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Storms and Convective discussion - 28th July 2019 onwards

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3 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

THINDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED EVER AGAIIIIIOOOOOOOONNNNN!

Thinderstorms? Is that what you call them now your chances are very slim. Ha ha.

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 13 Sep 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sat 14 Sep 2019

ISSUED 16:46 UTC Thu 12 Sep 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

Scattered showers will affect NW Scotland and the Northern Isles at times on Friday, although as with previous days the depth of convection will be rather shallow, and coupled with meagre instability suggests the risk of lightning is very low.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-09-13

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 16 Sep 2019 - 05:59 UTC Tue 17 Sep 2019

ISSUED 19:13 UTC Sun 15 Sep 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

Scattered showers will affect the Northern Isles in particular during Monday (especially Shetland), with convection perhaps just deep enough for an isolated lightning strike - however the risk is considered very low.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-09-16

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There's a potential for storms in the SW late Saturday night and into Sunday, but once again it's too far away to make predictions like this.

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2 hours ago, zmstorm said:

There's a potential for storms in the SW late Saturday night and into Sunday, but once again it's too far away to make predictions like this.

Temps look like they’ll climb quite nicely on Saturday. Might even take the paddleboard down to the beach 🙂

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Guest

There is no doubt that I am one of the biggest 'greenage' enthusiasts on here and despite the absence of EF5s, I would like to sound out the idea of organizing a Meet somewhere, holding a Twister screening perhaps and generally having a social, before the winter sets in and everybody gets seasonal affective disorder. Strickly for Netweather Forecasters, Forum Hosts and humble posters like myself? Nathan Rao is not invited!

Maybe such things already go on and somebody could let me know where and when?

Edited by Guest

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Still looking interesting for the SW on late Saturday and Sunday.

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 20 Sep 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sat 21 Sep 2019

ISSUED 17:15 UTC Thu 19 Sep 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

Most areas will be void of lightning through Friday and Friday night as upper ridging persists, only slowly retreating to the east. However, in doing so an increasing southerly flow aloft will encourage advection of an increasingly warm, moist low-level airmass from Biscay towards CS / SW England by the end of Friday night. This will be most marked in the 850-900mb layers initially, due to isentropic upglide.

Subtle forcing aloft coupled with moistening profiles on the forward side of the approaching largescale Atlantic upper trough may result in some elevated convection developing during the early hours of Saturday morning - but more espe

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-09-20

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BBC Weather's takes tomorrow overnight:

BBC.png

BBC 0.png

BBC 1.png

BBC 2.png

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Well I genuinely can’t complain about the convective season this year, having personally witnessed 10 thunderstorms right from my location!! Incredibly, 4 of which occurred over 24 hours (~25-26th July).

I also witnessed the best elevated nocturnal t-storm I’ve seen so far, in Mid-June. I hope everyone else is happy with their share, and let’s see what this weekend brings... Perhaps an explosive finale...? We’ll see! Best of luck everyone! 🙂 

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8 hours ago, Josh Rubio said:

What’s the potential looking like for Sunday?

Not too bad, Im hoping to get some juicy storms Sunday Morning.

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It’s unlikely to be an explosive finale, CW looks good but reading further into it confidence for lightning is rather low - so I wouldn’t hang a hat on tonight’s potential if you’re searching for one last hurrah for 2019’s convective season in the UK.

My take on it is that there may well be one or two discreet and relatively long-lived but weak thunderstorms passing through, and some sporadic activity more generally around this - but possibly nothing to get too excited about.

Better than nothing I guess, but the fact this system is ushering in a week of rain makes me feel a little sad that the warm weather is beginning to ebb away 😔 

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These developed quickly.

Some lightning being detected in them now as I type.

NW.png

NW1.png

NW2.png

NW3.png

NW4.png

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21 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Keep typing! 😝

No need to, they are developing really nicely 😂

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Newquay looks like the next target, some heavy showers developed quickly near there.

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Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 21 Sep 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sun 22 Sep 2019

ISSUED 07:12 UTC Sat 21 Sep 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

Atlantic upper trough will disrupt during Saturday, digging towards Biscay while becoming increasingly negatively-tilted. As a result, continued advection of a relatively high Theta-W airmass will occur from Biscay across SW England and Ireland, aided by isentropic upglide and a strong low-level jet. A corridor of elevated instability will exist, rooted from around 850mb, with 300-500 J/kg MLCAPE at times. This whole NNW - SSE oriented instability plume will shift gradually northeastwards through this forecast period, straddling a zone from SW Scotland to SE England by 06z Sunday.

Subtle forcing running northwestwards along this instability plume, ahead of the largescale upper trough, will encourage pulses of medium-level instability release at various times through Saturday and Saturday night. It is likely clusters of elevated showers will develop in a rather semi-random fashion, drifting to the N or NNW.

Consequently, sporadic lightning activity is likely in places within the instability plume, but trying to pick specific areas where this is more likely is rather difficult due to the crucial phasing of subtle forcing overlapping sufficient instability, which in itself is a little meagre. Given the uncertainty and marginality, a broad low-end SLGT has been issued for now, but confidence on much in the way of lightning is rather low and it is likely many areas within the SLGT will remain void of lightning.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2019-09-22&id=2b62e831-8fb6-42a0-8cad-3965b6d1ed4a&details

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I really dunno, estofex haven’t issued anything (which in itself isn’t too much of an issue) but neither have the UKWW peeps - which makes me think what we see developing out in open water is just a cruel tease

🤔

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Interesting development, seemingly heading NNW at the moment!

image.png.469caabcf24f6b3f37ef008ebdf96fa7.png

Edited by Dorsetbred

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The UKV hints at some developments coming up from the Cherbourg Peninsula this evening.

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I finish work at 7.30 this evening.  Should I stay and do overtime that is the question?!

Edit. I will wait and see, as that Irish storm appears to have died already

Edited by Another Kent clipper

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