Storms and Convective discussion - 28th July 2019 onwards

[Summer Sun]

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 21 Feb 2020 - 05:59 UTC Sat 22 Feb 2020

ISSUED 00:37 UTC Fri 21 Feb 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Frontal rain will affect Northern Ireland, southern Scotland, northern England and north Wales through much of Friday daytime. North of this, showers will spread across the Hebrides, Northern Isles and northern Scottish mainland. Despite marginal CAPE, the strongly-sheared environment could encourage a few isolated lightning strikes to occur. Overnight, the main frontal rain will sink southwards, allowing more of northern Britain to be affected by deep convection with showers becoming widespread, driven by strong westerly winds. Hail is likely in many of the showers (along with snow in places), and sporadic lightning will likely become more widespread across northern and western Scotland as mid-level lapse rates continue to steepen, and CAPE increases. A low-end SLGT has been issued, with the main interest during Friday night.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-02-21

[Another Kent clipper]

I cannot wait for the season to get started, not gonna lie.

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 24 Feb 2020 - 05:59 UTC Tue 25 Feb 2020

ISSUED 06:52 UTC Mon 24 Feb 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

As a surface low gradually clears eastwards from southern Scotland, the environment across much of the British Isles will become increasingly unstable during Monday evening and night as a cold pool overspreads relatively warm SSTs, creating steep mid-level lapse rates and yielding up to 400 J/kg CAPE. Numerous showers will affect Ireland initially, then spreading farther east into western Britain through the night. Hail is likely in many of the showers, along with isolated to sporadic lightning - the risk generally greatest towards W / NW Ireland, where a low-end SLGT has been issued. Gusts of 50-60mph will be possible with some showers in western Ireland.

Convective Weather

WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

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Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

 

[Zak M]

Didn't see that coming!

(Obviously when it says that it may not be a thunderstorm, but that's the first time it has shown a thunderstorm symbol here since 27th August!)

Edited February 24, 2020 by Zak M

[Zak M]

 

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 26 Feb 2020 - 05:59 UTC Thu 27 Feb 2020

ISSUED 21:02 UTC Tue 25 Feb 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper trough over the British Isles will slowly clear eastwards during Wednesday, as ridging develops aloft ahead of the next Atlantic low pressure system. Cold pool will provide another day with steep mid-level lapse rates and a few hundred J/kg CAPE, in response to relatively warm SSTs and diurnal heating inland. Showers will continue to affect northern and western areas through the day, feeding further inland on the northwesterly steering wind. A few isolated lightning strikes may occur, more especially close to western coasts when showers come onshore, but with ridging developing the risk will gradually reduce from the southwest through the day as convection becomes shallower, and showers more isolated.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-02-26

[Zak M]

There were some incredible cloudscapes yesterday!!

At about 2:30, a shower bought some incredible clouds and hail along with it:

And I found this little buddy lurking to the NE today:

[Weather-history]

Some nice convection today

 

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 27 Feb 2020 - 05:59 UTC Fri 28 Feb 2020

ISSUED 21:34 UTC Wed 26 Feb 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Cold pool aloft residing over northern British Isles through much of Thursday and Thursday night will create an environment with steep mid-level lapse rates and a few hundred J/kg CAPE. Consequently showers will affect Scotland in particular through most of this forecast period, and could produce a few isolated lightning strikes. As the departing upper trough sharpens over England on Thursday daytime, some weak instability will develop in the post-frontal environment, behind the main surface low. However, most NWP guidance suggests these areas stay dry into the afternoon hours as ridging develops from the west.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-02-27

 

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 29 Feb 2020 - 05:59 UTC Sun 01 Mar 2020

ISSUED 19:48 UTC Fri 28 Feb 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Different areas will have a low risk of lightning at different times through this forecast period, hence the broad LOW threat level. A cold front will clear northwards and eastwards across Scotland and England on Saturday morning, with embedded line convection. Some strong gusts of wind may occur with this feature, and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out given the strongly-sheared environment and some marginal instability just ahead of the front. However, this feature is likely to weaken with time.

Elsewhere, cold air aloft overspreading relatively warm SSTs and weak diurnal heating inland (largely offset by cold advection and the strength of the wind) will generate scattered showers across Ireland, Wales and England, these capable of producing some small hail, gusty winds and isolated lightning strikes.

