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September 2019 C.E.T. and EWP contests


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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    September CET averages and extremes

    ... all values since 1981 are shown, colour coded for warmest, middle and coolest thirds of the 37 years.22.6

     

    22.6 ... warmest day (2nd, 1906)

    21.4 ... warmest day in second half (21st, 2006)

    16.8 ... warmest September (2006)

    16.6 ... second warmest (1729)

    16.3 ... third warmest (tied 1865 and 1949)

    16.0 ... fifth warmest (1795, 2016)

    15.7 ... seventh warmest (1760)

    15.6 ... eighth warmest (tied with 1780) 1999

    15.4 ... tenth warmest (1895)

    15.2 ... 2005

    15.1 ... 2011, 2014

    14.9 ... 1998, 2004

    14.7 ... 1989, 1991, 2000

    14.6 ... 1985

    14.5 ... 1981

    14.4 ... 2002

    14.3  ... average 2001-2018 and 2003

    14.2 ... average 1991-2018, 1989-2018 and 1982, 1997, 2009

    14.1 ...

    14.0 ... average 1981-2010 and 1986-2015

    13.8 ... 2007, 2010

    13.7 ... average 1971-2000, 1983, 1984, 1995, 2013, 2018

    13.6 ... average 1961-1990, 1987, 1996

    13.5 ... average 1701-1800, 1901-2000, 2008, 2017

    13.4 ... 1992, 2001

    13.34... average 1659-2018

    13.2 ... 1988, 1990

    13.1 ... average 1801-1900

    13.0 ..  2012

    12.7 ... 1994

    12.6 ... average 1659-1700, 2015

    12.4 ... 1993

    11.3 ... coldest since 1952 and tied (with 1829) 14th coldest (1986)

    11.2 ... tied twelfth coldest (1860, 1877)

    11.1 ... tied tenth coldest (1840, 1912)

    11.0 ... tied seventh coldest (1672, 1687, 1691)

    10.7 ... coldest September since 1807 and sixth coldest (1952)

    10.6 ... fifth coldest (1703)

    10.5 ... coldest (four tied, 1674,1675,1694,1807)

     6.7 ... coldest days in first half (13th and 14th, 1807)

     4.9 ... coldest day (28th, 1824)

    ____________________________________________________________________

    Enter by the end of Saturday, 31 August without penalty, or with increasing late penalties to end of Tuesday, 3rd September.

    ============================================================================

    (add your EWP forecast if you wish, to the CET entry) ...

    ... data from 1766 to 2018 from Hadley EWP. 

     

    189.8 mm __ wettest (1918)*

    139.9 mm __ wettest 1981-2018 in 1981 

    102.0 mm __ wettest 30-year avg (1772-1801)

     80.9 mm ___ average all data 1766-2018

     77.2 mm __ average 1981-2010

     73.2 mm __ average 1989-2018

     58.4 mm __ lowest 30-year avg (1888-1917)

     16.4 mm __ driest 1981-2018 in 2014.

      _8.0 mm __ driest (Hadley) 1766-2018 in 1959**

    _________________________________________________

    * 1797 and 1799 were almost as wet in the Hadley series at 185.4 mm and 186.8 mm.

    ** second driest in Hadley series since 1766 was 9.5 mm in 1865.

    __________________________________________________

    Recent EWP ___ 2018 .. 67.0 ___ 2017 .. 106.2 ___ 2016 .. 72.0 ___ 2015 .. 62.7 ___ 2014 .. 16.4 ___ 2013 .. 61.8 ___ 2012 .. 92.8

    Enter the EWP contest on same deadlines as CET 

    ... good luck !! ... 

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    The GFS is going downhill fast ... here's proof ...

    Below is the estimate of the CET over the next 10 days based on the 06z GFS The first graph is the provisional data and forecast with daily max, min, mean and the rolling CET, as well as th

    13.4 to the 1st 1.6c below the 61 to 90 average 2.0c below the 81 to 10 average ________________________________ Current high this month 13.4 to the 1st Current low this month

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    46 minutes ago, Weather26 said:

    To kick us off, 13.2C and 74mm please

    Can't be sure yet but i think it will be a little higher than that.

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    Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters, cold springs, cold summers and cold autumns
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom

    19C  :oldsad:  Last sub 11C September in 1952.  Last sub 12C September in 1986.  Last sub 13C September in 2015.  Winter 2019/2020 is over before its even started.

    200mm from monsoons and Atlantic garbage.

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    Posted
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK

    14.2c and 110mm please - I can see a warmish first half, and a cool and wet second half. 

    Edited by nn2013
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    Posted
  • Location: near Edenbridge - 178ft
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters and cool, wet springs and summers.
  • Location: near Edenbridge - 178ft

    12.4 and 129mm

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl .
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl .

    14.4C and 72.1mms please.

    MIA

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

    14.7 C and 103.8 mm please 

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    Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl

    14.5°C and 87.1mm please 

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    Posted
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts
  • Weather Preferences: hot summers; frigid winters; golden fall; bright spring
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts

    14.6 and 58mm please

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    Posted
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: bright & frosty/snowy; summer: hot and sunny.
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland

    15.9°C and 60.0mm for me please. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

    14.2deg C please along with 82 mm precipitation

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    Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl

    Would like to revise to 15.5°C and 46.2mm please

    Summery and dry first half with some influence from former tropical depressions later on, second half average but still pretty dry with not much of a raging Atlantic.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Not a fan of heatstroke.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.

    15.1C and 47.9mm, please.

    Edited by chrisbell-nottheweatherman
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    Posted
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth
  • Weather Preferences: Misty Autumn Mornings, Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth

    13.7 and 85mm please.

    I think we'll get our first ex hurricane go through mid month. 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)

    Potentially another short, sharp hot spell on the way, but otherwise nothing special. I'll go for 14.7C.

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    14.4c please.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    13.6C, vile, lot of low pressure leaving NW'lys when clearing, 97mm

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)

    14.9c cheers ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands

    14.2*C please with 67mm rainfall.

    Have a feeling it will be average overall - perhaps a warm start, with a cold spell towards the end and some snow over Northern hills. 

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