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September 2019 C.E.T. and EWP contests


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The GFS is going downhill fast ... here's proof ...

Below is the estimate of the CET over the next 10 days based on the 06z GFS The first graph is the provisional data and forecast with daily max, min, mean and the rolling CET, as well as th

13.4 to the 1st 1.6c below the 61 to 90 average 2.0c below the 81 to 10 average ________________________________ Current high this month 13.4 to the 1st Current low this month

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EWP stuck on 23 mm through today I would think (to 18th for sure, 19th was dry) and GFS (two versions checked) looks rather wet although I notice that much of that rain has to fall from fronts associated with former hurricane Humberto, and what if that's more wind and less rain? Then the 50-60 mm shown on these charts could back down to more like 30. So for now I won't work on the excel file, will wait and see what we actually get Monday and Tuesday then make some changes and post for your info. Most of the current annual leaders will just separate more from the chase pack as they are all generally higher than the last provisional used. CheesepuffScott, Blast, DAVID SNOW and myself would sink down a few places if we go much past 50 mm. 

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14.1 to the 20th

0.1 above the 61 to 90 average

0.4c below the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 14.7 to the 4th

Current low this month 13.4 to the 1st

Edited by Summer Sun
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3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

14.1 to the 20h

0.1 above the 61 to 90 average

0.4c below the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 14.7 to the 4th

Current low this month 13.4 to the 1st

Blimey!   Still hasn't updated on mine, your back to full form in terms of updating, i beat you to it a few times lately, will be relying on your speed in winter when it comes to updating the 30 day forecasts, must be different browsers, i think you told me that before.

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13 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

EWP stuck on 23 mm through today I would think (to 18th for sure, 19th was dry) and GFS (two versions checked) looks rather wet although I notice that much of that rain has to fall from fronts associated with former hurricane Humberto, and what if that's more wind and less rain? Then the 50-60 mm shown on these charts could back down to more like 30. So for now I won't work on the excel file, will wait and see what we actually get Monday and Tuesday then make some changes and post for your info. Most of the current annual leaders will just separate more from the chase pack as they are all generally higher than the last provisional used. CheesepuffScott, Blast, DAVID SNOW and myself would sink down a few places if we go much past 50 mm. 

I take it my 67 is out the question, seen a few runs lately where i thought i might have had a chance, looks like i will still be around 10th or 11th.

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15 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

14.1 to the 20th

0.1 above the 61 to 90 average

0.4c below the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 14.7 to the 4th

Current low this month 13.4 to the 1st

Creeping up again now.  Going to be touch and go where we end up for September this year - average or above?

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1 minute ago, Don said:

Creeping up again now.  Going to be touch and go where we end up for September this year - average or above?

Touch and go this month pleasantly warm days followed by chilly nights has kept it closer to average day's not looking as high next week but nights milder with more cloud around

If I was to have a guess I'd say a range of 13.6c to 13.9c for the final figure 

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2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Touch and go this month pleasantly warm days followed by chilly nights has kept it closer to average day's not looking as high next week but nights milder with more cloud around

If I was to have a guess I'd say a range of 13.6c to 13.9c for the final figure 

13.9c would be good.  I wonder why? ? Seriously, though, I think 13.6c to 13.9c is probably sensible after final adjustments.  That would make it the third September on the trot to be near average.

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6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Think it will be higher than that Gavin, around 14.2-14.5 IMO.

It will probably be in that range before corrections.  Depends on downward adjustments I suppose.

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5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Think it will be higher than that Gavin, around 14.2-14.5 IMO.

Aye, feb, I agree with you...And, if this morning's 06Z's anything to go by, the possible cold northerly will no' now be making much if any contribution...?

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

Will nae do much for my guess of 15C, though!:olddoh:

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Just now, Don said:

It will probably be in that range before corrections.  Depends on downward adjustments I suppose.

Yes, never seems to be a big correction when i need one though - 13.8 would give me my best ever, an outright win i believe as i was first in order of entry.

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Just now, Ed Stone said:

Aye, feb, I agree with you...And, if this morning's 06Z's anything to go by, the possible cold northerly will no' now be making much if any contribution...?

h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

Will nae do much for my guess of 15C, though!:olddoh:

Yes i think the potent Northerly now off the menu.

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13 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes i think the potent Northerly now off the menu.

It will be a similar situation this coming winter.  Just saying! ?

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Two points to add -- the EWP still poised to take a jump, and 67 mm is not entirely off the table by the looks of the (now) nine-day GFS accumulations which are generally above 40 mm. Remains to be seen. As to longer term northerlies on GFS, seems like many of them are muted or non-existent come the day, have seen quite a few in that time frame disappear this past year. We didn't get much surface warmth from the past few days of warm uppers, although yesterday and today will be fairly warm, not record breakers apparently. 

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7 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I take it my 67 is out the question, seen a few runs lately where i thought i might have had a chance, looks like i will still be around 10th or 11th.

Not that it makes much difference to your argument but your prediction is 69.8, weather-history has same CET as you (13.8) and 67 mm. I checked the scoring and your upward potential is probably just one or maybe two spots in the table for a perfect hit, most of the people ahead of you would gain some points too from the provisional scoring so your net gain would be fairly small except against Godber.1 who you might pass. You would likely pass CheesepuffScott. Everyone else ahead of you has a similar or wetter forecast and will be gaining some points from what is shown now. 

You two have some chance of scooping best overall forecast with those numbers. I will edit in other possible winners in that dual contest. 

