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Storms and Convective discussion - 28th July 2019 onwards

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No thunder here but regular heavy downpours.

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Posted (edited)

Diurnal heating opportunities?

Science me.

Edit: just realised my 'arrow' completely disregards Scotland, the convective capital of 2019!

IMG_20190730_100522.png

Edited by Another Kent clipper

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41 minutes ago, Supacell said:

I understand the frustration but wasn't it just last Tuesday evening that you were out in an awesome thunderstorm? Whilst the storms did reach here early hours of Wednesday, they had lost some potency in comparison to further south.

I don't want this to go off topic, as really this should be in the no storms section, but just want to point out that storms are on a large scale a bit more geographically balanced than some make out. There will always be regional variation, and the areas that 'do best' seem to move around year on year. For example, our storm capital Lincolnshire has seen quite few storms this year in comparison to some others.

I went to the Peak District 😂

yes - an awesome dangerous storm that took me 4 hours there and back

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32 minutes ago, Azazel said:

I don't know what the Central South has to do to get a storm this year (last week excluded when almost the whole country got one)

Winchester didn't have that you got lucky! It went east and the other one west. Saw all the lightning but wasn't a direct hit. Still beggars can't be choosers ...

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Do we know when this system will start to move North East? Looks like it's just moving east to me, probably wrong! 

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1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I went to the Peak District 😂

yes - an awesome dangerous storm that took me 4 hours there and back

😂

Sometimes chasing is the only way. On Wednesday early hours there was a storm over Belper and so I didn't have to chase, but it was the first storm since 2015. If I didn't chase I think I would have forgotten what thunder sounds like in real life and not on video.

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constant strong sunshine here now up to 21C with a dewpoint of 15C. Has to be decent parameters for at least a weak thunderstorm. It'll be interesting when the low spirals its precipitation band into the area.

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4 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

constant strong sunshine here now up to 21C with a dewpoint of 15C. Has to be decent parameters for at least a weak thunderstorm. It'll be interesting when the low spirals its precipitation band into the area.

Same here, looking good. Reminding me a bit of 15/06/16.

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5 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Same here, looking good. Reminding me a bit of 15/06/16.

 

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3 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Same here, looking good. Reminding me a bit of 15/06/16.

As long as we get sunny spells in between the showers, we have a good chance of seeing some storms at various points today. If the first shower introduces cloudier conditions generally then it might just be initial storm activity followed by heavy showers. One thing is for sure.. the rivers are going to be swollen by tomorrow afternoon

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3 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

 

wow thats impressive on time lapse.. incredible building of the towering cumulus not far in.

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21 minutes ago, Supacell said:

😂

Sometimes chasing is the only way. On Wednesday early hours there was a storm over Belper and so I didn't have to chase, but it was the first storm since 2015. If I didn't chase I think I would have forgotten what thunder sounds like in real life and not on video.

Chasing is definitely the answer sometimes. 

Back last week, had I have not made the crucial decision to head over to the Norfolk coast, I would’ve missed out on what I would say was the most proper MCS like system I’ve seen since easily June 2005. It was very 90’s esque, I.e lightning all over the system instead of just easterly confinement. I’d have been kicking myself if I’d have stayed at home! 

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4 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Chasing is definitely the answer sometimes. 

Back last week, had I have not made the crucial decision to head over to the Norfolk coast, I would’ve missed out on what I would say was the most proper MCS like system I’ve seen since easily June 2005. It was very 90’s esque, I.e lightning all over the system instead of just easterly confinement. I’d have been kicking myself if I’d have stayed at home! 

If there had been a higher level of certainty I may have been there too, but it is a long way from here to the Norfolk coast. The storm looked very good though, all of that energy released over Norfolk.

The best storms I have seen have been through chasing. After the heatwave last year there was nothing here, but several rounds of storms over me as i sat watching them in Lincolnshire.

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2 minutes ago, Supacell said:

If there had been a higher level of certainty I may have been there too, but it is a long way from here to the Norfolk coast. The storm looked very good though, all of that energy released over Norfolk.

The best storms I have seen have been through chasing. After the heatwave last year there was nothing here, but several rounds of storms over me as i sat watching them in Lincolnshire.

I remember seeing your vid. What a day that was. Getting the edge of that beast that split over Norfolk and the left Mover made a hit near Skegness! And then that big system coming up from the S/SE over Lincs. That fortunately hit me almost directly with very strong winds and really frequent lightning. That was preceded by some incredible elevated storms at dawn which hit more or less the same areas. A classic day. 

To the here and now, there’s some cumulus starting to now tower up all around, heading in a mainly NW-NNW direction. 

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34 minutes ago, AMeltedFlake said:

Do we know when this system will start to move North East? Looks like it's just moving east to me, probably wrong! 

If you look at the rainfall radar at around 7am you can just make out the centre of circulation off the coast of Salcombe, Devon. By 10am it's zipped up Lyme Bay just of the coast of Lyme Regis, so it would seem to be moving in a north-east direction at the moment. Very pretty symmetry to the rain bands around this low.

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7 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

I remember seeing your vid. What a day that was.

And here is the vid 😁

Clouds are filling in here ahead of the first band of showers which should be here in the next couple of hours.

Doubtful I will chase later today as my area looks ok, although I may decide to head slightly north west depending on what happens.

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Met office a yellow warning for thunderstorms for to day south and west but just hevey thundery rain and no thunder or lightning 

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The energy which was feeding the storm yesterday has mostly gone and the entrainment of cold air is limited now. What we are left with is a filling low with rather messy rain bands (not discreet bands). If we add into that the details from the overnight Camborne Sounding we can see the propensity for high level cloud. This will limit surface temperatures until the low starts to fill a little more. What the Camborne Sounding does show is that the instability is more than forecast from quite moderate surface temperatures.

This is then complicated further by the center of the low not moving north east quite as predicted and only just coming ashore in the last few hours. What we can see is some clearing of the bands to the south of the storm and some weak vorticity bands associated with those bands. Key area from the modelling is North Wales moving into Cumbria but considering the storm track that is likely to shift. So it is another watch and wait and see scenario.

2019073000.03808.skewt.parc.gif

nmmuk3hrprecip12.png

nmmuk3hrprecip15.png

nmmuk3hrprecip18.png

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Looks like good old fashioned showers, no strikes anywhere near, regular or recent.

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Some weak convection here but nothing that might lead me to believe a thunderstorm will develop today. The other negative that had developed in the last hour is a veil of high cloud has limited insolation and also dropped the temperature to 18C which, I suspect, maybe too low to initiate thundery activity. That is of course, if it even reaches this far north. 

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What a thouroughly miserable day here, very regular torrential downpours with very strong gusty winds and no sunshine in between the showers. I would be really surprised if we got any electrical activity round these parts but further north may have more luck.

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 Still sunny and 21.8°C here. 

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Posted (edited)

It looks more like sharp/heavy showers with the odd rumble. The potency of the showers while quite heavy rainfall total they  aren't quite enough to cause intense thunderstorms - perhaps an odd rumble. You'll  be lucky to get one though. 

Edited by sjamess90

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