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Storms and Convective discussion - 28th July 2019 onwards

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Been thunder on and off most of the day and evening so far here in south east Ayrshire with hail upto pea sized. Its been a good day ?

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interesting, squall line ? in the Irish sea seems to be active with some sferics

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Yep, squall line just passed through Kingsbridge in South Devon.

Torrential rain and frequent lightning, one of which was very close! 10 min later and it's all quiet again...

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Really violent squall when it came through here - with the wind changes it could have been a microburst here. Hail too.

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 14 Feb 2020 - 05:59 UTC Sat 15 Feb 2020

ISSUED 21:04 UTC Thu 13 Feb 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Some line convection is possible along the cold front as it tracks eastwards across Ireland on Friday morning, but this is expected to weaken with time and the lightning risk is considered very low overall. This may also be followed immediately by a post-frontal trough, also with elements of line convection. Behind the front, cool air aloft will steepen mid-level lapse rates and generate up to 600 J/kg CAPE over the Atlantic, just 100 J/kg inland over Ireland and Scotland. Nonetheless, the environment will be strongly sheared, and so scattered showers affecting these areas during Friday daytime may produce a few isolated lightning strikes. The areas at greatest risk of some sporadic lightning are the Outer Hebrides, with greater proximity to larger offshore CAPE - a low-end SLGT has been introduced, but it is likely most of any lightning activity may remain offshore to the west of these areas (peak time mid-afternoon Friday). 

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-02-14

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 16 Feb 2020 - 05:59 UTC Mon 17 Feb 2020

ISSUED 20:53 UTC Sat 15 Feb 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

A dual cold front will be slowly clearing southeastwards across England and Wales on Sunday morning, within a strongly-sheared environment. The frontal boundaries are likely to exhibit marked temperature and wind speed gradients and wind veer. One or two well-pronounced bands of line convection are expected to develop, producing a narrow zone of very heavy rain and perhaps some gusty winds. In general the shallow nature of convection coupled with saturated profiles and weak instability suggests the risk of lightning is fairly low. Nonetheless, should line convection fracture or evolve into an LEWP, perhaps with interaction with local topography, an isolated tornado may be possible.

Behind the frontal rain, cold air will overspread relatively warm SSTs to generate 300-500 J/kg CAPE in an environment with steep mid-level lapse rates. Numerous showers will develop over open waters and feed inland across Scotland and Ireland, occasionally organised into more distinct bands as shortwaves move through in the flow. Showers will also feed into England and Wales from Sunday afternoon onwards. Some sporadic lightning will be possible in some of the showers, primarily close to western coasts since instability will be maximised just offshore. Strong shear across the southern half of the British Isles may allow some cells to become organised, capable of producing hail up to 1.5cm in diameter and strong gusts of wind (up to 70-80mph in exposed locations) - an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-02-16

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Now that was a good clap of thunder ??
I hope that this could fetch me out of the no storms club for 2020. ????

0E4D088A-6F34-4D16-BAC4-1334EDC6ED82.png

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Although not right over head I have to say that was quite a nice little storm. ⛈️:oldgrin:

B6356BC3-B14A-4F38-979C-9A4AFB04497E.png

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Reasonably confident that single strike was a positive one. Very loud rumble which went on and on and on. Reports locally from areas 7-8 miles miles apart of the loud rumble. Was accomplished by heavy hail.

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No squall lines, just showers associated with a trough moving through.

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20 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

No squall lines, just showers associated with a trough moving through.

I thought so. Didn't look too organised either.

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Flash and a bang here in Bristol. More lightning and thunder than snow this winter ??

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Would be interested to see if there is anything to be investigated in a vicious squall that has just passed to the East of Brighton.

Developed quickly on the radar,and I hesitate to say 'tornado" in its infancy but vicious winds that sucked the doors and windows open and driving hail sideways.

Unusual,but perhaps just a down burst...

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58 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

Would be interested to see if there is anything to be investigated in a vicious squall that has just passed to the East of Brighton.

Developed quickly on the radar,and I hesitate to say 'tornado" in its infancy but vicious winds that sucked the doors and windows open and driving hail sideways.

Unusual,but perhaps just a down burst...

Call me crazy if you want - But I think there actually could of been a tornado/circulation there.

If you replay the radar images between 20:50 and 21:15 over Bristol you can see the shower moves east, but the red bit (the heaviest bit) of the shower moves north.

Maybe I'm hallucinating, but it looks quite interesting to say the least.

Edited by Zak M

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If you live in the SW, then there's a potential of some showers turning thundery. Central areas have a small chance too but they'll most likely die away.

Edited by Zak M
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socialmedialogo.png
WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

Today's forecast

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Had another flash of lightning at 5 o clock this morning this time minus the thunder but still what a amazing convective start to the year it's been hopefully not had our lot for the year already make up for all the near misses last year

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Interesting structure...

Untitled Project (Time 0_00_00;00).png

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Heard a rumble of thunder early this morning from a shower in the channel. Second time I’ve heard thunder this year already even if nothings been that close. 

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25 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Interesting structure...

Untitled Project (Time 0_00_00;00).png

That threw hail down when it passed through Swindon, didn't hear any thunder.

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Look at the amount of showers are in the west!

Untitled Project (Time 0_00_00;00).png

Edited by Zak M
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Absolutely amazing cloudscapes here in the last couple of hours!!! ?

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260202391_IMG_07561.thumb.JPG.cfa52988d1a8fc81020e0490cd1d0d2b.JPG5525477_IMG_07601.thumb.JPG.7c69a3741ece47b37cfa2b66538dc84a.JPG1508080163_IMG_07641.thumb.JPG.e40985cfeacbbcc54f9c6b389df43045.JPG

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