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Storms and Convective discussion - 28th July 2019 onwards

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Blimey. HELL of a storm here. Best storm for a couple of years, loads of CG and very white lightning. 

Most unexpected in the cold against the fairy lights!!

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It has been a weekend of big time wintry showers moving in from my SW - only thing missing has been thunder and lightning! Glad to see a few of you have had some! 👍

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Edited by Mr Frost

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Stunning views Mr Frost! Beautiful scenery and skyscapes.

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 16 Dec 2019 - 05:59 UTC Tue 17 Dec 2019

ISSUED 20:10 UTC Sun 15 Dec 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

Broad upper trough will reside over the British Isles on Monday, the pattern becoming rather slack and slow-moving. Scattered heavy showers will continue to affect coastal areas in particular, although in general not as widespread as previous days, and generally slower-moving. A few isolated lightning strikes may occur in places, although many areas will likely remain void of lightning.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-12-16

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Considering its only Winter I haven't done too bad here the last 24hrs for thundery weather.

There were a few more faint distant flashes between 4:00pm and 7:00pm with heavy showers and even some small hail.

 

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12 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Right over Heathrow that last one!

Intense 10 minutes of hail and a big flash of lightning/booming thunder. Fun!

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 17 Dec 2019 - 05:59 UTC Wed 18 Dec 2019

ISSUED 20:42 UTC Mon 16 Dec 2019

ISSUED BY: null

A broad and rather slack upper trough will linger close to the British Isles during Tuesday, providing an environment with steep mid-level lapse rates and a few hundred J/kg CAPE. Scattered showers will affect some western coasts, which may produce a few isolated lightning strikes.

During the afternoon and evening hours, the sharp trough axis will slide eastwards across the English Channel, with a few scattered heavy showers possible here, and advecting inland into other parts of southern England. The depth of convection will be shallower here, but given strong shear (and even hints of backed low-level winds) a few sporadic lightning strikes may just about be possible.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-12-17

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Those storms in the channel have some very interesting shapes!

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Those heavy showers likely to head a little inland for far southern and southeastern England but tending to fizzle out later in the night. Blue area shown for the Midlands is the model picking up mist and fog patches. 

UK_RAIN1_10.thumb.jpg.2b5b6dc1e243f3f7733d6b211ceefb53.jpg

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Edited by jordan smith

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Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 18 Dec 2019 - 05:59 UTC Thu 19 Dec 2019

ISSUED 09:43 UTC Wed 18 Dec 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

Remnant instability associated with the cold pool that has lingered over the British Isles during the past few days will still be present across northern and western Scotland on Wednesday morning, before gradually clearing to the northeast. As such, isolated lightning strikes associated with showers will be possible initially, but the risk will decrease with time. 

Elsewhere, scattered showers are likely over portions of Ireland behind the main frontal rain during this evening, generally in an arc spreading northeastwards. Given the strongly-sheared profile, with looping hodographs and marked low-level jet, any convection that can become rooted within the boundary layer may exhibit some organisation / supercell characteristics - and as such, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Despite relatively weak CAPE, the strong shear and a marked mid-level dry intrusion suggests some sporadic lightning will be possible. 

Later in the night, an increase in deep convection and showers will evolve over the Celtic Sea, which may produce some sporadic lightning also. 

A low-end SLGT has been introduced, but confidence in coverage of lightning is not particularly high. It is possible an additional low-end SLGT may be required for parts of the Hebrides (such as Skye) for the overnight hours too, depending on how things evolve.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-12-18

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SEEING DISTANT LIGHTNING AGAIN AND DURING THAT I JUST SAW A METEOR SHOOT ACROSS THE SKY!!!!!

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Saw lightning last night while driving to Whitchurch, so weirdly, that makes it only my third "thunder day" of 2019. One flash and clap in April, the mammoth storm in July and now a flash in December.

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