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September 2019 C.E.T. and EWP contests


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The GFS is going downhill fast ... here's proof ...

Below is the estimate of the CET over the next 10 days based on the 06z GFS The first graph is the provisional data and forecast with daily max, min, mean and the rolling CET, as well as th

13.4 to the 1st 1.6c below the 61 to 90 average 2.0c below the 81 to 10 average ________________________________ Current high this month 13.4 to the 1st Current low this month

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Sunny Sheffield 13.7C bang on average. So no change overall during the month. Rainfall 138.8mm 212.2% of the monthly average the 3rd wettest we have on record since 1955

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September Result
One player got it spot on this month seaside 60 with 10 players 0.1c out as per below. But as others have said, a lot of players very close to the correct score this month.

image.thumb.png.624e80600072565260854cbbcb930ae8.png

Seasonal
The Seasonal results very much match the September result.

image.thumb.png.655e405a6593cd0d0ce85343d8a640cd.png

Overall
No change in the Top 4. with Quicksilver1989 leading from The PIT, Stationery Front and BornFromTheVoid in 2,3,4.

image.thumb.png.27b29d9789cd90aee4079a59548db340.png

Excel Spreadsheet
Sept 19 CET.xlsx

Edited by J10
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Top eleven for September based on table of entries, as shown above (posting at same time I see) ... 

(not sure how to incorporate the late penalties here as they go onto an eventual complex annual scoring format, so take this with some flexibility as eventually some of the next batch might score equal or higher numbers of points). 

01 __ seaside60 _______ 14.3 (late one day) __ consensus also

02 __ nn2013 _________ 14.2 (3rd entry) _____ 

03 __ Midlands Ice Age __ 14.4 (5th entry)_____ 1989-2018 also

04 __ Jeff C ___________ 14.2 (9th entry)

05 __ snowray _________ 14.4 (18th entry)

06 __ DiagonalRedLine __14.2 (21st entry) 

07 __ Jonathan F. ______ 14.2 (28th entry) 

08 __ Summer Sun _____ 14.4 (38th entry)

09 __ Reef ____________ 14.4 (48th entry)

10 __ Duncan McAlister __14.4 (late one day)

11 __ DR(S)NO ________ 14.4 (late two days)

and four each had either 14.1 or 14.5 so by order of entries, they ranked

12th Leo97t (14.5), 13th Summer Blizzard (14.5), 14th Emmett Garland (14.1), 15th Pit (14.5),

16th Beet (14.1), 17th Stationary Front (14.1), 18th Freeze (14.5), 19th Damianslaw (14.1)

__ none of these were late so a few of them might end up with a higher rank than 10th or 11th with their late penalties.

__ looks like nn2013 captured the best combined forecast, will report on that when final numbers available for EWP.

=======================================================================

 

REPORT ON CONSENSUS and NORMALS SCORING for SEPTEMBER 2019

 

Dec 2018 _____________________________ Jan 2019 _____________________ Feb 2019 __________

____FORECAST _ error __ rank __ points ____ FCST __ error__ rank _ points _____ FCST __ error __ rank __ points

Consensus_ 5.0 __ -1.9 _ 32 to 32 _ 52.3 _____3.5 ___ -0.5 __16 to 18 _ 75.7 to 78.6 _ 4.0 __ -2.7 _ 33 to 37 _ 48.3 to 54.1

1989-2018*_4.9 __ -2.0 _ 33 to 33 _ 50.8 _____4.7 ___ +0.7 __21 to 23 _ 68.6 to 71.4 _ 4.9 __ -1.8 _ 14 to 14 _ 81.3

1981-2010__4.6 __ -2.3 _ 42 to 44 _ 33.8 to 36.9 _4.4 _ +0.4 __14 to 15 _ 80.0 to 81.4 _ 4.4 __ -2.3 _ 17 to 19 _ 74.2 to 77.0

 

March 2019 _____________________________ April 2019 _____________________ May 2019

____FORECAST _ error __ rank __ points _____FCST_error _ rank __ points _______ FCST _ error _ rank __ points

 consensus _ 6.9 _ --0.9 _ 29 to 33 _ 48.4 to 54.8 _8.4 _ --0.7 _ 24 to 28 _ 55.9 to 62.3 _ 12.3 _ +1.2 _ 28 to 31 _ 50.0-55.0

1989-2018 _ 6.8 __ --1.0 _ 34 to 35 _ 46.2 to 47.8 _8.8 _ --0.3 _ 9 to 13 _ 80.3 to 86.9 __ 12.0 _ +0.9 _ 17 to 20 _ 68.3 to 73.3

