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Storms and Convective discussion - 28th July 2019 onwards


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Had a huge storm yesterday afternoon.

Picture of last nights supercell in Edinburgh taken from portobello beach 

Satellite infra red imagery from the early hours of this morning showed quite a dark core for the low pressure system out in the bay of Biscay. I would take this to show that the low pressure system w

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Another good day for 2019's convective capital, Aberdeen.  For those that suffer from astropophobia, on the other hand, come to London! 

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 17 Aug 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sun 18 Aug 2019

ISSUED 07:59 UTC Sat 17 Aug 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

Broad upper trough covers the British Isles through Saturday, the main upper low centre remaining over the Atlantic to the west of Scotland but with a series of shortwaves rotating counter-clockwise along its southern and eastern flank. The broad cold pool will create an unstable environment with marginally-steep mid-level lapse rates and a couple hundred J/kg CAPE.

As such, scattered showers will affect many areas at various times through this forecast period, and hence difficult to pinpoint specific areas for when/where lightning may occur. In general, the best potential for lightning will be associated with the passage of these shortwaves - so the focus on Saturday lunchtime/afternoon will be northern and eastern Scotland where CAPE increases and mid-level lapse rates steepen as a shortwave moves through, and similarly the Celtic Sea towards the Bristol Channel during the early hours of Sunday.

The most intense cells may produce hail up to 1.5cm in diameter and gusty winds.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-08-17

IMG_20190817_122647.png

Edited by Another Kent clipper
Forgot the map
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Not this Monday... next Monday.

Windy.com showing some nighttime storms travelling over SE/E England before reaching parts of NE England in the morning. Then, in the afternoon, the heat could spark off some storms over Northern France and the channel and could take almost the exact same path as the nighttime one.

Yes - I know this is far away, but these charts are nice to look at. In about two months time, you most likely won't see charts like this.

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@Flash bang flash bang etc Thursday doesn't look promising now for convective activity (I could've guessed) but I assume sometime around late August/early September will be a time to see some nice lightning displays.

Edited by zmstorm
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10 hours ago, zmstorm said:

Not this Monday... next Monday.

Windy.com showing some nighttime storms travelling over SE/E England before reaching parts of NE England in the morning. Then, in the afternoon, the heat could spark off some storms over Northern France and the channel and could take almost the exact same path as the nighttime one.

Yes - I know this is far away, but these charts are nice to look at. In about two months time, you most likely won't see charts like this.

Windy.png.png

Windy.com 2.png

Windy.com 3.png

Windy.com 4.png

Windy.com 5.png

@Flash bang flash bang etc Thursday doesn't look promising now for convective activity (I could've guessed) but I assume sometime around late August/early September will be a time to see some nice lightning displays.

First day I’m away on holiday ?

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Looking at Ventusky for Monday week the direction of motion looks to be W to E, so I’m not sure if imports are likely.

It looks to be some kind of low - I have a feeling the scenario will evolve over time and end up with the low heading across the midlands, down the east coast a little and then heading into Europe.

Could be some basic organised convection in it but temperatures don’t look anything special. Things have plenty of time to change though.

Hope anything special can wait until after we get back on the 9th ?

 

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52 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Lol, or it might not

Wonder if we might get something sporadic this afternoon?

If that cell didn't electrify then probably other sharp sporadic showers probably won't electrify. Those showers in Scotland look like they could.

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This is another angle of the supercell thunderstorm on the 28th July 2019.

This produced loads of CG lightning, especially the first 5 minutes of the vid (which I recommend you watch!) ?

This is one of the best storm videos I have ever recorded, if not, the best I have ever recorded.

 

 

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 19 Aug 2019 - 05:59 UTC Tue 20 Aug 2019

ISSUED 20:11 UTC Sun 18 Aug 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

Scattered showers are expected to develop quite widely across the British Isles on Monday, beneath a broad upper trough with marginally-steep mid-level lapse rates and marginal instability. Slightly better instability overlapping with reasonable shear gives a better chance for a few lightning strikes within the low-end SLGT across eastern England. Gusty winds and small hail will be possible. Elsewhere convective depth is likely to be too shallow for much in the way of lightning.

Later on Monday night an area of showery rain will spread eastwards across southern Ireland and the Celtic Sea, and may be capable of an odd isolated lightning strike.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-08-19

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Was looking for lightning videos from Portugal while I was on the loo and I found this.

Looks like a really unusual storm - the lightning is really abrupt and bright - not to mention the severity and number of forks visible.

Shame it’s so short but I imagine in a storm like that you don’t want to be outside for too long!

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6 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

 

Shame it’s so short but I imagine in a storm like that you don’t want to be outside for too long!

That sound ❤️ Sweet sweet sound! 

Great Vid! 

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7 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Was looking for lightning videos from Portugal while I was on the loo and I found this.

Looks like a really unusual storm - the lightning is really abrupt and bright - not to mention the severity and number of forks visible.

Shame it’s so short but I imagine in a storm like that you don’t want to be outside for too long!

I went to Portugal in August 2016 and one evening a storm started brewing in Morocco and the storm made it's way to the south coast of Portugal.

There was a spectacular lightning display at night when it moved towards us, a lot of lightning in that storm - and a lot of forks too.

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Chance of a few thunderstorms today where weak low level convergence takes place.  Instability is rather meager and winds look to be straight line but increasing with height. This should give some updraft downdraft separation with upper cloud pushing out ahead of the storm. So storms might be long lived but fairly zipping along. Convergence zone look to feed moisture from the north rather than the south and with relatively low dew points and temperatures we should not expect really strong updrafts. There is however just a hint of winds at the 700hPa to 800hPa level being a little stronger towards the East mid afternoon.

Storm risks look fairly low with perhaps the greatest risk from convective gusts. Worth keeping an eye on but unlikely to be a classic storm day.

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