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Storms and Convective discussion - 28th July 2019 onwards

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2 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Quite an active line of storms off western France, drifting NNE, if these continue across NW France and English Channel, wouldn't be surprised if Met O issue upgrade warning for SE England as storms may co-incide with rush hour

182103120_Screenshot_20191014-130353_SamsungInternet.thumb.jpg.879ed4fc90011aaf3afbe347911538aa.jpg

... and yes, have to pinch yourself that it's mid October. But it's 25-26C and humid across central France right now, so plenty of fuel

 

They have just issued an amber thunderstorm warning now 

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Amber warning?! We haven’t even had one of those all summer over here, and it’s October! 😮

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Latest UKV has shifted things a little bit further East. Ties in with the amber warning.

viewimage.thumb.png.26e131e5c2f67a2eaa9978d6c7e343e9.png 813634638_viewimage(1).thumb.png.faa8765be262503bd1f0a4b59a1ad14a.png

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all down to radar watching now   Met office does go for  for the heavier downpours  to affect further East.  The latest Icon 9z  pushes it further West    then heavyish showers around London area around 10pm tonight     Either way  someone will get a soaking 

image.thumb.png.c136ba53333c9ffc4c756c8c60a3a4e8.pngimage.thumb.png.0e09d1b0c24c83ec0415b782b9915b27.png  

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Here's EURO4 6z take on it:

anim_mhy9.gif

It looks like the second wave up from France through London into the evening is the area of interest re thunder.

Edited by Mike Poole

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absolutely hammering down here anyway - IF i was in the firing line, i doubt I would even notice the difference.

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Amber for the South East, eh? Well well. I'll watch with interest now, and observe the hole in the potential storms developing that will ensure they completely miss Reigate!  😎

Looks good for October. Fingers crossed!

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It has to be said An amber for thunder in October is 😮

The fact I am nowhere near 🤣

But in all fairness, my daughter is going to Brownie camp tonight in the woods and a Thunderstorm wouldn't be ideal.

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Those are SOME storms in western France.

And an amber thunderstorm warning? For mid October? 😳

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First cell is dipping it’s toes into the channel... Let’s just see how this goes.

Edited by LightningLover

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Just now, TomW said:

France is lighting up!

Incredible, isn’t it? October too! If we manage to get a good thunderstorm event this evening, it will serve as a two-day-late birthday present for me, haha.

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1 minute ago, LightningLover said:

Incredible, isn’t it? October too! If we manage to get a good thunderstorm event this evening, it will serve as a two-day-late birthday present for me, haha.

Im right at the corner in kent, hoping for a good show, thats if it does not miss me.

 

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I just checked the Essex weather twitter feed and they are saying 6.30 - 7pm for thunderstorms to arrive here. Is it me or does that timing seem a bit early for mid Essex.

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A look at the radar over France:

lastradar_tlf6.gif

Quite something to see a line of storms form stretching virtually the length of the country!  I imagine the amber warning is for the event that this strings across one fairly localized part of the SE in the next few hours.

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7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

A look at the radar over France:

lastradar_tlf6.gif

Quite something to see a line of storms form stretching virtually the length of the country!  I imagine the amber warning is for the event that this strings across one fairly localized part of the SE in the next few hours.

do you think it will hit me?

 

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Well, that storm that was crossing over the channel has almost completely died out... 😕

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Distant thunder in the channel,getting darker..

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23 minutes ago, Mitch perrott said:

do you think it will hit me?

 

Maybe, looks like it may be further West though.  How electrified it remains as it reaches UK may be an issue, it could just dump an awful lot of rain!

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1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Maybe, looks like it may be further West though.  How electrified it remains as it reaches UK may be an issue, it could just dump an awful lot of rain!

fingers crossed we will at least hear some thunder, looks like it will hit so far

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