Jump to content

Storms and Convective discussion - 28th July 2019 onwards


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2.3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Had a huge storm yesterday afternoon.

Picture of last nights supercell in Edinburgh taken from portobello beach 

Satellite infra red imagery from the early hours of this morning showed quite a dark core for the low pressure system out in the bay of Biscay. I would take this to show that the low pressure system w

Posted Images

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 26 Nov 2019 - 05:59 UTC Wed 27 Nov 2019

ISSUED 20:17 UTC Mon 25 Nov 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

An area of low pressure, containing the remnants of ex-Tropical Storm Sebastien, will approach Ireland from the Atlantic, pushing frontal rain northwards across the British Isles. The post-frontal environment will be characterised by marginal instability, with a few hundred J/kg CAPE and strong shear. Scattered showers are likely to affect parts of England and Wales (and adjacent seas), which may produce a few isolated lightning strikes - but many areas will likely remain void of lightning.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-11-26

Link to post
Share on other sites

Quite a lot of lightning near the Bristol channel. Not sure what is happening with lightningmaps and blitzortung as the strikes are disappearing every 3 minutes.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 27 Nov 2019 - 05:59 UTC Thu 28 Nov 2019

ISSUED 20:38 UTC Tue 26 Nov 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

Given marginal instability, scattered showers on Wednesday over the Irish Sea, English Channel and adjacent coastal counties may produce the odd isolated lightning strike - but most areas will remain void of lightning.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-11-27

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 2 weeks later...

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 07 Dec 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sun 08 Dec 2019

ISSUED 11:04 UTC Sat 07 Dec 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

As a largescale upper trough approaches from the Atlantic, numerous showers will develop over Ireland and western Britain on Saturday night as the cold front clears to the east. Given steep mid-level lapse rates, a few hundred J/kg CAPE and strong shear, a few sporadic lightning strikes will be possible (especially western Scotland), along with small hail and gusty winds.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-12-07

Link to post
Share on other sites

Bit of green on the map, maybe Mr frost might see something...

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 10 Dec 2019 - 05:59 UTC Wed 11 Dec 2019

ISSUED 06:48 UTC Tue 10 Dec 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

A squally cold front will drive eastwards across the British Isles on Tuesday, in a strongly-sheared environment. Strong convective gusts are expected, accompanied by a brief spell of torrential rain - however, the risk of lightning is considered very low given meagre instability and a saturated column. Nonetheless, the front will need monitoring for potential brief spin-up tornadoes.

 

The post-frontal environment is then characterised by a significant cold pool overspreading relatively warm seas across western areas, with very steep mid-level lapse rates and a 200-500 J/kg CAPE. By Tuesday evening and night, numerous showers will pile into Ireland, northern and western Scotland, and later in the night across the Irish Sea into Wales and SW England. Some sporadic lightning is likely in places - climatologically, western Scotland, NW / W / SW Ireland, south Wales and SW England. A low-end SLGT has been introduced. Strong, gusty winds and small hail will accompany many of the showers, with snow on northern hills.

socialmedialogo.png
WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
On 10/12/2019 at 08:16, Another Kent clipper said:

Bit of green on the map, maybe Mr frost might see something...

 

Morning mate 

Had some torrential downpours and hail showers on Tuesday. (Snow over the higher hills/mountains - was fairly cloudy all day so not much use for photo opportunities)

Yesterday was much better for cloudscapes but the thunder and lightning stayed mostly over the Inner Hebrides.

The sky did look threatening at times though. (Pictures below from yesterday)

486E3900-DDDF-4C64-8B7C-B3005F340A1B.thumb.jpeg.f9981bfc8638b670c936d7e8ae3061a5.jpeg0551A52E-71CF-4708-BC0C-42BD07645EAA.thumb.jpeg.28231073a02fcc7253dd3646323e6926.jpegD146D80D-9EB1-4EA6-A7BF-96BC69CC6D69.thumb.jpeg.c82c110cc89ff1c4276e4fd73c1cac2f.jpeg0D0ED996-6D1F-414F-9AB1-FB5B12E5D0BC.thumb.jpeg.cdd6492b290c13105a36729c8c362e38.jpegF19A1C57-9CDE-47DA-9DDA-451413E2B06E.thumb.jpeg.d49affac3ed07138b6b3010067c9ab6d.jpeg8FCB4983-6C91-49DD-AF20-FFB814C75532.thumb.jpeg.a98914614b4d6265cc536b85d8eaa861.jpeg
 

