Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Supacell

Storms and Convective discussion - 28th July 2019 onwards

Recommended Posts

10 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

I think anything popping up local to you from now on will be a damp squib...especially after those spectacular thunderstorms in Florida! ? (Really is the perfect place for heat/thunderstorms)

Thanks for sharing all the pictures/videos - fantastic viewing! Brought back memories of my few visits there over the years! 

Thunderstorm warnings again up here for Friday and Saturday - looking at the charts/models this fantastic spell of mayhem should be coming to an end soon after.

734871C4-40BB-4725-83EF-55418689399B.thumb.png.af0137695431b6ffb944b3a484810a16.png5FEC06E1-AF10-40A7-BA94-F9C349751687.thumb.png.d6fabaeacd9446658de3fb2da1d0611f.png

It has been pretty much relentless here since July 31st.

Cheers man. I'll upload all the storms I got in Florida in order on my YouTube channel.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Florida storms are something else, unbelievable viewing entertainment, my ex missus and the kids were traumatised by 1 particular storm, me, I was outside and loving it

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Liverpool TAF not interested in anything thundery tomorrow either with the cold front or post front. It might actually happen then. 

Edited by Chris.R
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Very warm and wet, cant are any X's on the radar but it's very muggy/ humid

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
41 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Liverpool TAF not interested in anything thundery tomorrow either with the cold front or post front. It might actually happen then. 

For the sake of your towel lets hope something happens. I think tomorrow will be all about now casting, sky watching and waiting for the NW region.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have now uploaded the storm on my second full day in Florida.

There was some nice CG lightning in this storm in the distance.

 

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How will this event tonight compare to Tuesday 23rd July? Less chance of storms this evening? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Slim pickings today!

20c and plenty of warm sunshine with a bit of convection in the distance.

DDD93E5E-54EE-4F23-BA9A-905B299A2C55.thumb.jpeg.e9fb3aecb17f79ff96d837de117dda0f.jpeg26A3578E-ACF0-4BE5-8517-619A353B6DF0.thumb.jpeg.cfda7de7749d0268f423baf6fdadc214.jpegC82B2366-8034-45FA-A3F3-A0D7A85A0C9E.thumb.jpeg.294a87bd869109e94caa78fb92e4208c.jpeg

Hoping for some action tomorrow afternoon/night and Saturday afternoon/night - we shall see! 

@zmstorm Brilliant videos mate!

All the best everyone! 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, AMeltedFlake said:

How will this event tonight compare to Tuesday 23rd July? Less chance of storms this evening? 

overall a lot less lightning and more hit-and-miss I suspect

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

 

@zmstorm Brilliant videos mate!

Cheers ? I've got plenty more!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, zmstorm said:

I'm back from Florida.

Just had a look at the chances of anything thundery in Bedford for Thursday night/Friday morning. The chance is there although I'm probably going to sleep through it all because I'm soooo tired.

So jelly of your holiday, looked amazing.

bedford totally missed out while you were away, so I doubt we will get anything ?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Dami said:

So jelly of your holiday, looked amazing.

bedford totally missed out while you were away, so I doubt we will get anything ?

It was a great holiday. Superb.

Some of my friends from my school said that they got a night storm on the 24th July and a morning one like 2 days after that. That's all I've heard.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

D9FD4DCE-573B-4168-9810-8FBCC61EDE80.jpeg

Could you please give credit to Tony Gilbert of UKWeatherworld where you have taken his forecast map from. I'm a moderator on that site and it is inconsiderate to take someone else's efforts and not give credit to. ?

Edited by Weather-history
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Could you please give credit to Tony Gilbert of UKWeatherworld where you have taken his forecast map from. I'm a moderator on that site and it is inconsiderate to take someone else's efforts and not give credit to. ?

Hi very good point - but I actually did on the first post with the lower res graphic and that one was removed

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Was rubbing my hands as this chap started building only for it to fall apart 15 minutes later spitting out a short burst of moderate rain ?

20190808_145536.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, zmstorm said:

It was a great holiday. Superb.

Some of my friends from my school said that they got a night storm on the 24th July and a morning one like 2 days after that. That's all I've heard.

yep we did have a few and I was out in the morning storm at 6:30 (lol) and on the same day we missed a storm by miles but could hear the thunder Would of had one yesterday but they all broke up before they got here, all for a really heavy shower,

Edited by Dami
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, Dami said:

yep we did have a few and I was out in the morning storm at 6:30 (lol) and on the same day we missed a storm by miles but could hear the thunder Would of had one yesterday but they all broke up before they got here, all for a really heavy shower,

Im still fondly reminiscing the one on the 24th July, was the best display in years! Then the one later the next morning was very loud and struck a house in Shortstown! 

Edited by TheToastPeople
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just saw a couple of flickers of lightning to my North looking towards Gloucester direction. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thunder and heavy rain here in Gloucester 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 09 Aug 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sat 10 Aug 2019

ISSUED 21:58 UTC Thu 08 Aug 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

An upper low will swing northeastwards across Ireland on Friday, reaching Scotland by Saturday morning. An occluding frontal system will stretch from Northern Ireland to southern Scotland and northern and eastern England first thing on Friday morning, gradually lifting northwards through the day. Pockets of embedded elevated convection will be possible, although pinpointing exactly where some sporadic lightning may occur is near-impossible and overall is not expected to be too widespread.

 

A wrap-around occlusion will provide for the focus for a band of heavy, showery rain over the Celtic Sea and southern Ireland on Friday morning, encircling the main surface low. This whole system, including band(s) of showers / showery rain, will gradually migrate northeastwards across the whole of Ireland and Irish Sea into Wales, western and northern England and southern Scotland. Some sporadic lightning will be possible in places, but dependent somewhat on sufficient cloud breaks to allow adequate surface heating in-between the showers.

 

Either way, strong steering winds will ensure relatively fast movement of individual showers across England and Wales, although this high momentum may be mixed down to the surface at times in downdrafts to produce some gusty winds. Since a single shower is unlikely to last for long, this will ultimately limit how much rain accumulates - but elements of shower training could occur which may exacerbate existing saturated ground. An isolated tornado will be possible given strong low-level shear.

Over Ireland, the proximity to the upper low will result in more "pulse type" convection given weaker shear and slower storm motion, which brings the risk of localised flooding from prolonged downpours.

 

In-between the early morning frontal rain clearing and the first (of many) wrap-around portions of the occlusion arriving, a window of clearer sky will exist for better diurnal heating across northern England and southern Scotland. Given surface dewpoints of 15-19C (at least for a time early afternoon), up to 1,000 J/kg CAPE will be possible. A strip of dry mid-level air will overlay this warm, moist low-level airmass, creating a rather unstable environment with reasonably steep mid-level lapse rates. If sufficient heating can occur, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms could develop.

The main risk period with a favourable overlap of various ingredients will be 10z-15z, but there could be a second wave of showers/thunderstorms late afternoon lingering well into the evening hours. Given the potential for a couple of waves of shower/thunderstorm activity, a low-end MDT has been issued. Given the sheared environment, a supercell may be possible, capable of producing hail up to 2.0cm in diameter and perhaps an isolated tornado.

Looks like Northern England and Southern Scotland the Places to be again

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-08-09

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2020-08-10 22:17:26 Valid: 11/08/2020 0600 - 12/08/2020 0600 THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK - TUES 11TH AUG 2020 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Severe August Weather: Thunderstorms and Heatwave UK

    Forecast for the UK as the risk of thunderstorms continues, as does the heat. Includes video with Jo Farrow. Read more here

    Jo Farrow
    Jo Farrow
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...