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September 2019 C.E.T. and EWP contests


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3 hours ago, Scorcher said:

You could say the same about the warm weather, at one point it seemed it would go on for much longer. We could have recorded a notably warm second half of the month.

Under 14C would not be a fair reflection of how this month has felt- particularly further south where there has been a lot of warm sunshine.

Also 27.4C in Anglesey doesn't happen every September- very impressive!

No it doesn't reflect the  the country, it accurately reflects the CET zone, which is what the competition is about, being 1 day away from getting a bang on the nose outright win is a bit different from saying, 'if only it would have been an exceptionally mild last 2 weeks then a 1.5c out prediction would have been correct'

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The GFS is going downhill fast ... here's proof ...

Below is the estimate of the CET over the next 10 days based on the 06z GFS The first graph is the provisional data and forecast with daily max, min, mean and the rolling CET, as well as th

13.4 to the 1st 1.6c below the 61 to 90 average 2.0c below the 81 to 10 average ________________________________ Current high this month 13.4 to the 1st Current low this month

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7 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No it doesn't reflect the  the country, it accurately reflects the CET zone, which is what the competition is about, being 1 day away from getting a bang on the nose outright win is a bit different from saying, 'if only it would have been an exceptionally mild last 2 weeks then a 1.5c out prediction would have been correct'

I really don't understand what you're trying to say. I wasn't referring to the competition anyway as I haven't entered it for years. You can always look at what might have been either way, warm or cold. That's what I was saying.

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Just now, Scorcher said:

I really don't understand what you're trying to say. I wasn't referring to the competition anyway as I haven't entered it for years. You can always look at what might have been either way, warm or cold. That's what I was saying.

Yes but that's what i am saying, you always seem to massively exaggerate warmth or warm potential but then at other times moan about the weather being too cold in Britain so you cannot have it both ways.

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Sunny Sheffield up to 13.6C -0.7C below normal. Rainfall 59.6mm 91.1% of normal. Looking like it's going to be an average month temperature wise and now a wet one.

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Its gone up again to 14.5, if it would have stayed the same, my 13.8 with a huge downward correction would still have had a slim chance with a 12.5 and a 13c day still possible sunday and monday but i fear now that's it, the most each cold day will knock it down now is 0.1 at the very most at this stage of the year and there is still going to be another 15c on Saturday punctuating the cold days, so looking now for a 0.2c error hopefully.

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Latest EWP was 64 mm by 24th with at least 6 mm added on 25th, and looks like 30-40 mm potential now in the time remaining. Will set the new provisional at 105 mm which makes nn2013 most likely dual contest winner. Don't have time today to scramble the excel file but from raw data just input, this would be the annual scoring (top 20 listed)

 1 _ Born From The Void ____74.4

 2 _ Reef ________________ 69.8

 3 _ J10 _________________ 66.9

 4 _ weather-history ________65.5

 5 _ Don _________________61.3

 6 _ DR(S)NO ____________ 60.2

 7 _ seaside60 ____________59.9

 8 _ EdStone _____________59.5

 9 _ Mulzy _______________ 58.2

10 _ Stargazer ___________ 58.0

11 _ Daniel* ______________57.9

12 _ Feb1991Blizzard ______56.2

t13 _JeffC, Kirkcaldy Wx ____55.4

t15 _Godber1, CPS, StatFr __54.8

18 _ Midlands Ice Age _____ 54.2

19 _ DiagonalRedLine _____ 54.1

20 _ Norrance ____________53.4

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Sunny Sheffield up to 13.7C -0.5C below average, Rainfall 67.3mm 102.9% of the monthly average. So heading for well above average rainfall and average or above temperatures which ten days ago looked extremely unlikely. 

Edited by The PIT
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With another couple of mild days ahead with very mild minima more so than maxima, we might just about creep up to 14.7 degrees by Sunday with a slight drop expected on Sunday and Monday thanks to cooler maxima and much cooler minima, a finish of 14.5 or 14.6 degrees most likely, before any downward corrections. A very average month overall.

Interesting to note the last appreciably colder than average September in 2015 was followed by the exceptional mild winter. I don't remember the weather of Sept 2015 that much, there must have been alot of polar air about that month and possibly high pressure overhead bringing cool nights.

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Here in cold/cloudy  Edmonton we are at 12.0c which is +0.6 above average..this is the first month since Jan that has been trending above normal..that will fall though as the last days will be well below normal

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5 hours ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

How often has it been cooler at the start only for it to warm up during the month ?‍♂️

Almost impossible to get through a calendar month with at least one warm Tm or Continental tropical spell which more than off-sets what cooler Pm daytime or Nightime air (as per this month) we experience...it seems to me!

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In the daily EWP records (which begin in 1931) there are only two Septembers that were below 30 mm at mid-month and ended up over 90 mm at end of the month:

September 1999 had a dry first thirteen days totalling 10.8 mm and added 9.7 on 14th-15th to reach 20.5 mm at the halfway point. The second half was very wet and the month ended at 124.9 mm.

September 2000 was similar except that it added too much on 14th-15th to a small previous total, and was over 37 mm on its way to 132.6 mm.

Then September 2012 had a similar pattern to this year as well. The total was only 12 mm at the halfway point and 23 mm as late as the 22nd. From there it ballooned to a final total of 92.8 mm (23rd to 25th had over 20 mm each day).  

The highest percentage of monthly rainfall in the second half was in Sept 2007 when 93% of the rain fell in the second half, but this was a relatively dry month. In Sept 1991 which had a fairly average total of 64.9 mm, only 9 mm of that fell in the first fifteen days, so about 85% fell in the second half. For the CEP series which I have on excel file, the percentage was 95.5% (second half rainfall in 1991). The second place month in that stat was 90% in Sept 2007. 

 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Sunny Sheffield still at 13.8C -0.2C below normal. Rainfall 75.5mm 115.4% of the monthly average. Well a normal temperature wise but wet month overall coming up. A strange month where the average temperature will be very close to what it started at. Temperature wise the month has been in reverse so a warming trend rather than a cooling one.

Edited by The PIT
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