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Storms and Convective discussion - 28th July 2019 onwards

Supacell

By Supacell
in Storms & Severe Weather

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Flash bang flash bang etc Veteran

Flash bang flash bang etc

Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
Posted

Got some cumulus bubbling up here today. Nice crispy ones too. Nothing says about any risk here but I guess you can’t completely rule out a rogue rumble or two...

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Arnie Pie Accomplished

Arnie Pie

Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
  • Weather Preferences: Columus Bigus Convectivus
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
Posted
4 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Got some cumulus bubbling up here today. Nice crispy ones too. Nothing says about any risk here but I guess you can’t completely rule out a rogue rumble or two...

 Seems like a bit of withdrawal going on there Flash.....

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Flash bang flash bang etc Veteran

Flash bang flash bang etc

Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
Posted
5 minutes ago, Arnie Pie said:

 Seems like a bit of withdrawal going on there Flash.....

There’s method lol, the risk zone though low is only about 25 miles from us, and it’s lovely and warm outside so I wouldn’t be surprised if we were to at least get a shower this afternoon...

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Arnie Pie Accomplished

Arnie Pie

Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
  • Weather Preferences: Columus Bigus Convectivus
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
Posted

Hope you do flash.....make sure you send em nourthwards....not a cloud in the sky around here

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted
52 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

the risk zone though low is only about 25 miles from us

What risk zone is that?

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Rush2019 Veteran

Rush2019

Posted
  • Location: Macclesfield
  • Location: Macclesfield
Posted

ESTOFEX are back up and running.  When did that happen?  Gone dull and murky in my part of Cheshire, very doubtful for anything convective, doubtful for even a drop of rain.

 

 

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Josh Rubio Community Regular

Josh Rubio

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted

First time I’ve heard this word being used this year. 
“Sunday will have some sunshine but cloud will tend to develop, bringing the chance of showers or even thunderstorms”

Let’s hope it materialises!

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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted (edited)

Good evening. I hope everyone is safe and staying well. This weekend could well produce some of our first proper diurnally homegrown thundery showers of the season, with just about anywhere being in the game, albeit slightly favoured for more central southern and Eastern areas, as possible sea breeze convergence may play a part, with a gradual westerly element taking hold on Saturday. Sunday could be a day of very slow movers as a dartboard upper low zips south. 

So in a nutshell:

Tomorrow - Western and North-western areas including wales is your best chance 

Saturday - Midlands, South-West (Cornish convergence) Central and eastern parts

Sunday - Midlands and Southern England 

 With lockdown in place, it’s a perfect opportunity to simply watch developments from your window or garden if you have one. 

All the best 

EES91

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

 

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NUT Accomplished

NUT

Posted
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
Posted
socialmedialogo.png

6554b6be8c0d829a8bf63ae0c82cf121_link.pn Convective Weather

WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK
Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

A small chance for us up here I suppose

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

Some PPN showing in the SW approaches,don't know if that will amount to anything,keeping tabs on it.

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

The met office prediction PPN has the main focus in Wales/W midlands pushing up into NW England this evening.

MO_Master_W.jpg

6554b6be8c0d829a8bf63ae0c82cf121_link.pn UK weather forecast map - Met Office

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK
Met Office 5 day weather forecast map for UK including weather warnings, temperature, rain, wind speed, cloud, and pressure.

 

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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

Looks good on WRF, 500 J/KG CAPE but temp not quite as warm as forecast currently and insolation not as strong as I would like

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svrwx Newbie

svrwx

Posted
Posted

Yes, if you have access you can see that's coming from the UKV.  

Tomorrow looking a touch better on today.  Subtle mid-level shortwave crossing the country through the afternoon and into the evening, which combined with light, converging low-level winds and diurnal max looks to support a break out of isolated to scattered heavy showers from late afternoon (as per recent mesoscale outputs), with the possibility of a few brief, weak storms with maximising of instability.  A broad risk area (southern UK generally), though where winds converge and moisture pools the better chance of something firing. 

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Dreckly Experienced

Dreckly

Posted
  • Location: North Cornwall 187ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic Storms, Thunder & Lightning, Snow.
  • Location: North Cornwall 187ft asl
Posted

 

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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

only risk for nw eng Is today though, cold tomorrow with wind off the sea and a bit too far north on Sunday.

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Thunder and Lightning Aficionado

Thunder and Lightning

Posted
  • Location: NW London
  • Weather Preferences: Convective Weather and Snow
  • Location: NW London
Posted

One look at the UKV for Sunday and the word 'thunderstorm' pops into my head. I thought Saturday would have the main action but with that low pressure moving into Wales, and up to 800 j/kg of CAPE, Sunday looks like it will be the better day.

Screenshot 2020-04-10 at 14.58.13.png

Screenshot 2020-04-10 at 14.58.44.png

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Dangerous55019 Seasoned

Dangerous55019

Posted
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Foggy autumn days are the best! Although I does enjoy a good thunderstorm.
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
Posted

Good afternoon everyone, I hope you’re all managing to stay safe in these strange times. :oldsmile:

Well being as we’re all stuck at home, it’s nice to see some true and strong convection starting to get going over towards the Clwydian Range. :oldgrin:

I don’t think that anything will kick off around here today unfortunately... But it’s still nice to see. :oldsmile:

Also I’ve had to slightly tweak these photos because the sky is very hazy and milky. 

920A07BB-A079-45D7-AA43-ABC2AAA55F0F.jpeg

393E290B-E7E9-4009-AA96-381049767BB2.jpeg

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Dami Maestro

Dami

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy and thundery.
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
Posted
14 minutes ago, Dangerous55019 said:

Good afternoon everyone, I hope you’re all managing to stay safe in these strange times. :oldsmile:

Well being as we’re all stuck at home, it’s nice to see some true and strong convection starting to get going over towards the Clwydian Range. :oldgrin:

I don’t think that anything will kick off around here today unfortunately... But it’s still nice to see. :oldsmile:

Also I’ve had to slightly tweak these photos because the sky is very hazy and milky. 

920A07BB-A079-45D7-AA43-ABC2AAA55F0F.jpeg

393E290B-E7E9-4009-AA96-381049767BB2.jpeg

lovely pics! hope you are ok too! 

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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

It’s now 22.0°C so the projected CAPE should be realised. If anything is going to happen then it should start in the next hour and a half.

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Dangerous55019 Seasoned

Dangerous55019

Posted
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Foggy autumn days are the best! Although I does enjoy a good thunderstorm.
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
Posted

Something starting to kick off? :oldgrin:

Not an app I normally use so I’m a bit doubtful.

D2C39335-E3E9-42BE-8A3E-9D2BE447F11A.png

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Dangerous55019 Seasoned

Dangerous55019

Posted
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Foggy autumn days are the best! Although I does enjoy a good thunderstorm.
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
Posted
29 minutes ago, Dami said:

lovely pics! hope you are ok too! 

Hiya @Dami :oldsmile:

I’m not to bad... I hope you and yours are staying safe and well. :oldsmile:

Whilst I didn’t hold much hope earlier for things kicking off, it’s starting to looks much more promising around here now. ?️:oldgrin:

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Rush2019 Veteran

Rush2019

Posted
  • Location: Macclesfield
  • Location: Macclesfield
Posted
1 minute ago, Dangerous55019 said:

Something starting to kick off? :oldgrin:

Not an app I normally use so I’m a bit doubtful.

D2C39335-E3E9-42BE-8A3E-9D2BE447F11A.png

Two strikes noted on Blitzortung, south of llanwrst, and one to the west towards  Ruthin.  Random strikes, looks like they are social distancing too.

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