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Storms and Convective discussion - 28th July 2019 onwards

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I have decided to post this as I think this is one of the best storms on my trip to Florida.

This storm happened the day after the supercell thunderstorm. This storm also happens to have a lot of CG strikes, as usual in Florida.

If you haven't noticed already, this is part 1. I would of made it longer but about 5 minutes after the video ends a big bunch of very convective cumulus clouds starts dropping rain right above me, eventually producing some VERY close lightning bolts, in fact, the closest bolts I have ever seen, which is why I have decided to put them all in a different video.

 

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GFS still hinting the idea of storms around next Thursday. Hopefully this could be a chance for a proper final thundery breakdown before summers over 

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Posted (edited)

This was the most memorable storm I had in Florida.

I have never seen so many close strikes in my entire lifetime, one in which struck near a house 50 meters away from me.

There was a storm that I was observing 20 miles away. In front of that storm, behind me, a line of very convective cumulus clouds stretching from Lakeland to Kissimmee starting to drop very heavy rain, in which at one point it was partly cloudy with a storm 20 miles away, and less than 5 minutes later, you could see nothing but rain and close lightning bolts.

Haines City (my location) was right underneath this which resulted in very close bolts striking all over the place.

Apart from the strikes, this storm produced significant rainfall. Half a foot of rain was recorded in an hour, and it overflowed my swimming pool and flooded the front yard of my house.

I seriously recommend watching this. (You don't have to if you don't want to 🙂 ) I edited the boring parts and included all the close bolts, so that you don't have to wait a long time to see one.

There are timestamps in the descriptions if you want to see the CLOSEST bolts, including the one that nearly struck a house.

 

Edited by zmstorm

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I think you encountered a bit of heavy drizzle there. LOL

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There's a chance of some thunderstorms moving NE on Monday night and early Tuesday morning.

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2 hours ago, zmstorm said:

There's a chance of some thunderstorms moving NE on Monday night and early Tuesday morning.

Here are some screenshots of what could happen:

Possible Storm.png

Possible Storm 2.png

Possible Storm 3.png

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On 23/08/2019 at 19:48, zmstorm said:

This was the most memorable storm I had in Florida.

I have never seen so many close strikes in my entire lifetime, one in which struck near a house 50 meters away from me.

There was a storm that I was observing 20 miles away. In front of that storm, behind me, a line of very convective cumulus clouds stretching from Lakeland to Kissimmee starting to drop very heavy rain, in which at one point it was partly cloudy with a storm 20 miles away, and less than 5 minutes later, you could see nothing but rain and close lightning bolts.

Haines City (my location) was right underneath this which resulted in very close bolts striking all over the place.

Apart from the strikes, this storm produced significant rainfall. Half a foot of rain was recorded in an hour, and it overflowed my swimming pool and flooded the front yard of my house.

I seriously recommend watching this. (You don't have to if you don't want to 🙂 ) I edited the boring parts and included all the close bolts, so that you don't have to wait a long time to see one.

There are timestamps in the descriptions if you want to see the CLOSEST bolts, including the one that nearly struck a house.

 

Oof! 8.39 - that was like a bomb going off! Just interested - what's the pool house framework made from? Is it a very fine mesh? 

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Regarding Monday night into Tuesday, what’s the potential looking like? 

I notice BBC’s interactive map show a band of precipitation moving north east over the early hours however there’s no graphics or anything in the text forecast to back this up?

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9 hours ago, Josh Rubio said:

Regarding Monday night into Tuesday, what’s the potential looking like? 

I notice BBC’s interactive map show a band of precipitation moving north east over the early hours however there’s no graphics or anything in the text forecast to back this up?

Not showing much potential now by the looks of it. Although Tuesday looks like some afternoon storms for parts of Wales and western England.

11 hours ago, Norfolk Sheep said:

Oof! 8.39 - that was like a bomb going off! Just interested - what's the pool house framework made from? Is it a very fine mesh? 

I'm not actually sure tbh, it was some sort of metal but not the type of metal I've ever felt before. It probably is just mesh or some other metal I've never heard of.

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2 hours ago, zmstorm said:

Signs of instability?

IMG_6463[1].JPG

No more than yesterday - but there is a small chance of a storm later according to Metcheck.

I strongly doubt anything will occur

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15 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

No more than yesterday - but there is a small chance of a storm later according to Metcheck.

I strongly doubt anything will occur

Same here, but I think Metcheck are looking at that small shower near the Channel Islands. They probably think it will intensify when it moves on land.

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Tuesday perhaps? looking interesting.................?

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52 minutes ago, zmstorm said:

Same here, but I think Metcheck are looking at that small shower near the Channel Islands. They probably think it will intensify when it moves on land.

This was from their write up the other day - so it was purely based on models at the time - perhaps there’s enough instability out there but a strong cap is holding everything apart.

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Lincolnshire looks to be in a good spot for Tuesday evening if it plays out 

ukstormrisk.png

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2 minutes ago, AMeltedFlake said:

In regards to Tuesday, are we looking towards to eastern areas then? 🙂

Eastern? I thought the storms would be near the NW? Or am I getting the days mixed up

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1 hour ago, zmstorm said:

Eastern? I thought the storms would be near the NW? Or am I getting the days mixed up

Being honest, I'm confused too, GFS/UKV and a few others are showing instability in the east, but other models are showing the west instead!

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 26 Aug 2019 - 05:59 UTC Tue 27 Aug 2019

ISSUED 19:55 UTC Sun 25 Aug 2019

ISSUED BY: Chris

An upper trough will push near southwestern parts of Britain on Monday and the associated PVA and mid level instability could trigger scattered showers on Monday night into Tuesday morning. 

It should be noted that thunderstorm activity is not expected during the day on Monday, and that the risk of thunderstorms spreading in from the south-southwest are not expected until overnight on Monday and into the early hours of Tuesday (the end of the forecast period). There is the potential for an upgrade to a SLIGHT along the southern part of this region if model consensus improves. 

An update and more detailed discussion will likely follow Monday morning. 

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-08-26

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It turns out that when I uploaded the most recent Haines City thunderstorm, I missed out some clips due to some importation errors. I am able to upload them now.

I have decided to upload it as a separate video because I wouldn't want to delete that video and put the bonus clips in.

So here it is - more strikes from the storm on the 29th July.

This video does contain some close strikes, but not as close. (and if you want, go to 1:59 - some REALLY LOUD thunder! 🙂 )

Near the end of the video contains a dazzling display of anvil crawlers, imitating a show of fireworks.

 

 

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So, does anyone know what's happening with convective activity on Tuesday?  Some models are suggesting thundery activity to the north, and some models are suggesting thundery activity to the east. Does anyone know what's going on?

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I'm sure SS will come up with the synopsis later.

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Can we keep anything not UK convective related to the appropriate threads, please? Or make separate threads for storms that are in other parts of the world. Cheers.

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