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Storms and Convective discussion - 28th July 2019 onwards

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Big dark clouds here, but no rain, they are moving quite fast. Really need rain, spent this afternoon trying to put in extra stakes to help hold up my runner beans and couldn't get them in even with a club hammer!! The ground is so dry as have hardly any rain here in the village for ages. Do you think I will get any tonight where I am, they forecast strong winds and it was quite windy earlier but that has now dropped. Looking on the maps it seems as though the lightning is going to go up the Bristol Channel and miss me.

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Nothing here yet in Padstow but rain is battering caravan windows and the gusts of wind are starting to growl over the roof.

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Lucky you in Padstow, please send that rain up to me, ha ha. We might be lucky with some lightning, if not today perhaps tomorrow.

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Looks like we have lift off just off the tip of Cornwall. 🌩️:oldgood:

043CF62B-7CA1-47A9-98CD-DC583FB65A13.png

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2 minutes ago, Dangerous55019 said:

Looks like we have lift off just off the tip of Cornwall. 🌩️:oldgood:

043CF62B-7CA1-47A9-98CD-DC583FB65A13.png

I spotted that too, I'm no expert but it looks as though it will miss me and make it's way up to you in Wales.

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 Looks promising for me again. We usually do well from this sort of set up. Let’s see. I’ll be up early just in case as it looks like things will kick off from the word go here. 

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Posted (edited)

Estofex have issued a forecast that is interesting. 

image.thumb.png.db71e13bf7d2184977ba2e1d12322ef3.png

Mostly for storm gusts and a very slight possibility of brief tornadoes.

Edited by StormLoser

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Talk over on UKWW that today won't bring 'big storms' and questioning the Metoffice warning. 

All I'll say is that I remember a similar situation when I was in Stockport back in 2011 (I think it was) and believe me if you get stuck under one of those slow moving shower trains you know about it. Regular thunder, torrential rain and hail. Can flash flood the place in minutes.

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Manchester Metar

Probability 40% :

Temporary
from 30 at 10 UTC to 31 at 12 UTC

Visibility: 3000 m

heavy rain showers, thunderstorm, small hail or snow pellets

 

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Liverpool TAF is the same. 

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2 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Talk over on UKWW that today won't bring 'big storms' and questioning the Metoffice warning. 

All I'll say is that I remember a similar situation when I was in Stockport back in 2011 (I think it was) and believe me if you get stuck under one of those slow moving shower trains you know about it. Regular thunder, torrential rain and hail. Can flash flood the place in minutes.

yeah maybe but their warning is of thunderstorms and outbreaks of heavy rain so they haven't put all their eggs in one basket so they covered themselves , convective weather also suggested saturated profiles which will tend to limit lightning potential with an exception of N/NW England and scotland , specific line below

hence conditions will be favourable for a greater coverage of lightning activity over N / NW England, adjacent Irish Sea and perhaps SW Scotland, especially enhanced by both orographic forcing and low-level convergence during the afternoon and evening hours

 

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Lovely unstable skies here this morning, think its going to be an interesting day. Should finish work at 4 and then I can head out! 

IMG_20190730_072828.jpg

IMG_20190730_073225.jpg

IMG_20190730_072834.jpg

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Updated thunderstorm warning extended north and east

03:00 Today 23:59 Today

Thunderstorms bring a chance of flooding in places along with possible travel disruption.

What to expect

  • There is a small chance that homes and businesses could be flooded quickly, with damage to some buildings from floodwater, lightning strikes, hail or strong winds
  • There is a small chance of fast flowing or deep floodwater causing danger to life
  • Where flooding or lightning strikes occur, there is a chance of delays and some cancellations to train and bus services
  • Spray and sudden flooding could lead to difficult driving conditions and some road closures
  • There is a slight chance that power cuts could occur and other services to some homes and businesses could be lost

Reason for update

Warning area expanded further north and east.

Heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue to spread north-east across England and Wales, whilst also increasing in frequency during the day. In a few places there is the potential for 20-30 mm of rain to fall in an hour and 30 to 50 mm of rain to fall in 3 hours. Hail is also possible, mainly over Northern England.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?id=449e1700-3996-4616-a6ce-6bd6adaa86a2&date=2019-07-30&details

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3 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Talk over on UKWW that today won't bring 'big storms' and questioning the Metoffice warning. 

All I'll say is that I remember a similar situation when I was in Stockport back in 2011 (I think it was) and believe me if you get stuck under one of those slow moving shower trains you know about it. Regular thunder, torrential rain and hail. Can flash flood the place in minutes.

Agreed, I completely understand the warning. Up to 50mm of rain (25-30mm in an hour) can cause flooding and with the ground already saturated from the weekend in parts it is unfortunately somewhat inevitable that flooding will occur. A storm also doesn't require frequent lightning to cause disruption, one lightning strike hitting something is all it takes.

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Sferics all around me at the moment, especially to my north

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Posted (edited)

Yet another week of false promises for the south. The north are already getting storms - most annoying thing is that here in the south it’s like every event gets cancelled or changed at the last minute so we end up with nothing, yet nobody can really explain the science behind why.

Every day now it’s just the same old decent opportunity for the midlands and anywhere above that, and a dangled carrot for the south which doesn’t materialise.

Quite frankly just bored of the same repetitive process. All the heat we’ve had and it was all wasted. 22° somewhere near Manchester and it’s all ‘low topped supercells’ and ‘potent electrified showers’

I know it’s just the weather but can’t help feeling it’s just designed to take the Tut.

Tomo will be a rinse and repeat. Ventusky seems to be on drugs at the moment.

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc

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Little bit wary of all these warnings around my location, heavy showers, yes, but storms, not so sure, just preparing myself for a little disappointment, even had some rain yesterday evening which wasn't on the forecast at all.

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Posted (edited)
38 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Yet another week of false promises for the south. The north are already getting storms - most annoying thing is that here in the south it’s like every event gets cancelled or changed at the last minute so we end up with nothing, yet nobody can really explain the science behind why.

I understand the frustration but wasn't it just last Tuesday evening that you were out in an awesome thunderstorm? Whilst the storms did reach here early hours of Wednesday, they had lost some potency in comparison to further south.

I don't want this to go off topic, as really this should be in the no storms section, but just want to point out that storms are on a large scale a bit more geographically balanced than some make out. There will always be regional variation, and the areas that 'do best' seem to move around year on year. For example, our storm capital Lincolnshire has seen quite few storms this year in comparison to some others.

Edited by Supacell

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windy and cruddy. No rain. quite cool. If it thunders i'll let you know.

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Any decent sunny periods will trigger robust thunderstorm activity central to northern England.  

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I don't know what the Central South has to do to get a storm this year (last week excluded when almost the whole country got one)

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 Having some very good insolation here intermittently. Coming up on 20°C. 

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20c with sunshine here. The best CAPE is further north but I am feeling hopeful. Mountain area forecast for the Peak District has a high risk of thunderstorms, not often I have seen that.

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19 minutes ago, Azazel said:

I don't know what the Central South has to do to get a storm this year (last week excluded when almost the whole country got one)

I know. We won't get anything today either. All I can see is lots of rain bands

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Today is going to be very photogenic.  Especially in the gaps where the sun shines on the cells.  Definitely a day for the north I reckon

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