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September 2019 C.E.T. and EWP contests


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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

14.2 to the 21st

0.3 above the 61 to 90 average

0.4c below the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 14.7 to the 4th

Current low this month 13.4 to the 1st

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
29 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

14.1 to the 21st

0.3 above the 61 to 90 average

0.4c below the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 14.7 to the 4th

Current low this month 13.4 to the 1st

Its 14.2.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
37 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Just for you Feb.

14.2 to the 21st.

 

 

6 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Its 14.2.

Looked and was hoping Gavin would be right, so as to give me a better chance of my 13.8 and fully expected it to be, Gavin is usually pretty bang on in terms of updating stats etc but now i find it is actually 14.2

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

I reckon the CET will finish on 14.0C at the end of the month after corrections 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
9 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

I reckon the CET will finish on 14.0C at the end of the month after corrections 

Yes, possibly 14.1 or even 14.2 though.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Much milder minima over the coming days combined with near average maxima will prevent the CET from dropping for a few days I suspect, so we could end up finishing in the low 14s - possibly 14.5 degrees before any corrections, 50/50 whether we end up just below the 61-90 average,against bang on average or just above. There were some very cool nights recently so a marked downward adjustment of up to 0.4 degrees could be on the cards.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
7 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

And the figure will be something close to average... Phew, any higher and that would have been ' another'  grim statistic for the coming winter..

Hilarious.  Wish I had a sense of humour as good as yours!

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Posted
  • Location: Pendle, East Lancashire, North West England
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, not too cold
  • Location: Pendle, East Lancashire, North West England

First time forecaster and looks like my prediction of 14.0°C and 50 mm could be very close to what actually happens. 

 

If only we could play for money, would make things even more interesting...

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

14.3 to the 22nd

0.4 above the 61 to 90 average

0.1c below the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 14.7 to the 4th

Current low this month 13.4 to the 1st

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Posted
  • Location: Harrow, London
  • Location: Harrow, London

Only a week left now. This is my very first time entering the CET competition, and my 14.1 is looking very good. Would be awesome to win on my first time.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 hours ago, Beet said:

Only a week left now. This is my very first time entering the CET competition, and my 14.1 is looking very good. Would be awesome to win on my first time.

Your in prime position if the 0.4 downward correction some are predicting occurs.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
On 21/09/2019 at 18:24, Roger J Smith said:

Not that it makes much difference to your argument but your prediction is 69.8, weather-history has same CET as you (13.8) and 67 mm. I checked the scoring and your upward potential is probably just one or maybe two spots in the table for a perfect hit, most of the people ahead of you would gain some points too from the provisional scoring so your net gain would be fairly small except against Godber.1 who you might pass. You would likely pass CheesepuffScott. Everyone else ahead of you has a similar or wetter forecast and will be gaining some points from what is shown now. 

You two have some chance of scooping best overall forecast with those numbers. I will edit in other possible winners in that dual contest. 

Had a look, probably CET will be adjusted down far enough to rule out the 14s so your main competition comes from Mulzy (13.9, 66) and davehsug (13.9, 69). A slightly drier and warmer outcome might make first time forecaster East Lancs Rain (14.0, 50) our dual champ. There are some other good ones at 14.1 and 14.2. 

Does that mean that in order to get myself into the top 10 now in the last 2 months, i might actually need to consider what others are forecasting as well as myself - in other words take a gamble on maybe quite a big anomaly in both competitions, try and see if i can find some evidence of a very large SD for the final 2 weeks of each month by way of pattern matching and hope no one else spots anything.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Just in process of updating the excel file, will post this to answer and add the excel file when ready. ... you are currently in 11th place on the assumed 80 mm (the target moved past your forecast, two moved both ways from earlier scoring order). As to strategy in last two months of contest, would only say that once you have a ballpark idea of the outcome, you might want to see where the field have placed their bets, this month for example if you had been thinking "around 70" you would have noticed more going above than below so you might bump it up slightly to remain in the middle of the group you think you will score similarly. Probably it makes so little difference I wouldn't advise trying to out-think the stats on it, if you're right on you get the max points. So ...

EWP had reached 26 mm after 21st, looks to have added about 4 mm on 22nd (amounts were generally lower than that with pockets of 10-20 mm in the west and north). GFS 7-day estimates are still high, 60-70 mm in the south and 30-40 mm in the north. The outcome could be as high as 80 mm now. 

The new excel file on that provisional outcome using 79.9 mm to reduce the number of tied scores is now added to the post (a lot of reshuffling) but the top three annual order has changed a bit to Born from the Void, Reef and J10 with weather-history now just into fourth and EdStone now in fifth place ... top ten would not change much if we go past 80 mm as most of those higher forecasts are down quite a way in the mid-range of the scoring now. 

EWP20182019SEP.xlsx

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

14.4 to the 23rd

0.5 above the 61 to 90 average

0.1c below the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 14.7 to the 4th

Current low this month 13.4 to the 1st

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield up to 13.5C, -0.9C below normal. Rainfall 29.3mm 44.8%  of the monthly average.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

Nice call, you're on fire this year!!

I would take that now, as i certainly cannot see it being any lower.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

EWP still on track to reach 80 mm. It was up to 31 mm after 22 days and 23rd will add about 7 or 8, based on a very wet southwest and south central, trending to dry in the northeast. Then the six to seven days of GFS projections from today to 30th appear to average 40 mm across the country, once again wet in the southwest and relatively dry in the northeast. 

Looking at the forecasts, would say JeffC (14.2, 82 mm) is in a very good spot for best combined forecast, DiagonalRedLine has 14.2 and 67 mm. Also in the running would be emmett garland with 14.1 and 67 mm, and Stationary Front with 14.1 and 88 mm. Seaside60 also in the mix with 14.3, 68 mm.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Shame because if the cold air had dug in a day earlier 13.8 would have been possible, could easily be a 10c 1st October now.

 

Wrt the rainfall, apart from a few days about 2 or 3 weeks ago, i always thought these low forecasts were a bit optimistic for dry weather, i didn't expect it to shoot up to 80 but always expected it to come in not much below average.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
13 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Shame because if the cold air had dug in a day earlier 13.8 would have been possible, could easily be a 10c 1st October now.

You could say the same about the warm weather, at one point it seemed it would go on for much longer. We could have recorded a notably warm second half of the month.

Under 14C would not be a fair reflection of how this month has felt- particularly further south where there has been a lot of warm sunshine.

Also 27.4C in Anglesey doesn't happen every September- very impressive!

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

14.4 to the 24th

0.6 above the 61 to 90 average

0.1c below the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 14.7 to the 4th

Current low this month 13.4 to the 1st

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