arctic extent, with much increased Atlantic areas; a normal Pacific outcome will end up as a large gain for total ice. 

MIA

Latest DMI temperature index shows quite a large drop tonight.

  

 

 

 

Edited October 31, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[SteveB]

Fantastic stuff MIA, love hearing your updates.

[ArHu3]

9 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Back a little late with the Masie update...

As suggested above an increase in extent of the Arctic to 7,719K Km2, up by a moderate (+169K Km2) - however still approx. 70K Km2 above daily normal at this time of year (Day 303).

 

Catacol is correct that so far the extent is nothing special.  - Just looking at the numbers.

However, the way in which it is developing is totally different from anything seen over the last 10 - 15 years.

 

  

 

 

 

I just checked the sst, it looks very different from anything I have seen before : it almost looks like the jetstream is blocked by a small and very cold blob. Could this be the reason for the relatively rapid refreeze of the Atlantic?

 

[Norrance]

On 09/09/2019 at 19:03, damianslaw said:

How usual it is to see snow at such levels in Italy at this time of year.. quite unusual I would expect..

Not really unusual at Livigno I suspect. It is a ski resort with a good snow record and is 1800 mtrs asl.