1981-2010 _ 6.6 __ --1.2 _ 39 to 39 _ 39.7 ______8.5 _ --0.6 _ 20 to 23 _ 63.9 to 68.6 __ 11.7 _ +0.6 _ 11 to 11 _ 83.3

 

June 2019 __________________________________ July 2019 ______________________ August 2019

____FORECAST __ error __ rank __ points _______ FCST _ error _ rank _ points ________ FCST _ error _ rank _ points

consensus _ 15.0 _ +0.8 _ 27 to 31 _ 48.1 to 55.0 __ 17.0 _ -0.5 _ 19-24 __ 62.9 to 71.0 ____17.0 _ --0.1 __ 3 to 13 __ 81.0 to 96.8

1989-2018 _ 14.6 _ +0.4 _ 11 to 15 _ 75.8 to 82.7 __ 16.9 _ -0.6 _ 25-30 __ 53.2 to 61.3 ____16.5 _ --0.6 __38 to 43 __ 33.6 to 41.5

1981-2010 _ 14.5 _ +0.3 __ 6 to 10 _ 84.4 to 91.3 __ 16.7 _ -0.8 _ 34-39 __ 38.7 to 46.8 ____16.4 _ --0.7 __44 to 44 __ 32.0 to 32.0

____________________________________________________________________________________________

 

September 2019 ______________________________________________ Average (10 months)

____FORECAST __ error __ rank __ points _________________________ abs err __ rank __ points

consensus ________ 0.0 _ 01 to 01_ 100.0 __________________________ 0.94 __ 21 to 24 _ 61.8 to 67.7

1989-2018 ________-0.1 _ 02 to 11 _ 84.6 to 98.5 _____________________0.84 __ 20 to 24 _ 66.4 to 69.5

1981-2010 ________-0.3 _ 20 to 25 _ 63.0 to 70.7 _____________________0.95 __ 26 to 28 _ 58.5 to 62.4

===========================================================================================

Despite a perfect consensus forecast, 1989-2018 stayed in the lead with a small error of 0.1 and 1981-2010 has fallen further behind in this contest. 

 

___________________________________________________

Edited by Roger J Smith
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EWP tracker has reached end of the month now, 124 mm (!!) is the verdict. Will post preliminary final scoring soon, not going to be much different from the 105 mm version posted a few days ago. Look for that to be edited into this post soon. 

Congratulations to Let It Snow! (129 mm) with the closest forecast and top points for September. Annual standings remain the same as last shown (for the top portion, Let It Snow! and SteveB gained a few spots with higher scores on this higher outcome.

The best combined forecast was from nn2013 who was second in CET and also in EWP.

Third place this month went to brmbrmcar. 

EWP20182019SEPb.xlsx

Edited by Roger J Smith
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2 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

EWP tracker has reached end of the month now, 124 mm (!!) is the verdict. Will post preliminary final scoring soon, not going to be much different from the 105 mm version posted a few days ago. Look for that to be edited into this post soon. 

That would be the wettest month since January 2016 for England and Wales. 

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With the final CET numbers in, I corrected the table shown on September 21 (p. 7 of thread) and 2019 finished 11th behind 1995 in the average monthly maximum daily CET May to September.

The average of 20.22 was 1.34 lower than the highest value on record in 1868 (21.56). 

____________________________

Also, this is the updated top 25 list for the EWP annual contest. I doubt that the tweaking of final numbers on 5th will change any scores as the final value could go down 4.5 mm or up 15.5 before we would have any changes in the order of scoring at all. It is usually set within 1 mm of the provisional. 

 1 _ Born From The Void ___74.0

 2 _ Reef _______________ 69.2

 3 _ J10 ________________ 66.3

 4 _ weather-history _______ 65.1

 5 _ Don ________________ 60.9

t 6_ DR(S)NO ____________59.5

t 6_ seaside60 ___________ 59.5

 8 _ EdStone _____________59.1

 9 _ Mulzy _______________ 57.8

10 _ Stargazer ___________ 57.6

11 _ Daniel* ______________57.3

12 _ Feb1991Blizzard ______55.7

t13 _JeffC _______________ 54.8

t13 _Kirkcaldy Wx _________54.8

15 _ Godber1 ____________ 54.6

16 _ CheesepuffScott ______ 54.4

17 _ Stationary Front _______54.2

18 _ Midlands Ice Age ______53.7

19 _ DiagonalRedLine ______53.4

20 _ Norrance ____________ 53.0

21 _ Blast from the Past ____ 52.5

22 _ The PIT _____________ 51.0

23 _ brmbrmcar ___________ 50.8

24 _ syed2878 ____________ 50.2

25 _ jonboy _______________49.0

Let it Snow is 26th after taking 10 points for September.. 

