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Storms and Convective discussion - 28th July 2019 onwards

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Just a few spots of rain today but some big clouds floating about at times.

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Saw some decent convection west of Zaragoza, NE Spain this afternoon.

 

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A yellow severe weather warning for thunderstorms has been issued for Sunday afternoon and evening

12:00 Sun 4 22:00 Sun 4

Scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms may cause some transport disruption and flooding on Sunday.

What to expect

  • There is a small chance that homes and businesses could be flooded quickly, with damage to some buildings from floodwater and lightning strikes
  • There is a small chance of fast flowing or deep floodwater causing danger to life
  • Where flooding or lightning strikes occur, there is a chance of delays and some cancellations to train and bus services
  • There is a small chance that some communities become cut off by flooded roads

Scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop across Scotland and northern England during Sunday afternoon into the evening. The nature of showers means that the exact location of where impacts occur is uncertain. However, showers may become slow-moving over some locations and could receive 30-40 mm of rainfall in one or two hours.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings?WT.mc_id=Twitter_Weatherdesk_Enquiries#?date=2019-08-04&id=c2630e6c-d723-4499-ba37-99987987ce0e&details

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  Today's thunderstorm risks look mainly limited to the North East, North Wales, North West Scotland and Cumbria. Storms that do develop could cause some localized flooding.
  Tomorrow looks interesting although instability is limited. Looks like there is an upper level trough swinging across from the south west in the afternoon. Wind speed shear looks light but there is some directional wind shear in the lower levels. There also looks to be a hint of a low level jet (700Hpa) across parts of the south. If the warm air feed from the south and surface temperatures had a little more time to build up then this would almost be a classic thunderstorm set up for the UK. With storms moving North east and a warm air feed from the south then despite the lack of instability and lack of wind speed shear some significant convection is possible. The limiting factors will most likely prevent storms reaching severe level, but worth keeping an eye on.
 Sunday sees another upper level trough although perhaps a little later in the day. There is also a suggestion of cloud cover limiting lower level temperatures in some places. Looks like a repeat of Saturday only a little later and there is more significant moisture pooling at the surface with lightning wizard showing strong surface convergence across the Midlands. Upper level winds look stronger so wind shear is higher along with the risk of mesocyclones.Upper Level divergence will also contribute to convective potential. Too early to put any detail on it but severe storms possibilities are a little higher (Slight).
 More possibilities for storms Tuesday. Key areas look like being south midlands both Saturday and Sunday although upper level support and convergence/ moisture pooling at the surface may not overlap which would limit convective potential.

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@Flash bang flash bang etc Maybe should be in the no storms section as it is a warning for no storms and a lack of convection but it did make me laugh 😂

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some quite active looking cells in the Neath Valleys stretching towards Aberdare 

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There has been a torrential downpour stuck over Dartmoor for the last two hours,it just won't budge from the same spot it started life in.

Worth keeping an eye late Sunday in the SE,local media calling for thunderstorms spreading North from France after a hot and humid day.

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quite an aggressive ray of showers, no lightning from them as yet. but i'm sure there is a chance 

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38 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

There has been a torrential downpour stuck over Dartmoor for the last two hours,it just won't budge from the same spot it started life in.

Worth keeping an eye late Sunday in the SE,local media calling for thunderstorms spreading North from France after a hot and humid day.

Ventusky wipes its bum at the idea of anything other than drying paint, but it’s also gone completely off the rails over the last week so let’s see what happens

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Whats this Thunder symbol over us on Sunday.

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2 hours ago, The PIT said:

Whats this Thunder symbol over us on Sunday.

It's because the storm shield is with me down in Cornwall.

I'm coming back on the 12th so back to boring non electrified showers.

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Local met office forecast has no storms and only light showers tomorrow but then has a warning for storms at the same time. Yet another silly forecast.

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Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 03 Aug 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sun 04 Aug 2019

ISSUED 07:51 UTC Sat 03 Aug 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper ridge over eastern Britain will gradually weaken on Saturday as heights fall aloft in advance of the approaching Atlantic upper low. Diurnal heating may help yield 300-500 J/kg CAPE across western Britain by Saturday afternoon, by which stage profiles will gradually moisten with depth. Low-level convergence and orographic forcing could lead to the development of scattered showers, and perhaps one or two thunderstorms. Profiles exhibit a fairly substantial warm nose between 500-700mb which may restrict convective depth somewhat, and combined with fairly weak shear would suggest the risk of lightning is somewhat limited despite the likelihood of scattered heavy showers. Main focus appears to be over north Wales and NW England, but confidence is not high enough to introduce a SLGT.

Meanwhile, an occlusion moving gradually northwards and eastwards across Ireland, and across the Irish Sea on Saturday night, may contain some embedded elevated convection, although weak instability suggests any lightning activity will be fairly isolated - greatest threat appears to be E / SE Ireland and adjacent sea areas on Saturday evening. Confidence on lightning activity is not particularly high, but a low-end SLGT has been issued to highlight the main area of interest.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-08-03

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I hate it when the met office do this. Sloppy at the best. If the forecast locally isn't for storms removing the warning simples

stupid forecast.jpg

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40 minutes ago, The PIT said:

I hate it when the met office do this. Sloppy at the best. If the forecast locally isn't for storms removing the warning simples

stupid forecast.jpg

Are we not supposed to ignore the computer generated app forecasts and concentrate on those with human input, e.g. the warnings/text forecasts. 

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2 hours ago, bazookabob said:

Are we not supposed to ignore the computer generated app forecasts and concentrate on those with human input, e.g. the warnings/text forecasts. 

Well when you get rubbish like this you haven't much choice. In this day and age forecasts like this shouldn't happen. The text forecast below disagrees with the graphics shown. Another words a mess.

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4 hours ago, The PIT said:

I hate it when the met office do this. Sloppy at the best. If the forecast locally isn't for storms removing the warning simples

stupid forecast.jpg

The warning is there to highlight the risk of thunderstorms, which are outlined to be ‘scattered’ in the warning text. The most recent computer generated forecast doesn’t see any thunderstorms for your location, doesn’t mean you won’t get any. At the same time you may not get any, but if the risk is there and there will be some in the general area, the warning is there to highlight that.

Otherwise they’d be updating the warning area every time a computer forecast comes out... not very practical as a warning system. 

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Ventusky picking up the idea for storms over Lincolnshire tomorrow evening and night night 

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It's getting dark overhead,something is brewing,a cell to my north just popped up out of know where 

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