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Supacell

Storms and Convective discussion - 28th July 2019 onwards

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1 hour ago, Chris.R said:

 Towel has been well and truly thrown in here for the last hour or 2. Had a few heavy showers but no lightning made it across the dee. Never mind, Monday/Tuesday is my next chance. 

My towel has been laying outside of my shed since 2017. 🤠

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2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

My towel has been laying outside of my shed since 2017. 🤠

Yeahhhh but you live next to the sunny coastline!.

So yano.. Swings and Roundabouts and stuff..

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Lots of heavy showers packing into the SW, S Wales and SW Midlands. Unfortunately none of them are thundery. Pity as they are heading this way.

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Noticed this tweet. Amazing structure for the UK! 

Caught a couple of storms while on the train through Lincolnshire this afternoon. 

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6 minutes ago, Supacell said:

Lots of heavy showers packing into the SW, S Wales and SW Midlands. Unfortunately none of them are thundery. Pity as they are heading this way.

Are we done with Thundery activity in the west for tonight? 

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Posted (edited)

Might have thunderstorms here within the hour - currently debating running up my local 98 meters hill! 

7B7A9D3F-E7E9-49E0-A0DF-3D5E2EF42C10.thumb.png.5b78d1b417f10644e1d06db7c293561c.png

Not UK related...but a tornado/waterspout in Amsterdam this evening!? 👀

 

Edited by Mr Frost

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 10 Aug 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sun 11 Aug 2019

ISSUED 20:01 UTC Fri 09 Aug 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

A vertically-stacked low will drift slowly northeastwards across Scotland during Saturday, the associated cold pool creating an environment with marginally steep mid-level lapse rates, and 600-900 J/kg CAPE in response to diurnal heating. Assuming sufficient cloud breaks occur, scattered heavy showers and a few isolated thunderstorms may develop by the afternoon and early evening hours.

Weak shear will result in "pulse type" convection, with slow storm motion bringing the risk of localised surface water flooding from prolonged downpours. This combined with fairly saturated profiles suggests the lightning potential is quite limited, and many areas within the SLGT will likely remain void of any lightning. A couple of funnel clouds will be possible as low-level vorticity gets stretched upwards by passing updrafts.

Cloud cover is likely to be fairly extensive across Ireland courtesy of several occluded fronts - however, 500-700 J/kg CAPE could develop by the afternoon hours. Low-level convergence along and to the north of the frontal boundary could allow some heavy bursts of showery rain to develop, with some sporadic lightning - although given saturated profiles and weak shear, the coverage of lightning is rather uncertain.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-08-10

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1 hour ago, SnowThunder said:

Annoys me how they only start as a whimper overhead here and only intensify after they've passed 😞

Same here, the ones from the south  or north wales always seem to fizzle before they get here,  yet storms have no problem developing to the north of here and then beefing up more as they push away further still,  this area really does kill them   today is a classic example of what usually happens ,it is very annoying   ,  still I got to hear a whole 2 rumbles ,  yay for that 🙄

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Great videos from Europe, but could they be posted in the European storm discussion thread, please?

Thanks. 🙂

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Enjoyed watching them videos from Amsterdam. Starts off quite strong EF0-EF1... That's a guess!? But actually I think they use the T scale?? 😕 

 

 

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Still seeing lightning directly north around 20 miles. Lighting up the sky.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, AMeltedFlake said:

Are we done with Thundery activity in the west for tonight? 

It depends where in the west you are? If you are south of about Blackpool/Leeds then yes. All the instability has shifted north of here. If you can, could you pop your location in your profile please as it helps in discussion if we know where you are 🙂

Edited by Supacell

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Small storm just passed over😄

 

7A121AA0-CFA0-420E-8FBC-85316E25C42B.jpeg

71A6BDD6-B6BA-4F19-B2AE-4A9F4982B60F.png

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 The last few weeks have really given a strong impression that there is a man-made no lightning zone in a triangle; Heswall-Formby point-Switch Island.  It’s been mad how the last 4 events have gone.  

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Thunderstorms are certainly slow to get going today in the warning area. All quiet so far.

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This storm developed in the late evening almost halfway through my stay.

It developed the The Villages/Ocala and was visible from Haines City, where I stayed.

I sped the video up 5x as I think watching a distant storm with lightning for 19 minutes would be quite boring.

 

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No thunder or lightning here today so far but plenty of convection.

22c, loads of sunshine and torrential downpours galore.

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I am looking closely at tomorrow afternoon mainly for an area from Reading through to east Anglia for thunderstorms. Satellite imagery shows the low that has brought the bad weather over Friday beginning to elongate with a vorticity lobe working its way around it. This lobe should head towards northern France but might encourage some divergence aloft.

Current modelling suggests a number of convergence zones setting up across the south of the UK. At the same time the upper jet begins to move of into the continent. Some modelling suggests the remnants of the  lower level jet may remain over eastern parts. Instability looks meager but lowering cloud bases combined with some low level sheer could produce some localized enhanced conditions. Limiting conditions are upper cloud and weak temperatures which would limit updrafts. Urban heating might just make the difference. Something to watch out for even the modelling suggests very limited possibilities for thunderstorms.

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Scotland and Northern England have done well this year so far. Just goes to show how much you can benefit from a few hundred miles of land to the south, rather than a body of water, i.e. The Channel.

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