I will work on a combined CET-EWP rankings (with two months left in the contest year). Look for that later this week. 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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As earlier mentioned in the August thread, I accidentally missed the entry for seaside 60 for August. This has had a slight impact overall for the Top 10.

With seaside 60 now in 12th place overall instead of 23rd.

Thanks to Roger for spotting my error.

Sept 19 CET revised.xlsx

image.thumb.png.af6078f3ce20ef5766f67664e1a9921e.png

Edited by J10
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(here's why that missing forecast score for seaside60 was spotted, I was working my way through this table and found that seaside60 had entered all EWP but was shown with 9/10 for CET, which I thought must be unusual so I went back to look ... anyway, making mistakes in tables is not unknown in my own case, I keep amending them as I find them and don't always note the changes unless they have a big impact on somebody's scoring. Thanks J10 for clearing that up, 

Combined Ranks for CET and EWP contests

This table shows ranked positions of all regular entrants in CET contests, with their EWP ranking if they have entered any contests. In those cases where the numbers of contests entered are not the same, the combined rank is only given when the number of EWP contests entered is within two of the number of CET, otherwise, the rank is shown in brackets and not applied to the average ranking. This applies even in a case like nn2013 who entered 9 CET and 5 EWP.

Anyone who has entered fewer than 8/10 CET contests will not be ranked for CET therefore cannot be shown in this format even if they have an EWP rank higher than some forecasters shown here. The CET rank in brackets is a subgrouping within those who qualified for a combined rank. Those who play only (or mainly) CET contests are shown here but their positions are based on CET only, and they don't have an average rank although they appear in the order that their CET rank attains.

Just to explain using some examples ... Born from the Void has a rank of 4th in CET but 3rd among those who played enough EWP contests to attain an averaged rank. Summer Blizzard is 7th in CET and entered only one EWP contest which left him with a rank of T62, that's not counted as part of his overall rank which is found next to EdStone who has the average rank of 7th for being 6th in CET (5th among those who regularly enter EWP) and 8th in EWP. 

