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September 2019 C.E.T. and EWP contests


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The GFS is going downhill fast ... here's proof ...

Below is the estimate of the CET over the next 10 days based on the 06z GFS The first graph is the provisional data and forecast with daily max, min, mean and the rolling CET, as well as th

13.4 to the 1st 1.6c below the 61 to 90 average 2.0c below the 81 to 10 average ________________________________ Current high this month 13.4 to the 1st Current low this month

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55 minutes ago, DR(S)NO said:

Ah sugar... completely forgot to enter 

guessing I’m too late Roger but if not

ill go for 

14.4c and 90mm please

No you're fine, three days before we cut off entries so you're on two days late both contests.The penalties are about the same bite as missing by three or four spots so if your forecasts are close, you'll do okay.

Will add to the table, just thinking of giving you a shout when I saw no forecast for the September table. 

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Looks like a cool start to the month, with the 06z GFS putting the CET around 13.3C for the first third of the month. If accurate, this would be the 3rd coldest first 10 days in the last 30 years, beaten only by 2015 and 1992, which were both 12.6C to the 10th.

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(reposting this table of entries now that absolute deadline has passed)

 

Table of entries for September 2019

____________________________________________

__ order of entries in brackets

__ L stands for late, number with L gives number of late days, then order of those entries __

 

CET __ EWP __ Forecaster _______________ CET __ EWP __ Forecaster

 

19.0 __200.0___ Lettucing gutted (2) _______ 14.2 __ 82.0 ___ JeffC (9

16.5 __ 91.0 ___ syed2878 (35) ___________ 14.2 __ 67.0 ___ DiagonalRedLine (21)

16.3 __ ----- ___ Earthshine (49) ___________ 14.2 __ ----- ___ Jonathan F. (28)

15.9 __ 60.0 ___ Polar Gael (8) ____________ 14.2 __ 73.2 ___ 1989-2018 average

15.8 __ 34.2 ___ Roger J Smith (10) ________ 14.1 __ 67.0 ___ emmett garland (22)

15.5 __ 46.2 ___ CheesepuffScott (11) _______14.1 __ ----- ___ Beet (45)

15.2 __ 20.0 ___ Blast from the Past (L1-2) ___14.1 __ 88.0 ___ Stationary Front (52)

15.1 __ 47.9 ___ ChrisBell not the wxman (14) _14.1 __ ----- ___ Damianslaw (59)

15.0 __ 75.0 ___ EdStone (31) _____________ 14.0 __ 50.0 ___ East Lancs Rain (30)

15.0 __150.0___ stewfox (L3-1) _____________14.0 __ ----- ___ Quicksilver1989 (50)

14.9 __ ----- ___ dancerwithwings (20) _______ 14.0 __ 77.2 ___ 1981-2010 average

14.9 __ 49.0 ___ DAVID SNOW (42) ________ 13.9 __ 76.0 ___ virtualsphere (26)

14.8 __ 64.0 ___ stargazer (12) ____________ 13.9 __ 66.0 ___ Mulzy (54)

14.8 __ ----- ___ Mark Bayley (32) __________ 13.9 __ 95.0 ___ Don (55)

14.8 __ ----- ___ Matty007 (L1-1) ___________ 13.9 __ 69.0 ___ davehsug (57)

14.7 __103.8___ Kirkcaldy Weather (6) ______ 13.8 __ 69.8 ___ Feb1991Blizzard (33)

14.7 __ ----- ___ Relativistic (16) ____________13.8 __ 67.0 ___ weather-history (36)

14.7 __ ----- ___ Man with Beard (41) ________13.8 __ 85.0 ___ Daniel* (40)

14.6 __ 58.0 ___ bobd29 (7) _______________13.8 __ 80.0 ___ Born from the Void (47)

14.6 __ 92.0 ___ jonboy (25) _______________13.7 __ 85.0 ___ philglossop (15)

14.6 __ 98.0 ___ coldest winter (43) _________ 13.7 __ 77.0 ___ timmytour (34)

14.6 __ 85.0 ___ J10 (56) _________________ 13.6 __ 97.0 ___ I Remember Atlantic 252 (19)

14.5 __ 45.0 ___ Leo97t (13)  ______________ 13.6 __ ----- ___ ProlongedSnowLover (23)

14.5 __ ----- ___ summer blizzard (24)________13.6 __ 95.0 ___ Norrance (46)

14.5 __ 80.0 ___ The PIT (37) ______________13.5 __ ----- ___ sundog (29)

14.5 __ 40.0 ___ Freeze (58) _______________13.4 __ ----- ___ Kentish Man (51)

