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Storms and Convective discussion - 28th July 2019 onwards


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Had a huge storm yesterday afternoon.

Picture of last nights supercell in Edinburgh taken from portobello beach 

Satellite infra red imagery from the early hours of this morning showed quite a dark core for the low pressure system out in the bay of Biscay. I would take this to show that the low pressure system w

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1 hour ago, dec10snow said:

The warning is there to highlight the risk of thunderstorms, which are outlined to be ‘scattered’ in the warning text. The most recent computer generated forecast doesn’t see any thunderstorms for your location, doesn’t mean you won’t get any. At the same time you may not get any, but if the risk is there and there will be some in the general area, the warning is there to highlight that.

Otherwise they’d be updating the warning area every time a computer forecast comes out... not very practical as a warning system. 

Then the graphics should reflect the risk then as that's the thing people first see. It's poor design perhaps it's my scientific training where I was taught that data must be clearly presented and communicated.   

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13 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Kicking off here! Gourock, Scotland.

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Stunning views Mr Frost,as for here there is not much happening,keeping my eyes on darn sarf.

Edited by Allseasons-si
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LOL Met Office hear my crtiism and change the symbols to reflect the text forecast which is unchanged. It would be funnier if the text forecast had changed to light showers.

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33 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Estofex for tomorrow.

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http://www.estofex.org/

Yeah definitely have seen the potential for tomorrow and it does look pretty like what id expect from Estofex, Deep Layer Shear is best placed over Ireland when I looked this morning. Looking forward to seeing Convective Weathers take on it.

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A small but intense slow moving 'cell' north of Bradford at the moment. Humidity through the roof and rain was pretty intense (and fun to walk through) but no lightning yet. Could produce one or two strikes  I would have thought. 

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 Looks like i’m in a brilliant position for today. Paul on  UKWW has issued a very interesting outlook. Will keep everyone updated. Hopefully I won’t need to throw in the towel early today. 

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1 hour ago, Chris.R said:

 Looks like i’m in a brilliant position for today. Paul on  UKWW has issued a very interesting outlook. Will keep everyone updated. Hopefully I won’t need to throw in the towel early today. 

Sure does look like it unfortunately places Like Derby And Yorkshire who really don't need it also look in the firing line

let's hope those areas miss the worst of it

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I also look to be in a good spot today and areas to my north. The Peak District could be a focal point this afternoon which is really not good for Whaley Bridge. Early signs are promising, taken about an hour ago. Already feeling humid too.

20190804_072645.thumb.jpg.b3f6bf621cf9e1e3ccb787ea1fd4ecf1.jpg

 

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Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 04 Aug 2019 - 05:59 UTC Mon 05 Aug 2019

ISSUED 22:55 UTC Sat 03 Aug 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

Update: Risk zone modified due to the entire British Isles conveniently being nudged approximately 100 miles north by our old friend, the vertically stacked low. Or something.

Heights will gradually fall through Sunday in advance of the approaching upper low over the Atlantic. A shortwave will slide northeastwards across England and Wales, coinciding with peak diurnal heating, while Ireland becomes subject to the cold pool associated wth the large-scale trough axis swinging northeastwards.

A rather complex and messy picture is likely to evolve, with scope for both elevated and surface-based thunderstorm activity possible. In a broad sense, embedded pockets of elevated convection will be possible on Sunday morning over the Irish Sea / Scotland / W Wales, with other pulses developing over northern England during the afternoon - lightning activity is questionable within this timeframe.

However, provided there is sufficient clearance for surface heating of the warm, moist low-level airmass (dewpoints 15-18C) then up to 1,000 J/kg CAPE will be possible in places, with a risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms developing almost anywhere within the Scotland / England / Wales SLGT and MDT zones - particularly late afternoon and into the evening hours. 

The best multi-model agreement on where coverage of thunderstorms may be greater exists over the north Midlands and parts of northern England, and so a tentative MDT has been introduced. The primary hazards will be hail up to 2.0cm in diameter and localised flash flooding, especially given how sensitive the already saturated ground is.

Additional elevated convection (showery rain) may develop over East Anglia / SE England during the evening hours before moving offshore.

Other additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to affect central, western and northern Ireland - especially during the afternoon and early evening, before probably merging into a more dynamic area of showery rain as they exit eastwards to the Irish Sea. Main hazards here will be localised surface water flooding, and perhaps an isolated tornado.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-08-04

IMG_20190804_091254.png

Edited by Another Kent clipper
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15 hours ago, The PIT said:

Then the graphics should reflect the risk then as that's the thing people first see. It's poor design perhaps it's my scientific training where I was taught that data must be clearly presented and communicated.   

I do see where you’re coming from but I feel they’re a bit damned if they do, damned if they don’t. If they had thunderstorm graphics for your location for the duration of the warning it would 100% be wrong. 

In my opinion I feel they’ve got the best of both worlds with the warning, a general warning to highlight the risk, then you’ve got location specific graphics to show what to expect in that exact location hour by hour.

Best of luck for today anyway, I have no chance of anything really so hopefully some others get something decent... Do feel for Whaley Bridge though... 

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UkV & NetW-sr take on rainfall later this afternoon. -sr being the best accuracy of the 2 imo..

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Edited by Polar Maritime
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Fairly benign muggy weather down here in St Issey. Front went through this morning and it's now partially cloudy.

Looking back at Whaley, it's a wet outlook. I have many friends there and three of my children went to the primary school. Ive got pics of the family stood on the walkway directly over the failed area, one could never imagine that the current situation would unfold.

Thursday Friday looks wet and the latter is the day we head back north.

Edited by Had Worse
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