September 2019 C.E.T. and EWP contests

[Summer Sun]

14.2 to the 14th

0.1c below the 61 to 90 average

0.6c below the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 14.7 to the 4th

Current low this month 13.4 to the 1st

[BornFromTheVoid]

Below is the estimate of the CET over the next 10 days based on the 06z GFS

The first graph is the provisional data and forecast with daily max, min, mean and the rolling CET, as well as the 81-10 rolling mean. The second graph is the daily mean in relation the the daily high and low mean record values.

 

Some variability, but generally just a little above average for the next 10 days.

[DAVID SNOW]

Update using GFS 12z instead of 6z each time? The latter is often out of kilter with other models.

[feb1991blizzard]

9 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Update using GFS 12z instead of 6z each time? The latter is often out of kilter with other models.

12z is cold in FI.

[JeffC]

6 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Below is the estimate of the CET over the next 10 days based on the 06z GFS

The first graph is the provisional data and forecast with daily max, min, mean and the rolling CET, as well as the 81-10 rolling mean. The second graph is the daily mean in relation the the daily high and low mean record values.

 

Some variability, but generally just a little above average for the next 10 days.

Come to Daddy 14.2!!!

[DAVID SNOW]

11 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

12z is cold in FI.

Just focussing on the next 10 days as per BFTV updates.

We are away today to enjoy the weather, back sat.

[feb1991blizzard]

14.3 to the 15th

 

Edited September 16, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[Summer Sun]

14.3 to the 15th

0.1c below the 61 to 90 average

0.4c below the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 14.7 to the 4th

Current low this month 13.4 to the 1st

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 13.4C -1.7C below normal. Rainfall up to 19.4mm 29.7% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

14.3 to the 16th

0.1c below the 61 to 90 average

0.4c below the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 14.7 to the 4th

Current low this month 13.4 to the 1st

[feb1991blizzard]

I Don't think the EWP is going to be as low as previous estimates Roger, might only be just below average now.

[Roger J Smith]

re EWP ...

Just noticed there was quite a jump in ten-day GFS rainfall from the 06z run to the 12z run. 

So far 23 mm to 15th and probably to 16th also. Then the 06z GFS run was only adding about 15 mm to that, but the 12z run adds more like 35 mm, and there would be some more to come after that. So based on that latest estimate, month to finish around 60-65 mm (unless the 06z was right, then still closer to 40). Will see how the projections look tomorrow then perhaps post a new provisional table. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 13.4C, -1.4C below normal. Rainfall still at 19.4mm 29.7% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

14.2 to the 17th

0.1c below the 61 to 90 average

0.4c below the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 14.7 to the 4th

Current low this month 13.4 to the 1st

[Roger J Smith]

EWP is 23 mm through 17th and looks to add 25 mm in next ten days from 06z GFS (possibly 30). That leaves part of 28th to 30th where another 5 mm looked possible from charts. Going with 48.1 mm for new provisional keeping in mind GFS tendency to overestimate rainfall sometimes. This is how scoring will look and I wouldn't imagine much change from this for any value in the 50-60 range as most of the higher scores for September that would come down slightly are in the occasional or one-time section anyway. 

(scoring for 48.1 mm)

 

 

EWP20182019SEP.xlsx

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 13.4C -1.5C below normal. Rainfall unchanged

[Summer Sun]

14.1 to the 18th

Bang on the 61 to 90 average

0.5c below the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 14.7 to the 4th

Current low this month 13.4 to the 1st

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Looks like finishing close to 14c with a cool end to the month looking increasingly likely to offset the next few warm days.

[summer blizzard]

Euro would be warmer but the GFS would probably after corrections be the coolest since 2015.

[feb1991blizzard]

Wrong thread.

Edited September 19, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[summer blizzard]

14 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Wrong thread.

Downtown Zurich at 1pm on a bright day in late summer: bankers on lunch break, tourists, school children…and a woman stripping out of her clothes until she is naked.

17 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Wrong thread.

 

That is one sexy chart. May be worth seeing if any European daily records could be on the line.

[The PIT]

Back on subject Sunny Sheffield finally shows a slight fall down to 13.3C -1.5C below normal. Rainfall unchanged. GFS prolongs the warm spell but then plays around with a cooler outlook. Chances for us recording a below average month has increased somewhat.

[Summer Sun]

14.0 to the 19th

Bang on the 61 to 90 average

0.5c below the 81 to 10 average

________________________________

Current high this month 14.7 to the 4th

Current low this month 13.4 to the 1st

[Katrine Basso]

I think that the CET at the end of the month will be between 13.0 and 13.9.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield back up 13.4C -1.3C below normal. Rainfall unchanged.