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Roger J Smith

September 2019 C.E.T. and EWP contests

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Slightly warmer and wetter than normal.

14.4C and 85mm

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Looking like a cool first half to this month bang on date...second half could bring more very warm Slys more especially the SE corner but maybe the jet may not allow that to happen this month with it looking stronger.

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13.9C and 95mm please.  Close to average temps and wetter than normal.

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A rather changeable month ahead I feel, a mix of everything - quite an active jetstream will make for mostly unsettled conditions, and sometimes quite chilly cool conditions. Possibility of another shot of warm air from the south during the second half of the month, albeit relatively shortlived.

A near average month masking some variations from notably cool to shortlived notable warmth. 14.1 degrees. Scotland could have quite a cool month though.

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Table of entries for September 2019

____________________________________________

__ order of entries in brackets

__ L stands for late, number with L gives number of late days, then order of those entries __

 

CET __ EWP __ Forecaster _______________ CET __ EWP __ Forecaster

 

19.0 __200.0___ Lettucing gutted (2) _______ 14.2 __ 82.0 ___ JeffC (9

16.5 __ 91.0 ___ syed2878 (35) ___________ 14.2 __ 67.0 ___ DiagonalRedLine (21)

16.3 __ ----- ___ Earthshine (49) ___________ 14.2 __ ----- ___ Jonathan F. (28)

15.9 __ 60.0 ___ Polar Gael (8) ____________ 14.2 __ 73.2 ___ 1989-2018 average

15.8 __ 34.2 ___ Roger J Smith (10) ________ 14.1 __ 67.0 ___ emmett garland (22)

15.5 __ 46.2 ___ CheesepuffScott (11) _______14.1 __ ----- ___ Beet (45)

15.2 __ 20.0 ___ Blast from the Past (L1-2) ___14.1 __ 88.0 ___ Stationary Front (52)

15.1 __ 47.9 ___ ChrisBell not the wxman (14) _14.1 __ ----- ___ Damianslaw (59)

15.0 __ 75.0 ___ EdStone (31) _____________ 14.0 __ 50.0 ___ East Lancs Rain (30)

15.0 __150.0___ stewfox (L3-1) _____________14.0 __ ----- ___ Quicksilver1989 (50)

14.9 __ ----- ___ dancerwithwings (20) _______ 14.0 __ 77.2 ___ 1981-2010 average

14.9 __ 49.0 ___ DAVID SNOW (42) ________ 13.9 __ 76.0 ___ virtualsphere (26)

14.8 __ 64.0 ___ stargazer (12) ____________ 13.9 __ 66.0 ___ Mulzy (54)

14.8 __ ----- ___ Mark Bayley (32) __________ 13.9 __ 95.0 ___ Don (55)

14.8 __ ----- ___ Matty007 (L1-1) ___________ 13.9 __ 69.0 ___ davehsug (57)

14.7 __103.8___ Kirkcaldy Weather (6) ______ 13.8 __ 69.8 ___ Feb1991Blizzard (33)

14.7 __ ----- ___ Relativistic (16) ____________13.8 __ 67.0 ___ weather-history (36)

14.7 __ ----- ___ Man with Beard (41) ________13.8 __ 85.0 ___ Daniel* (40)

14.6 __ 58.0 ___ bobd29 (7) _______________13.8 __ 80.0 ___ Born from the Void (47)

14.6 __ 92.0 ___ jonboy (25) _______________13.7 __ 85.0 ___ philglossop (15)

14.6 __ 98.0 ___ coldest winter (43) _________ 13.7 __ 77.0 ___ timmytour (34)

14.6 __ 85.0 ___ J10 (56) _________________ 13.6 __ 97.0 ___ I Remember Atlantic 252 (19)

14.5 __ 45.0 ___ Leo97t (13)  ______________ 13.6 __ ----- ___ ProlongedSnowLover (23)

14.5 __ ----- ___ summer blizzard (24)________13.6 __ 95.0 ___ Norrance (46)

14.5 __ 80.0 ___ The PIT (37) ______________13.5 __ ----- ___ sundog (29)

14.5 __ 40.0 ___ Freeze (58) _______________13.4 __ ----- ___ Kentish Man (51)

14.4 __ 72.1 ___ Midlands Ice Age (5) ________13.2 __ 74.0 ___ weather26 (1)

14.4 __ ----- ___ snowray (18) ______________ 13.0 __108.0___brmbrmcar (27)

