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Storms and Convective discussion - 28th July 2019 onwards

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How are things looking for storm potential for the Sussex Coast overnight tonight? Had surprises here before

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Jules777 said:

How are things looking for storm potential for the Sussex Coast overnight tonight? Had surprises here before

Overnight it looks marginal for this area but for those further west there’s better potential for something - but I doubt anywhere is going to see anything spectacular.

During the day tomo the risk moves further north into the midlands (quell surprise!) and the far south doesn’t seem particularly primed for anything.

In short: it’s pretty much business as usual with the south east getting little in terms of lightning, rain or even cloud - but maybe more luck for those further inland

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc

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Convective Weather seem to have withdrawn their forecast 

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Overnight it looks marginal for this area but for those further west there’s better potential for something - but I doubt anywhere is going to see anything spectacular.

During the day tomo the risk moves further north into the midlands (quell surprise!) and the far south doesn’t seem particularly primed for anything.

In short: it’s pretty much business as usual with the south east getting little in terms of lightning, rain or even cloud - but maybe more luck for those further inland

well according to Metcheck they have the risk starting in Northern England tomorrow afternoon then extending south to the midlands and NE England later but they will update tomorrow after overnight model runs so nothing set in stone whatsoever

Edited by Gordon Webb

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No unexpected surprise this time,I`m ready for something thundery.

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All seems a bit haphazard to me.

Were forecasting lightning displays for inland wales and northwestern parts yesterday afternoon, then switched to eastern and southern areas, and now hardly anything and only for northern areas.

One of the most quickly changed forecasts i have ever known.🙄

 

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This is showing thundery potential early Wednesday. Can imagine anything that may pop up will be hit and miss 

Screenshot_20190826-193841.png

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A thunderstorm has just developed out in the west coast of France. Perhaps that is what forecasters are looking at for a thundery potential in the SW?

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, zmstorm said:

A thunderstorm has just developed out in the west coast of France. Perhaps that is what forecasters are looking at for a thundery potential in the SW?

There is no potential. 

Apart from some dynamic rainfall in the far Southwest, it looks pretty mundane. The UKV is showing some action from parts of Yorkshire and up towards the Northwest tomorrow afternoon.

Edited by Mapantz

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Im thinking on the same lines as you mapantz, due to convective weather issuing then removing their forecast etc and its nice with a lovely cool breeze.

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Tomorrow is a bit tricky to forecast due to model variances. What we should expect is elevated showers for the south west and parts of Wales overnight. Then it gets tricky due to a cap ,cloudiness due to elevated convection, low level convergence not lining up with upper level dynamics. Dew points of around 17 or 18 C which matches today's dewpoints in some places could release a significant amount of instability.

Think we need to take a closer look in the morning.

nmmuk3hrprecip.png

gfs_thetae_eur27.png

sound-WestMidlands-24.png

gfs_srh_eur27.png

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Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 26 Aug 2019 - 05:59 UTC Tue 27 Aug 2019

ISSUED 19:49 UTC Mon 26 Aug 2019

ISSUED BY: Chris/Dan

UPDATE 19:49 UTC SLGT introduced to parts of the English Channel / Dorset, Wilts etc where a few scattered elevated thunderstorms may occur late on Monday night into Tuesday morning. Uncertainty remains over timing and coverage of any lightning activity, and it is possible isolated pockets of lightning may occur elsewhere over Devon/Cornwall, but the most favoured corridor is essentially Lyme Bay

An upper trough will push near southwestern parts of Britain on Monday and the associated PVA and mid level instability could trigger scattered showers on Monday night into Tuesday morning. 

It should be noted that thunderstorm activity is not expected during the day on Monday, and that the risk of thunderstorms spreading in from the south-southwest are not expected until overnight on Monday and into the early hours of Tuesday (the end of the forecast period). There is the potential for an upgrade to a SLIGHT along the southern part of this region if model consensus improves. 

An update and more detailed discussion will likely follow Monday morning. 

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-08-26

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An accurate forecast for storms ;)

 

BEF7C23E-E097-4BE0-BD1D-A21CEB778ED0.thumb.jpeg.6e99480373f6473da3e8bfc3d9737e6b.jpeg

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UKMO forecast radar is keen to initiate storms across Eastern England later tomorrow afternoon.

image.thumb.png.6b9f051e81cbc1f715508008507a497a.pngimage.thumb.png.0264445e94978654da1c1620a9900da4.png 

The GFS 12z has a shallow low pressure feature over Eastern England so the potential is there. However there is a lot of uncertainty and I think that is why the Meto have held back on issuing a thunderstorm warning for now.

We shall see...

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26 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

UKMO forecast radar is keen to initiate storms across Eastern England later tomorrow afternoon.

image.thumb.png.6b9f051e81cbc1f715508008507a497a.pngimage.thumb.png.0264445e94978654da1c1620a9900da4.png 

The GFS 12z has a shallow low pressure feature over Eastern England so the potential is there. However there is a lot of uncertainty and I think that is why the Meto have held back on issuing a thunderstorm warning for now.

We shall see...

Now this would benefit me if it plays out ;)

 

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 27 Aug 2019 - 05:59 UTC Wed 28 Aug 2019

ISSUED 20:33 UTC Mon 26 Aug 2019

ISSUED BY: Chris/Dan

A sharp upper trough will approach the British Isles from the Altantic, as a frontal boundary moves into Ireland. A shortwave trough will also move northwards across Britain during day and this will help to trigger scattered thunderstorms by mid-to-late Tuesday afternoon and into the evening. 

