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The PIT

Friday unseasonable deep low

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Posted (edited)

A premature Autumn storm looks on the cards for this Friday. This could cause big problems with gales and heavy rain and more trouble for Whaley Bridge area but hopefully by then they'll have the dam lowered enough by then.

Edited by Lauren

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There's plenty of time for this to downgrade/upgrade and everything else in between... But here are the some charts from todays 12z GFS run on Wetterzentrale for 12z on Friday! :shok:
500mb height anomaly, rainfall totals, and wing gusts. 🌪️🌧️🍃

GFSOPEU12_144_1.png

GFSOPUK12_144_4.png

GFSOPUK12_144_19.png

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Now gone on this mornings run

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, The PIT said:

Now gone on this mornings run

The depth of the Low may of gone, But the bulk of the rain is now over exactly where we don't need it, Was further North on last run, Still a long way off though..

1283253122_viewimage(2).thumb.png.72f94c565a09df37ff889267f3cf1084.png529289817_viewimage(3).thumb.png.31ad1898c6095bd16cb9d8dc503950ea.png

Edited by Polar Maritime

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Back again this evenings run. Confidence must be low on the feature and no pun intended.

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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, The PIT said:

Back again this evenings run. Confidence must be low on the feature and no pun intended.

Anyone with half a brain will be hoping this low disappears entirely from the output to spare further misery for areas of the country that really don’t need any more rain.

Fortunately the current forecast doesn’t indicate anything out of the ordinary for Friday.

Edited by cheese

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Posted (edited)

GFS still very keen on this low pressure. It's there albeit less intense on the fax chart.Local met office graphical forecast makes nothing of it while the text forecast indicates a major weather feature. I quote "Friday, outbreaks of locally heavy rain overnight followed by heavy or thundery showers during the day." I used the fairly inaccurate NetWx-MR to give a rough idea of the rainfall expected.

viewimage.pbx.png

Edited by The PIT

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Met office warnings out for this now, rain Friday and wind Saturday.

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Yeh noticed that both ECM and UKMO have made it deeper than previously shown.

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Getting married on Friday! Any ideas on how quickly this low will move through? Am in Torbay in Devon. Any thoughts would be appreciated!

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Evening! Well if you roll through the ecm and gfs in the next ten days  Autumn like charts with pockets of Tropical Maritme  punched in!!! By the The interesting thing tonight is how cold Northern Scotland gets cold by Mondayinterestingx.thumb.png.5fe494386e32ce1575463f876b3fb29e.png

interesting.png

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1 hour ago, Smaller said:

Getting married on Friday! Any ideas on how quickly this low will move through? Am in Torbay in Devon. Any thoughts would be appreciated!

The worst should have passed there by Friday Morning. 

Still some heavy showers likely and windy.

 

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I wonder if they'll name this system.

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Down at Boardmastwrs World surfing event at Newquay's Fistral beach now. Passed a big illuminated sign saying Cancelled, that's the tents bit to the East of the town. Weather breezy but dry, the public will need to be well prepared to watch the event Fri/ Sat

 

20190807_104933.jpg

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3 hours ago, stevofunnelcl said:

Could be a serious one, and they are only half done with my roof.

Boardmasters: Weather safety fears cancel music festival

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-49259812

Big call to cancel Boardmasters.

 

I get you about roof woes! Have had problems this year with mine leaking but only seems to be in extreme conditions and when the wind is blowing a certain way. I think it's dry up there now but everytime it rains I have to keep going up in the loft to check!!

 

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Latest from Jo

 

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Since it hasn't been named it will probably be a proper storm. The wind will be an issue with the trees in leaf some of them won't need to worry about autumn they'll be stripped before them or even blown down. Flooding looks like an issue as well.

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stripeyfox - yes, same, for a long time, always having to go up there and check every time it rains

This low is really taking shape.. i took a look at the Sat image, it looks vicious already. A deep band of convection, and sferics already showing up

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Strongest Winds are predicted across SE England on Saturday.Met office updated warning calls for 50mph inland which is notable given the time of year.

SW England looks to miss the highest gusts unless you are coastal.

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This video by the Met Office is interesting. Shows the impacts and how the storm has developed.

 

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What really happened thursday night the heavy rain came on as shown,but no mention of any thunderstorms forecast which came later that night,very unexepected huge unstability then and a big surprise to be woken up and then with torrential downpours came,so the weather does give a big bonus at times.

 

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