14.4 __ ----- ___ Summer Sun (38) ___________12.9 __ ----- ___ Walsall Wood Snow (44)

14.4 __ 85.0 ___ Reef (48) _________________12.9 __200.0___ Thundershine (53)

14.4 __ ----- ___ Duncan McAlister ( L1-4 ) ____ 12.8 __ 56.0 ___ Godber1 (39)

14.4 __ 90.0 ___ DR(S)NO _ (L2-1) __________12.4 __129.0___ Let It Snow! (4)

14.3 __ 68.0 ___ seaside60 (L1-3) ___________11.7 __156.0___ SteveB (26)

14.3 __ 77.0 ___ consensus forecasts _______

14.2 __110.0___ nn2013 (3) ________________

 

 

 

65 forecasts (59 on time, 4 are one day late, one each for two and three days late) __ consensus 14.3.

======================================================================

 

EWP entries in order

200 LG, Thun ..156 Ste .. 150 stew (+3d) .. 129 LIS .. 110 nn .. 108 brm .. 103.8 KW .. 98 cw .. 97 IRAtl .. 95 Norr, Don

 92 jon .. 91 syed .. 90 DRS (+2d) .. 88 SF .. 85 phil, dan, Reef, J10 .. 82 Jeff .. 80 Pit, BFTV .. 77.2 89-18  .. 77 tim con ..

 76 vir ... 75 EdS .. 74 wx26 .. 73.2 81-10 .. 72.1 MIA .. 69.8 Feb91 .. 69 dave .. 68 sea60 (+1d) .. 67 DRL, emm, w-h .. 66 .. mul

 64 star .. 60 PG .. 58 bob .. 56 Godb .. 50 ELR .. 49 DSN .. 47.9 cbnot .. 46.2 CPS .. 45 Leo .. 40 Freeze

 34.2 RJS .. 20 BFTP (+1d)

__ 47 forecasts, 2 are one day late, one each at 2, 3 days late __ consensus is 77 mm. 

_______________________________________________________________________

Edited by Roger J Smith

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A split Situation with decent spells of warm days for the south , always cooler more showery further north.  So for CET zone a dryer than average month and warmer.  15.2c and 20mm

BFTP

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1 hour ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

A split Situation with decent spells of warm days for the south , always cooler more showery further north.  So for CET zone a dryer than average month and warmer.  15.2c and 20mm

BFTP

You probably know this anyway but thought i would just point it out, you do know that the precipitation competition is for the whole of England and wales, so includes Cornwall, Wales, and parts of England like Liverpool, Blackpool and Preston in what can be a Westerly month?, you sure you don't want to reconsider your EWP forecast?

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Forgot on time again.

Well it would be rude not to take the average temp going begging, lol..

14.3c

68mm

 

Edited by seaside 60

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1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

You probably know this anyway but thought i would just point it out, you do know that the precipitation competition is for the whole of England and wales, so includes Cornwall, Wales, and parts of England like Liverpool, Blackpool and Preston in what can be a Westerly month?, you sure you don't want to reconsider your EWP forecast?

Thanks Feb I didn’t take that note but no I’ll keep a generally dry month for me, 

 

BFTP

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Daily and cumulative normals for CET in September (1981-2010) with daily extremes 1772-2018

 

Date __ CET __ cum ____ max _____ min (records 1772-2018) ___ Extremes of daily running CET

 

01 ___ 15.4 __ 15.4 ___ 21.8 (1780,1906) __ 7.1 (1816) __________ 21.8 (1780,1906) __ 7.1 (1816)

02 ___ 15.4 __ 15.4 _____ 22.6 (1906) __ 7.6 (1816) _____________ 22.2 (1906) ______ 7.4 (1816)

03 ___ 15.3 __ 15.4 _____ 20.2 (1880) __ 8.2 (1816,1908) ________ 21.4 (1906) ______ 7.6 (1816)

04 ___ 14.7 __ 15.2 _____ 20.7 (1880) __ 7.7 (1841) _____________20.2 (1906) ______ 7.9 (1816)

05 ___ 15.2 __ 15.2 _____ 22.4 (1949) __ 8.1 (1841) _____________19.3 (1906) ______ 8.2 (1816)

06 ___ 15.1 __ 15.2 _____ 20.8 (1898) __ 8.5 (1841) _____________19.0 (1906) ______ 8.4 (1816)

07 ___ 15.0 __ 15.1 _____ 21.1 (1868) __ 8.6 (1952) _____________19.0 (1906) ______ 9.1 (1816)

