Storms and Convective discussion - 28th July 2019 onwards

[Chris Lea-Alex]

1 hour ago, Zak M said:

...after a very humid day with 27c+ temperatures and getting woken up at about 2am to the most spectacular night time lightning...

 

That's what I'm talking about! Hopefully this coronavirus stuff will be done in time

Edited March 28, 2020 by Chris Lea-Alex

[Summer Sun]

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 29 Mar 2020 - 05:59 UTC Mon 30 Mar 2020

ISSUED 18:17 UTC Sat 28 Mar 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

A shortwave rounding the southeast side of a strong Atlantic anticyclone will deepen the boundary layer for a time to allow more in the way of convection/showers on Sunday, more especially across East Anglia, SE England and the English Channel. While the depth of convection will still be restricted, given ELTs down to -15C and a couple hundred J/kg CAPE an odd isolated lightning strike cannot be ruled out.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-03-29

[Atmogenic]

Although not a storm I've just had a heavy hail shower just a few mins ago and how quickly it turned the outside in a little bit of a white snow land was fun to watch.

update: just had another one, seems to be one of those days with the weather being on and off

Edited March 29, 2020 by Atmogenic

[Rush2019]

ESTOFEX have no valid storm forecasts available, last forecast was 24/25th March.  Has this service been temporary suspended due to the current global crisis?  Am I having a mushy pea brain moment and missing something?  Can anyone shed any lightning on the matter.  Pun intended.  Thank you.

[Zak M]

37 minutes ago, Atmogenic said:

Although not a storm I've just had a heavy hail shower just a few mins ago and how quickly it turned the outside in a little bit of a white snow land was fun to watch.

update: just had another one, seems to be one of those days with the weather being on and off

Had a hail shower last night.

[Chris Lea-Alex]

@Rush2112

I believe Estofex are volunteers so maybe they're not doing as a 'work from home' job

[Rush2019]

19 hours ago, Chris Lea-Alex said:

@Rush2112

I believe Estofex are volunteers so maybe they're not doing as a 'work from home' job

Thanks for your reply, I wondered also if it could be the lack of flight data.

[Timmytour]

Is anyone aware of a damaging hailstorm taking place recently that caused damage to aircraft? Been told some American Airline planes were damaged but can't find anything in the news

Edited March 31, 2020 by Timmytour

[Summer Sun]

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 01 Apr 2020 - 05:59 UTC Thu 02 Apr 2020

ISSUED 21:00 UTC Tue 31 Mar 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

On Wednesday night, increasingly cold air aloft in a highly-sheared environment will yield deep convection across the Northern Isles and environs. As such, a few sporadic lightning strikes will be possible, especially during the early hours of Thursday.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-04-01

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 02 Apr 2020 - 05:59 UTC Fri 03 Apr 2020

ISSUED 20:32 UTC Wed 01 Apr 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Cold air aloft overspreading northern Scotland on Thursday will steepen mid-level lapse rates and generate a few hundred J/kg CAPE. Numerous showers will affect the area at times, occasionally organised into more distinct bands, and may produce a few sporadic lightning strikes.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-04-02

 

[Zak M]

Thunderstorms breaking out on Wednesday and Thursday perhaps?

[Mapantz]

I very much doubt it. Very little CAPE amongst other things. Maybe a few showers popping up along any CZ's

 

[Zak M]

1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

I very much doubt it. Very little CAPE amongst other things. Maybe a few showers popping up along any CZ's

 

Aaargghhhh, was hoping for something thundery in this warm spell but now it has amounted to this. I need my storms 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

2 hours ago, Zak M said:

Aaargghhhh, was hoping for something thundery in this warm spell but now it has amounted to this. I need my storms 

I wouldn’t be so quick to rule it out for down your way, keep an eye of the wrf eu 

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

---

Meteociel propose de manière régulière le modèle à maille fine de WRF-NMM 0.05x0.05° (5km) sur 5 zones (France, Nord-Ouest, Nord-Est, Sud-Ouest, Sud-Est) et l'Italie...