14.4 __ 72.1 ___ Midlands Ice Age (5) ________13.2 __ 74.0 ___ weather26 (1)

14.4 __ ----- ___ snowray (18) ______________ 13.0 __108.0___brmbrmcar (27)

14.4 __ ----- ___ Summer Sun (38) ___________12.9 __ ----- ___ Walsall Wood Snow (44)

14.4 __ 85.0 ___ Reef (48) _________________12.9 __200.0___ Thundershine (53)

14.4 __ ----- ___ Duncan McAlister ( L1-4 ) ____ 12.8 __ 56.0 ___ Godber1 (39)

14.4 __ 90.0 ___ DR(S)NO _ (L2-1) __________12.4 __129.0___ Let It Snow! (4)

14.3 __ 68.0 ___ seaside60 (L1-3) ___________11.7 __156.0___ SteveB (26)

14.3 __ 77.0 ___ consensus forecasts _______

14.2 __110.0___ nn2013 (3) ________________

 

 

 

65 forecasts (59 on time, 4 are one day late, one each for two and three days late) __ consensus 14.3.

======================================================================

 

EWP entries in order

200 LG, Thun ..156 Ste .. 150 stew (+3d) .. 129 LIS .. 110 nn .. 108 brm .. 103.8 KW .. 98 cw .. 97 IRAtl .. 95 Norr, Don

 92 jon .. 91 syed .. 90 DRS (+2d) .. 88 SF .. 85 phil, dan, Reef, J10 .. 82 Jeff .. 80 Pit, BFTV .. 77.2 89-18  .. 77 tim con ..

 76 vir ... 75 EdS .. 74 wx26 .. 73.2 81-10 .. 72.1 MIA .. 69.8 Feb91 .. 69 dave .. 68 sea60 (+1d) .. 67 DRL, emm, w-h .. 66 .. mul

 64 star .. 60 PG .. 58 bob .. 56 Godb .. 50 ELR .. 49 DSN .. 47.9 cbnot .. 46.2 CPS .. 45 Leo .. 40 Freeze

 34.2 RJS .. 20 BFTP (+1d)

__ 47 forecasts, 2 are one day late, one each at 2, 3 days late __ consensus is 77 mm. 

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EWP had 6 mm in the account as of 3rd, and the addition for the 4th appears to be 0.5 to 1 mm. The ten day GFS projection is around 20 mm to 15th, and from charts now available it looks dry from day 11 to 16 (21st). That only brings the EWP to about 27 mm with a week and a bit left in the month. It also looks increasingly warm compared to average going further into the month. The average thickness appears to be close to 558 dm. This suggests a +2 anomaly, combined with current near normal to 5th, a +1.5 anomaly by the 21st. Could be into the low or mid 15s by then.  

Edited by Roger J Smith
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2 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Chilly Pit, I’ve noticed a proper chill in the air during early morning dog walks

 

BFTP

Inverse of what happened at the start of last month which was similarly over average in the first five days. However local forecast shows low temps for the next six days so it isn't going to go up much.

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23 hours ago, The PIT said:

Sunny Sheffield at 13.8C -2.2C below average. Rainfall 5.1mm 7.8% of the monthly average.

5 mm?! Currently had 42 mm so far here this September according to a local weather website, been raining most of the week. Amazing how much difference the Pennines make. Also been very cool, very cloudy and quite windy this week with only 17 hours of sun so far.

http://www.higham-weather.com/

 

I've just had a look on your weather website and it says it's 21.9° and 37% humidity in your house. Is that true? How come it's so warm and dry? Have you got the heating on?

I'd love that temp/humid combo in my house but instead it's chilly and damp - much like the climate of East Lancs. It's currently 17.5° with 68% humidity in my bedroom - was above 70% before I opened the window. Been wearing a thick hoodie all week.

 

Also that 13.8°C? Is that the average daytime temperature or just the average overall?

Edited by East Lancs Rain
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Sunny Sheffield back up to 13.7C, -2.1C below normal. Rainfall 5.5mm 8.4% of the monthly average.

East Lanc Rain 13.8 will be the average up to the 7th.  Rainfall is right unless somebodies going down the garden at night and emptying it. No tipping bucket just the old analogue manual way of doing things. 

The room is upstairs has a few pc's running full time and since I sound proofed it because the neighbors that added another 3C to the temperature. Right now it's 21.2C again but downstairs is 18C.

Edited by The PIT
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4 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Long way to go of course but I cant see the CET finishing below 14c atm, probably closer to 15c and dry too.

Wouldn't be good news for the coming winter.......

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