3C135298-B4ED-4DE3-A17C-6227FEFCDD2C.thumb.jpeg.658bda55f840a7b8c84dd2b450e65d7c.jpeg

3F2CCF06-BE0C-4B64-AB69-773A647DC913.thumb.jpeg.94ecdfe59247af15896acf502948297a.jpeg

Edited by Mr Frost
  • Like 7
Link to post
Share on other sites

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 14 Dec 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sun 15 Dec 2019

ISSUED 21:33 UTC Fri 13 Dec 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

Broad upper troughing will reside over the British Isles during Saturday, with the passage of several shortwaves moving eastwards in the strong westerly flow. These will serve the focus for enhanced shower activity, associated with cold pools and a few hundred J/kg CAPE. As such, and given a strongly-sheared environment, a few isolated lightning strikes may occur - most likely close to western coasts. Gusty winds and small hail may accompany some of the showers.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-12-14

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, tomdewey said:

I don't if that is false lightning dots or real lighting dots on top of the wales on lighting maps 

They're real strikes. That storm has been going strong unlike the London one.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Not sure if anyone else heard but earlier there was a loud long rumble here a few hours ago before there was a ridiculously heavy downpour.

Not sure if it was thunder or a possible very weak earthquake or possible explosion as it didn't,t sound like normal thunder and I was inside watching TV when it happened. If it was from lightning it must have been a pretty powerful strike to be heard with windows and curtains shut, watching tv with headphones on.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, wimblettben said:

Not sure if anyone else heard but earlier there was a loud long rumble here a few hours ago before there was a ridiculously heavy downpour.

Not sure if it was thunder or a possible very weak earthquake or possible explosion as it didn't,t sound like normal thunder and I was inside watching TV when it happened. If it was from lightning it must have been a pretty powerful strike to be heard with windows and curtains shut, watching tv with headphones on.

It was definately an earthquake

Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, wimblettben said:

Not sure if anyone else heard but earlier there was a loud long rumble here a few hours ago before there was a ridiculously heavy downpour.

I heard the same thing while I was hanging out of the window having a smoke during a downpour.

Several of them, with just a few seconds between each one. Definitely wasn't thunder.

Edited by Mapantz
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, wimblettben said:

Are they real strikes or just errors?

Nope,real strikes.

EN.BLITZORTUNG.ORG

Blitzortung.org provides lightning and thunderstorm information in real time on maps for USA, United Kingdom, Australia, new Zealand, Europa, Africa, Asia and other Countries.

 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Bit of green for t' lads...

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 15 Dec 2019 - 05:59 UTC Mon 16 Dec 2019

ISSUED 23:04 UTC Sat 14 Dec 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

Similar to Saturday, a strong southwesterly flow aloft will cover much of central and southern parts of the British Isles during Sunday, on the forward side of a broad upper trough. Several shortwaves will move quickly northeastwards in the flow, enhancing shower activity and organising into longer spells of rain at times, with some linear features / bow echoes likely at times capable of producing squally winds, small hail and perhaps a tornado.

 

Strong shear, steep mid-level lapse rates and several hundred J/kg CAPE will result in some sporadic lightning in places, particularly close to the southern and western coasts. A few episodes of interest exist - across parts of Wales on Sunday morning, Irish Sea during the afternoon then more widely over southern and western Britain during the evening hours (particularly Dorset to IoW northeastwards towards London). A low-end SLGT has been introduced.

socialmedialogo.png
CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Wales seems to have done better for thunder in the Autumn and Winter months then Spring and Summer as we have just had a light to moderate shower come over with some distant thunder and then one flash and rumble overhead.

And I am now almost certain that the ridiculously loud rumble we had last night was also thunder.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...