Had a look, probably CET will be adjusted down far enough to rule out the 14s so your main competition comes from Mulzy (13.9, 66) and davehsug (13.9, 69). A slightly drier and warmer outcome might make first time forecaster East Lancs Rain (14.0, 50) our dual champ. There are some other good ones at 14.1 and 14.2. 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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3 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Not that it makes much difference to your argument but your prediction is 69.8, weather-history has same CET as you (13.8) and 67 mm. I checked the scoring and your upward potential is probably just one or maybe two spots in the table for a perfect hit, most of the people ahead of you would gain some points too from the provisional scoring so your net gain would be fairly small except against Godber.1 who you might pass. You would likely pass CheesepuffScott. Everyone else ahead of you has a similar or wetter forecast and will be gaining some points from what is shown now. 

You two have some chance of scooping best overall forecast with those numbers. I will edit in other possible winners in that dual contest. 

Thanks.

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While i went too high, for the yearly overall a result in the high 13's should keep me in the top 10 which is the aim (i finished 4th one year which was my highest but usually end up in the top 10). 

Edited by summer blizzard
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This is an update of a table posted in August about the average value of monthly maximum daily means (2019 ended up tied with 1995 for the highest average of June, July and August max and was second to 1947 in terms of the highest value exceeded in all months, 21.7 vs 21.8 for (July) 1947. 

Here's where we stand after 21st averaged 17.4 to become the warmest day of this month. 

(edit on 2nd Oct _ final numbers reduced that to 16.8, the table is now in final form). 

Rank _ Year ___ MAY __ JUN __ JUL __ AUG__ SEP ___Mean ___ 2019 ties with this

_01 __ 1868 ___ 20.4 __ 20.6 __ 23.2 __ 22.5 __ 21.1 ___ 21.56 _____ (23.5)

_02 __ 1947 ___ 20.8 __ 23.0 __ 21.8 __ 22.1 __ 18.8 ___ 21.30 _____ (22.2)

_03 __ 2006 ___ 17.4 __ 20.8 __ 24.5 __ 20.9 __ 21.4 ___ 21.00 _____ (20.7)

_04 __ 1911 ___ 17.9 __ 19.5 __ 23.4 __ 23.6 __ 19.8 ___ 20.84 _____ (19.9)

_05 __ 1780 ___ 21.2 __ 19.4 __ 21.2 __ 20.3 __ 21.8 ___ 20.78 _____ (19.6)

_06 __ 2005 ___ 18.3 __ 22.1 __ 22.0 __ 20.9 __ 20.4 ___ 20.74 _____ (19.4)

_07 __ 2003 ___ 18.9 __ 19.9 __ 22.7 __ 23.9 __ 17.1 ___ 20.50 _____ (18.2)

_08 __ 1781 ___ 20.0 __ 20.9 __ 20.8 __ 20.8 __ 19.5 ___ 20.40 _____ (17.7)

_09 __ 2016 ___ 17.8 __ 18.9 __ 23.5 __ 20.2 __ 21.3 ___ 20.34 _____ (17.4)

_10 __ 1995 ___ 16.5 __ 20.3 __ 23.4 __ 24.9 __ 16.5 ___ 20.32 _____ (17.3)

_11 __ 2019 ___ 15.7 __ 21.7 __ 25.2 __ 21.7 __ 16.8 ___ 20.22 _____ (16.8)

_12 __ 1834 ___ 18.0 __ 21.8 __ 22.3 __ 19.9 __ 18.3 ___ 20.06 _____ (16.0)

_13 __ 2001 ___ 17.6 __ 21.9 __ 23.0 __ 21.0 __ 16.8 ___ 20.06 _____ (16.0)

_14 __ 1846 ___ 16.7 __ 22.0 __ 21.6 __ 21.7 __ 18.1 ___ 20.02 _____ (15.8)

_15 __ 1858 ___ 18.9 __ 22.9 __ 20.7 __ 19.9 __ 17.6 ___ 20.00 _____ (15.7)

_16 __ 2009 ___ 16.6 __ 21.4 __ 22.5 __ 19.8 __ 19.7 ___ 20.00 _____ (15.7)

=================================================================

Interesting that there is no year between 1911 and 1995 in this top sixteen table except 1947. 

This year is now tied for 9th for average max in the five warmest months with 2016.

2006 attained its third place ranking on today's date with the record high of 21.4 for this date, also a latest of season exceptional record (no higher values later in the autumn). Today might have stood some chance of breaking a daily record on the 23rd when it is in the mid-18s (1956). 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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27 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

While i went too high, for the yearly overall a result in the high 13's should keep me in the top 10 which is the aim (i finished 4th one year which was my highest but usually end up in the top 10). 

I Was hoping for a top 10 in both competitions but would need to be very solid in Rainfall (possible) but also pretty spot on in the remaining CET's, my last 2 have been 0.1 and 0.2 out but had such a bad start with a crippling February that i put myself behind the 8 ball and have played catch up ever since, i was 4tg in the rainfall at one stage but while ive improved in CET lately i have gone backwards in Rainfall, the story of my year has been that i can't seem to string some consistent performances together and combine both.

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Sunny Sheffield edges up to 13.5C -1.1C below average. Rainfall Unchanged. This mild nights may push the average up a bit as the day time temps will be below average and offset the milder nights somewhat.

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We have had some lovely weather however with cool/cold nights offsetting the warmer day temps.

This change of pattern I think will lift the CET, it was 17c this morning compared to 7c most of last week.

In fact personally here it will be warmer this week than last week, with temps 5 to 10c higher at night, ie back to normal.

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