Elevated morning convection may still be ongoing across southwestern portions of England and Wales at 0600 although this should weaken through the morning before the diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms re-develop. 

High surface temperatures (in excess of 30C in places) across central and eastern Britain will help to generate up to 1000 J/kg of CAPE by the afternoon. Steep lapse rates will also be present, although the main area of instability will be displaced slightly east of the shortwave that will move northeastwards across the Midlands by mid-afternoon. Deep layer shear through early afternoon will be around 30kts (although decreasing into the late afternoon and evening). The combination of shear and instability may trigger some severe weather during the early phase of the thunderstorm development. A supercell or two could be possible for a time producing hail up to 2cm in diameter.

The deep, rather high based convection (due in part to the surface temp and dew-point separation) is being triggered in the high res models around 1300-1400 in southern and western portions of the SLIGHT risk area before growing upscale as it moves northeastwards into a small MCS. The remnants of the MCS will move off the coast of NE England / SE Scotland around or just after midnight. 

A MODERATE risk will be considered for subsequent updates primarily for parts of Cambridgeshire, Lincolnshire and south Yorkshire providing model consensus improves. 

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-08-27

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Liking the sounds of the latest update from Convective weather tomorrow. Might be one last chance in something thundery before Summers over

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8 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 27 Aug 2019 - 05:59 UTC Wed 28 Aug 2019

ISSUED 20:33 UTC Mon 26 Aug 2019

ISSUED BY: Chris/Dan

A sharp upper trough will approach the British Isles from the Altantic, as a frontal boundary moves into Ireland. A shortwave trough will also move northwards across Britain during day and this will help to trigger scattered thunderstorms by mid-to-late Tuesday afternoon and into the evening. 

Elevated morning convection may still be ongoing across southwestern portions of England and Wales at 0600 although this should weaken through the morning before the diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms re-develop. 

High surface temperatures (in excess of 30C in places) across central and eastern Britain will help to generate up to 1000 J/kg of CAPE by the afternoon. Steep lapse rates will also be present, although the main area of instability will be displaced slightly east of the shortwave that will move northeastwards across the Midlands by mid-afternoon. Deep layer shear through early afternoon will be around 30kts (although decreasing into the late afternoon and evening). The combination of shear and instability may trigger some severe weather during the early phase of the thunderstorm development. A supercell or two could be possible for a time producing hail up to 2cm in diameter.

The deep, rather high based convection (due in part to the surface temp and dew-point separation) is being triggered in the high res models around 1300-1400 in southern and western portions of the SLIGHT risk area before growing upscale as it moves northeastwards into a small MCS. The remnants of the MCS will move off the coast of NE England / SE Scotland around or just after midnight. 

A MODERATE risk will be considered for subsequent updates primarily for parts of Cambridgeshire, Lincolnshire and south Yorkshire providing model consensus improves. 

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-08-27

OH MY GOD, THIS IS THE FIRST TIME I HAVE GOTTEN EXCITED SINCE I ARRIVED IN FLORIDA

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

Liking the sounds of the latest update from Convective weather tomorrow. Might be one last chance in something thundery before Summers over

I will be working when it kicks off.  This is last hoorah of 2019.  Wet, bright, loud, and homegrown.  Edit, zmstorm has taken the weather with him, to quote Crowded House.

IMG_20190826_214211.png

Edited by Another Kent clipper

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Theres a black broken line over my house, Does that mean slightly severe?

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12 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 27 Aug 2019 - 05:59 UTC Wed 28 Aug 2019

ISSUED 20:33 UTC Mon 26 Aug 2019

ISSUED BY: Chris/Dan

A sharp upper trough will approach the British Isles from the Altantic, as a frontal boundary moves into Ireland. A shortwave trough will also move northwards across Britain during day and this will help to trigger scattered thunderstorms by mid-to-late Tuesday afternoon and into the evening. 

Elevated morning convection may still be ongoing across southwestern portions of England and Wales at 0600 although this should weaken through the morning before the diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms re-develop. 

High surface temperatures (in excess of 30C in places) across central and eastern Britain will help to generate up to 1000 J/kg of CAPE by the afternoon. Steep lapse rates will also be present, although the main area of instability will be displaced slightly east of the shortwave that will move northeastwards across the Midlands by mid-afternoon. Deep layer shear through early afternoon will be around 30kts (although decreasing into the late afternoon and evening). The combination of shear and instability may trigger some severe weather during the early phase of the thunderstorm development. A supercell or two could be possible for a time producing hail up to 2cm in diameter.

The deep, rather high based convection (due in part to the surface temp and dew-point separation) is being triggered in the high res models around 1300-1400 in southern and western portions of the SLIGHT risk area before growing upscale as it moves northeastwards into a small MCS. The remnants of the MCS will move off the coast of NE England / SE Scotland around or just after midnight. 

A MODERATE risk will be considered for subsequent updates primarily for parts of Cambridgeshire, Lincolnshire and south Yorkshire providing model consensus improves. 

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-08-27

looks like all the activity will be mainly to my east as I'm barely in the slight risk zone which suits me fine as I have 2 overgrowing lawns that need my attention and I suspect Lightning , torrential rain and lawnmowers won't mix well together

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4 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

Theres a black broken line over my house, Does that mean slightly severe?

it might mean severely slight

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