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Storms and Convective discussion - 28th July 2019 onwards

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Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, Josh Rubio said:

What’s it looking like for Central areas tomorrow? I know the MO have issued a weather warning for thunderstorms but will it be the classic ‘thundery rain’ embedded with any heavier rain or will there be a mix of sunshine and showers? Thanks.

Hi Josh

as it stands,back edge thundery rain then clearing to sunshine and heavy thundery showers.

16:00-22:00

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https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/map/#?map=Rainfall&zoom=7&lon=-2.89&lat=52.39&fcTime=1565751600

there could be some thundery showers fri evening/night,watch this space.

Edited by Allseasons-si

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 14 Aug 2019 - 05:59 UTC Thu 15 Aug 2019

ISSUED 20:32 UTC Tue 13 Aug 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

A broad westerly flow covers the British Isles on Wednesday, with a rather complex surface pattern. A split frontal system will slide eastwards across England and Wales, with a period of dynamic rain followed by extensive low cloud / drizzle characteristic of a shallow moist zone (SMZ). If sufficient cloud breaks can develop, heating of this moist low-level airmass (dewpoints 15-17C) could yield a few hundred J/kg CAPE. A marked dry intrusion will overspread this SMZ, effectively acting as a weak cap to surface-based convection.

Nonetheless, the SMZ will be reasonably deep with high moisture content, and carries the risk at least of a few heavy showers to develop over the Midlands / southern parts of northern England during the afternoon and evening hours. If convection can grow deep enough into the dry layers aloft then some sporadic lightning may occur - otherwise lightning may be rather limited, despite the presence of heavy showers. A low-end SLGT has been introduced to highlight the main area of interest, although confidence of how much lightning may occur is rather low. Localised surface water flooding will be the main threat from very heavy bursts of rain.

Ahead of the main surface trough / low, backed low-level winds and strong shear could allow a low-topped supercell to occur (if convection can grow deep enough). The low cloud bases combined with strong low-level shear / vorticity may allow an isolated weak tornado to occur.

The left exit of an approaching mid/upper-level jet streak will overspread the SMZ during the evening hours, and given near-saturated low-levels this will encourage additional showers to develop even through to late evening across East Midlands / East Anglia / Yorkshire - though this convection may be somewhat elevated (with bases around 900-950mb). Hence the risk of some sporadic lightning may persist well into the evening hours, and may actually develop further offshore over the North Sea on Wednesday night.

Elsewhere, an occluded front will slide eastwards across Ireland and western Scotland during Wednesday daytime, with sufficient insolation allowing reasonable instability to build in advance of this front. A messy mixture of dynamic and convective precipitation seems likely along this frontal boundary, with scope for some embedded sporadic lightning - though the depth of convection is questionable, and so confidence for much in the way of lightning activity is rather low. A low-end SLGT has also been issued here.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-08-14

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Ooooh!!!,i am in the slight box now,forecast put a bit further north than earlier.

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that lightning in the Bristol channel last night, my mate who works on the pilot boats posted a nice vid on facebook with the lightning lighting up the channel out at sea

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I JUST SAW A FLASH OUT IN THE SEA WTH

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11 minutes ago, zmstorm said:

I JUST SAW A FLASH OUT IN THE SEA WTH

you must have a good view from that far inland 😉

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3 minutes ago, staplehurst said:

you must have a good view from that far inland 😉

I live on top of a hill so distant storms come in handy for me. Storm is definitely growing as there is a lot more flashes. The flashes are an orange colour and are surprisingly so bright that I can see the whole of the cumulonimbus cloud that is containing the lightning.

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4 minutes ago, zmstorm said:

I live on top of a hill so distant storms come in handy for me. Storm is definitely growing as there is a lot more flashes. The flashes are an orange colour and are surprisingly so bright that I can see the whole of the cumulonimbus cloud that is containing the lightning.

Are you viewing from Bedford then?

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Just now, Greeny said:

Are you viewing from Bedford then?

Yes I am.

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1 minute ago, zmstorm said:

Yes I am.

Impressive, I'll alert my FB group to it. Some living on the coast might want to have a look out for it.

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Not going to film any more lightning because it's starting to get less frequent and it's starting to travel away from my viewpoint. I've got to admit, I did get some nice shots of lightning! Will upload them tomorrow.

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1 minute ago, zmstorm said:

Not going to film any more lightning because it's starting to get less frequent and it's starting to travel away from my viewpoint. I've got to admit, I did get some nice shots of lightning! Will upload them tomorrow.

Nice job! Its always nice to get a surprise like that.

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Roll of thunder just heard here in amongst the heavy rain.

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Yep thunder heard in Halesowen

 

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This might be a weird question, but can anyone calculate how far this storm was from my location please? (the blue dot is my location)

Thanks!

Lightning Maps.png

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15 minutes ago, zmstorm said:

This might be a weird question, but can anyone calculate how far this storm was from my location please? (the blue dot is my location)

Thanks!

Lightning Maps.png

I would estimate about 160 miles as it about double the distance as the crow flies from Bedford to Ipswich.

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1 minute ago, Supacell said:

I would estimate about 160 miles as it about double the distance as the crow flies from Bedford to Ipswich.

Dang, cheers mate, that's impressive. Being able to see lightning from a distance like that is ridiculous.

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Here is the video of that distant thunderstorm.

Look to the left of the thin red tower to see some flashes.

 

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storms are forecast for here but really dont think it will happen, very chilly and steady rain here right now, all seems to have arrived a cpl of hours later than forecast.

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Posted (edited)

Deleted.

Edited by Allseasons-si

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