Then the shorter range wrf models if / when it gets into shorter time frames that is the model I use most for thundery stuff could be the type of setup to look for possible convergence zones too. 

[Thunder and Lightning]

Im not sure how much to take from this, but a few models seem to be holding at least some potential for this week, with a a few 100 j/kg of CAPE, especially on Wednesday. 

Edited April 7, 2020 by Thunder and Lightning

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 08 Apr 2020 - 05:59 UTC Thu 09 Apr 2020

ISSUED 20:19 UTC Tue 07 Apr 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Advection of a warm, moist airmass will occur into southern and central Britain on Wednesday, beneath a decaying upper trough. Weak elevated instability will be present initially, riding above the warm nose at ~950mb, with a few high-based showers possible over the English Channel and southern England on Wednesday morning. Surface heating with dewpoints of 11-13C combined with low-level convergence may result in a few isolated, locally heavy showers developing during the late-afternoon to mid-evening period. Given marginal CAPE, weak shear and cloud tops restricted to around 13,000ft (-15C), the risk of lightning is rather low (but non-zero).

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2020-04-08

[Thunder and Lightning]

Does anyone think there is at least some potential for a few thunderstorms on Saturday? 

The MetO forecast surface pressure charts shows a trough extending from the SW up to NW England. There looks to be warm air moving up from Europe, bringing fairly warm temperatures,widespread 11-14 dew points and some CAPE. The Netweather Medium range model shows showers and thunderstorms across England. I know I should not take this seriously as it is still quite far out, but still something to look forward to if it does materialise! 

 

 

Edited April 8, 2020 by Thunder and Lightning

[Zak M]

6 minutes ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

Does anyone think there is at least some potential for a few thunderstorms on Saturday? 

The MetO forecast surface pressure charts shows a trough extending from the SW up to NW England. There looks to be warm air moving up from Europe, bringing fairly warm temperatures,widespread 11-14 dew points and some CAPE. The Netweather Medium range model shows showers and thunderstorms across England. I know I should not take this seriously as it is still quite far out, but still something to look forward to if it does materialise! 

 

 

Yes, there could be some on Sunday too. 

To be honest, 4 days out in my opinion isn't too far out, so it is currently looking good for both of those days.

[Paul]

12 minutes ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

Does anyone think there is at least some potential for a few thunderstorms on Saturday? 

The MetO forecast surface pressure charts shows a trough extending from the SW up to NW England. There looks to be warm air moving up from Europe, bringing fairly warm temperatures,widespread 11-14 dew points and some CAPE. The Netweather Medium range model shows showers and thunderstorms across England. I know I should not take this seriously as it is still quite far out, but still something to look forward to if it does materialise! 

The UKV is quite keen on the idea right now.

 

Enough CAPE

 

Some high cloud tops. 

Long way off of course, but it's been a while, so nice to see...

[NUT]

Maybe the easter weekend might be more interesting than imagined storm wise..............hm

[Thunder and Lightning]

2 minutes ago, NUT said:

Maybe the easter weekend might be more interesting than imagined storm wise..............hm

Its not just here. The US could see a big severe weather outbreak!

[Thunder and Lightning]

6 minutes ago, Paul said:

The UKV is quite keen on the idea right now.

 

Enough CAPE

 

Some high cloud tops. 

Long way off of course, but it's been a while, so nice to see...

Sounds good! Always nice to see the UKV hopping into action!

[Josh Rubio]

I’m no expert but it looks like Saturday could see some thundery showers popping up just about anywhere?

[Thunder and Lightning]

2 minutes ago, Josh Rubio said:

I’m no expert but it looks like Saturday could see some thundery showers popping up just about anywhere?

That is probably right! I think that Central, Southern and Eastern parts are more likely to see thundery showers but anywhere probably has a chance.

[Zak M]

Windy.com is showing something for Sunday