Longer spells of rain and snow will spread across Ireland into western and northern Britain, associated with the wrap-around occlusion - but close to the low centre, showers may produce a few isolated lightning strikes across Connaught and Ulster during the afternoon hours. Overnight, showery rain will tend to break up into showers over northern Scotland and the Northern Isles, and these may also produce the odd isolated lightning strike.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-02-29

[LightningLover]

First day of meteorological spring! Some hazy sunshine here at the moment, with a slight breeze.

Let’s hope this spring and summer brings a convective season for everyone to remember! 2019 was nothing short of phenomenal for Bexhill! Fingers crossed...

Edited March 1, 2020 by LightningLover

[Mr Frost]

Agreed @LightningLover

Repeat of last Summer for up here would be great! 

With regards to our current weather - another great last week for big time snow/wintry mix showers once again! (Second half of February in general was fantastic)


 

Looking forward to the warmth/heat/convective weather of late Spring/Summer. 

All the best everyone!

Edited March 1, 2020 by Mr Frost

[Zak M]

5 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Agreed @LightningLover

Repeat of last Summer for up here would be great! 

With regards to our current weather - another great last week for big time snow/wintry mix showers once again! (Second half of February in general was fantastic)


 

Looking forward to the warmth/heat/convective weather of late Spring/Summer. 

All the best! 

 

52 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

First day of meteorological spring! Some hazy sunshine here at the moment, with a slight breeze.

Let’s hope this spring and summer brings a convective season for everyone to remember! 2019 was nothing short of phenomenal for Bexhill! Fingers crossed...

Get your raincoats, cameras and sun cream out - summer and storm season will be guaranteed arriving in style! 

[Sparkiee storm]

Whats this, just off the coast near Swansea 

[Mapantz]

Slight chance of the odd flash of lightning associated with heavy showers moving in to Southern counties tonight.

[Thunder and Lightning]

I can't wait for storm season

[Rush2019]

36 minutes ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

I can't wait for storm season

Same here, l would love a repeat or two of a fab storm that happened in the early hours of the 24th July last year.  A cell formed over Wrexham way, moved east and came right over Macclesfield, lightning came from every direction accompanied with some of the loudest thunder not heard in a while, got goosebumps thinking about it. I get so excited and restless if there's a sniff of a thunderstorm imminent, much worse than a child on xmas eve.

[Zak M]

Lil' shower in the sun 

Edited March 1, 2020 by Zak M

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 02 Mar 2020 - 05:59 UTC Tue 03 Mar 2020

ISSUED 17:52 UTC Sun 01 Mar 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Broad upper troughing persists across the British Isles on Monday, albeit slowly clearing to the east. The associated cold pool will maintain reasonably-steep mid-level lapse rates, and a couple hundred J/kg CAPE. As such there could be a few isolated lightning strikes from any convection that can grow sufficiently tall enough, although surface ridging will tend to build across much of England and Wales in the wake of the early morning showery rain / small low. Perhaps the greatest potential for lightning (albeit still rather low) will be across Ireland, and NW / SW England. However, most areas will remain void of any lightning.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-03-02

 

[Atmogenic]

Got an unexpected hail shower out of nowhere here 

[Summer Sun]

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 16 Mar 2020 - 05:59 UTC Tue 17 Mar 2020

ISSUED 14:38 UTC Mon 16 Mar 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Scattered showers will feed into northwest Scotland on Monday evening and night - given a couple hundred J/kg CAPE and reasonably strong shear, a few isolated lightning strikes could occur, although the depth of convection may be somewhat restricted.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-03-16

[Summer Sun]

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 17 Mar 2020 - 05:59 UTC Wed 18 Mar 2020

ISSUED 07:23 UTC Tue 17 Mar 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Scattered showers will affect northern Scotland throughout Tuesday, while also returning to western Scotland on Tuesday night. Given 100-300 J/kg CAPE in a strongly-sheared environment, a few isolated lightning strikes could occur, more especially close to western Scotland.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-03-17

[Zak M]

Probably not the right thread, but there's a possibility of some showers/thunderstorms developing over N France/Channel Islands/English Channel this evening and overnight.

  

[lottiekent]

Just looking at the radar as about to set off on a long journey, and there’s some lightning in the Channel Isles along with very heavy rain. 

[Zak M]

A very nice day today!

[Zak M]

It's almost that time of the year again lads.

Can't wait for the storms, especially the ones after a very humid day with 27c+ temperatures and getting woken up at about 2am to the most spectacular night time lightning.

2020 will be a brilliant year for storms. BRING IT ONNNNNNNNNNN!!!!!!