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Storms and Convective discussion - 28th July 2019 onwards

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1 hour ago, Chris.R said:

 Thinking of throwing in the towel now. Doesn’t feel right anymore. 

Don't throw in the towel, I've been admiring your patience all day.

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6 minutes ago, Jeffers146 said:

I swear Lincoln has a shield around it😂! Hoping for something so bad

 

You weren't in an area with high instability and cooler air aloft. That's why the storm risk was only slight for Lincolnshire. It was always a NW event today, hence the MDT. 

Same reason why the south has had naff all today as well (mostly).

 

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14 minutes ago, Onding said:

You weren't in an area with high instability and cooler air aloft. That's why the storm risk was only slight for Lincolnshire. It was always a NW event today, hence the MDT. 

Same reason why the south has had naff all today as well (mostly).

 

Most storm reports were adamant that the south had a storm risk all today bet its tomorrow and sunday and next Tuesday lol

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2 hours ago, John90 said:

Remember those symbols are model driven. On a day like today showers will show up in slightly different places for each model run and change the symbols depending. It's best not to focus on the symbols and just read the text forecast. 

 

I normally dont follow the odd one but these were on the whole of today. Not one rumble lol. Even the text ones said storms and there were weather  warnings since monday for Herts!

Edited by biddie

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3 minutes ago, biddie said:

I normally dont follow the odd one but these were on the whole of today. Not one rumble lol. Even the text ones said storms and there were weather  warnings since monday for Herts!

The thing to bear in mind about the warnings is that they aren't specifically for lightning, and cover a very large, broad area - their main interest will be the impacts from heavy rain / flooding. Overall the risk of storms has looked highest over northern England today, for the past few days now. 

Apps should always be taken with a pinch of salt in showery conditions as they will struggle to predict showers in the right place at the right time. On top of the showers being in the wrong place, they also then have to work out whether such shower might produce lightning or not - so you can see how quickly they can become 'wrong' in a forecast sense. Days like today it's always best to follow the radar, and if you have a specific interest in lightning then follow and read the forecasts from the various convective forecasters out there.

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Just seen some great footage of classic wall cloud over Northern Yorkshire with some great rotation of the cell on Twitter-I'm clearly living in the wrong area when it comes to the more interesting aspects of stormy weather lol

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13 minutes ago, ajt75 said:

Just seen some great footage of classic wall cloud over Northern Yorkshire with some great rotation of the cell on Twitter-I'm clearly living in the wrong area when it comes to the more interesting aspects of stormy weather lol

Care to share?

 

Also, what happens in the very centre of a swirling low like today's?  Is it just wet and boring or is there some kind of lull in the rain?

Screenshot_20190730-200628.png

Edited by Another Kent clipper

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Here's tomorrow hoping more central/north eastern get a stormy battering  or has that changed from the prior forecasting I wonder. 

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Yet again here in southeast Ayrshire misses out on the action. This cell to the south was close enough to hear a good few rumbles and saw a couple of cg's but it was about 10 miles away over Galloway👎

20190730_185139.jpg

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6 minutes ago, Trouty2u4sure said:

Yet again here in southeast Ayrshire misses out on the action. This cell to the south was close enough to hear a good few rumbles and saw a couple of cg's but it was about 10 miles away over Galloway👎

20190730_185139.jpg

I'm just outside Ayr and could see it passing to my south as well, a few distant rumbles but as usual, never amounted to anything. 

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 31 Jul 2019 - 05:59 UTC Thu 01 Aug 2019

ISSUED 19:50 UTC Tue 30 Jul 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

Vertically-stacked low will drift slowly eastwards from Yorkshire to the North Sea during Wednesday, the associated cold pool aloft (and reasonably steep mid-level lapse rates) combined with diurnal heating to create an environment with up to 1,000 J/kg CAPE across Scotland and northern England.

Showery rain will be ongoing across northern England during the morning, slowly clearing to the North Sea. Scotland on the other hand will be drier, with better prospects for some surface heating in the morning. By the afternoon, areas of low-level wind convergence and orographic forcing will serve as the main mechanism to develop scattered showers and thunderstorms, these persisting until the first half of the evening before gradually decaying as the boundary layer begins to cool. Cloud cover is the main concern that may inhibit deep convection in places, particularly northern England.

Slow storm motion due to weak steering winds will lead to locally prolonged downpours, bringing the risk of flash flooding. Hail up to 1.0cm in diameter is possible, particularly in Scotland where instability will be greatest - and here lightning is likely to be more active than in northern England. However, the lack of any meaningful shear and hence weak organisation of cells suggests storms may become rather outflow-dominant, and hence short-lived (in terms of lightning activity). The odd funnel cloud will also be possible.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-07-31

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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

 

One of my sisters lives here, house flooded and had to move out. Also had lots of hail stones.

Edited by Thundershine

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1 hour ago, Another Kent clipper said:

Care to share?

 

Also, what happens in the very centre of a swirling low like today's?  Is it just wet and boring or is there some kind of lull in the rain?

Screenshot_20190730-200628.png

Lol, yeah, it wasn't super exciting- very low stormy clouds moving at speed, and constant heavy rain pretty much.

It's rained most of the day here, just varying in intensity as bands of precipitation swirled round with the low.

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1 hour ago, rossco89 said:

I'm just outside Ayr and could see it passing to my south as well, a few distant rumbles but as usual, never amounted to anything. 

A 2nd cell tried to fire up behind it but nothing came of it except rain

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1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

 

I do like watching these, but that morning to afternoon section was awesome viewing in the changes of cloud formations. 

thankyou

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5 hours ago, staplehurst said:

The thing to bear in mind about the warnings is that they aren't specifically for lightning, and cover a very large, broad area - their main interest will be the impacts from heavy rain / flooding. Overall the risk of storms has looked highest over northern England today, for the past few days now. 

Apps should always be taken with a pinch of salt in showery conditions as they will struggle to predict showers in the right place at the right time. On top of the showers being in the wrong place, they also then have to work out whether such shower might produce lightning or not - so you can see how quickly they can become 'wrong' in a forecast sense. Days like today it's always best to follow the radar, and if you have a specific interest in lightning then follow and read the forecasts from the various convective forecasters out there.

Generally i find the reports pretty accurate normally snd this was for herts only Not the whole country. It wasn't  just apps the storm warning for the south. It was on everything.

Edited by biddie

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The last few days here in Florida have been absolutely mind-boggling. I almost got hit by lightning 3 times yesterday, and one bolt struck a house less than 100 meters away. The storm yesterday wasn’t a supercell, although the one before yesterday was.

I haven’t bought my laptop with me on holiday because it’s too big, which makes it annoying because I cannot upload the footage until I get home, so I guess I’ll do a little preview.

I also today got a REALLY MASSIVE bolt on video (first video)

The second video is the first 5 seconds of the supercell thunderstorm from 2 days ago.

The third video is the supercell thunderstorm 2 hours later.

Edited by zmstorm

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