AVG RANK __ FORECASTER _____ CET rank __ EWP rank ___ played

__ --- _______ Quicksilver1989 ______ 1 _______ --- __________ 9, 0

___ 2.5 ______ Born From the Void __ 4 (3) _____ 1 __________ 10

___ 3.5 ______ Reef ______________ 5 (4) _____ 2 __________ 10

___ 7.0 ______Ed Stone ___________ 6 (5) _____ 8 __________ 10

___ ---- ______ summer blizzard _____ 7 _______ (T62) _______ 10, 1

___ 7.0 ______ Don _______________ 9 (6) _____ 5 __________ 10

___ ---- ______ Jonathan F. _________ 8 _______ --- __________10, 0

___ 8.5 ______ DR(S)NO __________ 11 (8) ____ t-6 _________ 10

___ 9.0 _____ seaside60 __________ 12 (9) _____t-6 _________ 10

___ 9.5 ______ Mulzy _____________ 10 (7) _____9 __________10

__ 10.0 ______ Stationary Front _____ 3 (2) _____ 17 _________ 10

__ 11.5 ______ Stargazer __________ 13 (10) ___ 10 _________ 10

__ 12.0 ______ The PIT ____________ 2 (1) _____22 _________ 10

__ 13.0 ______ weather-history ______22 (16) ____ 4 _________ 10

__ --- _______ Summer Sun ________ 14 _______ --- _________ 10, 0

__ 14.5 _____ Feb1991Blizzard ______17 (12) ___ 12 _________ 10

__ --- _______ Man with Beard ______ 16 _______ --- _________ 10, 0

__ 17.5 ______Norrance ___________ 15 (11) __ 20 __________ 10

__ 18.0 _____ J 10 ________________33 (22) ___ 3 __________ 10

__ 18.5 _____ Midlands Ice Age _____ 19 (14) __ 18 __________ 10

__ --- _______ damianslaw _________ 21 _____ --- ___________10, 0

__ 21.5 ______ CheesepuffScott ____t-27 (18) __ 16 __________ 10

__ 21.5 ______DiagonalRedLine ____ 24 (17) ___ 19 __________10

__ 23.0 ______ DAVID SNOW ______ 18 (13) ___ 28 __________10

__ --- ________ sundog ____________23 ______ --- ___________ 8, 0

__ 24.0 ______ Jeff C _____________ 35 (24) ___13 __________ 10

__ 25.0 ______ Kirkcaldy Weather ___ 36 (25) ___14 __________ 10

__ --- ________ Mark Bayley ________25 ______ --- ___________ 9, 0

__ 26.0 ______ daniel* ____________ 41 (28) ___ 11 __________10

__ --- ________ Duncan McAlister ___ 26 ______ --- ___________10,0

__ 26.5 ______ timmytour __________20 (15) ___33 __________ 10

__ --- ________ dancerwithwings ____t-27______ --- __________ 10, 0

__ 28.0 ______ virtualsphere _______ 29 (19) ___ 27 __________10, 9

__ --- ________ nn2013 ___________ 30  ______ (39) _________ 9, 5

__ 30.0 ______ Godber 1 __________ 45 (31) ___ 15 _________ 10, 9

__ 30.5 ______ Roger J Smith ______ 31 (20) ___ 30 __________ 10

__ 33.5 ______ weather26 _________ 32 (21) ___ 35 __________ 10

__ 34.0 ______ davehsug __________39 (27) ___ 29 __________ 10

__ 34.0 ______ Blast from the Past __ 47 (33) ___ 21 __________ 10

__ 34.5 ______ Bobd29 ___________ 38 (26) ___ 31 __________ 10

__ 35.0 ______ I Remember Atl 252 __34 (23) ___ 36 __________ 10

__ 35.0 ______ Let It Snow! ________ 44 (30) ___ 26 ___________ 9, 8

__ 35.5 ______ jonboy _____________46 (32) ___25 ___________ 9

__ 36.0 ______ syed2878 __________ 48 (34) ___24 ___________ 10

__ 36.0 ______ brmbrmcar _________ 49 (35) ___ 23 ___________ 10

__ --- ________ Leo97t ____________ 37 _______(47)__________ 9, 5

__ 37.5 ______ Steve B ____________43 (29) ___ 32 ___________9

__ --- ________ snowray ___________ 40 _______ --- _________ 10, 0

__ --- ________ Walsall Wood Snow __ 42 _______ --- _________ 10, 0

__ 43.5 ______ stewfox ____________ 50 (36) ___ 37 __________ 9

__ 43.5 ______ Polar Gael __________53 (37) ___ 34 __________ 10

__ --- ________ Earthshine __________51 _______(51)__________8, 2

__ --- ________ Kentish Man ________ 52 _______ --- __________10, 0

__ --- ________ ProlongedSnowLover _ 54_______ --- __________ 9, 0

__ 60.5 ______ Lettucing Gutted ______55 ______ 66 __________ 10

 

Unlike last year, there is beginning to show a trend of similar rankings in both contests. Perhaps the challenge is helping some to improve their CET forecasts?

The most anomalous EWP rank is that of J 10 (3rd against 33rd CET), followed by weather-history (4th vs 22nd CET). The most anomalous CET rank appears to be that of The PIT (2nd CET vs 22nd EWP) then Stationary Front (3rd CET vs 17th EWP). 

 

 

 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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On 03/10/2019 at 22:11, Roger J Smith said:

(here's why that missing forecast score for seaside60 was spotted, I was working my way through this table and found that seaside60 had entered all EWP but was shown with 9/10 for CET, which I thought must be unusual so I went back to look ... anyway, making mistakes in tables is not unknown in my own case, I keep amending them as I find them and don't always note the changes unless they have a big impact on somebody's scoring. Thanks J10 for clearing that up, 

 

 

 

Thanks for spotting that as I hadn't.
Yes I always enter both temp and rainfall comps.

Good to see I went up and not down by getting my missing entry, lol...

Also how nice to actually win a temp comp, I usually do poor in that and much better on the rainfall one.
One thing I have noticed is that when I am wrong it seems to be just over 2/3 days extra rain thereby proving the rainfall comp can by screwed by something you can never see in the future.

So called wet months can be determined by just a few days over the whole month. 

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Yep, the only person who ever entered an EWP contest and not a CET the same month was J10 in the 2018 contest year, and that's because he disqualified his entry for being five minutes late but I was using a three hour "extra time" feature. Missing a month in the EWP costs you more than the CET because part of the CET scoring is average error and points, whereas the EWP scoring is simply the total of all scores. However I do show the ranking for average error in EWP for anyone who has entered more than half. There are three forecasters who might want to take note, you haven't been ranked all along but if you enter November and reach 7/12 you will get an error ranking against the field (I think it's nn2013, pegg24 and Thundershine in that category. 

Another feature that will appear in the next edition of EWP scoring will be a list of all "best combined forecasts" in these first two contest years. I published that back in July 2019 and will check out the values against the spreadsheets then enter the results (that will appear to the far right of the tables after 2018 ranks if you've ever gone that far into the file). 

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