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September 2019 C.E.T. and EWP contests


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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 hours ago, Scorcher said:

You could say the same about the warm weather, at one point it seemed it would go on for much longer. We could have recorded a notably warm second half of the month.

Under 14C would not be a fair reflection of how this month has felt- particularly further south where there has been a lot of warm sunshine.

Also 27.4C in Anglesey doesn't happen every September- very impressive!

No it doesn't reflect the  the country, it accurately reflects the CET zone, which is what the competition is about, being 1 day away from getting a bang on the nose outright win is a bit different from saying, 'if only it would have been an exceptionally mild last 2 weeks then a 1.5c out prediction would have been correct'

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
7 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No it doesn't reflect the  the country, it accurately reflects the CET zone, which is what the competition is about, being 1 day away from getting a bang on the nose outright win is a bit different from saying, 'if only it would have been an exceptionally mild last 2 weeks then a 1.5c out prediction would have been correct'

I really don't understand what you're trying to say. I wasn't referring to the competition anyway as I haven't entered it for years. You can always look at what might have been either way, warm or cold. That's what I was saying.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, Scorcher said:

I really don't understand what you're trying to say. I wasn't referring to the competition anyway as I haven't entered it for years. You can always look at what might have been either way, warm or cold. That's what I was saying.

Yes but that's what i am saying, you always seem to massively exaggerate warmth or warm potential but then at other times moan about the weather being too cold in Britain so you cannot have it both ways.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield up to 13.6C -0.7C below normal. Rainfall 59.6mm 91.1% of normal. Looking like it's going to be an average month temperature wise and now a wet one.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Its gone up again to 14.5, if it would have stayed the same, my 13.8 with a huge downward correction would still have had a slim chance with a 12.5 and a 13c day still possible sunday and monday but i fear now that's it, the most each cold day will knock it down now is 0.1 at the very most at this stage of the year and there is still going to be another 15c on Saturday punctuating the cold days, so looking now for a 0.2c error hopefully.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

14.5 to the 25th

0.7 above the 61 to 90 average

0.2c above the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 14.7 to the 4th

Current low this month 13.4 to the 1st

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Latest EWP was 64 mm by 24th with at least 6 mm added on 25th, and looks like 30-40 mm potential now in the time remaining. Will set the new provisional at 105 mm which makes nn2013 most likely dual contest winner. Don't have time today to scramble the excel file but from raw data just input, this would be the annual scoring (top 20 listed)

 1 _ Born From The Void ____74.4

 2 _ Reef ________________ 69.8

 3 _ J10 _________________ 66.9

 4 _ weather-history ________65.5

 5 _ Don _________________61.3

 6 _ DR(S)NO ____________ 60.2

 7 _ seaside60 ____________59.9

 8 _ EdStone _____________59.5

 9 _ Mulzy _______________ 58.2

10 _ Stargazer ___________ 58.0

11 _ Daniel* ______________57.9

12 _ Feb1991Blizzard ______56.2

t13 _JeffC, Kirkcaldy Wx ____55.4

t15 _Godber1, CPS, StatFr __54.8

18 _ Midlands Ice Age _____ 54.2

19 _ DiagonalRedLine _____ 54.1

20 _ Norrance ____________53.4

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

When was the last 100mm September?

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield up to 13.7C -0.5C below average, Rainfall 67.3mm 102.9% of the monthly average. So heading for well above average rainfall and average or above temperatures which ten days ago looked extremely unlikely. 

Edited by The PIT
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

With another couple of mild days ahead with very mild minima more so than maxima, we might just about creep up to 14.7 degrees by Sunday with a slight drop expected on Sunday and Monday thanks to cooler maxima and much cooler minima, a finish of 14.5 or 14.6 degrees most likely, before any downward corrections. A very average month overall.

Interesting to note the last appreciably colder than average September in 2015 was followed by the exceptional mild winter. I don't remember the weather of Sept 2015 that much, there must have been alot of polar air about that month and possibly high pressure overhead bringing cool nights.

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
2 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Up to 14.6 tomorrow and probably that figure at the end?

14.2/14.3 looking good.

That works for me!

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

14.6 to the 26th

0.8 above the 61 to 90 average

0.4c above the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 14.7 to the 4th

Current low this month 13.4 to the 1st

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

Here in cold/cloudy  Edmonton we are at 12.0c which is +0.6 above average..this is the first month since Jan that has been trending above normal..that will fall though as the last days will be well below normal

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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
3 hours ago, Don said:

A bit high for me!  13.9c out of the question now.

not a bad shout though to be fair, it's all a bit of luck !

 

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
5 hours ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

How often has it been cooler at the start only for it to warm up during the month ?‍♂️

Almost impossible to get through a calendar month with at least one warm Tm or Continental tropical spell which more than off-sets what cooler Pm daytime or Nightime air (as per this month) we experience...it seems to me!

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

In the daily EWP records (which begin in 1931) there are only two Septembers that were below 30 mm at mid-month and ended up over 90 mm at end of the month:

September 1999 had a dry first thirteen days totalling 10.8 mm and added 9.7 on 14th-15th to reach 20.5 mm at the halfway point. The second half was very wet and the month ended at 124.9 mm.

September 2000 was similar except that it added too much on 14th-15th to a small previous total, and was over 37 mm on its way to 132.6 mm.

Then September 2012 had a similar pattern to this year as well. The total was only 12 mm at the halfway point and 23 mm as late as the 22nd. From there it ballooned to a final total of 92.8 mm (23rd to 25th had over 20 mm each day).  

The highest percentage of monthly rainfall in the second half was in Sept 2007 when 93% of the rain fell in the second half, but this was a relatively dry month. In Sept 1991 which had a fairly average total of 64.9 mm, only 9 mm of that fell in the first fifteen days, so about 85% fell in the second half. For the CEP series which I have on excel file, the percentage was 95.5% (second half rainfall in 1991). The second place month in that stat was 90% in Sept 2007. 

 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
2 hours ago, JeffC said:

not a bad shout though to be fair, it's all a bit of luck !

 

Oh yes, I have certainly done far worse!

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Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl

Lol I regret revising up to 15.5°C from 14.5°C now : ) bad instinct!

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield at 13.8C -0.3C below average, Rainfall 68mm 104% of the monthly average

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield still at 13.8C -0.2C below normal. Rainfall 75.5mm 115.4% of the monthly average. Well a normal temperature wise but wet month overall coming up. A strange month where the average temperature will be very close to what it started at. Temperature wise the month has been in reverse so a warming trend rather than a cooling one.

Edited by The PIT
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