08 ___ 15.0 __ 15.1 _____ 21.3 (1898) __ 8.9 (1807,1931) ________ 18.7 (1898,1906) __ 9.6 (1816)

09 ___ 14,7 __ 15,1 _____ 19.8 (1898) __ 9.2 (1860,1912) ________ 18.5 (1898) _____ 10.0 (1816)

10 ___ 14.7 __ 15.0 _____ 19.2 (1865) __ 8.6 (1860) _____________18.2 (1898) _____ 10.3 (1816)

 

11 ___ 14.8 __ 15.0 _____ 20.3 (1999) __ 8.1 (1860) _____________ 18.1 (1865,1898) _ 10.4 (1816)

12 ___ 14.4 __ 15.0 _____ 20.4 (1945) __ 8.1 (1848) _____________ 18.2 (1865) _____ 10.6 (1816)

13 ___ 13.9 __ 14.9 _____ 20.7 (2016) __ 6.7 (1807) _____________ 18.2 (1865) _____ 10.8 (1816)

14 ___ 13.7 __ 14.8 _____ 21.3 (2016) __ 6.7 (1807) _____________ 18.1 (1865) _____ 10.9 (1931)

15 ___ 13.6 __ 14.7 ___ 18.8 (1947,2016) _ 7.9 (1986) ___________ 18.1 (1865) _____ 10.8 (1807)

16 ___ 13.7 __ 14.7 _____ 19.6 (1961) __ 8.1 (1807) _____________ 18.2 (1865) _____ 10.6 (1807)

17 ___ 13.8 __ 14.6 _____ 20.4 (1898) __ 8.1 (1807) _____________ 18.1 (1865) _____ 10.5 (1807)

18 ___ 13.9 __ 14.6 _____ 19.7 (1926) __ 6.9 (1807) _____________ 17.9 (1865) _____ 10.3 (1807)

19 ___ 13,6 __ 14,5 _____ 20.9 (1926) __ 7.4 (1952) _____________ 17.8 (1865) _____ 10.2 (1807)

20 ___ 14.0 __ 14.5 _____ 18.4 (1947) __ 6.8 (1919) _____________ 17.8 (1865) _____ 10.1 (1807)

 

21 ___ 13.7 __ 14.5 _____ 21.4 (2006) __ 6.5 (1872) _____________ 17.5 (1865) _____ 10.1 (1807)

22 ___ 13.8 __ 14.4 _____ 18.7 (1956) __ 6.3 (1872) _____________ 17.2 (1865) _____ 10.2 (1807)

23 ___ 13.5 __ 14.4 _____ 18.3 (1956) __ 6.0 (1773) _____________ 17.1 (1865,2006) _10.3 (1807)

24 ___ 12.8 __ 14.3 _____ 18.3 (2006) __ 6.7 (1872) _____________ 17.1 (2006) _____ 10.4 (1807)

25 ___ 12.7 __ 14.3 _____ 19.4 (1895) __ 7.4 (1812) _____________ 17.1 (2006) _____ 10.4 (1807)

26 ___ 12.8 __ 14.2 _____ 18.4 (1895) __ 6.0 (1885) _____________ 17.1 (2006) _____ 10.4 (1807)

27 ___ 12.9 __ 14.2 _____ 19.0 (1895) __ 6.1 (1824,1885) ________ 17.0 (2006) _____ 10.5 (1807)

28 ___ 13.2 __ 14.1 _____ 18.9 (2011) __ 4.9 (1824) _____________ 17.0 (2006) _____ 10.5 (1807)

29 ___ 13,1 __ 14,1 _____ 19.7 (2011) __ 5.5 (1918) _____________ 16.9 (2006) _____ 10.5 (1807)

30 ___ 12.8 __ 14.04 ____ 20.0 (2011) __ 6.3 (1808) _____________ 16.8 (2006) _____ 10.5 (1807)

 

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13.4 to the 1st

1.6c below the 61 to 90 average

2.0c below the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 13.4 to the 1st

Current low this month 13.4 to the 1st

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5 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

13.4 to the 1st

1.6c below the 61 to 90 average

2.0c below the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 13.4 to the 1st

Current low this month 13.4 to the 1st

Been a while since we’ve seen that type of deviation from the norm!

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4 hours ago, Don said:

Been a while since we’ve seen that type of deviation from the norm!

Aye, long may it remain so!

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