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Storms and Convective discussion - 28th July 2019 onwards

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1 minute ago, Another Kent clipper said:

@Stormyking

You should never have to apologise for cumulonimbi

Haha that is true, I have a habit of saying sorry 😅

Still some real heavy downpours at the minute, had another shower with Hail in about 15/20 minutes ago, things looking very interesting still as we head into this Evening and Tonight 

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15th storm of the year! Just heard distant thunder from the SE!

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25 minutes ago, Stormyking said:

Haha that is true, I have a habit of saying sorry 😅

Still some real heavy downpours at the minute, had another shower with Hail in about 15/20 minutes ago, things looking very interesting still as we head into this Evening and Tonight 

Currently sat on Hayling beach, saw you lot over the water get a pounding with rain 🤣 some great clouds eh! Just no sparks 🙄

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42 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

15th storm of the year! Just heard distant thunder from the SE!

I wouldn't class distant thunder as a storm?! 🤓

How many storms have you had that are direct hits with more than 1 clap of thunder?

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21 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I wouldn't class distant thunder as a storm?! 🤓

How many storms have you had that are direct hits with more than 1 clap of thunder?

~6 (it’s just how I like to record data really)

Edited by LightningLover

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There was apparently a lightning strike about 10 minutes ago to the SW of me. Surprisingly didn't hear any thunder.

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Just pulling off the M11 near cambridge (wife driving!) And one of best forked lightning I'veseen all year right in front of me- straight to the ground, completely a bonus and in October too!!! Amazing strike 😊

Edited by James1979

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Absolutely hammering down on the a428, terrific stuff,proper weather

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A disappointing day here. Last night was better.

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Only one light shower here we seem to be in the drier slot there are lots of showers and downpours North and south of us atleast we saw something last night but even that wasn't spectacular here anyway. 

Edited by jordan smith

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2 hours ago, LightningLover said:

15th storm of the year! Just heard distant thunder from the SE!

Was par for the course in the 80s and 90s 🤣

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6 minutes ago, James1979 said:

Was par for the course in the 80s and 90s 🤣

I can imagine!

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Just had a fairly hefty convective wind gust go through- Must have been around 50mph?

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I've just seen some distant flashes! :yahoo:

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A couple of loud rumbles of Thunder here in Folkestone; didn't see the first flash as I wasn't expecting it but saw the second through closed curtains. Didn't know there was any potential for this today.

EDIT:- tremendous CG strike to the North West of me with the sky lighting up all around with booming thunder. I think its hailstones now by the sound on the window

Edited by J-Me

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8 minutes ago, J-Me said:

A couple of loud rumbles of Thunder here in Folkestone; didn't see the first flash as I wasn't expecting it but saw the second through closed curtains. Didn't know there was any potential for this today.

EDIT:- tremendous CG strike to the North West of me with the sky lighting up all around with booming thunder. I think its hailstones now by the sound on the window

Was very loud! A window rattler with alarms going off down the road

8D909D73-0F66-4160-9C1B-C6EFB4A13476.jpeg

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 19 Oct 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sun 20 Oct 2019

ISSUED 20:24 UTC Fri 18 Oct 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

An upper vortex will reside over the British Isles throughout Saturday, gradually filling and elongating in-situ with time. The resultant cold pool aloft atop relatively warm seas will lead to another day of scattered showers, albeit not as widespread / intense as previous days. However, given a few hundred J/kg, a few isolated lightning strikes will be possible, particularly over open waters of the Irish Sea and English Channel, and adjacent coasts (such as west Wales, Kent and Sussex etc). Some small hail and gusty winds will be possible from the most intense showers.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-10-19

 

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 23 Oct 2019 - 05:59 UTC Thu 24 Oct 2019

ISSUED 19:20 UTC Tue 22 Oct 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

An Atlantic frontal system will move slowly and erratically eastwards across the British Isles during Wednesday (and into Thursday). The post-frontal environment will be characterised by marginal instability as a largescale upper trough gradually approaches from the west. As a result, scattered showers will affect some western parts of Ireland and Scotland during Wednesday night, but convective depth and overall instability suggests lightning will be rather isolated (if any).

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-10-23

 

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16 hours ago, Paul said:

Friday's still looking very wet on the 15z UKV. Really sharp temperature gradient too, and a proper convergence line along the front - could make for an intense squall line on it. 

Mild vs cold air:
airmass.png

Winds converging along the front - heavy rain and a likely squall line. 
convergance.png prec.png

Then later a really clean tail end with clearer skies behind.

front.png

Rain totals looking sizeable through Friday and into Saturday before it clears. 

rt1.png  rt2.png

Could be some tornadic spin ups along that front I think gfs_srh_eur60.thumb.png.3147eb9917c5df8e2692670881f48476.png gfs_srh_eur66.thumb.png.c68066c28ea0424c1df7df887c5d4db4.png gfs_srh_eur69.thumb.png.1136e13b93fb4bd98e5931a1975198d6.png gfs_stp_eur60.thumb.png.3b1d4794d90493c7bb0b17e7a7c44a49.pnggfs_stp_eur63.thumb.png.ba6f32b2213ee0aea149b291b5f75d8c.pnggfs_stp_eur66.thumb.png.fa4aa30350742922183442a8e4fca606.png and some big convective gusts likely too 1137814017_gfs_gusts_eur60(1).thumb.png.13f576c635c84578a6fe44ca0d10c6d9.pnggfs_gusts_eur63.thumb.png.60d3ccda43ee8b88a1f6179b19288f3b.pnggfs_gusts_eur66.thumb.png.15aef006ccaa74ff803de39bf5e3ef9c.png  will get a better idea once the short range models firm up over the next day or so.  

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 24 Oct 2019 - 05:59 UTC Fri 25 Oct 2019

ISSUED 18:45 UTC Wed 23 Oct 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

A complex pattern will evolve on Thursday, with a largescale upper trough over the Atlantic slowly approaching the British Isles, but also absorbing a portion of the Iberian cut-off upper low as it becomes stretched and pulled northwards over SE England during the middle part of Thursday daytime. The net result will likely see an increase in precipitation coverage and intensity as two frontal boundaries straddling CS / SE England, Midlands and East Anglia become engaged by the increased forcing aloft. Given the presence of a weak thermal plume advected northwards from SW France, embedded deep convection will lead to the threat of heavy rainfall in places, bringing the risk of some localised surface water flooding. 

A few hundred J/kg CAPE seems likely within this plume, which may be sufficient for some sporadic lightning late morning and into the afternoon hours - however, given saturated profiles this aspect is rather uncertain, and confidence is too low to introduce a SLGT. However, we have added an additional area to better highlight where some sporadic lightning could occur - this may be upgraded to a low-end SLGT if confidence improves.

Elsewhere, the post-frontal environment will offer scattered showers in places, most frequent along exposed western and northwestern coasts. In general, the depth of convection will tend to be too shallow / restricted for much in the way of lightning. The deepest convection will be found over NW Scotland.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-10-24

 

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