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September 2019 C.E.T. and EWP contests


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The GFS is going downhill fast ... here's proof ...

Below is the estimate of the CET over the next 10 days based on the 06z GFS The first graph is the provisional data and forecast with daily max, min, mean and the rolling CET, as well as th

13.4 to the 1st 1.6c below the 61 to 90 average 2.0c below the 81 to 10 average ________________________________ Current high this month 13.4 to the 1st Current low this month

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Sunny Sheffield still at 13.8C -0.1C below normal, Rainfall 103.4mm 158.1% of the monthly average. This also means we're now around average for the year. 

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Perhaps a slight drop in CET values today and tomorrow, so could end up on 14.5 degrees, question is whether there will be any downward corrections - likely end up figure in the range of 14.1-14.5 degrees, slightly above average 61-90 average.

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5 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Perhaps a slight drop in CET values today and tomorrow, so could end up on 14.5 degrees, question is whether there will be any downward corrections - likely end up figure in the range of 14.1-14.5 degrees, slightly above average 61-90 average.

I would be surprised if there is a drop now, it's been so cloudy across the CET zone that minima have been relatively high and it has still reached the mid teens today across most of the zone. With it being so late in the month it will take a really cool day to bring it down.

As for corrections, it's guesswork as always as the final figure comes from a different set of stations to the running mean.

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2 hours ago, Scorcher said:

I would be surprised if there is a drop now, it's been so cloudy across the CET zone that minima have been relatively high and it has still reached the mid teens today across most of the zone. With it being so late in the month it will take a really cool day to bring it down.

As for corrections, it's guesswork as always as the final figure comes from a different set of stations to the running mean.

Guesswork lol.

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Yes, EWP was 103 mm after 28th and looks to have added at least 5 mm on 29th (15-20 mm in parts of north). Today's final contribution could be 15 mm or more. Something in the 123-128 mm range now quite possible. Only slight changes to the provisional scoring as few forecasts were above the last value used, so not many scores will change more than 0.5, this could be a new high water mark for LG scoring though. 

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On 27/09/2019 at 07:46, cheeky_monkey said:

Here in cold/cloudy  Edmonton we are at 12.0c which is +0.6 above average..this is the first month since Jan that has been trending above normal..that will fall though as the last days will be well below normal

shows what 3 cold days does this time of year..now at 10.9c which is -0.5c below normal and as today is going to be cold again..Sept will end up being the 8th Month in a row to be below normal here.

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Sunny Sheffield at 13.7C bang on average. Rainfall 123.9mm 189.4% of the monthly average. Could end up in the top three wettest Septembers on record. Unlikely to beat the record 167.1mm in 1965 though.

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Locally in Woodland Garden, Sheffield.

A very wet month thanks entirely to the last 9 days. Temps were consistent through the month with no particularly cool or warm spells. 

Avg Max = 17.9°C

Avg Min = 10.8°C

Mean Temp: 14.4°C

Max temp: 22.3°C

Min temp: 5.9°C

Rain: 130+mm, more than twice the normal average, again an extremely wet month.

Edited by Thundershine
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3 hours ago, Weather26 said:

Which is staggering considering up to September 21st, we were heading for a dry month! 

Yes, my 67 or whatever it was was looking like it would bust on the high side, it has now bust spectacularly on the low side, i did see this coming a couple of weeks ago though, those GFS projections looked wrong to me.

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3 hours ago, snowray said:

Interesting, 14.3c which was the consensus of our forecasts.?

I said this last month - we're getting better at this ?

Perhaps a monthly forecast could be given on the basis of our collective predictions!

Like last month though I'm feeling a little sick - just 0.4C out and only in 26th position! Have a load of you become professional forecasters this year? ;)

Edited by Man With Beard
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